Article: To Trade or Not to Trade: Masataka Yoshida

[Adam Morgan]

There's reason to believe that Masataka Yoshida's best days are ahead of him. Will that help him stay in Boston, or help the Red Sox trade him away?

With free agents quickly coming off the board, it looks like the Red Sox' best chance of adding this offseason will come via trade. In order to add via trade though, you have to subtract. Names like Marcelo Myers, Kyle Teel, Tristan Casas, and Wilyer Abreu have all been mentioned in trade rumors. While Boston fans groan every time one of these names gets brought up, everyone seems to agree on one name: Masataka Yoshida. The outfielder turned full-time DH has drawn the ire of many fans and pundits alike. With the roster crunch coming at Fenway soon, it might seem to make sense to ship out Yoshida but is it a smart move?

At 31 years old, Yoshida is fairly old for this Red Sox team. At 28, Boston had the ninth-lowest average age in baseball last season. That seems like it will only be getting lower with players like Tyler O’Neill and Danny Jansen leaving via free agency and likely having their spots filled by high-level prospects. With Yoshida signed through 2027 and earning roughly $18 million per season, the contract is not enviable. If the Red Sox trade Yoshida, it is likely to be a “bad contract for bad contract” swap or Boston will have to pay down a significant portion of his deal to get anything worthwhile in return.

According to Baseball Reference, Yoshida has posted 1.4 WAR in each of his first two seasons. FanGraphs is a little more bearish in its assessment, crediting him with 0.6 and 0.8 fWAR respectively, but Steamer predicts Masa to be worth 1.2 fWAR in 2025. In terms of MLB experience, the prediction seems to be in line with general trends for Japanese players transitioning from NPB. Seiya Suzuki just finished his third season in the majors and it was his best so far. Despite winning Rookie of the Year and MVP in his first season, Ichiro Suzuki’s best year was actually his fourth season in MLB. Kazuo Matsui is another Japanese-born player who put up his best numbers in his fourth MLB season. (Hideki Matsui was an exception to this small trend, as he performed best in his second, third, and fifth MLB seasons.) This is a very small sample size, but the point is that it's possible Yoshida could be headed for bigger and better things in the coming seasons.

Yoshida improved both his walk rate and his strikeout rate in 2024, and he was able to cut his groundball rate by a considerable margin. He didn't hit the ball as hard, but it certainly seems reasonable to chalk that up to his shoulder injury, and he still managed to provide more value despite playing in 32 fewer games. Assuming he's able to recover fully from his surgery, things are trending in the right direction. The question remains: will Boston be paying him to play for the Red Sox or paying him to play for another team? Personally, I wouldn’t mind giving Yoshida another chance if not just to hear Lou Merloni marvel over his excellent running form.

 

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[moonslav59]

I think the best time to trade Yoshida may be this summer, but he will have to be showing he can hit near .800 to make a difference over trading him, this winter. Either way, we will have to pay more than half of his remaining contract, and maybe 70-80%.

Finding a taker is the toughest task. Taking on  a big or bigger contract might work, if we get back an overpaid pitcher who still has some hopes of being helpful. The problem with that is, when a team is looking to dump a grossly overpaid player who still has some value, they usually want a full dump. They are not looking to just save a couple million a year.

To me, STL might be our best hope, and getting Arenado back to play 1B (NOT !B!!!!) would greatly improve our defense and our offense vs LHPs. He is clearly in decline, and may drop off a cliff, at any moment, but Yoshida at DH for us, forces Casas and Devers to play a position. Plus, I'm not sure Yoshida is any better than Anthony, Campbell and others who are looking for a position to play. Also, Refsnyder hits LHPs better than anyone on the team, right now, and his best position is a DH platoon.

I'd offer STL some secondary prospects, and maybe even Crawford, if we add another SP'er like Burnes, Manaea, Flaherty or Pivetta. Arendao is owed more, but COL pays $5M x 2 years of his deal and his third year is $15M vs Yoshida's $18M. Just get it done!

I'd try to keep Arias, but if the plan is to keep Mayer and Romero, I'd be okay with making Arias part of the deal. We might offer Bleis, Cespedes, Romero or JH Garcia, instead. I'd hesitate to trade 2 of these guys, especially if one is Arias, but I might offer two from the others, with one being Romero.

I'm not sure that gets it done. We might have to add Fitts, Dobbins or Sandlin to the list of who STL can take.

[Hugh2]

The fact of the matter is if you're trading Yoshida, you either have to swallow all the money, swallow 2/3 of the money and get back a c level prospect in low A, or trade away all of the money and give up a high end prospects E.G. Arias/Bleis+++ to get him off the roster.

If Yoshida has a healthy season, he goes into next year under contract for only 2 more years.  He becomes 10X more tradeable. 

It's not like the dude can't hit, and he'd be a good bet to hit well if he could stay healthy.  I'd try to get him right, get him some at bats and see if a better deal is to be had at the deadline or come 2025 offseason. 

At the same time, as much as it would hurt, I wouldn't be opposed to selling him with a prospect packaged up if they were making room for a big right handed bat in the lineup E.G. Bregman, Arenado, Santander etc.  Especially if they were buying more pitching too. 

Losing someone like Bleis or Arias+ would be a sting, but the money would be there for both a RH bat and another #2 starter.

[Hugh2]

FTR I've been very much in the "you can't trade Yoshida camp" but I would be willing to accept the hard cost of parting with him if they were spending the money to improve the big club roster. 

[smokedogg1982]

It's not that i dislike Yoshida,  he is a good contact hitter who doesn't strikeout, but he is wrong handed, awful in the field and blocking more talented players. 

[Bellhorn04]

We have 3 left-handed DH types in Devers, Casas and Yoshida.  It's not ideal.  This was one of the dumbest signings ever.  

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We have 3 left-handed DH types in Devers, Casas and Yoshida.  It's not ideal.  This was one of the dumbest signings ever.  

A slow, poor defensive contact LHB with no power at Fenway. How could it go wrong?  

[moonslav59]

I've read of a couple suggested offers for Arenado that do not include Yoshida, but they do include STL including hefty chunks of cash that could be subbed out for Yoshida, assuming STL is interested. Here is one:

Cespedes and Fitts for Helsley, Graceffo & Arenado + $15M. (COL pays $5M x 2 for him, as it is.) I don't see why STL would give us Helsley, but I'd do this trade by giving Yoshida with no Helsley.

I'd offer Arias, Cespedes, Fitts & Yoshida for Helsley & Arenado and no money. Arenado is owed $32M, $27M and $15 or $74M/3 - $10M COL pays= $64M/3 ($25.5M AAV for 2 years.) We owe Yoshida $54M/3. STL "saves $10M plus what Helsley will cost.

SI reported this possible offer:

Bleis, Fitts & Yoshida for Arenado

They go on to say this, and I agree, "However, to this point, Boston has stayed strong that they're not moving Devers off of his position. If that's the case, the trade doesn't much sense.  "

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

A slow, poor defensive contact LHB with no power at Fenway. How could it go wrong?  

That formula did work out before with Swamp Shark movie star Wade Boggs…

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We have 3 left-handed DH types in Devers, Casas and Yoshida.  It's not ideal.  This was one of the dumbest signings ever.  

3 left-handed DH types plus a DH only RHB in Refsnyder. That makes 4 DH types not just on the 40, but on the 26, as well. That is already 2-3 too many.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

That formula did work out before with Swamp Shark movie star Wade Boggs…

Boggs was a bad defender? Baseball Reference says otherwise. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I just gotta say while I never mind giving up good prospects to acquire an All-Star starting pitcher, I'm against giving away any prospects just to convince another team to take Yoshida. 

Sorry, that was too passive. I am absolutely positively 100 percent apoplectic with the idea of giving away any ballplayers who may help the Red Sox in the future -- and that includes Masataka Yoshida. 

Yoshi may be the worst free agent signing in the Bloom Era (and he had a lot of competition), but he's not the worst DH in team history, and he's not clogging up the roster of an otherwise World Series contender. He may even contribute as part of a solution to what everyone forgets is still one of the worst whiffing offenses in baseball (even without Tyler O'Neill).

Boston has so many other holes still to fill and worry about.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Boggs was a bad defender? Baseball Reference says otherwise. 

Baseball-Reference also gave Yoshida -0.9 dWAR for playing 1 inning in LF when nothing got hit to him.  Thats your source?
 

Early on in Boggs career, he was a very sloppy third baseman.  He did improve in time…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just gotta say while I never mind giving up good prospects to acquire an All-Star starting pitcher, I'm against giving away any prospects just to convince another team to take Yoshida. 

Sorry, that was too passive. I am absolutely positively 100 percent apoplectic with the idea of giving away any ballplayers who may help the Red Sox in the future -- and that includes Masataka Yoshida. 

Yoshi may be the worst free agent signing in the Bloom Era (and he had a lot of competition), but he's not the worst DH in team history, and he's not clogging up the roster of an otherwise World Series contender. He may even contribute as part of a solution to what everyone forgets is still one of the worst whiffing offenses in baseball (even without Tyler O'Neill).

Boston has so many other holes still to fill and worry about.

The Sox aren’t trading Yoshida.  Not coming off surgery.  He’ll be the DH once activated and platoon with Refsnyder in that role.

Add a RHH left fielder (Teoscar? Taylor Ward? Nick Castellanos?) and a catcher that can be had on a longer deal than 1 year.  And the lineup will be complete, barring any re-arrangement for defensive purposes…

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox aren’t trading Yoshida.  Not coming off surgery.  He’ll be the DH once activated and platoon with Refsnyder in that role.

And if they don't trade Casas we're going to be stuck with bad defense at 1B and 3B for another season.

Holding onto Yoshida any longer feels like postponing the inevitable.

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And if they don't trade Casas we're going to be stuck with bad defense at 1B and 3B for another season.

Holding onto Yoshida any longer feels like postponing the inevitable.

They have obviously tried to trade Casas already.  If they’re actually moving him, then Yoshida becomes more necessary. 
 

My prediction would be that when the season starts, Casas will be at 1b and Devers at 3b and they’ll ignore the defense, and that decision will be independent of Yoshida.  And Yoshida was hitting pretty well until he hurt his shoulder…

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just gotta say while I never mind giving up good prospects to acquire an All-Star starting pitcher, I'm against giving away any prospects just to convince another team to take Yoshida. 

Sorry, that was too passive. I am absolutely positively 100 percent apoplectic with the idea of giving away any ballplayers who may help the Red Sox in the future -- and that includes Masataka Yoshida. 

Yoshi may be the worst free agent signing in the Bloom Era (and he had a lot of competition), but he's not the worst DH in team history, and he's not clogging up the roster of an otherwise World Series contender. He may even contribute as part of a solution to what everyone forgets is still one of the worst whiffing offenses in baseball (even without Tyler O'Neill).

Boston has so many other holes still to fill and worry about.

I agree. Just dump Yoshida and eat his whole contract. It's just money. 

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

Baseball-Reference also gave Yoshida -0.9 dWAR for playing 1 inning in LF when nothing got hit to him.  Thats your source?
 

Early on in Boggs career, he was a very sloppy third baseman.  He did improve in time…

Do you have a better defensive source than Baseball Reference? Maybe your EYE TEST, notin? Please remind me what his defense looked like early on in 1985. Were you in elementary school at that time? 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

They have obviously tried to trade Casas already.  If they’re actually moving him, then Yoshida becomes more necessary. 
 

My prediction would be that when the season starts, Casas will be at 1b and Devers at 3b and they’ll ignore the defense, and that decision will be independent of Yoshida.  And Yoshida was hitting pretty well until he hurt his shoulder…

He hit well in July and August.  The rest of the year he stunk.  

He won't be missed.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He hit well in July and August.  The rest of the year he stunk.  

He won't be missed.

I think he won’t be missed because he won’t be gone…

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, notin said:

I think he won’t be missed because he won’t be gone…

Well, the good news is they can just outright release him any time...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He hit well in July and August.  The rest of the year he stunk.  

He won't be missed.

He's always been a guy who hits well in short spurts and then disappears. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He's always been a guy who hits well in short spurts and then disappears. 

In 2023 he got tired/had adjustment issues.  In 2024 he had injury issues/couldn't hit lefties.  

Just an egregiously misguided signing.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Do you have a better defensive source than Baseball Reference? Maybe your EYE TEST, notin? Please remind me what his defense looked like early on in 1985. Were you in elementary school at that time? 

1985?  The year he cut down on his errors by getting to fewer batted balls?  And you were 7?  Maybe?

 

B-R does give him 1 dWAR-ish for most of his years back then, which is good.  Fangraphs doesn’t bother backfilling that data, but they do give him excellent defensive runs marks.  So maybe he’s one of those guys that later evaluation techniques assessto be much better.

Of course, he was still a left-handed hitter with limited power…

 

 

 

 

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, the good news is they can just outright release him any time...

They can also demote him to Worcester, as he has options. 
 

And they might when he comes back if he misses time early on.  But he’s not getting traded…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

1985?  The year he cut down on his errors by getting to fewer batted balls?  And you were 7?  Maybe?

B-R does give him 1 dWAR-ish for most of his years back then, which is good.  Fangraphs doesn’t bother backfilling that data, but they do give him excellent defensive runs marks.  So maybe he’s one of those guys that later evaluation techniques assessto be much better.

Of course, he was still a left-handed hitter with limited power…

Yes, I was young. That's why I most certainly rely on other sources. When those other sources tell me he wasn't a complete dog in the field, I'm going to assume he wasn't a net negative the way you did. 🤷‍♀️

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just gotta say while I never mind giving up good prospects to acquire an All-Star starting pitcher, I'm against giving away any prospects just to convince another team to take Yoshida. 

Sorry, that was too passive. I am absolutely positively 100 percent apoplectic with the idea of giving away any ballplayers who may help the Red Sox in the future -- and that includes Masataka Yoshida. 

Yoshi may be the worst free agent signing in the Bloom Era (and he had a lot of competition), but he's not the worst DH in team history, and he's not clogging up the roster of an otherwise World Series contender. He may even contribute as part of a solution to what everyone forgets is still one of the worst whiffing offenses in baseball (even without Tyler O'Neill).

Boston has so many other holes still to fill and worry about.

I'm only for doing a Yoshida dump, if it forces Casas/Devers to share the 1B/DH duties. That would be a huge plus to every pitcher on our team. It would be like adding a pitcher. It would also allow both Casas and Devers to "rest" as a DH and play more games and get more PAs, than if they played 150-155 games at corner IF. That is one big plus.

Opening up a 40 man and 26 man roster slot for Campbell or Anthony would be another major boost, although the 40 man part can be done in other ways. The money saved part could help us improve at another slot.

It's not just about prospects lost, although I get your point. Maybe trading Casas (and others) for pitching, moving Devers to 1B and just going with Yoshida-Ref at DH is better, although losing Casas and O'Neill's bats could be a major blow.

[notin]

53 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He hit well in July and August.  The rest of the year he stunk.  

He won't be missed.

Very cursory and misleading summary.

He came out slow for the first 2 weeks in April.  Then started crushing the ball (.953 OPS the last 20 games), got hurt and missed 6 weeks.  Struggled his first 15 games back in June.  Then crushed again (.899 OPS) through July and August.  And at some point tore  his labrum and struggled playing through it.

 

He has talent and he can hit.  He needs to stay healthy…

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Very cursory and misleading summary.

He came out slow for the first 2 weeks in April.  Then started crushing the ball (.953 OPS the last 20 games), got hurt and missed 6 weeks.  Struggled his first 15 games back in June.  Then crushed again (.899 OPS) through July and August.  And at some point tore  his labrum and struggled playing through it.

 

He has talent and he can hit.  He needs to stay healthy…

He has a ceiling of 1.5 WAR.  The numbers bear that out.  I'm not ripping him just for the sake of it.  He's a below average player and a roster clog.  Sucks but that's the way it is.  

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He has a ceiling of 1.5 WAR.  The numbers bear that out.  I'm not ripping him just for the sake of it.  He's a below average player and a roster clog.  Sucks but that's the way it is.  

I think it is possible for him to be a 2.0+ WAR guy, but 1.5 seems fair enough.

Factor in adjustment to the culture and injuries, and he might have been a 2.0.