Rumor: Could the Rangers and Red Sox Tango?

[Matthew Lenz]

The Rangers are reportedly looking to get under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. 

MLBTR goes on to suggest that arbitration eligible players such as RHP Dane Dunning, OF Leody Taveras, and 1B Nathaniel Lowe as possible non-tender candidates. This was not suggested, but one route is to tender these players and then try to trade them to recoup some value. As the Minnesota Twins learned last season with Kyle Farmer, that can be a risky route to take. Other big contracts include Jacob DeGrom and Jon Gray although, considering they already have a need for starting pitching, they may not be overly willing to move those players.

Looking at the arbitration players, the Red Sox could use any of the three players listed for some added flexibility and depth on their active roster or in their pitching staff. Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras grade out as slightly above average defenders with decent bats, while Dane Dunning has experience as a starter and reliever with moderate success in both roles.

Given Ray Davis' "number 1 priority" to get under the luxury tax threshold, any of these players could likely be had for a fairly cheap price in addition to their team friendly standing as arbitration eligible players.

Adolis Garcia is another name they could pursue as a buy-low candidate, although the Texas Rangers may be more inclined to keep outfielder who made headlines during their 2023 World Series run.

Should the Red Sox pursue any of the Texas Rangers?

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[Randy Red Sox]

Red Sox need to pursue a young 23-28 yr old QUALITY SP who is cost controlled for at least 2-3 years and can fit with-in the window of our young players and our prospects. We DO NOT NEED  a veteran #3 or 4 SP on a 1-2 year deal who then gets turned into the next veteran #3 or 4 SP on a 1-2 yr deal. Sox have made their bed of building through the system so let's go all in on that. plan.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Red Sox need to pursue a young 23-28 yr old QUALITY SP who is cost controlled for at least 2-3 years and can fit with-in the window of our young players and our prospects. We DO NOT NEED  a veteran #3 or 4 SP on a 1-2 year deal who then gets turned into the next veteran #3 or 4 SP on a 1-2 yr deal. Sox have made their bed of building through the system so let's go all in on that. plan.

I agree. I don't see Jon Gray as an upgrade over what we have. Andrew Chaffin (LHP) at $6.5M/1 might be nice, but he's 34 and has not been very good for 2 years (4.10 ERA/3.77 FIP/1.45 WHIP) Nate has a $20M player option... maybe.

I'm with Randy. I don't see a fit. We need pitching. Those everyday players aren't of interest, to me.

[notin]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. I don't see Jon Gray as an upgrade over what we have. Andrew Chaffin (LHP) at $6.5M/1 might be nice, but he's 34 and has not been very good for 2 years (4.10 ERA/3.77 FIP/1.45 WHIP) Nate has a $20M player option... maybe.

I'm with Randy. I don't see a fit. We need pitching. Those everyday players aren't of interest, to me.

I imagine they’ll just decline Chafin’s option.

Dunning had a rough 2024, but he lead the 2023 WS champions in wins and IP.

i would also imagine Tyler Mahle could be had for less than nothing.  But he’s close to deGrom on the dice roll metric...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Did any Baltimore spend last offseason pondering arb-eligible players they could add to round out their roster? Nope, the Orioles pulled off a major blockbuster trade for Corbin Burnes, a #1 bonafide ace starting pitcher. 

The O's won 101 games in 2023, but still spent from their deep prospect capital to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starter. Good thing, too, since none of the three pitchers who started at least 30 games in '23 were around or healthy enough to duplicate that -- and only Burnes started over 30, and led the club in innings pitched, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, WINS as the AL's starting pitcher in the '24 All-Star Game.

Do the Red Sox need to sign Corbin Burnes? Not specifically -- but they do need to sign or trade for a NUMBER ONE... even if it's someone Brez and Bailey target, tweak and elevate to that slot by March (like Lugo last year for the Royals, who were more "interested" in him than Boston).

To really compete with the Yankees and Orioles for the foreseeable future, the Red Sox need BOTH Fried and Crochet, southpaws to combat young lefty batters like Soto, Henderson and Holliday - stars who will be around for a long time.

The White Sox will take the best package offered for Crochet. I'd part with Duran, 28 (two years older than Soto) before Casas, 25 in January, or any of the top prospects, who are all 22 or younger. 

 

[moonslav59]

We do need an ace, and I agree we should trade for one rather than spend. 

I'd keep Duran over Casas, easily, but Casas alone, does not get us a solid SP'er, let alone an ace. (Duran would get us a better pitcher than Casas, by far.)

I'd see what we can get for Casas, Abreu, DHam and Dobbins/Wink.

[Bellhorn04]

32 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The White Sox will take the best package offered for Crochet. I'd part with Duran, 28 (two years older than Soto) before Casas, 25 in January, or any of the top prospects, who are all 22 or younger. 

The White Sox are surely a long way away from any possible window.  I would think the only thing they're interested in right now is very young and very inexpensive talent.    

[mvp 78]

I looked at their roster and really didn't see a fit. If Lowe was a RHB maybe. 

Adolis Garcia is just a rollercoaster of a player. His offensive highs and lows would drive us crazy. Pass. 

The pitchers I've seen mentioned as available don't really improve on what we have and just take away from the ability to acquire top level talent. If they wouldn't sign Eovaldi a few years ago, why go after him now? 

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure how the rangers are really a fit. 

Dunning isn't an ace, he's nice but he's sliding into a rotation that already has 3's and 4's.

I'd also love to stay away from DeGrome, Texas would have to pay us for him to come here. 

I think the stars are aligned to just go out and buy a pitcher again. 

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure the Rangers are even looking into giving up deGrom, just lesser names that have large dollars attached to them. If that's so, what's the point? 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure the Rangers are even looking into giving up deGrom, just lesser names that have large dollars attached to them. If that's so, what's the point? 

Ray Davis is going the John Henry route and wants to get under the tax threshold by any means. 

He's been reading moon's posts about nuttiness.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Red Sox need to pursue a young 23-28 yr old QUALITY SP who is cost controlled for at least 2-3 years 

Please name the teams that don't need a pitcher like this.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I looked at their roster and really didn't see a fit. If Lowe was a RHB maybe. 

Adolis Garcia is just a rollercoaster of a player. His offensive highs and lows would drive us crazy. Pass. 

The pitchers I've seen mentioned as available don't really improve on what we have and just take away from the ability to acquire top level talent. If they wouldn't sign Eovaldi a few years ago, why go after him now? 

They did go back to Nate, so I think they did want him, then. That was long ago. 

I hope we can do better than Nate, but he is still pretty good. I think we need to think about getting someone as good as Houck or better. I'm thinking we may end up settling on someone below Houck's projections, and I won't be surprised if we end up with a Criswell/Chase Anderson type addition, instead.

I'm not a big fan of Crochet, and I wonder if 2024 was just a fluke, but I do think adding him is better than anyone we've added since trading for Nate in 2018.

I could see trying to trade Mayer or maybe Casas + Abreu with maybe some lower level add-ons. The thing about the CWS is that their 40 man is so weak and shallow, that they might be one team that would take a 4 for 1 or 5 for 2 type trade that would open up roster slots for our Rule 5 guys plus not rule 5's like Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Meidroth and maybe eventually Teel.

DHam and Abreu would be FT players on the CWS. If we included Crawford in a trade for Crochet, he might be their #1. They may also prefer to take prospects, if they view their next "window" as being 2027 and beyond.

I'm also not a big fan of RHB Luis Roberts, but his $8.3M lux tax numbers looks pretty good. ('25 $15M, '26 is a $20M club option w $2M buyout, and '27 is the same option as '26.)

I'm guessing the CWS would like to shed Roberts salary, but they do not view him as a salary dump. I doubt anyone thinks his contract is "underwater."

Would this deal be acceptable by both teams?

Mayer, Abreu, DHam and Winckowski

for

Crochet (2 arbs remaining) & Roberts (Owed $17M/1 guaranteed)

Maybe Roberts comes to life in Fenway.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Please name the teams that don't need a pitcher like this.

All teams would like one- few have the pieces to offer to get one, or they do not want to part with top prospects.

[Bellhorn04]

Rumor had it that last offseason when the Sox were making inquiries on trades for young pitchers, other teams weren't interested unless the Sox were willing to part with at least one of Anthony, Mayer and Teel, and talks ended quickly. 

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Ray Davis is going the John Henry route and wants to get under the tax threshold by any means. 

He's been reading moon's posts about nuttiness.

If every star player gets a big contract, it has nothing to do with nuttiness and everything to do with market value. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would this deal be acceptable by both teams?

Mayer, Abreu, DHam and Winckowski

for

Crochet (2 arbs remaining) & Roberts (Owed $17M/1 guaranteed)

Maybe Roberts comes to life in Fenway.

I do that trade, but I don't think CWS does. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rumor had it that last offseason when the Sox were making inquiries on trades for young pitchers, other teams weren't interested unless the Sox were willing to part with at least one of Anthony, Mayer and Teel, and talks ended quickly. 

Henry really sees the near future of this time tied up in the big 3. It's cost savings and "sustainability." If a trade makes sense, they shouldn't end those talks IMO. 

The O's turned their fortunes around with young players, but that doesn't mean it will work as well in BOS.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I do that trade, but I don't think CWS does. 

Would they do Mayer & Casas (maybe add DHam & Wink?)

[mvp 78]

Maybe, but that's probably a trade I pass on. One arm injury and you are out two franchise pieces. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Orioles' starting pitchers at the top of their rotation on the 101-win 2023 AL East champs (w games started): Gibson 33, Kremer 32, Bradish 30.

2024 O's: Gibson gone, Kremer 24, Bradish 8. 

The same type of regression could afflict Crawford 33, Houck 30, Bello 30... with Pivetta 26, probably gone.

Getting Burnes saved Baltimore -- at least as far as keeping them a playoff team. 

Who knows what will happen if the Red Sox keep diddling and dabbling in the market of mediocrity...

... we do.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe, but that's probably a trade I pass on. One arm injury and you are out two franchise pieces. 

How about Mayer, Abreu, Fitts and DHam?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Mayer, Abreu, Fitts and DHam?

I do it. I think the CWS would hold out for a deal where they get a real good arm coming back or are overwhelmed with an offer. I don't know if we can provide the high level arm.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I do it. I think the CWS would hold out for a deal where they get a real good arm coming back or are overwhelmed with an offer. I don't know if we can provide the high level arm.

Maybe. I also think you may be undervaluing how some GMs rate Mayer. (Not that you are wrong.)

I think some GMs view Mayer as a major "get." I'm not sure how many teams have a better prospect or would offer one up, plus Casas and Fitts.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Henry really sees the near future of this time tied up in the big 3. It's cost savings and "sustainability." If a trade makes sense, they shouldn't end those talks IMO. 

The O's turned their fortunes around with young players, but that doesn't mean it will work as well in BOS.

Agreed.  Personally I hope they do keep all four, simply out of a selfish need for some f**king excitement. 

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Did any Baltimore spend last offseason pondering arb-eligible players they could add to round out their roster? Nope, the Orioles pulled off a major blockbuster trade for Corbin Burnes, a #1 bonafide ace starting pitcher. 

The O's won 101 games in 2023, but still spent from their deep prospect capital to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starter. Good thing, too, since none of the three pitchers who started at least 30 games in '23 were around or healthy enough to duplicate that -- and only Burnes started over 30, and led the club in innings pitched, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, WINS as the AL's starting pitcher in the '24 All-Star Game.

Do the Red Sox need to sign Corbin Burnes? Not specifically -- but they do need to sign or trade for a NUMBER ONE... even if it's someone Brez and Bailey target, tweak and elevate to that slot by March (like Lugo last year for the Royals, who were more "interested" in him than Boston).

To really compete with the Yankees and Orioles for the foreseeable future, the Red Sox need BOTH Fried and Crochet, southpaws to combat young lefty batters like Soto, Henderson and Holliday - stars who will be around for a long time.

The White Sox will take the best package offered for Crochet. I'd part with Duran, 28 (two years older than Soto) before Casas, 25 in January, or any of the top prospects, who are all 22 or younger. 

 

i would not mind Burnes as he is a solid SP but his age and slight decline do concern me given that he likely require a large and fairly lengthy FA contract. I would prefer we find a way to get a young stud like we did with Pedro and Beckett. Problem is that teams don't seem to trade those types these days..

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The White Sox are surely a long way away from any possible window.  I would think the only thing they're interested in right now is very young and very inexpensive talent.    

Duran on his own would not get this done. I think we would need to add one our big 4 prospects to get this done.

[Randy Red Sox]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe. I also think you may be undervaluing how some GMs rate Mayer. (Not that you are wrong.)

I think some GMs view Mayer as a major "get." I'm not sure how many teams have a better prospect or would offer one up, plus Casas and Fitts.

i don't think Fitts has a lot of trade value.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i don't think Fitts has a lot of trade value.

Not enough to score an impact arm IMO. 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe. I also think you may be undervaluing how some GMs rate Mayer. (Not that you are wrong.)

I think some GMs view Mayer as a major "get." I'm not sure how many teams have a better prospect or would offer one up, plus Casas and Fitts.

I'm sure his highly valued, I think the CWS would just prefer getting an arm in return rather than a SS with injury concerns.