2025 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Bregman's replacement?

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/pipeline-inbox-is-boston-red-sox-kristian-campbell-rise-unprecedented?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Jim Callis comps for Campbell's rise: Brandon Belt, Ryan Klesko, Jeff Bagwell.

Circling back to Campbell, we didn't play it safe by jumping him up to No. 7 on the Top 100. When we were getting external feedback for the list, multiple organizations told us they thought he was the best prospect in baseball. While his rise is shocking, the reasons behind it are real.

It sounds a lot simpler than it is to actually accomplish, but the Red Sox put Campbell on a program to improve his strength and bat speed while changing his bat path and approach to do more damage. Those type of changes almost never work this quickly and dramatically, but his outstanding hand-eye coordination and work ethic made him an exception. His underlying data supports his growth and improved throughout 2024, so not only do Campbell's gains seem sustainable but there may be more to come if he can cut his chase rate a bit and hit more balls in the air.

On non-top 100 players he's most excited to see stateside this year: 

The player who has piqued my curiosity the most -- perhaps because I just wrote his upcoming Red Sox Top 30 report -- is first baseman/outfielder Justin Gonzales. Signed for just $250,000 out of the Dominican Republic in January 2024, he broke into pro ball by hitting .320/.391/.517 with 20 extra-base hits and eight steals in 47 DSL games. He already has plus raw power with more to come, posted a very promising combination of non-chase and contact rates and exit velocities, and has surprising athleticism for someone who's bigger than his listed 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds.

[moonslav59]

Hard not to get giddy over the path our farm system is taking.

[mvp 78]

It'll be interesting to see if the hitting coordinators can do a reverse Campbell and fix Will Turner. Will spent some time at AL trying to change his contact style swing to add power and saw his stock plummet. Can the Sox get his contact swing back? 

[moonslav59]

Have Bregman talk ti Will.

[moonslav59]

This thread is about our 2025 prospects, but here is a look at some of our recently graduated prospects, since 2021:

P: Houck '21, Whitlock '21, Bello '22, Crawford '22, Slaten '24,  Winckowski '22, Kelly & Bernardino '23

Everyday: Duran '22, Casas '23, Wong '22, Abreu '24, Rafaela & DHam '24

There is about a dozen pretty good players, here, and we could be adding 4-6 more in the next year or two (listed by ETA on soxprospects.com):

Early '25: 1. Anthony, 2, Campbell, 3. Mayer, 17. Guerrero, 20. Penrod (to IL?), 28. Narvaez

Mid '25: 9. Fitts

Late '25: 8. Dobbins

2026: 11. Sandlin, 12. Jh Garcia, 13. Romero, 14. Early, 18. Castro, 21. Monegro, 24. Mullins, 27. Jordan, 29. Wehunt

(Longshots: 47. Gambrel, 48 Hickey, 49 G Jackson, 50 Uberstine, 56. Mata)

 

[sk7326]

On 2/8/2025 at 1:00 PM, Larry Cook said:

Arias is the best defensive short stop I saw in the Red Sox farm system last season! Wow!! 
but he is a bit of a free swinger, aka rafeala! 
2025 is a big year for him! I think if he proves he can hit, he ends the year in Portland 

Arias has a prove-it year to a degree.  But he also did not look out of place at Salem as a 19 year old.  Him ending the season in Portland at that age means there is an "above average starter" sort of upside there.  

[sk7326]

On 2/19/2025 at 8:49 AM, mvp 78 said:

It'll be interesting to see if the hitting coordinators can do a reverse Campbell and fix Will Turner. Will spent some time at AL trying to change his contact style swing to add power and saw his stock plummet. Can the Sox get his contact swing back? 

What is interesting is that Turner did see that he needed to make some swing fixes to get more lift - clearly the changes he made didn't work.  But yeah - the Sox have shown they have been able to get some of that out of these players.  

[moonslav59]

I get a feeling we will be seeing many of our lower ranked prospects make some very strong leaps upwards.

Some will disappoint or get hurt, but we have so many prospects with promise, I think we will be impressed.

[mvp 78]

20 hours ago, sk7326 said:

What is interesting is that Turner did see that he needed to make some swing fixes to get more lift - clearly the changes he made didn't work.  But yeah - the Sox have shown they have been able to get some of that out of these players.  

Make a prediction on a few guys? 

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Make a prediction on a few guys? 

 

I predict Arias jumps into the top 3, as one graduates.

Cespedes is at #4 by EOY.

Fitts graduates and does well in the pen at the ML level.

JH Garcia moves to top 6 or 7, and his brother to top 9 or 10.

Castro fall below #30. Jordan below #45.

I like Valera, Reyes and Delzine to make major gains.

I have doubts about Dobbins and don't know much about Cason and Tolle to have an opnion.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

I predict Arias jumps into the top 3, as one graduates.

Cespedes is at #4 by EOY.

Fitts graduates and does well in the pen at the ML level.

JH Garcia moves to top 6 or 7, and his brother to top 9 or 10.

Castro fall below #30. Jordan below #45.

I like Valera, Reyes and Delzine to make major gains.

I have doubts about Dobbins and don't know much about Cason and Tolle to have an opnion.

Arias needs to hit outside of the FCL, but I could see that happening. I think Arias is limited by his defensive issues and may be kept down a bit, unless the overall farm is kind of slagging. I'm still very high on Johanfran and if his defense gets better, he may peak higher than his older brother. I think Castro and Jordan are both trade fodder. Valera should jump up significantly the way Perales did back in the day. I kind of agree with Dobbins and need to see it over the longer term, but I like his attitude and what I've heard from him. Cason is a huge unknown. I like the ball of clay that Tolle is, but any draftee is a huge question mark. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Arias needs to hit outside of the FCL, but I could see that happening. I think Arias is limited by his defensive issues and may be kept down a bit, unless the overall farm is kind of slagging. I'm still very high on Johanfran and if his defense gets better, he may peak higher than his older brother. I think Castro and Jordan are both trade fodder. Valera should jump up significantly the way Perales did back in the day. I kind of agree with Dobbins and need to see it over the longer term, but I like his attitude and what I've heard from him. Cason is a huge unknown. I like the ball of clay that Tolle is, but any draftee is a huge question mark. 

Surprised Arias, who was signed as a "glove-first shortstop", is now rated by Soxprospects as only as a potential "average defender at shortstop." But they like him better as a second baseman! Just like Romero... and Cespedes... 

Dorion Soto anyone?

[mvp 78]

52 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Surprised Arias, who was signed as a "glove-first shortstop", is now rated by Soxprospects as only as a potential "average defender at shortstop." But they like him better as a second baseman! Just like Romero... and Cespedes... 

Dorion Soto anyone?

Just because they were "signed as" something doesn't mean they still are. His bat is far more advanced than they initially thought it would be. They signed Yoiber Ruiz to be a SS the same year as Arias for a similar amount of $$$ and he's been transitioned to C/2B/3B and hasn't yet to appear stateside. 

[mvp 78]

On Soto:

Field: Solid actions and soft hands. Unclear if he will be able to stick at shortstop long-term given his current size and that he is already growing, but will start off his career there.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Just because they were "signed as" something doesn't mean they still are. His bat is far more advanced than they initially thought it would be. They signed Yoiber Ruiz to be a SS the same year as Arias for a similar amount of $$$ and he's been transitioned to C/2B/3B and hasn't yet to appear stateside. 

Of course almost all prospects grow up playing shortstop, where the best players always play, and we've had plenty of drafts where the Sox load up on best players available -- to be moved to another position at a later date. It's almost another cliche now to wonder if anyone "can stick at SS."

But of all the shortstops on Soxprospects, it still looks like Mayer is their choice as the most likely... even if they also see him as a potential third baseman.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Arias needs to hit outside of the FCL, but I could see that happening. I think Arias is limited by his defensive issues and may be kept down a bit, unless the overall farm is kind of slagging. I'm still very high on Johanfran and if his defense gets better, he may peak higher than his older brother. I think Castro and Jordan are both trade fodder. Valera should jump up significantly the way Perales did back in the day. I kind of agree with Dobbins and need to see it over the longer term, but I like his attitude and what I've heard from him. Cason is a huge unknown. I like the ball of clay that Tolle is, but any draftee is a huge question mark. 

I thought Arias we known for great D.

What do you think of Romero? Here's a kid that was highly praised, but injuries made everyone forget about him. He looked pretty good, last year. Maybe he jumps a lot.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought Arias we known for great D.

What do you think of Romero? Here's a kid that was highly praised, but injuries made everyone forget about him. He looked pretty good, last year. Maybe he jumps a lot.

I meant Cespedes in the second sentence.

Romero is a 2b/3b through and through. He could be good? Hard to say. 

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I meant Cespedes in the second sentence.

Romero is a 2b/3b through and through. He could be good? Hard to say. 

I figured you made a boo-boo, since you know more than I do about prospects, and couldn't get that wrong about Arias.

I had a feeling Romero would not end up a MLB SS. It would be great if he lives up to some of his original hype.

[mvp 78]

Interested in a few DSL prospects this year.

 

[moonslav59]

It's hard for me to know if my excitement over so many promising prospects is more of of want or need than reality, but I see a lot of potential- seemingly way more than we've seen in a long, long time.

This now goes beyond the big 3. The next 4 look poised to jump: Arias, Perales, Bleis & Cespedes. We got older guys like Fitts, Guerrero, Sandlin, Narvaez, Early & Dobbins with some decent chances. We got the Garcia brothers & Romero with real potential.

Then, we have a whole mess of kids that are young and/or unproven but with some noticeable skills, like Valera, Reyes, Tolle, Cason, Justin Gonzalez, Soto, Delzine, Ramos and maybe a half dozen more.

Our farm is deep, now, and it is more balanced with pitching hopefuls, too. While only 1 of our top 7 prospects in a pitcher,,14 of the next 17 are. That makes it 15 of the top 24 with Wehunt, Neely, Tygart, Fajardo, Delzine, Carlson, Ingrassia and others looking to rise, this year.

I'm pumped!

[mvp 78]

This guy's pitch mix is interesting enough that I think he could rise pretty fast in the org the way Early did. He's being developed as a starter, but may end up moving to closer at some point. 

[mvp 78]

Hoss Tolle

[mvp 78]

This would be unsurprising as he started to transition off C last season, was demoted to AA to work on catching and make room for the big 4 but really hasn't shown much behind the plate at any point. His OPS really fell off last season with the promotion to AAA. Maybe a second go around will help him the way it did for Kavadas (+185 OPS in second season at AAA)? 

[mvp 78]

Not sure I've heard anyone mention Gonzales' defense. 

[drewski6]

On 3/4/2025 at 2:41 PM, mvp 78 said:

This would be unsurprising as he started to transition off C last season, was demoted to AA to work on catching and make room for the big 4 but really hasn't shown much behind the plate at any point. His OPS really fell off last season with the promotion to AAA. Maybe a second go around will help him the way it did for Kavadas (+185 OPS in second season at AAA)? 

he (hickey) doesnt have the ops to play 1b and is a borderline prospect at this point, to me

[moonslav59]

Agree on Hickey. He might be a career AAAA player.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agree on Hickey. He might be a career AAAA player.

He's not even a career AAA player yet.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, drewski6 said:

he (hickey) doesnt have the ops to play 1b and is a borderline prospect at this point, to me

'22 937 OPS

'23 858 OPS

Can't completely write him off after one bad year. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

'22 937 OPS

'23 858 OPS

Can't completely write him off after one bad year. 

Sure, but when catchers move to 1b, its usually (not always) a desperate attempt to save a plummeting prospect (Blake Swihart)