Article: To Trade or Not to Trade: Masataka Yoshida

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think it is possible for him to be a 2.0+ WAR guy, but 1.5 seems fair enough.

Factor in adjustment to the culture and injuries, and he might have been a 2.0.

The adjustments and injuries are understandable, but those are only part of his package of issues.  Now the fact that we have 2 other left-handed DH types who are better hitters makes Yoshida virtually useless.

If they trade Casas that might change the outlook a little. 

As always, I'm just jabbering away here, I don't know anything everyone else doesn't know too. 😁

[notin]

34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He has a ceiling of 1.5 WAR.  The numbers bear that out.  I'm not ripping him just for the sake of it.  He's a below average player and a roster clog.  Sucks but that's the way it is.  

He’s been a 1.4 bWAR each of the past 2 years…

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

He’s been a 1.4 bWAR each of the past 2 years…

And his fWARs are lower.  That's what I'm saying.

Thinking he's going to get better, especially after surgery, is wishcasting.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And his fWARs are lower.  That's what I'm saying.

Thinking he's going to get better, especially after surgery, is wishcasting.  

The "getting better" was contingent on staying healthy, and when he was healthy, he did look like a 2.0 guy. Remember, DH's are sharply devalued by fWAR, due to positional subtractions. He can hit better than a 1.5 WAR guy. His bWAR has been 1.8 per 162. His fWAR has been 0.9 per 162.

I was also addressing his "ceiling" not his projection.

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The "getting better" was contingent on staying healthy, and when he was healthy, he did look like a 2.0 guy. Remember, DH's are sharply devalued by fWAR, due to positional subtractions. He can hit better than a 1.5 WAR guy. His bWAR has been 1.8 per 162. His fWAR has been 0.9 per 162.

His WAR is also negatively impacted by his baserunning. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

His WAR is also negatively impacted by his baserunning. 

That's not going to change.

I think his ceiling is an .800 to .825 OPS, but he has not done that for even 3 months in a row, yet, so maybe I am just wishing.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

That's not going to change.

I think his ceiling is an .800 to .825 OPS, but he has not done that for even 3 months in a row, yet, so maybe I am just wishing.

Yeah, he's not going to get any younger or faster, and now he'll be post-surgery.  In reality he's likely to get worse.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, he's not going to get any younger or faster, and now he'll be post-surgery.  In reality he's likely to get worse.

The age and injury recovery factors are real and concerning, but to me, he has been dealing with injuries, a lot, already, so I would not say he'll be any worse over this latest injury. I think he was playing hurt for a while, so maybe in 2025, he won't be.

Expecting age 32 to be better than 30 and 31 is not really logical.

I think I just saw some nice stretches and felt like he could do it for 5-6 months, and not just 3.

[oldtimer]

On 12/13/2024 at 1:50 PM, moonslav59 said:

The "getting better" was contingent on staying healthy, and when he was healthy, he did look like a 2.0 guy. Remember, DH's are sharply devalued by fWAR, due to positional subtractions. He can hit better than a 1.5 WAR guy. His bWAR has been 1.8 per 162. His fWAR has been 0.9 per 162.

I was also addressing his "ceiling" not his projection.

He's a lefty handed hitter on the RS. a team loaded with them. He is slow and not a serious outfield reserve. He is a reasonable contact hitter but doesn't do much else. i believe we should trade him to someone who can utilize  him more than we can. Get as much of his salary off our books while looking for a right hand hitter who can at least be a reasonable sub at 1st and who can DH. 

[mvp 78]

DFA Yoshida when he comes off the IL if Casas (DH) isn’t on it as well. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

DFA Yoshida when he comes off the IL if Casas (DH) isn’t on it as well. 

Rusney Castillo says, "Konnichiwa"

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

DFA Yoshida when he comes off the IL if Casas (DH) isn’t on it as well. 

Why? Someone would take him at $2-6M a year, more like $6M, if he plays for a while and hits near or over .800.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Rusney Castillo says, "Konnichiwa"

Castillo wasn’t on the 40 man.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Why? Someone would take him at $2-6M a year, more like $6M, if he plays for a while and hits near or over .800.

If they can trade then trade. If not, DFA.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If they can trade then trade. If not, DFA.

That very well might happen.

A lot may depend on his opening day readiness. We may decide to keep Campbell and or Anthony off the 40 man, until they gain the added year of team control. That might be long enough for Yoshida to earn some value or prove he deserves a DFA.

If we stick with Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B, which seems like the odds on favorite, then we can carry a Yoshida-Ref DH platoon for a few weeks.

[mvp 78]

He won’t be ready for Opening Day. June?

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He won’t be ready for Opening Day. June?

One report says "probable for opening day."

ESPN says Feb 1st.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

One report says "probable for opening day."

ESPN says Feb 1st.

Surprising considering initial reports.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Surprising considering initial reports.

MLB reported this on a couple weeks after the  day of the surgery (OCT 3rd)

Though no further details were made available in the team’s press release, a source told MLB.com that the Red Sox are aiming for the left-handed hitter to be ready by Opening Day, which is set for March 27 at Texas.

MLBTR wrote: According to Ian Browne of MLB.com, the Red Sox are hoping Yoshida will be back in the lineup and ready to play on Opening Day.

NESN:  Alex Cora and company are aiming for the designated hitter to be ready for 2025 Opening Day. 

Did someone report otherwise?

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/13/2024 at 6:27 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

We have 3 left-handed DH types in Devers, Casas and Yoshida.  It's not ideal.  This was one of the dumbest signings ever.  

it was Bloom trying to score a coup.  Like everything else it did it was a fail

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

it was Bloom trying to score a coup.  Like everything else it did it was a fail

They actually thought Yoshida could play LF, and have been stuck on leaving Devers at 3B for 4 years too long. (It's not just Bloom on the second one.)

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MLB reported this on a couple weeks after the  day of the surgery (OCT 3rd)

Though no further details were made available in the team’s press release, a source told MLB.com that the Red Sox are aiming for the left-handed hitter to be ready by Opening Day, which is set for March 27 at Texas.

MLBTR wrote: According to Ian Browne of MLB.com, the Red Sox are hoping Yoshida will be back in the lineup and ready to play on Opening Day.

NESN:  Alex Cora and company are aiming for the designated hitter to be ready for 2025 Opening Day. 

Did someone report otherwise?

I heard otherwise. We’ll see what happens.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I heard otherwise. We’ll see what happens.

It always seems to take longer with Sox injured players, but I could not find one report that said later than opening day. Many said "hopefully by opening day," which hints at chances being present, he won't be ready, but I looked at several links and found none that said expected to out on opening day.

[notin]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Castillo wasn’t on the 40 man.

Yes he was for nearly 3 years…

[moonslav59]

How many teams would take Yoshida at $2M a year, which is just a little over $1M above min wage?

How many for $3-4M?

Are there any at $5-6M?

I doubt there are any at $7M+.

Maybe, if he plays for a few weeks or months and has an .800+ OPS, we can find someone willing to pay $7-9M a year for his services. Best case scenario, we trade him in May or June and pay about half of his remaining contract ($9M a year.)

Worst case: we end up just DFA'ing him, at some point, this year.

I doubt we feel enough pressure, right now, to just get what we can in a winter trade. It would help to open a roster slot for a top 3 prospect, but I do not think Brez feels rushed to do this.

Maybe a trade for a higher or near the same salary dump player is our best chance to unload him, but I have yet to find a match that makes sense for the other team. Why does STL (Arenado) want Yoshida? Why does AZ (Monty) want Yoshida? Why does SEA (Castillo- not really a "dump") want Yoshida?

SD (Darvish or Musgrove?) No.

HOU (McCullers?) They don't need a DH.

LAA (Trout or Rendon) Maybe, but why do we want to pay more?

TEX (deGrom?) Doubtful

SFG (Ray?) Who knows?

[mvp 78]

20 hours ago, notin said:

Yes he was for nearly 3 years…

What was the issue with calling him up to BOS then? 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What was the issue with calling him up to BOS then? 

Keeping his salary off the lux tax books.

[notin]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What was the issue with calling him up to BOS then? 

He was called up multiple times.  Even played in 99 games from 2014-2016, and put up crazy good DRS numbers for that stretch.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castiru02.shtml

After DD DFAd him and left him to rot in Worcester, THEN he was removed from the 40 man roster.  But he was certainly on it for quite a while…

[notin]

On 12/15/2024 at 12:33 PM, moonslav59 said:

How many teams would take Yoshida at $2M a year, which is just a little over $1M above min wage?

How many for $3-4M?

Are there any at $5-6M?

I doubt there are any at $7M+.

Maybe, if he plays for a few weeks or months and has an .800+ OPS, we can find someone willing to pay $7-9M a year for his services. Best case scenario, we trade him in May or June and pay about half of his remaining contract ($9M a year.)

Worst case: we end up just DFA'ing him, at some point, this year.

I doubt we feel enough pressure, right now, to just get what we can in a winter trade. It would help to open a roster slot for a top 3 prospect, but I do not think Brez feels rushed to do this.

Maybe a trade for a higher or near the same salary dump player is our best chance to unload him, but I have yet to find a match that makes sense for the other team. Why does STL (Arenado) want Yoshida? Why does AZ (Monty) want Yoshida? Why does SEA (Castillo- not really a "dump") want Yoshida?

SD (Darvish or Musgrove?) No.

HOU (McCullers?) They don't need a DH.

LAA (Trout or Rendon) Maybe, but why do we want to pay more?

TEX (deGrom?) Doubtful

SFG (Ray?) Who knows?

LA would trade Rendon before you finished his name in the request.

Breslow:  So I was wondering about a trade involving Anthony Ren…

Minasian: Done! He’s all yours!

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

He was called up multiple times.  Even played in 99 games from 2014-2016, and put up crazy good DRS numbers for that stretch.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castiru02.shtml

After DD DFAd him and left him to rot in Worcester, THEN he was removed from the 40 man roster.  But he was certainly on it for quite a while…

I have clearly forgotten the ballad of Rusney Castillo.