Article: Red Sox Free Agent Targets: Sean Manaea and the Qualifying Offer Question

[Alex Mayes]

Sean Manaea made huge strides as a member of the New York Mets in 2024. Should the Boston Red Sox be interested in bringing him into the rotation for 2025? 

Sean Manaea may be the most improved pitcher in the second tier of pitching free agents. He changed his delivery this season in New York after watching Chris Sale. He dropped his arm slot from a 28-degree angle in the first half of the season to an 18-degree angle in the second half and saw incredible results. He will be a highly sought-after pitcher on the open market, even after he declined the qualifying offer the Mets extended. Any team that signs Manaea will have to give up draft capital. 

There are many pros to signing someone like Manaea to the Red Sox roster. He shows six pitches but concentrates on his sinker, sweeper, and change-up. He uses a four-seamer in conjunction with his change-up, but it sits at the same average velocity as his sinker, so it doesn’t play up unless he’s featuring it behind his off-speed pitches. He went 12-6 on the season with 15 quality starts. On the season, Manaea had a 24.9% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate. Compared to the top three starters in the rotation last year; Tanner Houck (20.8%/6.2%), Brayan Bello (21.8%/9.1%), and Kutter Crawford (23.1%/6.7%) Manaea has a higher strikeout rate than all of them but walks more batters than all but Bello. As currently constructed, the Red Sox could use a reliable left-handed starter in their rotation.

However, the lefty may not make sense for the Red Sox to sign for a handful of reasons. To start, declining the Qualifying Offer may already take him out of the running. Sure, when Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will receive a compensatory pick, so the argument could be made that Manaea would be worth giving up a pick to sign, but typically, that’s not how the Red Sox have operated. There are few players that the Red Sox should consider giving up draft capital to sign, and Sean Manaea could easily be on the bubble of that list. He could be the final piece should the Sox trade for Garrett Crochet but miss out on Blake Snell, Max Fried, or Corbin Burnes.

On top of that, his spray chart at Fenway Park doesn’t look great. Long fly balls that turned into outs suddenly turned into home runs. The Green Monster will knock some of those fly balls down into singles and doubles, but it could potentially take a pitcher who has figured things out and inflate his numbers exponentially. 

If we look at the numbers over the last five seasons, some potentially concerning trends begin to emerge. I hopped on Baseball Savant and pulled Manaea numbers against the 20 qualified right-handed hitters with the highest pull rates since 2020. Specifically, I was looking at strikeout rate, walk rate, on-base percentage, and wOBA. From 2020 to 2023, those batters had a .419 wOBA and struck out 21.8% of the time. However, it seems as though Manaea may have turned the corner in 2024 after lowering his arm slot. This past season his strikeout rate went up to 33.3%, and his wOBA clocked in at an exceptionally low .160. Those 20 righties batted just .083 against him. Despite a small sample size, those are encouraging numbers.

Sean Manaea could be a great fit in Boston next year. Changing his arm slot seems to have unlocked a new level of dominance for him. However, it remains to be seen if that arm slot change sticks past one season. Look for Manaea to get a multi-year contract, but the Boston Red Sox probably won’t be interested in his services unless they strike out on the top-tier starting pitching free agents. 

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[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like Manaea as a mid-rotation signing and as a southpaw that might cost around the same amount as a Pivetta replacement. Soto -- wherever he winds up -- can hit anyone, but Baltimore has a lot of young lefty swingers who will be threats in the division for a long time.

Manaea seemed like a natural recruit for Boston, since he thrived under Andrew Bailey in San Fran a few years ago. But if he improved last year because of actual changes made after the pair split, maybe not?

[drewski6]

Sure, hes over a k/inning and his FIP averages out to high 3's last 4 years. Hes a fine fallback if the bidding on Fried and Burnes gets nutty.

What I dont want to see ; however, is Fried and Burnes sign for 6-7 years at 28M and then we sign Manea for 3 years at 25M. Because then it will feel like we 90% of the AAV of a tier 1 FA for a tier 2 FA.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I like Manaea as a mid-rotation signing and as a southpaw that might cost around the same amount as a Pivetta replacement. Soto -- wherever he winds up -- can hit anyone, but Baltimore has a lot of young lefty swingers who will be threats in the division for a long time.

Manaea seemed like a natural recruit for Boston, since he thrived under Andrew Bailey in San Fran a few years ago. But if he improved last year because of actual changes made after the pair split, maybe not?

Huh? He was thrown to the pen in SF and only posted 0.3 bWAR. He wasn't very good in SF at all. His last good season was 2021 in OAK.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Huh? He was thrown to the pen in SF and only posted 0.3 bWAR. He wasn't very good in SF at all. His last good season was 2021 in OAK.

Maybe the credit should go to the Giants' other Bailey, catcher Patrick?

Last month in SF, 2023: "After regaining a regular spot in the Giants’ rotation on Sept. 12, Manaea allowed only six earned runs over 24 innings (2.25 ERA) in his final four starts"

Sounds a little like Sale's situation: looked pretty good in his last few starts, gets recruited in '24 by a new team, who he nearly pitches into the World Series (... except, Sale got hurt right before the playoffs).

Over the Monster: "he’s a strike-thrower and worked with Andrew Bailey in San Francisco. Bailey has emphasized limiting walks and competing in the strike zone. While Manaea isn’t going to dominate hitters over the middle of the plate, he’s not going to hand out a ton of free passes either."

I

[Hugh2]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Huh? He was thrown to the pen in SF and only posted 0.3 bWAR. He wasn't very good in SF at all. His last good season was 2021 in OAK.

Sean Manaea? He had a good season. 

3.47 ERA in 181 innings. 1.084 WHIP 6.6 H/9 and 9.1 SO/9.

 

I would certainly not waste a pick on him and sign him long term however. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Huh? He was thrown to the pen in SF and only posted 0.3 bWAR. He wasn't very good in SF at all. His last good season was 2021 in OAK.

I suggested Manaea last year (among plenty of others; I’m no prophet.), and you didn’t like him then.  Is this personal between you and Sean?

[Bellhorn04]

He chocked (sic) when the Mets needed him most.  😉

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

I suggested Manaea last year (among plenty of others; I’m no prophet.), and you didn’t like him then.  Is this personal between you and Sean?

Yes, whenever I don't like a player it's clearly personal. Just like all your bad baseball opinions are based on you having something personal against each player you don't like. 🙃

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He chocked (sic) when the Mets needed him most.  😉

Chocking isn't real. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Chocking isn't real. 

For an unfortunate few it is... but not repeatable.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, whenever I don't like a player it's clearly personal. Just like all your bad baseball opinions are based on you having something personal against each player you don't like. 🙃

I’m thinking of starting a Twitter War with Alex Bregman…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Sean Manaea? He had a good season. 

3.47 ERA in 181 innings. 1.084 WHIP 6.6 H/9 and 9.1 SO/9.

 

I would certainly not waste a pick on him and sign him long term however. 

I’d consider him an option if the Sox signed Soto or Adames and we’re losing that top pick anyway.  Losing some lower pick for Manaea doesn’t feel so  bad…

[mvp 78]

His first 3 postseason starts were ok. Game 6 sucked, but it happens. My opinions on Manaea aren't a reflection on how he pitched against the Dodgers in the postseason. He just has a history of being very productive one season and kind of sucking for a year or two. He's not a guy I want to pay 20M for.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m thinking of starting a Twitter War with Alex Bregman…

Fine with me. I don't want him on the Sox either. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fine with me. I don't want him on the Sox either. 

Since I have yet no reason not to still be a cynical Cyox fan, have to believe if they're signing an infielder, it will be Adames instead of Bregman.

Alex is a Boras guy, who somebody will have to overpay, and thus Adames makes more sense for this Boston baseball front office this decade... especially since they insist they're investing on pitching this offseason.

[Hugh2]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d consider him an option if the Sox signed Soto or Adames and we’re losing that top pick anyway.  Losing some lower pick for Manaea doesn’t feel so  bad…

Fair, especially if getting one back from the guy we all knew would get a QO, reject and sign a massive contract Nick Pivetta. 

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Fair, especially if getting one back from the guy we all knew would get a QO, reject and sign a massive contract Nick Pivetta. 

How massive are you thinking? 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How massive are you thinking? 

I was exaggerating. 

But I'll not be surprised if he's getting something in the 50-60 million range. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

I was exaggerating. 

But I'll not be surprised if he's getting something in the 50-60 million range. 

I’d be surprised if he went that cheap.  Kikuchi is an older and much lesser pitcher and he already got 3 yrs $63mill.  
 

Pivetta might be looking at $100mill+ over 4 years…

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d be surprised if he went that cheap.  Kikuchi is an older and much lesser pitcher and he already got 3 yrs $63mill.  
 

Pivetta might be looking at $100mill+ over 4 years…

Holy guacamole... 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d be surprised if he went that cheap.  Kikuchi is an older and much lesser pitcher and he already got 3 yrs $63mill.  
 

Pivetta might be looking at $100mill+ over 4 years…

I don't think he will eclipse that but you can easily be correct.  I was crucified months ago for suggesting he might even get $50, but he could easily be looking at at least $60 million plus.  I'd be very surprised if he got below $50

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

I don't think he will eclipse that but you can easily be correct.  I was crucified months ago for suggesting he might even get $50, but he could easily be looking at at least $60 million plus.  I'd be very surprised if he got below $50

Crucified?!?!? We definitely needed mods back then! 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crucified?!?!? We definitely needed mods back then! 

He got crucified figuratively by a bunch of dopes (that i wholeheartedly agreed with at the time) that figured Pivetta was a no-brainer to accept the QO.

 

I didn’t crucify Hugh, but I definitely didn’t agree.  And I thought he might have been a little high at the time…

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

He got crucified figuratively by a bunch of dopes (that i wholeheartedly agreed with at the time) that figured Pivetta was a no-brainer to accept the QO.

 

I didn’t crucify Hugh, but I definitely didn’t agree.  And I thought he might have been a little high at the time…

Even further back, last offseason I suggested him as a potential QO, I think people were more harsh back then. 

It's ok....I only cried a little. 

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d be surprised if he went that cheap.  Kikuchi is an older and much lesser pitcher and he already got 3 yrs $63mill.  
 

Pivetta might be looking at $100mill+ over 4 years…

Stop it! (LOL)

How can Pivetta get $100 mill+ just one season after Snell and Montgomery got stiffed?  Did Boras really torpedo his clients that badly?  

I thought maybe the Snell/Montgomery stiffing meant teams were getting a bit more leery of handing out megabucks to pitchers.

Kikuchi seems to have been revalued upwards based on the haul the Jays got for him, and then he kind of validated it with the Stros.  

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Pivetta will be 32 when the season starts.

I think he gets $57M/3 or $46M/2