Article: The Red Sox Want To Play in the Deep End of the Free Agent Pitching Market

[Alex Mayes]

Hot on the heels of the Willy Adames news, the Red Sox are interested in bringing in multiple free agent starting pitchers. 

To paraphrase Smashmouth, “Well, the news starts coming and it don’t stop coming.” It seems that the Boston Red Sox have decided to kick off Thanksgiving week with a bang. To go along with the news about Willy Adames, the one and only Tyler Milliken has added this little tidbit of information:

 

The Red Sox are looking to add two of the top free agent pitchers, specifically targeting left-handers Max Fried and Blake Snell, to go with left-handed trade target Garrett Crochet. Either the front office is making contingency plans should they fail to land the White Sox ace or they anticipate that deal getting done then bringing in another left-handed pitcher along with Corbin Burnes. Let’s take a look at two possible scenarios. 

1. Sign Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell

This option is the biggest splash in pitching free agency the team could make. The Sox would bring in two ace-level pitchers, one righty andone lefty. Either one would slot in as the de facto ace of the rotation and what was formerly a weakness would suddenly be a strength. A rotation of Burnes, Snell, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito would be formidable. Burnes has proven throughout the 2024 season that he is more than capable of pitching in the AL East. Within the division, Burnes sported a 22.6 strikeout rate, 7.4 walk rate, and a .264 wOBA. His spray chart against the AL East adds nine more probable home runs in 2024, but as we know, the Green Monster would limit some of that damage as well. Blake Snell’s stats against the AL East show a similar strikeout percentage, 23.3%, but an elevated walk rate, 13.3%. The sample size against the division is much smaller for Snell but also had success.

2. Trade for Garrett Crochet, sign Corbin Burnes, sign Blake Snell or Max Fried 

This option would be the biggest splash in the pitching market, maybe in the history of baseball. Bringing in three ace-caliber pitchers (or at least two aces and one young pitcher with all the makings of an ace) would signal that the Red Sox are dead set on competing not just for a division title, but for a World Series title. Free agent position players would be itching to take the field behind what could be the most potent starting rotation in the majors. We’ve already broken down Burnes and Snell, so let’s look at what Crochet and Fried offer to Boston. The pitch totals against the AL East for both pitchers are close enough that I’m comfortable looking at them head-to-head. They both threw roughly 10% of their total pitches against the division and ran similar strikeout percentages, Fried at 31.6% and Crochet at 29.8%. Fried holds the edge, by a large margin, on walk percentage though, 2.5% against Crochet’s 7.0. Their wOBA runs close enough as well, Fried at .225 and Crochet at .256. Adding both Crochet and Fried to the rotation gives the Red Sox another strikeout pitcher in Crochet and a contact pitcher in Fried who still can get people to strikeout when necessary.

There’s something else in that tweet though, the last sentence: “No one is boasting about their plans to suddenly spend money and dive into the deepest end of the free-agent waters more than Red Sox.” What a line. In early October, Red Sox president Sam Kennedy went on MassLive’s Fenway Rundown podcast and I wrote up an overview of some comments that stood out to me. At the time, like most other fans, I took what Kennedy had to say with a grain of salt and mostly responded ‘prove it’ to anything that sounded like the Red Sox were willing to go big. It seems, about six weeks later, the Red Sox are on the verge of proving it. This doesn’t feel like a full-throttle moment anymore. The Boston Red Sox are in on Juan Soto, they want to bring in two of the top tier free agent pitchers, and there is interest in Willy Adames and Alex Bregman. They're an almost perfect match for the White Sox in a trade for Garrett Crochet, even if the price seems to have gone up from the original discussions earlier this offseason.

Buckle up Red Sox fans. We may be looking at just the beginning of what could be the biggest offseason in franchise history. Here’s to hoping. 

[Editor's Note: Please direct all complaints about the Smashmouth reference to @iamalexmayes.bsky.social. We had nothing to do with it.]

 

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[Larry Cook]

Offseason to do list: 

1.) sign free agent fried 

2.) trade abreau, winkowski, Hamilton, and Priester  to Seattle for Bryce miller 

3.) trade yoshida, Valdez and Guerrero to St. Louis for Arenado and helsey 

Starting rotation - fried. Houck, Miller, Bello and giolito

Position players. LF - Duran, CF rafeala, RF Anthony, 3b - Arenado, SS - Story, 2b - Campbell, 1b - cassas, C - Wong 

[moonslav59]

It does seem like we can improve, greatly with 2 major signings and 1 major trade. If we make it 4 major deals, we could be a top 4-5 favorite.

Burnes or Fried

Soto or Bregman.Adames (move Devers to 1B if not Soto)

Tanner Scott

Trade Casas (if Devers moved to 1B) and/or Abreu and others for a SP

[Duran Is The Man]

Snell to the Dodgers. LOL... they're going to own every good player in MLB before it's over with. Henry f***ing around instead of getting serious.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Snell to the Dodgers. LOL... they're going to own every good player in MLB before it's over with. Henry f***ing around instead of getting serious.

I'm glad Snell went somewhere else.

I'd rather get Fried, Burnes or trade for someone.

I'd rather get 2 from Nate, Pivetta, Flaherty, Severino, Martinez, Manaea than Snell, or one plus Scott.

If we end up being shut out, I won't be crying about Snell.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Offseason to do list: 

1.) sign free agent fried 

2.) trade abreau, winkowski, Hamilton, and Priester  to Seattle for Bryce miller 

3.) trade yoshida, Valdez and Guerrero to St. Louis for Arenado and helsey 

Starting rotation - fried. Houck, Miller, Bello and giolito

Position players. LF - Duran, CF rafeala, RF Anthony, 3b - Arenado, SS - Story, 2b - Campbell, 1b - cassas, C - Wong 

The Seattle Mariners won't trade Bryce Miller for spare parts ... quantity won't compensate for the proposed offer's lack of quality.

[moonslav59]

So, according to MLBTR projections:

Snell $182M/5 is $22M over the $160M/5 call.

Kikuchi  $63M/3 is $3M over the $60M/3 call.

It's hard to tell if costs are going up a lot, or not.

Who will be the next signing?

Soto?

Burnes or Fried?

Bregman or Adames?

Teoscar or Scott?

Flaherty, Manaea, Nate, Martinez, Pivetta or Severino?

Alonso, Walker, Santander or O'Neill

Hoffman, Estevez or Holmes, 

 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Seattle Mariners won't trade Bryce Miller for spare parts ... quantity won't compensate for the proposed offer's lack of quality.

Agreed. SEA is not in a position to make a 3 for 1 trade. Even 2 for 1 may be too much.

Abreu & Crawford might be close.

Mayer straight up?

[Randy Red Sox]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. SEA is not in a position to make a 3 for 1 trade. Even 2 for 1 may be too much.

Abreu & Crawford might be close.

Mayer straight up?

Seattle has said many timers they are NOT into trading a SP.  Castillo MIGHT be the only one available., Open up your DAMN wallet Henry for either Fried or Burness. We have been hoarding our top prospects because you don't want to spend $$$

[Randy Red Sox]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, according to MLBTR projections:

Snell $182M/5 is $22M over the $160M/5 call.

Kikuchi  $63M/3 is $3M over the $60M/3 call.

It's hard to tell if costs are going up a lot, or not.

Who will be the next signing?

Soto?

Burnes or Fried?

Bregman or Adames?

Teoscar or Scott?

Flaherty, Manaea, Nate, Martinez, Pivetta or Severino?

Alonso, Walker, Santander or O'Neill

Hoffman, Estevez or Holmes, 

 

whoever we can get on the cheap.

[Randy Red Sox]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm glad Snell went somewhere else.

I'd rather get Fried, Burnes or trade for someone.

I'd rather get 2 from Nate, Pivetta, Flaherty, Severino, Martinez, Manaea than Snell, or one plus Scott.

If we end up being shut out, I won't be crying about Snell.

yeah let's call it a win if we can bring back Pivetta right??

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

The Seattle Mariners won't trade Bryce Miller for spare parts ... quantity won't compensate for the proposed offer's lack of quality.

Fair enough! The point is we have a lot of pieces. Bres-slow just has to put the right pieces together to get miller! 

[Hitch]

As I posted in another thread I don't think there's much chance at all we sign two of the top free agent starters. 

 

It'll be one, and likely a trade for another, younger arm.

 

We still need RH power and bull pen help.

 

We'll spend, but we aren't going to go mental.

[notin]

9 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Snell to the Dodgers. LOL... they're going to own every good player in MLB before it's over with. Henry f***ing around instead of getting serious.

In hindsight, that match was obvious.

 

Snell is a from the west coast, which means there’s a significant chance his father is Steve Garvey.  Or Sid from the Ice Age movies…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

In hindsight, that match was obvious.

 

Snell is a from the west coast, which means there’s a significant chance his father is Steve Garvey.  Or Sid from the Ice Age movies…

Snell was also assured by LA if he's throwing a World Series shutout into the 6th inning that they'd leave him in...

... for one more batter.

[harmony]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Seattle has said many timers they are NOT into trading a SP.  Castillo MIGHT be the only one available., Open up your DAMN wallet Henry for either Fried or Burness. We have been hoarding our top prospects because you don't want to spend $$$

Does Blake Snell's reported contract increase the trade value of Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo?

Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $74.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

[Duran Is The Man]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, according to MLBTR projections:

Snell $182M/5 is $22M over the $160M/5 call.

Kikuchi  $63M/3 is $3M over the $60M/3 call.

It's hard to tell if costs are going up a lot, or not.

Who will be the next signing?

Soto?

Burnes or Fried?

Bregman or Adames?

Teoscar or Scott?

Flaherty, Manaea, Nate, Martinez, Pivetta or Severino?

Alonso, Walker, Santander or O'Neill

Hoffman, Estevez or Holmes, 

 

i fully expect Henry to resign Pivetta and call it a day. the sham goes on.

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Seattle has said many timers they are NOT into trading a SP.  Castillo MIGHT be the only one available., Open up your DAMN wallet Henry for either Fried or Burness. We have been hoarding our top prospects because you don't want to spend $$$

SEA is known for making trades that seem to come out of nowhere.

They know their rotation is their strength, and that they are likely over-valued due to their numbers at home helping them look better than they maybe are.

I do agree on Castillo, since they could then use the "savings" on acquiring another SP'er to replace a guy that may already be on the decline.

I'd love to see us get Castillo, despite the decline risk, if we can include Yoshida, somehow, but then that takes away the big savings part of the SEA half. Yoshida + _____ for Castillo & Garver might be a framework to work with. That would save them a lot. It would also cost us less than signing Burnes or Fried, and we'd rid ourselves of Yoshida and open the DH slot for Casas/Devers and allow Devers to play 1B, unless it is Yoshida + Casas for Castillo & Garver.

[harmony]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

SEA is known for making trades that seem to come out of nowhere.

They know their rotation is their strength, and that they are likely over-valued due to their numbers at home helping them look better than they maybe are.

I do agree on Castillo, since they could then use the "savings" on acquiring another SP'er to replace a guy that may already be on the decline.

I'd love to see us get Castillo, despite the decline risk, if we can include Yoshida, somehow, but then that takes away the big savings part of the SEA half. Yoshida + _____ for Castillo & Garver might be a framework to work with. That would save them a lot. It would also cost us less than signing Burnes or Fried, and we'd rid ourselves of Yoshida and open the DH slot for Casas/Devers and allow Devers to play 1B, unless it is Yoshida + Casas for Castillo & Garver.

Masataka Yoshida would likely be a deal-breaker in any trade proposal to the Seattle Mariners.

[Hitch]

16 minutes ago, harmony said:

Masataka Yoshida would likely be a deal-breaker in any trade proposal to the Seattle Mariners.

With most teams, I imagine. 

 

If we could give him away it would be a miracle and one we should all pray for.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, harmony said:

Masataka Yoshida would likely be a deal-breaker in any trade proposal to the Seattle Mariners.

As with any team, and as I mentioned, one major reason SEA might trade Castillo would be to save enough money to spend on a younger SP'er. Taking on Yoshida kills that main advantage for SEA. Adding Garver makes a dent, but not enough. Adding Garver and Haniger might be closer.

Abreu + Yoshida for Castillo ($24.1, $24.1, $24.1), Garver ($12.5, $1M) & Haniger ($15.5.)

SEA sheds $52M for 2025, $25M for 2026 and $24M for 2027, while adding $18M x 3. They's save $27M, $7M and $6M a year. Is that enough?

The Sox would be essentially paying Castillo $27M, $7M and $6M and would lose Abreu (replaced by Anthony and maybe some OF time from Campbell) The Sox would have a back up catcher (Garver) who sucks on D as the bridge to Teel and a RHB OF'er (Haniger who is in decline.)

I do not think this trade suggestion is a sure No from SEA's side. They save $40M and may view Castillo as in decline. They's gain a roster spot on the 40 to add a SP'er and would have a much better RF'er in Abreu.

 

[harmony]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As with any team, and as I mentioned, one major reason SEA might trade Castillo would be to save enough money to spend on a younger SP'er. Taking on Yoshida kills that main advantage for SEA. Adding Garver makes a dent, but not enough. Adding Garver and Haniger might be closer.

Abreu + Yoshida for Castillo ($24.1, $24.1, $24.1), Garver ($12.5, $1M) & Haniger ($15.5.)

SEA sheds $52M for 2025, $25M for 2026 and $24M for 2027, while adding $18M x 3. They's save $27M, $7M and $6M a year. Is that enough?

The Sox would be essentially paying Castillo $27M, $7M and $6M and would lose Abreu (replaced by Anthony and maybe some OF time from Campbell) The Sox would have a back up catcher (Garver) who sucks on D as the bridge to Teel and a RHB OF'er (Haniger who is in decline.)

I do not think this trade suggestion is a sure No from SEA's side. They save $40M and may view Castillo as in decline. They's gain a roster spot on the 40 to add a SP'er and would have a much better RF'er in Abreu.

 

Will Luis Castillo's trade value be upgraded after Blake Snell signed a five-year, $182 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers?

Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $74.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

Their contrasting 2024 numbers cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias enter the calculation?

Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, harmony said:

Will Luis Castillo's trade value be upgraded after Blake Snell signed a five-year, $182 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers?

Castillo, who has a no-trade clause, has three years and $74.5 million remaining on his contract with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Snell and Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers.

Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts.

Their contrasting 2024 numbers cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias enter the calculation?

Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value.

Snell got what was expected. I don't see Castillo's value increasing, because of his signing.

How much will Abreu's value go up, when the older and worse defender Teoscar signs for megabucks?

I think you may be undervaluing another Sox player in Abreu.

[harmony]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Snell got what was expected. I don't see Castillo's value increasing, because of his signing.

How much will Abreu's value go up, when the older and worse defender Teoscar signs for megabucks?

I think you may be undervaluing another Sox player in Abreu.

Alternatively, Wilyer Abreu could be overvalued as a platoon candidate who posted a wRC+ of 75 after August 15.

Each valuation is within the realm of possibility.

Abreu indeed could improve the Seattle outfield defense alongside Julio Rodriguez and Victor Robles with Luke Raley moving to first base and Randy Arozarena to designated hitter, However, the Mariners have greater needs in the infield.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, harmony said:

Alternatively, Wilyer Abreu could be overvalued as a platoon candidate who posted a wRC+ of 75 after August 15.

Each valuation is within the realm of possibility.

Abreu indeed could improve the Seattle outfield defense alongside Julio Rodriguez and Victor Robles with Luke Raley moving to first base and Randy Arozarena to designated hitter, However, the Mariners have greater needs in the infield.

Yet, when we suggest a Mayer or Campbell trade to SEA, you say you have enough infielders better than they are.

[drewski6]

You can get around BTV pay-wall by searching for the player , and just grabbing his TV from a proposed trade. Hes at -6.  Regressing? Maybe. But 2 years ago he was one of the very best pitchers in baseball.  And that contract isnt bad and only has 3 years left.

Id be interested at a price of -6 trade value units.  And not to dump Yoshida, because I want Castillo because I think hes good.

[harmony]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yet, when we suggest a Mayer or Campbell trade to SEA, you say you have enough infielders better than they are.

Like Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell, Seattle's well-regarded infield prospects probably are not MLB-ready.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

Like Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell, Seattle's well-regarded infield prospects probably are not MLB-ready.

But Mayer and Campbell are ML ready, despite not being Rule 5 eligible.

[harmony]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You can get around BTV pay-wall by searching for the player , and just grabbing his TV from a proposed trade. Hes at -6.  Regressing? Maybe. But 2 years ago he was one of the very best pitchers in baseball.  And that contract isnt bad and only has 3 years left.

Id be interested at a price of -6 trade value units.  And not to dump Yoshida, because I want Castillo because I think hes good.

The Seattle Mariners are highly unlikely to trade Luis Castillo at a negative value, especially in light of the five-year, $182 million contract reportedly landed by Blake Snell.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

The Seattle Mariners are highly unlikely to trade Luis Castillo at a negative value, especially in light of the five-year, $182 million contract reportedly landed by Blake Snell.

Dipoto surprises you, every year.