Article: BREAKING: Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler To One-Year Contract

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And any attempt at discussing him at the back end of the bullpen would be a non-closer.

7th/8th inning guy EVENTUALLY. I think they are going to really ease him back in. 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How many pitchers can they reasonably stretch out in the spring? Right now, there are 12 starters and near starters if you include Fulmer. 

As I've said before, the depth isn't my concern, it's the TOP of the rotation. They have enough 4/5's to get them through the next 3-4 years IMO. 

I don't know, but I still won't be surprised if they stretch him out.  Not that I think it will happen but I kind of want it to now. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't know, but I still won't be surprised if they stretch him out.  Not that I think it will happen but I kind of want it to now. 

Whitlock to the Chase Anderson role confirmed. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Whitlock to the Chase Anderson role confirmed. 

Look, I realize Cora hinted he will be in the pen, I think it's fairly obviously that's where his role where be.  I just don't think it's completely improbable he's stretched out. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Look, I realize Cora hinted he will be in the pen, I think it's fairly obviously that's where his role where be.  I just don't think it's completely improbable he's stretched out. 

"Not completely improbable" - I like this one.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Not completely improbable" - I like this one.

Adding it to the glossary.

[Hugh2]

What are we even arguing over here.  

Is everyone really going to be shocked if Whitlock comes to camp, a few guys go down before spring training, and they decide to stretch him out?  We can argue semantics all day, but all i'm trying to say is that shouldn't shock anyone. 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

What are we even arguing over here.  

Is everyone really going to be shocked if Whitlock comes to camp, a few guys go down before spring training, and they decide to stretch him out?  We can argue semantics all day, but all i'm trying to say is that shouldn't shock anyone. 

Just for the sake of having a stance, I'm going to say they commit to him staying in the bullpen.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

What are we even arguing over here.  

Is everyone really going to be shocked if Whitlock comes to camp, a few guys go down before spring training, and they decide to stretch him out?  We can argue semantics all day, but all i'm trying to say is that shouldn't shock anyone. 

I mean, that's the foundation of what we do here. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

What are we even arguing over here.  

Is everyone really going to be shocked if Whitlock comes to camp, a few guys go down before spring training, and they decide to stretch him out?  We can argue semantics all day, but all i'm trying to say is that shouldn't shock anyone. 

Does anyone even know if he’ll be ready to start the season. I read one report that said Whit, and Gio will most likely start the year on the IL.

[Hugh2]

59 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Just for the sake of having a stance, I'm going to say they commit to him staying in the bullpen.

I do too, I'm not sure why anyone would want to die on the hill that he's going to start, but.......you guys know what I'm going to say. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Does anyone even know if he’ll be ready to start the season. I read one report that said Whit, and Gio will most likely start the year on the IL.

Everything I've seen recently has them ready to pitch during spring training. 

We both know that can change. 

[Old Red]

45 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Everything I've seen recently has them ready to pitch during spring training. 

We both know that can change. 

If they are ready then great, but I don’t think Brez sits in office, and thinks we’ve got so much pitching depth what are we going to do with it all, so let’s trade a young controlled pitcher like Bello. Gio, Bue are not long term solutions, and who knows how long Cro will be around. As we’ve learned the last few years all the so called starting pitchers depth will most likely be needed at some point during the season if not all.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Does anyone even know if he’ll be ready to start the season. I read one report that said Whit, and Gio will most likely start the year on the IL.

Gio thought he could pitch in Sept. Whitlock is more likely to be not ready for April. 

If going by odds:

Gio: 85% Opening Day (barring other injury)

Whitlock: 50% Opening Day, likely is just put on 15 day IL once or twice to start the season

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If they are ready then great, but I don’t think Brez sits in office, and thinks we’ve got so much pitching depth what are we going to do with it all, so let’s trade a young controlled pitcher like Bello. Gio, Bue are not long term solutions, and who knows how long Cro will be around. As we’ve learned the last few years all the so called starting pitchers depth will most likely be needed at some point during the season if not all.

Smart man. Bello would get a decent return. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If they are ready then great, but I don’t think Brez sits in office, and thinks we’ve got so much pitching depth what are we going to do with it all, so let’s trade a young controlled pitcher like Bello. Gio, Bue are not long term solutions, and who knows how long Cro will be around. As we’ve learned the last few years all the so called starting pitchers depth will most likely be needed at some point during the season if not all.

But what if a Wily Mo Pena batter becomes available? 

Wouldn't his 16 homers and negative-WAR be worth trading a pitcher for (a guy who in the next eight years averaged 211 IP and 33 starts, while winning over 100 games with a 20 WAR... and was a rock star)?

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But what if a Wily Mo Pena batter becomes available? 

Wouldn't his 16 homers and negative-WAR be worth trading a pitcher for (a guy who in the next eight years averaged 211 IP and 33 starts, while winning over 100 games with a 20 WAR... and was a rock star)?

Not Theo's finest moment.

[moonslav59]

Crawford/Bello as our 6th starter is the best we've had since maybe 2018, after the Nate trade, but Pom-Pom was having an awful year.

Criswell may be the best 7th starter in  along time, and the Fitts-Priester-Fulmer trio (plus Dobbins) offer us a decent pool to choose the best from, if needed.

I would still love to see us get a #1-2 type and push everyone else down another notch, but that is a pipedream. I doubt we even add a solid RP'er.

I think our sights are set on Bregman or Teoscar and maybe a back-up catcher by trade.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not Theo's finest moment.

Only 20 WAR for a starter who pitched until he was 40 isn't exactly amazing. Bruce Hurst had 19.5 bWAR by the time he left BOS in 1988. Wakefield had 20 bWAR from 02-end of career and that includes the very ugly end. Lowe had 20 bWAR from 98-03. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 20 WAR for a starter who pitched until he was 40 isn't exactly amazing. Bruce Hurst had 19.5 bWAR by the time he left BOS in 1988. Wakefield had 20 bWAR from 02-end of career and that includes the very ugly end. Lowe had 20 bWAR from 98-03. 

True, Arroyo was not an elite talent.  He was mainly a good innings-chomper.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

True, Arroyo was not an elite talent.  He was mainly a good innings-chomper.

He would have been useful for the Sox, but losing him didn't hurt them really. His 23.4 bWAR isn't top 400 all time. To be top 300, you need 30 bWAR. Guys with 30 bWAR: Woody Williams, Teddy Higuera, James Shields, Mike Boddicker, Brandon Webb, Andy Benes, Barry Zito, Sid Fernandez, Rick Sutcliffe, Charlie Leibrandt, Freddy Garcia, Chris Carpenter, John Tudor, Dan Haren, José Rijo, etc. A lot of guys with either really high peaks (ex. Higuera) or generally long productive careers (ex. Sutcliffe). Those are lots of good pitchers, but guys you wouldn't be saving the baseball cards of. Arroyo is down with the likes of Ken Hill and Bill Gullickson, guys you need to be reminded once played the game.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True, Arroyo was not an elite talent.  He was mainly a good innings-chomper.

Something we could have used.

ERA+/IP

2006: 142/241 (Led league) The Sox had 1 SP'er w an ERA+ over 103 (40 starts from scrubs)

2007: 109/211 The Sox had just 2 SP'ers over 108 (Beckett & Schill) Tavarez had 23 GS at 92 ERA+

2008: 92/200 Buchholz had a 69 ERA+ and the 5th most GS

2009: 110/220 The Sox had 2 SP'ers over 111 (Beckett & Lester) Penny 83, Dice K 81, Smoltz 56 (44 GS total)

2010: 105/216 Buch led the majors at 187 and Lester was at 134, but the next 5 were below 100.

 

[Old Red]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford/Bello as our 6th starter is the best we've had since maybe 2018, after the Nate trade, but Pom-Pom was having an awful year.

Criswell may be the best 7th starter in  along time, and the Fitts-Priester-Fulmer trio (plus Dobbins) offer us a decent pool to choose the best from, if needed.

I would still love to see us get a #1-2 type and push everyone else down another notch, but that is a pipedream. I doubt we even add a solid RP'er.

I think our sights are set on Bregman or Teoscar and maybe a back-up catcher by trade.

Bello is NOT going to be anyone’s 5th pitcher let alone 6th pitcher. He may end end up being the best pitcher on the staff this year. You guys make it sound like Roger, Pedro, Sale, Beckett, and Schill is in front of him, and they are not. Not even close.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bello is NOT going to be anyone’s 5th pitcher let alone 6th pitcher. He may end end up being the best pitcher on the staff this year. You guys make it sound like Roger, Pedro, Sale, Beckett, and Schill is in front of him, and they are not. Not even close.

Bello is not even close to Houck or Crochett. If Bello is the best they have in the rotation, there must be several injuries and the season is OVER.

[Old Red]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Smart man. Bello would get a decent return. 

Yes Bello would help get a decent return, but I don’t think Brez has any thoughts of trading him, or that the Red Sox have an over abundance of pitching depth that’s not short term they could spare him in a deal.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bello is not even close to Houck or Crochett. If Bello is the best they have in the rotation, there must be several injuries and the season is OVER.

Houck has had 1 good, and healthy year, so until he does it again in 2025 I’m not ready to anoint him the next big thing yet. Cro has pitched 65+ innings just once, so I’ll wait to see how in can handle an increased workload, and how he handles Boston before I anoint him too. Sounds like you already have,

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bello is not even close to Houck or Crochett. If Bello is the best they have in the rotation, there must be several injuries and the season is OVER.

Indeed, Bello could easily be our #3. Gio, Buehler and Crawford all have serious questions, but so does Bello.

He needs to show his 2024 decline was just a blip.

ERA 4.24>4.49 (ERA+ 107>95)

WHIP 1.338> 1.361

K/BB 2.9>2.4

2024 Rankings:

ERA+ 137 Houck, 105 Criswell, 103 Pivetta & Wink, 98 Crawford, 95 Bello

FIP: 3.32 Houck, 4.07 Pivetta, 4.15 Criswell, 4.19 Bello, 4.48 Wink, 4.65 Crawford

K/BB: 4.8 Pivetta, 3.4 Crawford, 3.2 Houck, 2.4 Criswell & Bello, 2.3 Wink

Certainly, Bello can improve, but in no way should he be called our 3rd SP.

4th or 5th sounds about right.

Crochet and Houck are clear 1 & 2. Buehler has the potential to be our 1-2 and could be viewed as our #3, on paper, right now, but there are many questions. Giolito was one of MLB's top 10 pitchers from 2019-2021, but that seems like so far away. He showed some hope over the first half of 2023, but one half of a good season out of 6 halves is not good, at all. I'm fine with putting Bello 4 and Gio or Crawford 5th and 6th.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Houck has had 1 good, and healthy year, so until he does it again in 2025 I’m not ready to anoint him the next big thing yet. Cro has pitched 65+ innings just once, so I’ll wait to see how in can handle an increased workload, and how he handles Boston before I anoint him too. Sounds like you already have,

I've seen how Bello has handled Boston since he was called up 71 games ago. The only thing that he does more than average is walk batters. 

[moonslav59]

Houck was awesome over his first 3 seasons with the Sox, despite missing some time in 2021 and 2022. His only bas year was 2023.

Injuries are a concern with him, but I'm encouraged by his full 2024 season as a starter.

2020-2022: 150 ERA+, 3.02 ERA/2.95 FIP (His 69 ERA- ranked 30th out of 234 pitchers with 140+ IP.)

He's been hurt, but he's only had one bad year.

I like Bello, a lot, but he has yet to prove he can come close to what Houck had already done in all but one season.

Crochet has major questions about his ability to pitch 150+ IP for the next 2 years, let alone 170 or 180. No doubt, that is a concern, but when you look at what our SP'ers have done, especially most recently, it seems totally logical to slot Crochet and Houck 1-2, knowing full well, MLB is fluid. 

Bello could be poised for a great year, or he could continue to decline, as he did in 2024.

Buehler is the big wild card, in terms of range of projected 2025 production.

Gio has not done much in 3 years. I can see slotting him 5th or even 6th.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I've seen how Bello has handled Boston since he was called up 71 games ago. The only thing that he does more than average is walk batters. 

He does have one good thing going for him, over others:

2nd half of 2024 ERA:

3.47 Bello (1.225 WHIP was second to Nick)

3.48 Criswell (1.452)

4.20 Pivetta (1.150 was best)

4.23 Houck (1.36)

6.59 Crawford (1.249)