2025 Prospects

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The jumps listed on the front page aren't actually correct. I believe they are from the beginning of the season. The jumps from the previous ranking:

Yes, that's how they do it.

They are correct in that sense, but as for recent jumps and falls, yes, they are not correct.

When you look at jumps and falls, we also have to look at who graduated and where they were ranked, to see if players moved up on their own or by attrition.

These players graduates this year:

Anthony AUG #1 April & July

Campbell JUN #2 April

Mayer AUG #3 April & #2 July (KC graduated)

Fitts JUN #11 April

Dobbins JUL #12 April

Narvaez MAY #20 April

Guerrero JUL #23 April

That's 7 top 23 players who left the list by graduation.

5 players who were above Tolle & Jh Garcia in April, graduated, but only 3 were above Arias. Fajardo jumped from 40 to 11, and 7 of the slots he jumped were vacated by graduates.

We've been graduating some decent players in recent years:

2024: Abreu, Rafaela & Slaten

2023: Casas, Murphy & Bernardino (not that impressive)

2022: Duran, Bello, Crawford, Wink & Wong (Houck was late '21 & Whitlock mid '21.)

 

[moonslav59]

Hitting around .700 in A+ and AA ball this year is nothing to get excited about, but Arias is just 19 years old, so it's hard to project just how good (or bad) he will be at the plate. He seems like he might already be a plus on defense at the MLB level, but I'm going by scouting reports.

I agree with MVP, that he not a top 25 nationwide prospect, but I think there is just too much unknown to project his final outcome.

I like Godbout, too. I know he's only been playing a short time, but I'd have him above Romero, already. As much as out everyday player prospects have been maligned, recently, and with all the recent graduates, it's understandable. I think the great rise of our pitching prospects has also made it look like our everyday prospects are not as good as maybe they are. We may not have as many as before, and with guys like Cespedes, Bleis and Castro moving in the wrong direction, it is safe to say, we have very limited non pitching talent. What we have, I argue is pretty damn promising, though.

I still think Jhostynxon Garcia is the real deal. We may find that out, real soon. Romero might be the next closest to MLB ready, but I don't see him as more than a decent utility player. Bleis, Cespedes and Castor are now long shots. Nelly Taylor might make a jump, next year, but at age 22, he pretty much has to jump to get himself in the conversation.

We've talked about Arias and Godbout, and Justin Gonzales has gotten some serious talk this year, too. I may be off base, but I have a lot of faith in Johanfran Garcia and a little bit in Yophery Rodriguez (both 19-20 years old.) Recent additions like Mason White, Jorge Rodriguez & Max Martin have some real hopes, but to me a 2-3 of these guys will jump some or a lot, next year:

Dorian Soto SS 17

Enddy Azocar OF 18

Hector Ramos SS 18

Harold Rivas OF 17

 

[moonslav59]

If we assume the MLB rotation will be Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford and Dobbins (Houck on IL: Wink & Criswell in the pen), take a look how deep our farm rotation goes:

AAA: Early, Harrison, Tolle, Fitts, Perales (Uberstine, de Leon,  Drohan, Anderson, I Coffey)

AA: Holobetz, Mullins, Clarke, Paez, Aita (Wehunt, Dean, Rogers)

A+: Fajardo, Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson (Tygart, Neely, Foutch)

A-: Travieso, J Bello, Patton, Ruiz, Morgan (Brown, Gartrell)

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we assume the MLB rotation will be Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford and Dobbins (Houck on IL: Wink & Criswell in the pen), take a look how deep our farm rotation goes:

AAA: Early, Harrison, Tolle, Fitts, Perales (Uberstine, de Leon,  Drohan, Anderson, I Coffey)

AA: Holobetz, Mullins, Clarke, Paez, Aita (Wehunt, Dean, Rogers)

A+: Fajardo, Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson (Tygart, Neely, Foutch)

A-: Travieso, J Bello, Patton, Ruiz, Morgan (Brown, Gartrell)

Somebody won't be ready for Opening Day and Early will be the 5th starter. 

[Old Red]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we assume the MLB rotation will be Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford and Dobbins (Houck on IL: Wink & Criswell in the pen), take a look how deep our farm rotation goes:

AAA: Early, Harrison, Tolle, Fitts, Perales (Uberstine, de Leon,  Drohan, Anderson, I Coffey)

AA: Holobetz, Mullins, Clarke, Paez, Aita (Wehunt, Dean, Rogers)

A+: Fajardo, Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson (Tygart, Neely, Foutch)

A-: Travieso, J Bello, Patton, Ruiz, Morgan (Brown, Gartrell)

Outside of Crochet, and Bello I’m not assuming any of those other guys healthy, or not will be in the rotation.

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Outside of Crochet, and Bello I’m not assuming any of those other guys healthy, or not will be in the rotation.

Sox need to sign or trade for a good pitcher this offseason.  If some of those other guys take the 5th spot great, if they work their way up to Boston and stick in the rotation, great.  As we've learned this past season.......you can have all the depth in the world and it's still not enough pitching. 

[Old Red]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Sox need to sign or trade for a good pitcher this offseason.  If some of those other guys take the 5th spot great, if they work their way up to Boston and stick in the rotation, great.  As we've learned this past season.......you can have all the depth in the world and it's still not enough pitching. 

That I agree on.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Outside of Crochet, and Bello I’m not assuming any of those other guys healthy, or not will be in the rotation.

Even Bello is almost a lock to not be ready for Opening Day TBH (only made it in '24). Crawford, Sandoval AND Dobbins are all coming back from injury. One of those guys will surely have a hiccup. They could sign a FA and still need Early as a 5th starter. 

[Hugh2]

Crochet

Ryan (or other)

Bello

Sandoval

Early

There's a greater than 0% chance this is your opening day rotation

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Somebody won't be ready for Opening Day and Early will be the 5th starter. 

Most likely Dobbins, but I was trying to point out the max our farm starter depth could be.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Even Bello is almost a lock to not be ready for Opening Day TBH (only made it in '24). Crawford, Sandoval AND Dobbins are all coming back from injury. One of those guys will surely have a hiccup. They could sign a FA and still need Early as a 5th starter. 

Almost a "lock" to "NOT" be ready for Bello?

[moonslav59]

I'm always for adding a SP'er near or at the top of the rotation. I've always disliked trying to upgrade the #5, but I do feel like adding a #2 SP'er is the second priority behind adding a big bat at corner IF or 2B. The third priority is adding a second bat at one of the positions not filled by the #1 priority get. (We'll roll the dice with Mayer at 3B, 2B or SS w Story to 2B and have Romy/Sogard/DHam as depth.)

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Almost a "lock" to "NOT" be ready for Bello?

He wasn't ready in '23 and wasn't ready in '25 after seemingly being fine in the offseason. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Crochet

Ryan (or other)

Bello

Sandoval

Early

There's a greater than 0% chance this is your opening day rotation

What has Sandoval done in his career to make him a lock for the rotation? A lot has changed since he was signed, and I don’t see Sandoval much more than a depth piece at this time.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Hitting around .700 in A+ and AA ball this year is nothing to get excited about, but Arias is just 19 years old, so it's hard to project just how good (or bad) he will be at the plate. He seems like he might already be a plus on defense at the MLB level, but I'm going by scouting reports.

I agree with MVP, that he not a top 25 nationwide prospect, but I think there is just too much unknown to project his final outcome.

I like Godbout, too. I know he's only been playing a short time, but I'd have him above Romero, already. As much as out everyday player prospects have been maligned, recently, and with all the recent graduates, it's understandable.

A D1 star like Godbout is just a better bet than younger international signings or high schoolers. College prospects are often more polished products than the raw athletes getting on-the-job training in summer academies and rookie ball.

Remember how sure the Epstein regime was of that shortstop from Arizona State, Dustin Pedroia? Only special high school talents like Marcus Betts got the big bucks to sign back then (makes you wonder if Theo were still in charge with his keen eye for generational stars if the Sox would've paid Mookie in 2020).

Godbout is from UVA, where Early also came out of with his arsenal of pitches. Breslow loading up on mound draft picks from southern colleges only promises that more big arms will be on fast paths to The Show.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He wasn't ready in '23 and wasn't ready in '25 after seemingly being fine in the offseason. 

I get that, but that does not mean he won't be in '26.

28, 30 ands 28 GS'd in the past 3 seasons is not the sign of an injury prone pitcher. He also had 6 GS'd in the minors in the past 3 seasons in rehab, so basically, he's started 28, 31, 32.

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

What has Sandoval done in his career to make him a lock for the rotation? A lot has changed since he was signed, and I don’t see Sandoval much more than a depth piece at this time.

I don't have a good answer for you Red, you'd have to ask the Boston Red Sox.  Just by going by what they said when he was signed an all that, if he's healthy, and baring something ugly I think they're going to give him a crack at the rotation. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't have a good answer for you Red, you'd have to ask the Boston Red Sox.  Just by going by what they said when he was signed an all that, if he's healthy, and baring something ugly I think they're going to give him a crack at the rotation. 

I can see giving Sandoval a crack, but certainly not a lock. Like I said earlier a lot has changed since he was signed. When he was signed did anyone think Early would be starting a deciding game in the postseason against the Yankees?

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

What has Sandoval done in his career to make him a lock for the rotation? A lot has changed since he was signed, and I don’t see Sandoval much more than a depth piece at this time.

You have a point. Many pitchers have had one really good season and then not much else.

Sandoval had one good year:  2.91 in '22 with a 3.09 FIP that hints at it not being lucky. He also pitched well in '21 and .23, but not great.

3.62/4.03 in '21

2.91/3.09 in '22

4.11/4.18 in '23

From May 1 to the end of 2023 and his injury, he had these numbers in 69 GS- a pretty significant sample size and more than a one year wonder.

3.53 ERA (122 ERA+) and a 3.72 FIP

In the time frame of 2 full seasons plus May>Oct in '21...

His 8.7 fWAR placed him 44th (350+ IP)

His 93 ERA- placed him at #46, near Morton, Stroman, Quintana, Eflin and Nola.

That 460 IP sample size is as large as or close to these Sox pitchers the last 3 seasons:

97 GS (543 IP) Bello 6.7 fWAR (99 ERA-)

68 GS (390 IP) Crawford 4.8 fWAR (105 ERA-)

64 GS (388 IP) Houck 5.5 fWAR (98 ERA-) His '21-'23: 8.7 fWAR &85 ERA-

Sandoval: 69 GS (460 IP) 8.7 fWAR & 93 ERA-

I think this supports at least giving him the benefit of doubt that he deserves a slot, unless he looks awful in ST'ing.

Remember, Crawford is returning from an injury and missed season. Houck is out until 2027, Dobbins will likely start the season on the IL, and MVP is projecting Bello to miss time. Gio will be gone.

I'm giving him a slot that is his to lose.

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You have a point. Many pitchers have had one really good season and then not much else.

Sandoval had one good year:  2.91 in '22 with a 3.09 FIP that hints at it not being lucky. He also pitched well in '21 and .23, but not great.

3.62/4.03 in '21

2.91/3.09 in '22

4.11/4.18 in '23

From May 1 to the end of 2023 and his injury, he had these numbers in 69 GS- a pretty significant sample size and more than a one year wonder.

3.53 ERA (122 ERA+) and a 3.72 FIP

In the time frame of 2 full seasons plus May>Oct in '21...

His 8.7 fWAR placed him 44th (350+ IP)

His 93 ERA- placed him at #46, near Morton, Stroman, Quintana, Eflin and Nola.

That 460 IP sample size is as large as or close to these Sox pitchers the last 3 seasons:

97 GS (543 IP) Bello 6.7 fWAR (99 ERA-)

68 GS (390 IP) Crawford 4.8 fWAR (105 ERA-)

64 GS (388 IP) Houck 5.5 fWAR (98 ERA-) His '21-'23: 8.7 fWAR &85 ERA-

Sandoval: 69 GS (460 IP) 8.7 fWAR & 93 ERA-

I think this supports at least giving him the benefit of doubt that he deserves a slot, unless he looks awful in ST'ing.

Remember, Crawford is returning from an injury and missed season. Houck is out until 2027, Dobbins will likely start the season on the IL, and MVP is projecting Bello to miss time. Gio will be gone.

I'm giving him a slot that is his to lose.

I guess Paying him $12M+ too will be in his favor.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

I guess Paying him $12M+ too will be in his favor.

Yup, like Hicks, who would have been DFA'd, this year.

Sandoval was supposed to give us 2026 and maybe 2 months of '25, but we've heard that story before. That would have come to about $8M per prorated season: now it's $12M/1.

Hendriks ended up being about $10M/0.

Paxton was about $10M/ 0.5.

Maybe we finally strike gold.

[moonslav59]

It's weird how soxprospects.com updated their rankings recently, then they do an official ranking in early November. What really changes between now and then? 

Some Fall and Winter ball adjustments?

A trade of or for prospects?

[Hugh2]

16 hours ago, Old Red said:

I can see giving Sandoval a crack, but certainly not a lock. Like I said earlier a lot has changed since he was signed. When he was signed did anyone think Early would be starting a deciding game in the postseason against the Yankees?

I think he's going to be penciled in as the 4th/5th.  Now, If he looks god awful in spring training that could very well change.  And if it looks bad as the season progresses, I hope they pull the plug a little sooner than they did with Buehler. 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I think he's going to be penciled in as the 4th/5th.  Now, If he looks god awful in spring training that could very well change.  And if it looks bad as the season progresses, I hope they pull the plug a little sooner than they did with Buehler. 

The guy pitched well for three years before the injury. Not Buehler good, but pretty good, and it was just one injury.

I think we have the rotation depth to cover him, if he flounders, but we need a #2. I don't trust Bello or Sandoval as our #2.

Ideally, it should be...

1. Crochet

2. ______

3. Bello

4. Sandoval

5. Early

6. Crawford, Dobbins, Tolle, Harrison, Fitts, Perales, Criswell 

Maybe start Fitts & Tolle in the pen. Crawford could be pen-bound, as well. Tolle, Perales, Harrison, Dobbins, Criswell and Crawford could start in the AAA rotation.

[Hugh2]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The guy pitched well for three years before the injury. Not Buehler good, but pretty good, and it was just one injury.

I think we have the rotation depth to cover him, if he flounders, but we need a #2. I don't trust Bello or Sandoval as our #2.

Ideally, it should be...

1. Crochet

2. ______

3. Bello

4. Sandoval

5. Early

6. Crawford, Dobbins, Tolle, Harrison, Fitts, Perales, Criswell 

Maybe start Fitts & Tolle in the pen. Crawford could be pen-bound, as well. Tolle, Perales, Harrison, Dobbins, Criswell and Crawford could start in the AAA rotation.

They're almost certainly 100% not starting TOlle in the pen, he's arguably their #1 prospect and one step away from developing into a legit #2 starter.  He moved to the pen for the playoffs and while he could find his way back there at some point he's a starter in 2026.  I think you're right about him startin the rotation in AAA, if he performs well he will find his way up eventually either thru injury or giving someone the boot. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

They're almost certainly 100% not starting TOlle in the pen, he's arguably their #1 prospect and one step away from developing into a legit #2 starter.  He moved to the pen for the playoffs and while he could find his way back there at some point he's a starter in 2026.  I think you're right about him startin the rotation in AAA, if he performs well he will find his way up eventually either thru injury or giving someone the boot. 

Tolle needs to greatly improve his secondary pitches to become a #2 SP'er. The reason Early did better was due to the higher quality mix of pitches. 

That's not to say Tolle will never pass Early, but for now, I do not see Tolle as a top 5 SP'er going into 2026. 

I understand the worry of putting him in the pen, which might stunt his starter potential, but in terms of giving the 2026 MLB Sox their bast 13 man pitching staff, he'd be in the pen and not the AAA rotation. I'm not certain I want them to do that, if they feel it significantly hurts his growth at becoming a 2/3 slot MLB SP'er.

Right now, I have 7-8 pitchers ahead of Tolle for starting with the big club:

Crochet, Bello, Sandoval

Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Early

Maybe even Perales, Fitts & Criswell. (These last two are more likely pen guys, despite Criswell's much better success as a starter.)

 

[Hugh2]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Tolle needs to greatly improve his secondary pitches to become a #2 SP'er. The reason Early did better was due to the higher quality mix of pitches. 

That's not to say Tolle will never pass Early, but for now, I do not see Tolle as a top 5 SP'er going into 2026. 

I understand the worry of putting him in the pen, which might stunt his starter potential, but in terms of giving the 2026 MLB Sox their bast 13 man pitching staff, he'd be in the pen and not the AAA rotation. I'm not certain I want them to do that, if they feel it significantly hurts his growth at becoming a 2/3 slot MLB SP'er.

Right now, I have 7-8 pitchers ahead of Tolle for starting with the big club:

Crochet, Bello, Sandoval

Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Early

Maybe even Perales, Fitts & Criswell. (These last two are more likely pen guys, despite Criswell's much better success as a starter.)

 

The Red Sox are going to do what's best for Tolle, he starts next year in AAA to work on his secondaries.  That's not to say that he may not end up back in the pen, but they're going to give him 2026 to see if he can be a starter. 

[mvp 78]

On 10/14/2025 at 2:30 PM, moonslav59 said:

I get that, but that does not mean he won't be in '26.

28, 30 ands 28 GS'd in the past 3 seasons is not the sign of an injury prone pitcher. He also had 6 GS'd in the minors in the past 3 seasons in rehab, so basically, he's started 28, 31, 32.

Starting in MiLB doesn't factor into total games started IMO. Those are Spring Training starts. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

The Red Sox are going to do what's best for Tolle, he starts next year in AAA to work on his secondaries.  That's not to say that he may not end up back in the pen, but they're going to give him 2026 to see if he can be a starter. 

I agree.

My point was that the best spot for him to help the 2026 Sox win starting on opening day would be the MLB pen.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Starting in MiLB doesn't factor into total games started IMO. Those are Spring Training starts. 

Yup. Agreed.

If some were before he was called up, then they are not really ST'ing games, but I'm not sure about that 2023 season.