Article: Masataka Yoshida’s Shoulder Injury Threatens Season Start and Trade Value

[Duran Is The Man]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

FanGraphs has calculated Yoshida's worth in free agent dollars as :

2023 $4.9 million

2024 $6.4 million 

LOL....nice job Bloom.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

FanGraphs has calculated Yoshida's worth in free agent dollars as :

2023 $4.9 million

2024 $6.4 million 

That's nice of them, but the only true value of anything is what someone is willing to pay for it.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, notin said:

It’s been said by numerous MLB personnel the Sox overpaid for Yoshida.  Not one of them said he was a $3-4mill player.  Because he isn’t; that’s utility infielder money…

pardon me- a 5 million player then.  Still a  HORRIBLE signing

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, notin said:

It’s been said by numerous MLB personnel the Sox overpaid for Yoshida.  Not one of them said he was a $3-4mill player.  Because he isn’t; that’s utility infielder money…

I agree, nobody thought he was a $3-4M player, when we signed him, That wasn't the point I was making.

My point is, what 3 year offer would he get, if he was a FA this winter. I think we can assume that is probably his "real value" and we'd have to pay off the difference to trade him to that GM- just to get nothing in return.

What do you think he'd be signed for on a 3 year deal?

$9M/3?

$12M/4?

$15M/3?

$18M/3?

More?

I'm not sure anyone would pay him $20M/3.

If he comes back and looks healthy in April, maybe close to that, but I can't see more than that.

I'd say $15M/3 is likely the limit. Just my opinion.

He's not worthless, but his contract is under water.

[Larry Cook]

13 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

FanGraphs has calculated Yoshida's worth in free agent dollars as :

2023 $4.9 million

2024 $6.4 million 

We can pay the rest to send him to San Francisco 

I really think birdsong might look good in a Red Sox uniform 

[notin]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

We can pay the rest to send him to San Francisco 

I really think birdsong might look good in a Red Sox uniform 

So you’re saying if you ran the Giants, you’d trade 6 years of RHSP Hayden Birdsong for Yoshida and cash?

 

Can you get that job please?

[Bellhorn04]

Masa career splits:

Vs. RHP .810

Vs. LHP .669

Home .814

Away .740

The poor numbers against lefties have induced Cora to sit Yoshida against some lefty starters, further limiting his usefulness.

 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Masa career splits:

Vs. RHP .810

Vs. LHP .669

Home .814

Away .740

The poor numbers against lefties have induced Cora to sit Yoshida against some lefty starters, further limiting his usefulness.

 

Couple that with his recent shoulder surgery and his rather hefty contract, and it strongly indicates he will be the Sox starting DH next season…

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Masa career splits:

Vs. RHP .810

Vs. LHP .669

Home .814

Away .740

The poor numbers against lefties have induced Cora to sit Yoshida against some lefty starters, further limiting his usefulness.

 

2023:

795 OPS vs RHP

746 OPS vs LHP

Did the shoulder injury impact his splits this year? 

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2023:

795 OPS vs RHP

746 OPS vs LHP

Did the shoulder injury impact his splits this year? 

I should have checked both years.  This year it was 832/565.

[notin]

34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I should have checked both years.  This year it was 832/565.

Did he really sit all that often vs LHP?  108 of his 421 PAs were against LHP.  That means 30.8% of his PA were against LHP, which is almost identical to Duran (31.2%).  And Duran was rarely benched vs anyone…

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Did he really sit all that often vs LHP?  108 of his 421 PAs were against LHP.  That means 30.8% of his PA were against LHP, which is almost identical to Duran (31.2%).  And Duran was rarely benched vs anyone…

I do recall a few games he sat when we were facing a lefty starter.  Not sure how many exactly.  Need a stat for that! 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I do recall a few games he sat when we were facing a lefty starter.  Not sure how many exactly.  Need a stat for that! 

It doesn’t appear he sat that often as he was facing them with the same frequency as Duran, and Duran had 735 PAs.  That percentage is small enough that it can be explained away by Yoshida batting further down in the lineup…

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

It doesn’t appear he sat that often as he was facing them with the same frequency as Duran, and Duran had 735 PAs.  That percentage is small enough that it can be explained away by Yoshida batting further down in the lineup…

After the ASB, in games in which he subsequently pinch hit, he sat against 4 LHP and 2 RHP. 

He sat out a whole bunch of games due to injury and other roster reasons, so it's futile to really go through all 162 IMO. 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

After the ASB, in games in which he subsequently pinch hit, he sat against 4 LHP and 2 RHP. 

He sat out a whole bunch of games due to injury and other roster reasons, so it's futile to really go through all 162 IMO. 

Bottom line is when he played, he faced LHP at the same rate as any non-platooned lefty in the lineup.  Yoshida had more PA vs LHP than platooned players who played more games, like Abreu.

The notion that Cora platooned him appears to be rooted in myth…

[mvp 78]

Cora had no problem sitting Masa for any number of reasons. Maybe we'll see more platooning going forward? Maybe we won't? I think Refsnyder's overall success against RHP this year was to Masa's detriment (774 vs RHP starter in 30 GS). Maybe Masa's platooning will look more pronounced if Refsnyder stops hitting RHP in 2025? 

[Bellhorn04]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Bottom line is when he played, he faced LHP at the same rate as any non-platooned lefty in the lineup.  Yoshida had more PA vs LHP than platooned players who played more games, like Abreu.

The notion that Cora platooned him appears to be rooted in myth…

Certainly wasn't saying it was a straight platoon.

One thing's for sure - in 2024 he was atrocious against the lefties he faced. 

 

 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Certainly wasn't saying it was a straight platoon.

One thing's for sure - in 2024 he was atrocious against the lefties he faced. 

 

 

No doubt, as far as final results go.

But BABIP data does suggest he hit the ball a bit better than his numbers indicate, given his GB/FB/LD splits.  His .302 BABIP should have been closer to .314, the upshot ring his .280 BA should have been closer to .299, with corresponding adjustments to his OBP and SLG, and ultimately to his OPS, which should have been .038-.040 higher.   
 

He is very likely to be the Sox DH again next year, and while he won’t make you forget about Ortiz, he is capable of doing an adequate job of his shoulder holds up…

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

No doubt, as far as final results go.

But BABIP data does suggest he hit the ball a bit better than his numbers indicate, given his GB/FB/LD splits.  His .302 BABIP should have been closer to .314, the upshot ring his .280 BA should have been closer to .299, with corresponding adjustments to his OBP and SLG, and ultimately to his OPS, which should have been .038-.040 higher.   
 

He is very likely to be the Sox DH again next year, and while he won’t make you forget about Ortiz, he is capable of doing an adequate job of his shoulder holds up…

Interesting as Statcast shows his xBA as 260. 🤔

Why would we assume his BA should go up considering how poor his exit velo is? His line drives went up, but so did his fly balls. With that exit velo, they weren't going very far. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

He is very likely to be the Sox DH again next year, and while he won’t make you forget about Ortiz, he is capable of doing an adequate job of his shoulder holds up…

"Adequate" covers a lot of ground.  Per FanGraphs his value for 2023-2024 was 11.3 million while his AAV was 36 million.

What doesn't show in his OPS and OPS+ is the negative impact of his baserunning.

We're stuck with him, basically.   

[moonslav59]

On 10/20/2024 at 8:21 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

FanGraphs has calculated Yoshida's worth in free agent dollars as :

2023 $4.9 million

2024 $6.4 million 

Pretty close to my estimate of $3-6M x 3 years

[mvp 78]

57 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"Adequate" covers a lot of ground.  Per FanGraphs his value for 2023-2024 was 11.3 million while his AAV was 36 million.

What doesn't show in his OPS and OPS+ is the negative impact of his baserunning.

We're stuck with him, basically.   

His -2.5 BsR was pretty bad. There were 1393 players with higher scores than that last year. If you do a cutoff of 400 PA's, he comes out to 162nd, tied with Verdugo, Naylor and Vaughn at 22nd percentile. 

Guys with worse BsR scores and less HR's than Masa:

Urshela

Pham

Jose Miranda

[Maxbialystock]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His -2.5 BsR was pretty bad. There were 1393 players with higher scores than that last year. If you do a cutoff of 400 PA's, he comes out to 162nd, tied with Verdugo, Naylor and Vaughn at 22nd percentile. 

Guys with worse BsR scores and less HR's than Masa:

Urshela

Pham

Jose Miranda

Heartbreaking.  

[moonslav59]

I think we are stuck with hoping Yoshida does better.

[notin]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Certainly wasn't saying it was a straight platoon.

One thing's for sure - in 2024 he was atrocious against the lefties he faced. 

 

 

You said Cora was induced to bench him against LHP.  Isn’t that a straight platoon?

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

You said Cora was induced to bench him against LHP.  Isn’t that a straight platoon?

No it isn't. 

It's not complicated. I said Cora sat him against some lefties.  It was disproportionate to the number of righties he sat against.  mvp found those 4 LH sits and 2 RH sits numbers.   

Cora has done the same with other hitters who are struggling against lefties.  Like Duran in the first part of 2023.  You don't sit them all the time against lefties if there's hope for improvement.

Abreu was the guy pretty much in a straight platoon this year.  

     

 

[moonslav59]

A Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon might be the plan for 2025.

Ref is no good in the OF, and we will likely be adding Anthony and maybe Campbell to the OF mix, while losing O'Neill.

We could see...

LF: Duran

CF: Anthony v R/ Rafaela v L

RF: Anthony v L/ Abreu v R

or

LF: Duran v R/ Abreu v L

CF: Duran v L/ Rafaela v R

RF: Anthony

[Randy Red Sox]

10 hours ago, notin said:

Couple that with his recent shoulder surgery and his rather hefty contract, and it strongly indicates he will be the Sox starting DH next season…

you can take that to the bank

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, notin said:

No doubt, as far as final results go.

But BABIP data does suggest he hit the ball a bit better than his numbers indicate, given his GB/FB/LD splits.  His .302 BABIP should have been closer to .314, the upshot ring his .280 BA should have been closer to .299, with corresponding adjustments to his OBP and SLG, and ultimately to his OPS, which should have been .038-.040 higher.   
 

He is very likely to be the Sox DH again next year, and while he won’t make you forget about Ortiz, he is capable of doing an adequate job of his shoulder holds up…

i agree that Yoshida will be the DH again next year.  Based on our past few offseason I look for the Sox to add a couple journeyman relievers on 1 yr deals  Breslow will also sign a RH bat for the OF and that will be about the extent of the offseason moves.

[Larry Cook]

14 hours ago, notin said:

So you’re saying if you ran the Giants, you’d trade 6 years of RHSP Hayden Birdsong for Yoshida and cash?

 

Can you get that job please?

No no no!!  We have add a lot more to the trade, but I think it is doable if we find the right pieces