Article: Which Free Agents Should the Red Sox Sign? Just Ask the Green Monster

[Davy Andrews]

Fenway Park's unusual dimensions allow the Red Sox to look for a specific kind of player: right-handed batters who pull the ball in the air a whole lot. Which free agents meet that criteria?

I’m going to say something you probably haven’t heard before: The Red Sox could really use a right-handed hitter to balance out their lineup. It’s a novel observation, I know. However, that means something different in Fenway Park than it does in any other ballpark in baseball, and that’s because of the Monster. Over the past three seasons, right-handed hitters have run a wOBA of .891 when they’ve hit fly balls and line drives to the pull side at Fenway Park. That’s the highest wOBA of any home park in baseball. The only other park within 30 points is Minute Maid Park, which has the Crawford Boxes in left field. In other words, Fenway is uniquely friendly to right-handed hitters who pull the ball in the air.

Maybe you remember Adam Duvall’s 2023 campaign, in which he signed with the Red Sox, got into just 92 games thanks to a broken wrist in April, but still managed to hit 21 homers and run a 118 wRC+. By xwOBA, it should have been the fifth-best season of Duvall’s career, but by actual wOBA, it was just one point shy of his best. After the season, Daniel R. Epstein wrote at Baseball Prospectus about what made Duvall such a great fit at Fenway, and it wasn’t batted ball luck: he lifted tons of ball into and over the Green Monster.

Well, the Red Sox are looking to compete again. They’ve got money to spend and a surplus of young, controllable talent as trade chips. Craig Breslow and his team are very definitely taking the quirks of their ballpark into account when they consider free agent and trade targets, so let’s do the same thing. I ran a Baseball Savant search for right-handed batter who’s taken at least a thousand swings over the past three seasons. The tables below represent the players with the highest rate of pulled fly balls and line drives per swing. Maybe you’ll remember the player at the very top.

Player	Pulled FB/Swing		Player	Pulled FB/Swing
Betts, Mookie	10.7		Higashioka, Kyle	8.8
Arenado, Nolan	10.4		Buxton, Byron	8.6
Jansen, Danny	10.3		Hoskins, Rhys	8.5
Paredes, Isaac	9.9		Lewis, Royce	8.4
Bregman, Alex	9.6		Pillar, Kevin	8.3
Duvall, Adam	9.5		Moore, Dylan	8.2
Semien, Marcus	9.5		Bryant, Kris	8.1
Flores, Wilmer	9.4		Díaz, Aledmys	8.1
Altuve, Jose	9		Kim, Ha-Seong	8
Garver, Mitch	9		Renfroe, Hunter	7.9

Wow, Mookie Betts would’ve made a really great fit in Fenway Park. Who knew? The list features plenty of players who are locked into long-term contracts and unlikely to move, but it’s also got a bunch of free agent names that make a lot of sense. Let’s break them down quickly.

Danny Jansen had a down season both at the plate and behind it in 2024, but he’s been a solid hitter over the course of his career and his skillset really does line up with the park. The team had a chance to see how it felt about him in 2023, and after the down year, they might be able to pick him up at a bit of a discount.

I get the sense that the Boston fanbase is very cool on Alex Bregman, and I can understand the reasons. The team has Rafael Devers at third base, and his contract extends well into the 2060s. Bregman played for the hated Astros, he comes off as cocksure, he’ll be on the wrong side of 30, and over the last two seasons, he’s been more great than elite at the plate. But let’s be clear: Bregman has absolutely elite plate discipline and contact skills, something the Red Sox need desperately. And what if I told you this: In 97 career plate appearances at Fenway Park during the regular season, Bregman has slash line of .375/.485/.750 with seven homers? Or how about this? That works out to a wOBA of .509. Since Bregman’s debut in 2016, 208 different players have made at least 55 regular-season PAs at Fenway. Bregman’s .509 wOBA is the highest among all of them. Over the last nine years, Alex Bregman has literally been the best hitter at Fenway Park in all of baseball. Sure, signing a third baseman might prompt some awkward roster construction questions, but there is a legitimate argument to be made that Bregman is the best fit for Fenway of any player in baseball.

Up next is old friend Adam Duvall. If we re-run our list with batted balls as the denominator instead of swings, Duvall jumps to the number one spot. Over the past three seasons, 29.3% of his batted balls have come in the form of pulled fly balls and line drives. He’s coming off an extremely bad season in Atlanta, but it wouldn’t be crazy to give Duvall another shot as a platoon option for Wilyer Abreu.

Wilmer Flores is another buy-low option. Flores has a career 105 wRC+, but he’s coming off the worst year of his career. He put up a 68 wRC+ in just 71 games with the Giants in 2024. However, he’s also going into his age-33 season and is extremely limited defensively at this point in his career. He might make sense as a platoon option for DH or first base, but not much more than that.

Kyle Higashioka is a very interesting name. Higashioka just made himself some real money, as he’s entering free agency coming off the best offensive season of his career, hitting 17 homers with a 105 wRC+ with the Padres. He also went off in the playoffs to the tune of three homers and a 168 wRC+. However, he’s 34 years old with a career 81 wRC+. Most teams would be looking at Higashioka as a glove-first option to split time at catcher, and it’s hard to imagine he gets more than a one-year deal anywhere at this point of his career. All the same, the Red Sox are in need of catching help, and he really does fit the park.

There are more interesting names a bit further down on this list, including a couple of big free agents, but we’re already up over a thousand words here. We’ll continue this exercise later in the week.

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[Randy Red Sox]

this is a pretty shoddy list so the Sox will likely be in on one of these guys

[moonslav59]

We could use a RHB catcher with plus defensive skills and some pop, but on just a 1 year deal.

I'm not sure who fits that bill: maybe Jansen or d'Arnaud. Maybe on a 2 year deal or a 2nd year option with a hefty buyout?

[notin]

Danny Jansen fills multiple areas…

[Randy Red Sox]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

Danny Jansen fills multiple areas…

probably the best bet on a 1 yr deal but I think he might want to return to Toronto where he spent several years. They need another C too.

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

probably the best bet on a 1 yr deal but I think he might want to return to Toronto where he spent several years. They need another C too.

They still have Alejandro Kirk, who grades well defensively…

[harmony]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Danny Jansen fills multiple areas…

https://archive.fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Danny Jansen fills multiple areas…

Agreed, and we do know the Sox management team likes him.

RHB: check

Decent defensive catcher: check

Decent pop: check (29 HRs per 650 PAs)

I'd be okay with a 50-50 split between Wong and Jansen, or even more starts by Jansen, as we wait for Teel to be promoted.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, harmony said:

https://archive.fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

He wasn't too bad in '23.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, harmony said:

https://archive.fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

According to the Fielding Bible...

Abreu was the best RF'er in MLB at +18.

Duran was #1 in CF, despite playing just 820 innings there (+17)

Rafaela was 3rd in CF is just over 630 innings (+12)

DHam was 6th at 2B (+8) in just 267 innings (He's # in DRS/inning)

OF: #2 Duran (+23 in 1420) #3 Abreu (+16 in 960) #7 Rafaela (12 in 634)

Devers 2nd worst at 3B (-9)

[Larry Cook]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

According to the Fielding Bible...

Devers 2nd worst at 3B (-9)

Devers is a dumpster fire defensively at 3B. But does bres-slow want a full time DH???

 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Devers is a dumpster fire defensively at 3B. But does bres-slow want a full time DH???

 

I see two options, if we move Devers off 3B:

FT DH

1B/DH share with Casas (or trade Casas)

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I see two options, if we move Devers off 3B:

FT DH

1B/DH share with Casas (or trade Casas)

Yep, sign Bregman and have Devers DH and platoon at 1B with Casas as you suggest and dump Masa for whatever it takes.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Yep, sign Bregman and have Devers DH and platoon at 1B with Casas as you suggest and dump Masa for whatever it takes.

I'd rather have Campbell or Mayer at 3B (and 2B) and use the money on pitching.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 hours ago, harmony said:

https://archive.fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

According to the stat Total Runs Saved, the '24 Red Sox had the two worst catchers in the American League: Jansen at -11  and Wong at -16.

Combined, that equates to -27 -- on the negative side of "saved" ...

... Oxford lists the following antonyms for saved: endanger, waste, fritter away.  Translated into balltalk: Sox catchers endanger their pitchers, waste fans' time watching, and fritter away hopes of preventing 27 more foes from crossing the plate.

Over 162 games, those 27 gift runs represent an additional 17%. 

If Boston didn't have catchers who gave away runs -- even if they saved zero tallies -- the team average of runs against per game would be almost league-average.

[mvp 78]

If you go by Statcast's Fielding Run Value, Wong was tied for worst in the league at -13 and Jansen was a more mediocre -3. In 2023, Wong showed a bit better due to his arm being healthy and Jansen was slightly better as well. 

This is probably the duo that shouldn't be what Breslow rolls out in April 1. It would be nice to have a defensive specialist like vintage era Sandy Leon.