Article: What if the Red Sox Are Done Adding?

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If they don't sign a half-decent reliever with some of that cash, it'll be malfeasance of the highest order...again. 

I’ve been posting Kyle Finnegan’s agent’s phone number.  Not sure what else I can do…

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Kids or die, huh?

Grichuk is a better OF than Refsnyder, which is all he needs here.  Laureano has a .802 career OPS vs LHP and had a .869 last year.  He hits LHP.  I prefer him over Gruchuk, but to date, Breslow has gone the other direction.

None of this blocks Anthony.  All of it gives them some depth in case things go wrong.  The real cost is someone like Shugart, Murphy, Romy or Sogard would need to be DFAd.  Or they could skip to the inevitable and DFA Justin Wilson already…

Now that's just mean about our new pitching lab project Justin Wilson...   

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

Kids or die, huh?

Grichuk is a better OF than Refsnyder, which is all he needs here.  Laureano has a .802 career OPS vs LHP and had a .869 last year.  He hits LHP.  I prefer him over Gruchuk, but to date, Breslow has gone the other direction.

None of this blocks Anthony.  All of it gives them some depth in case things go wrong.  The real cost is someone like Shugart, Murphy, Romy or Sogard would need to be DFAd.  Or they could skip to the inevitable and DFA Justin Wilson already…

You can only have 13 guys up at one time. Most of which can't be optioned back to AAA. If Anthony is called up, who is being moved off the BOS roster: Rafaela, Duran, Refsnyder, Masa, Abreu or RHB acquisiton? They wouldn't carry a 7th OF/DH guy. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

56 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well played, but still, the more I think about it, the more I think it's kind of funny we're brushing off the loss of O'Neill.  Our offense wasn't very good, it was horrible late in the season even with Casas and Story back, we subtracted our #2 OPS guy and added nothing...where the heck is the improvement going to come from?

It's all on the kids, like I say.  

The Sox didn't want to deal again with O'Neill's horrendous K-rate.

They also know rookies never have any issues striking out trying to make contact with the best pitchers in the world (who share all their secrets on batter weaknesses on Whiff Wok).

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Now that's just mean about our new pitching lab project Justin Wilson...   

MLB can be a cruel, cruel place…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

You can only have 13 guys up at one time. Most of which can't be optioned back to AAA. If Anthony is called up, who is being moved off the BOS roster: Rafaela, Duran, Refsnyder, Masa, Abreu or RHB acquisiton? They wouldn't carry a 7th OF/DH guy. 

It’s one of those issues that most likely solves itself in time.  Either someone isn’t performing and gets demoted/released or someone gets hurt and creates that opening.

I assume that when Anthony does get called up, it will be initiated by a need or a roster vacancy, and not just by a calendar date…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s one of those issues that most likely solves itself in time.  Either someone isn’t performing and gets demoted/released or someone gets hurt and creates that opening.

I assume that when Anthony does get called up, it will be initiated by a need or a roster vacancy, and not just by a calendar date…

If he's really the best player in MiLB and ready, he should be up on Opening Day. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't believe a RHB is really all that necessary with Story coming back and Campbell being added into the mix. Also, Devers and Casas don't have platoon issues. 

Furthermore, here are the park factors for Fenway:

RHB: 104 park factor, 108 runs

LHB: 110 park factor, 121 runs

Fenway favors left handed batters!

Another significant plus ve LHPs could be a full and healthy season from Casas and Devers. Both are LHPs who hit lefties well over their careers, but who were hurt, playing hurt or did poorly vs LHPs in 2024.

Career:

Casas .772 v L/.846 v R (only 61 PAs v L in '24)

Devers .739 v L/.910 v R (.686 v L in '24)

Yes, the return of RHB Story and possible call-up of RHB Campbell and a goos split LHB Anthony could also help.

We will need to find a way (platoon w Yoshi at DH?) for Ref (.941 v L) vs every LH'd SP'er.

We could also make sure Wong plays vs all LH'd SP'ers (.877). I'm not sure if Romy's .879 OPS v L warrants a full platoon role at 2B w DHam.

There are various ways we can work some useful platoons into some positions:

DH: Yoshida v R/ Ref v L

OF: LF Duran v R/Ref v L, CF Rafaela (equal splits) v R/Duran v L

OF: LF Duran, CF Anthony v R/Rafaela v L, RF Abreu v R, Anthony v L

2B: DHam v R, Romy or Grissom v L

or go wild with...

1B/DH Casas & Devers and 3B: Campbell vs R, Romy or Grissom v L and 2B DHam v R and Campbell v L

 

 

[Caleb Kohn]

On 1/1/2025 at 8:09 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Good piece, Caleb.  And I agree, they still don't seem to be making their best effort, for reasons only they are privy to. 

Thank you, I appreciate it. I am not sure why the song and dance from Sam that we are going to spend and then they don't. Maybe that was just to drive prices up, or maybe they just keep getting beat my more desperate teams. Whatever the hangup, its getting old. 

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If he's really the best player in MiLB and ready, he should be up on Opening Day. 

Then he goes to LF, Duran to CF, and Rafaela to RF weakside platoon/super utility…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Caleb Kohn said:

Thank you, I appreciate it. I am not sure why the song and dance from Sam that we are going to spend and then they don't. Maybe that was just to drive prices up, or maybe they just keep getting beat my more desperate teams. Whatever the hangup, its getting old. 

There’s also the possibility some of it was media fabrications and the Sox were never in at all on Players X, Y, and/or Z.  Not necessarily any better, however…

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s also the possibility some of it was media fabrications and the Sox were never in at all on Players X, Y, and/or Z.  Not necessarily any better, however…

But who would be fabricating, and if there is fabricating, why wouldn't the Sox get it out there that it was inaccurate?  If they're not really the Interest Kings, why are they letting the Interest Kings image run wild like this?

  

[Caleb Kohn]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s also the possibility some of it was media fabrications and the Sox were never in at all on Players X, Y, and/or Z.  Not necessarily any better, however…

I highly doubt it was just media fabrications. These people make a living reporting whatever facts they can come by, They aren't about to just throw away their credibility. I think its far more likely that the Red Sox had a valuation for certain players that they were not willing to push past. The Yankees may have been dumb to go for the 8th year on Max Fried, but it got the deal over the finish line. I think Boston was willing to spend, as Sam Kennedy said, but they aren't willing to get uncomfortable to do so, and in this market, that is what it is going to take to get a deal done. 

[Caleb Kohn]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But who would be fabricating, and if there is fabricating, why wouldn't the Sox get it out there that it was inaccurate?  If they're not really the Interest Kings, why are they letting the Interest Kings image run wild like this?

  

I think there are real leaks. Whoever let it out that the FO has disagreements about signing Bregman should not be a part of the team, as that seriously undermines negotiations. I don't think the interest is fabricated though. Of course the Red Sox are interested in bringing in the best players, just not at current market value. 

[Zippo102]

32 minutes ago, Caleb Kohn said:

I highly doubt it was just media fabrications. These people make a living reporting whatever facts they can come by, They aren't about to just throw away their credibility. I think its far more likely that the Red Sox had a valuation for certain players that they were not willing to push past. The Yankees may have been dumb to go for the 8th year on Max Fried, but it got the deal over the finish line. I think Boston was willing to spend, as Sam Kennedy said, but they aren't willing to get uncomfortable to do so, and in this market, that is what it is going to take to get a deal done. 

I think you hit the nail on the head Caleb. In today's market, when every player is overpriced, the Sox are not willing to get uncomfortable. They are completely out of touch with the current landscape of what takes to get these deals done or they just don't care. I believe it is the latter. There is no excuse for this. I bought into the crap they threw out there last year that they were waiting for the young kids to be ready and then they will spend. What they have done so far this year is the exact opposite. They traded away 2 of our best prospects, I think Montgomery is going to be special, and they haven't spent any money.  So, it will be another year for me without baseball. Haven't been to a game or watched a game on NESN for two years. I refuse to put more money in Henry's pocket.

[Caleb Kohn]

I guess its possible that they are waiting to see how Campbell and Anthony play at the big league level, as there is a decent chance when they get called up this year they will struggle. As much as I want them to spend too, 2026 may be the better time to do it when position player needs may be more clear. There is no excuse to not spending a little more on pitching right now. I like the potential bounce-back potential in the rotation, but I would really like to see us sign/ trade for a healthy, reliable starter. Doesn't have to be a number 1, but someone else we could count on who didn't have an ERA over 5.00 last year. 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Caleb Kohn said:

I guess its possible that they are waiting to see how Campbell and Anthony play at the big league level, as there is a decent chance when they get called up this year they will struggle. As much as I want them to spend too, 2026 may be the better time to do it when position player needs may be more clear. There is no excuse to not spending a little more on pitching right now. I like the potential bounce-back potential in the rotation, but I would really like to see us sign/ trade for a healthy, reliable starter. Doesn't have to be a number 1, but someone else we could count on who didn't have an ERA over 5.00 last year. 

 

We can still add pieces that will not block Anthony or Campbell (and Mayer, too.)

Our pen is very sketchy, despite the decent depth we seem to have. We should be able to spend on Tanner Scott or go cheaper on someone like Estevez, Yates or Finnegan. We don't have options issues with many of our better pen arms, so we won't be messing that up by pushing a pitcher or two to AAA to start the season.

Signing Bregman could eventually block Campbell or Mayer, if they would have one day been pushed to 3B, but with Story's health issues and guys like DHam, Grissom and Romy at 2B, there is room for one, there.

Anthony should not be blocked in the OG, unless Rafaela learns to hit, well. Even then, we can platoong Rafaela & Abreu and hand Anthony a FT job, if he earns it. (He could play FT CF or RF or play CF v R and RF v L, as Abreu and Rafaela platoon at different OF slots.

We could also add a catcher without blocking anyone, since Teel is gone, now.

We CAN and SHOULD do certain things that don't mess with any plans for prospect promotions.

If we end up with a bottleneck, we can trade for the remaining weakest spot need.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Caleb Kohn said:

I highly doubt it was just media fabrications. These people make a living reporting whatever facts they can come by, They aren't about to just throw away their credibility. I think it’s far more likely that the Red Sox had a valuation for certain players that they were not willing to push past. The Yankees may have been dumb to go for the 8th year on Max Fried, but it got the deal over the finish line. I think Boston was willing to spend, as Sam Kennedy said, but they aren't willing to get uncomfortable to do so, and in this market, that is what it is going to take to get a deal done. 

There are so many sources these days, and not all of them are reliable. And even if the media tries to be diligent and honest and maintain credibility, do the agents have similar values?

Maybe media fabrications is a misnomer here, but it’s always possible someone is creating rumors.  There  have been literally hundreds of instances of Team A being “interested in” some free agent, only to have the team or player deny it later.  

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But who would be fabricating, and if there is fabricating, why wouldn't the Sox get it out there that it was inaccurate?  If they're not really the Interest Kings, why are they letting the Interest Kings image run wild like this?

  

I’m sure stories get misreported through honesty, agents drop names to create false interest, and even routine due diligence gets exaggerated in order to keep other parties engaged.  And not just with the Red Sox.

We’ve seen this before.  Agents try to exaggerate teams and dollars to get the best deal.  Reporters do what they can to struggle and keep stories straight.  And some bloggers just add players to team to get hits on their website, but it gets taken seriously by just one guy, and next thing you know, it’s all over Sons of Sam Horn and SAWXHEADS.

The Sox sometimes do try to straighten out these rumors, but whats really in it for them? Nicer commentary on web forums?  Not sure why they’d care…

[moonslav59]

You also hear GMs deny rumors and then do just what the rumors said.

[Bellhorn04]

12 hours ago, notin said:

I’m sure stories get misreported through honesty, agents drop names to create false interest, and even routine due diligence gets exaggerated in order to keep other parties engaged.  And not just with the Red Sox.

We’ve seen this before.  Agents try to exaggerate teams and dollars to get the best deal.  Reporters do what they can to struggle and keep stories straight.  And some bloggers just add players to team to get hits on their website, but it gets taken seriously by just one guy, and next thing you know, it’s all over Sons of Sam Horn and SAWXHEADS.

The Sox sometimes do try to straighten out these rumors, but whats really in it for them? Nicer commentary on web forums?  Not sure why they’d care…

So what exactly is your theory for the Sox commanding lead on the We Tried Tracker?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/introducing-the-we-tried-tracker/

[Larry Cook]

If we start the year with no additions, 

the following players on our 40 man roster probably start the season on the 60 day DL

whitlock, Sandoval, giolito, Murphy, and yoshida! 

catchers are wong and narveaz 

infielders are casas, Campbell, romy, Hamilton, Grissom, story, devers, 

outfielders are Duran, rafeala, abreau, and refsynder 

rotation is houck, crochet, beuhler, bello and Crawford 

Multi inning bullpen arms wincowski, Criswell 

Low leverage situation arms are  Wilson, Bernardino and weissert

high leverage situation arms are Hendricks, Chapman, and slaten 

Assuming Whitlock yoshida and giolito return mid season, this team is probably very close to a playoff team. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

If we start the year with no additions, 

the following players on our 40 man roster probably start the season on the 60 day DL

whitlock, Sandoval, giolito, Murphy, and yoshida! 

catchers are wong and narveaz 

infielders are casas, Campbell, romy, Hamilton, Grissom, story, devers, 

outfielders are Duran, rafeala, abreau, and refsynder 

rotation is houck, crochet, beuhler, bello and Crawford 

Multi inning bullpen arms wincowski, Criswell 

Low leverage situation arms are  Wilson, Bernardino and weissert

high leverage situation arms are Hendricks, Chapman, and slaten 

Assuming Whitlock yoshida and giolito return mid season, this team is probably very close to a playoff team. 

They need a bunch of stuff to go right.  Sound familiar?

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/2/2025 at 6:52 AM, mvp 78 said:

They acquired Duvall at the end of January. There's 6 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. I think there's time for the roster to shake out a bit. If we follow the rules set by this post and there aren't any more adds, I'm not sure I'm super concerned. I'd be mostly concerned about the catching situation honestly. 

i am sure Breslow is hunting for a RHB who will take a 1 yr deal.  Grichuk fills that role

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If we start the year with no additions, 

the following players on our 40 man roster probably start the season on the 60 day DL

whitlock, Sandoval, giolito, Murphy, and yoshida! 

catchers are wong and narveaz 

infielders are casas, Campbell, romy, Hamilton, Grissom, story, devers, 

outfielders are Duran, rafeala, abreau, and refsynder 

rotation is houck, crochet, beuhler, bello and Crawford 

Multi inning bullpen arms wincowski, Criswell 

Low leverage situation arms are  Wilson, Bernardino and weissert

high leverage situation arms are Hendricks, Chapman, and slaten 

Assuming Whitlock yoshida and giolito return mid season, this team is probably very close to a playoff team. 

Unless there is a setback, Giolito will be taking the ball in ST'ing and will be ready to pitch the 4th or 5th game of the 2025 season. He will not start the year on the 60 day IL. (Maybe the 15.)

Whiltock is working out with Gio, and Gio says he is near his readiness, but I'd guess May 1st on Whit, and not the 60 day, but he's a close call.

Yoshida should not need the 60 day IL, but might start out on the 15 that lasts 25-40 days.

Murphy doesn't matter.

Sandoval will surely be placed on the 60 day, once the season starts. The big Q, to me, is who do we add, the day we place him on the 60?

Fulmer? I Campbell? Zavala?

or....

Campbell, Anthony or Mayer? (I think we wait on these three, until they gain a year of control.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They need a bunch of stuff to go right.  Sound familiar?

I agree, and last year, I think I came up with a list of 30-35 "what ifs" or "if this goes right" scenarios and said that we didn't need all to go right but maybe half or two-thirds. 

We probably have close to that again, but to me, maybe they don't seem so far-fetched. A few what ifs look a lot better, this year, than last, especially Houck and Duran.

Here is a rough list, as of now...

Just stay healthy: Story, Casas, Devers, Buehler, Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks, Yoshida and Sandoval (July-Aug?)

Just don't decline: Crochet, Houck, Duran, Chapman, Slaten, Ref, DHam, Abreu (maybe get better v LHPs) and those on the "stay healthy list could be here, too. (guys like Gio, Buehler and Hendriks have more than just injury questions.)

The more specific questionables:

Crawford- get the HRs under control (He seemed to answer the IP question in '24.)

Bello- did not improve in 2024, but still has a lot of potential, IMO.

Winckowski- seems like a bit of a wildcard.

Criswell- was 2024 a fluke?

Priester, Fitts & Dobbins- we may just need 1 to do well, maybe two.

Guerrero, Kelly, Weissert, Bernardino, Penrod & Shugart- all on the 40 and have some level of promise or decent ceilings. We might need a few of these guys to rise up and do well. We may not have the luxury of cycling through 3-4 of these guys doing poorly, before we find one or two that do well.

Fulmer, I Campbell, Mata, A Adames, Gambrell, Drohan and others are not on the 40, but may be added, if injuries or DFAs occur.

Wong- improve the D, dude! (He seemed to answer the O questions in '24.)

Grissom- more questions now than last winter.

Rafaela (no SS, please)- needs to improve on O and stop making easy out errors

Narvaez- Looks good on D, so I've been told, but is he a true MLB catcher, yet?

Romy- may not be needed to improve or stay the same.

Anthony, Campbell & Mayer are all very promising but unknowns.

Sogard & Jh Garcia (on the 40) and Zavala, Eaton and Hickey (not on the 40) could be used, at some point.

 

 

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i am sure Breslow is hunting for a RHB who will take a 1 yr deal.  Grichuk fills that role

Maybe. I just don’t see the need when Refsnyder exists.

[Larry Cook]

Assuming bres-slow is done adding for the offseason, what assets can we unload at the trade deadline if things go south???

giolito, Wilson, Chapman, refsynder, beuhler????

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Assuming bres-slow is done adding for the offseason, what assets can we unload at the trade deadline if things go south???

giolito, Wilson, Chapman, refsynder, beuhler????

Those are all the one year guys with Hendriks having an option for '26. Whitlock is out of our control after 2016.

Not many of these will bring back something great, unless they are having a great season.

I think it might be too early to think about this.

[Hitch]

On the topic of adding, I've ben thinking this a lot over the holidays, doesn't this feel like a pretty bad FA year? 

Take away the starting pitching in which we've improved so done our bot without giving out 8 year contracts, and Soto on which we tried, but ultimately had no chance with, you're left with Teoscar as an exciting option. Mostly everyone else I would not want to be giving out long term contracts with the exception of on or two of the relivers. And even then I'm not overly in favour of doing it. 

 

The position players in particular were a poor bunch.