Article: The Red Sox Should Consider Trading Jarren Duran For An Ace

[Alex Mayes]

It's no secret that Jarren Duran was one of the shining stars for the Boston Red Sox this year. Why not strike while the iron is hot?

I can hear the pitchforks being sharpened already. It’s fine, everything’s fine. I’ll preface all this by saying I’m a Jarren Duran fan. He’s taken huge steps to become one of the best leadoff hitters in all of baseball in the last year, and according to Alex Cora, he is a clubhouse leader. My wife and I even sat in left field when the Red Sox came to our hometown, Busch Stadium, specifically because I wanted to watch him play up close. I’ll also say this has nothing to do with his suspension earlier this season, although that was warranted. No, this is about Jarren Duran, the baseball player, and what he offers in terms of trade value to this team.

This offseason's big push is a trade for top-tier pitching, as it should be. There’s a ton of talk, even from Craig Breslow and Sam Kennedy, about the wealth of infielders the Red Sox have within the organization, and at least part of the trade package has to come from that. However, without dealing with proven major league talent, that deal will require multiple top ten prospects, including at least two of the “Big Four,” to me, that’s too steep of a price to pay. Enter Jarren Duran.

Duran's leap to almost superstardom this year was a sight to behold. Most people entering the season had little use for him after his lackluster two previous seasons, but if you paid attention, you saw a player who could figure it out if he got his head on straight and focused. That’s mostly the Duran we saw this year. He ended the year with a .285 batting average, a .342 OBP, and a .345 BABIP. He hit a monster home run in the All-Star Game, won the All-Star Game MVP, is a nominee for the Hank Aaron award, and should receive some MVP votes. His pedigree is growing, there’s no doubt. 

That being said, I think we’ve just seen the peak of Jarren Duran. I don’t believe that we will see this type of play out of him again. Duran will be a good baseball player for years to come, no doubt, but he will not be this caliber of baseball player. Although he didn’t feature it towards the end of the season because he was worn down, Duran’s best asset to this team is his speed on the base paths. He’s one of the best baserunners in the game, legging out what should be singles into doubles and what should be doubles into triples.

But as we saw with Jacoby Ellsbury, speed is the first thing to go for baseball players. The legs get older; they get tired. Duran has a history of foot injuries, and if he keeps up the breakneck speed at which he runs, his biggest tool will decline sooner rather than later. That will impact him not only on the base paths but also in the outfield. It’s no secret that Duran doesn’t take the best route to balls hit his way and makes up for it with his speed. It’s fun to watch right now, but when that speed takes a hit in a couple of years and balls that should be caught are landing beyond his glove, where are we then? While everyone was furious, the Sox moved on from Ellsbury; it was the right call. The front office must be prepared to make a similar decision and include Duran in trade talks this year. You can get a king’s ransom for him right now, so strike while the iron is hot. A package built around him and one of the top minor leaguers in the system, likely Marcelo Mayer, would be hard for any team to turn down.

The other names that come up in trade rumors, some floated by the team to the media, are Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu. There’s value there, for sure, but you’re looking at them plus two of the big four in that type of deal, and to me, that’s not worth whomever is coming back to Boston. Casas was a blue-chip prospect with an elite plate approach. His future should be at first base in Boston and nowhere else. Abreu is in the conversation for a Gold Glove this year and proved that he’s more than just a platoon bat against right-handed pitching. Give him some time to grow, and he will be a valuable contributor to both sides of baseball. 

I’m not advocating for trading Duran for just any pitcher. It has to be a top of the rotation, young ace. If the deal isn’t for George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, keep him around. I don’t buy that Seattle won’t trade from their rotation this offseason. They need hitters, and the only way they will trade for that is to give up a piece from their deepest position. If Seattle is willing to pick up the phone and talk pitching, then, in my opinion, Jarren Duran could easily be part of that deal to ensure that the Red Sox hold onto younger players with ceilings just as high.

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[Bellhorn04]

"As we saw with Jacoby Ellsbury, speed is the first thing to go for baseball players."

 

Ellsbury seems to be the automatic comp for Duran.  I get it - Ellsbury played for us not long ago, he was an outfielder, he was really fast.

 

But is it really true that speed goes early as a general scientific principle?

 

Rickey Henderson led the majors in stolen bases at age 39.

 

Lou Brock led the majors in stolen bases at age 35.

 

Both these two continued to be speed demons until way past the "wrong side of 30."

 

So I'm disputing the accuracy of that statement.
 

 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"As we saw with Jacoby Ellsbury, speed is the first thing to go for baseball players."

 

Ellsbury seems to be the automatic comp for Duran.  I get it - Ellsbury played for us not long ago, he was an outfielder, he was really fast.

 

But is it really true that speed goes early as a general scientific principle?

 

Rickey Henderson led the majors in stolen bases at age 39.

 

Lou Brock led the majors in stolen bases at age 35.

 

Both these two continued to be speed demons until way past the "wrong side of 30."

 

So I'm disputing the accuracy of that statement.
 

 

If you’re using two HOFer against the larger sample size of literally everyone else to try and disprove that physical skills decline with age you’re actually proving that physical skills do decline.  If you have two guys on your list who are generational talents and decades apart.

 

i get it, i do.  But betting on Duran to age like Ricky Henderson would be an awful bet. 

Im pro not trading Duran, but I certainly can’t argue against trading him from a value perspective.  Betting his value is at an all time high right now seems like a fairly safe bet.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

If you’re using two HOFer against the larger sample size of literally everyone else to try and disprove that physical skills decline with age you’re actually proving that physical skills do decline.  If you have two guys on your list who are generational talents and decades apart.

 

i get it, i do.  But betting on Duran to age like Ricky Henderson would be an awful bet.

No, that's not really the point.

I'm questioning the scientific validity of the "speed goes early" statement.  

This is not about talent, it's strictly about the Point A to Point B part...

[Bellhorn04]

A couple more points:

1) If 2024 was Duran's best season (very possible) it doesn't automatically mean he's going to go back to being a 1-2 WAR player and stay there.

2) Every other team is aware of the same possibility.  Every other team has the same data and plenty of guys to analyze it.

 

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, that's not really the point.

I'm questioning the scientific validity of the "speed goes early" statement.  

This is not about talent, it's strictly about the Point A to Point B part...

The yes, speed absolutely goes first.

this is perhaps a physiological question and not a baseball question.

genetic freaks can maintain an elite level of athleticism that still sets them apart for a few years longer because they’re falling from a higher point, and people’s training programs can stave off father of time slower.  But the wall is undefeated.

human athletic performance on average peaks at 27.  That’s just a fact about the human body and has been pretty well documented.

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A couple more points:

1) If 2024 was Duran's best season (very possible) it doesn't automatically mean he's going to go back to being a 1-2 WAR player and stay there.

2) Every other team is aware of the same possibility.  Every other team has the same data and plenty of guys to analyze it.

 

1. I’ve made this exact point in here, many times that his 2024 season also raises his floor with me.

 

duran adds value in too many different ways to regress so much.  Base running, defense, offense.  He’s not crashing to a 2 War player.

2. This could be said about any player at any time.  

[Duran Is The Man]

last year we literally paid another team $11M to take our best pitcher (and this year's CY award winner) for a light-hitting, AAA suspect when (as the OP pointed out) we have a "wealth of infielders", so it totally makes sense to now trade our best hitter this year for someone who will flop. i wonder if the OP works in the Sox FO. 

comparing him to Ellsbury is ignorant. there is no correlation between the two, other than they've played centerfield for the Sox. why not compare him to Ken Griffey Jr. or Willie Mays? just because Jacoby got hurt, Duran might get hurt? LOL. why not trade Casas? he's already been hurt and his defense sucks.

[Hugh2]

There’s a difference between wanting to trade Duran and then agreeing his value may be at an all time high.  I agree with the later not necessarily the former.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The yes, speed absolutely goes first.

this is perhaps a physiological question and not a baseball question.

genetic freaks can maintain an elite level of athleticism that still sets them apart for a few years longer because they’re falling from a higher point, and people’s training programs can stave off father of time slower.  But the wall is undefeated.

human athletic performance on average peaks at 27.  That’s just a fact about the human body and has been pretty well documented.

OK, but identifying the exact peak doesn't really tell us much about the precise rate of decline.

Can you tell us exactly how much speed Duran will lose over the next 5 years?

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

There’s a difference between wanting to trade Duran and then agreeing his value may be at an all time high.  I agree with the later not necessarily the former.

We can probably say the same about Tanner Houck.  Should we trade him too?

[Duran Is The Man]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

We can probably say the same about Tanner Houck.  Should we trade him too?

and we all know Chris Sale is done, so we should definitely trade him too. oh, wait.....

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We can probably say the same about Tanner Houck.  Should we trade him too?

How many times do I have to say I’m not advocating trading Duran.  
 

I want to keep Duran.  I just don’t disagree that his value may be at peak right now.  

[Bellhorn04]

Not trying to be snarky when I say this, but it's pretty obvious that with a guy who just had an 8 WAR season after amassing about 2 WAR before that, and who is under control for 4 more years, their trade value is likely at its peak.    

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

and we all know Chris Sale is done, so we should definitely trade him too. oh, wait.....

Who in here is saying to trade Duran?

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Who in here is saying to trade Duran?

The OP is absolutely advocating it if there's another team willing to make it happen.

We argued about this for pages on the 2025 thread.

My main argument against doing it is that we don't have enough offense that we can afford to give up Duran.

 

 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not trying to be snarky when I say this, but it's pretty obvious that with a guy who just had an 8 WAR season after amassing about 2 WAR before that, and who is under control for 4 more years, their trade value is likely at its peak.    

I’m just not sure what people are even disagreeing with.  

[Hugh2]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

The OP.

Ok, that totally makes sense, but I’m sure you can appreciate that having being responded to makes it feel like it’s me.  
 

it’s ok, I don’t feel attacked, no need to report me to the moderator lol

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok, that totally makes sense, but I’m sure you can appreciate that having being responded to makes it feel like it’s me.  
 

it’s ok, I don’t feel attacked, no need to report me to the moderator lol

Hugh, you're fine, and I agree with you much more often than disagree.  I know I tend to sound a little edgy myself when I'm posting in the morning after my coffee.  But I'm just throwing stuff out there to keep things interesting. 🙂

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hugh, you're fine, and I agree with you much more often than disagree.  I know I tend to sound a little edgy myself when I'm posting in the morning after my coffee.  But I'm just throwing stuff out there to keep things interesting. 🙂

Well don’t let me stop you, and thank you for reminding me to go brew some coffee

[harmony]

Jarren Duran's impressive age 27 season in 2024 is reminiscent of Jacoby Ellsbury's age 27 season in 2011 and Darin Erstad's age 26 season in 2000. Neither Ellsbury nor Erstad was able to replicate his outstanding season.

Duran's single breakout season won't be enough to land Logan Gilbert or George Kirby, who have established themselves for at least three seasons.

Seattle may need hitters, but perhaps not as much as the Red Sox need hitters. This year the Mariners and Sox each posted a team wRC+ of 104 although after August 15 Seattle registered a league-leading wRC+ of 118 while the Sox slumped to 83.

The Seattle resurgence was fueled by the additions of Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles, a pair who will likely flank Julio Rodriguez in the outfield next year. Duran would not fill the Mariners' greater needs in the infield.

The Red Sox might be wise to trade high on Duran but fans should temper their expectations on the return.

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, harmony said:

Jarren Duran's impressive age 27 season in 2024 is reminiscent of Jacoby Ellsbury's age 27 season in 2011 and Darin Erstad's age 26 season in 2000. Neither Ellsbury nor Erstad was able to replicate his outstanding season.

From FanGraphs:

Duran 2023 362 PA 15.9 Offensive RAR -3.2 Defensive RAR

Duran 2024 735 PA 32.8 Offensive RAR 7.9 Defensive RAR

Duran's jump in WAR from 2023 came from 2 things:

1) Played a full season

2) Vast improvement in defense

His offensive value basically remained the same.

 

 

 

[notin]

The real question isn’t “should the Sox trade Duran for an ace?”  The real question is “will any team give up their ace for Duran?”  And if so, there are follow-ups.

Like:

1. Who?

2. And how many years does he have left and at what salary?

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not trying to be snarky when I say this, but it's pretty obvious that with a guy who just had an 8 WAR season after amassing about 2 WAR before that, and who is under control for 4 more years, their trade value is likely at its peak.    

… which is why it’s weird to pretend there’s a demand for him.  Other CBOs are not all idiots and all grasp the concept of buying high…

[Larry Cook]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

The real question isn’t “should the Sox trade Duran for an ace?”  The real question is “will any team give up their ace for Duran?”  And if so, there are follow-ups.

Like:

1. Who?

2. And how many years does he have left and at what salary?

I agree 100 percent. 
 

our 4 priorities should be 1.) to improve the starting pitching 2.) improve the bullpen and the depth of the bullpen. 3.) improve the defense and 4.) reduce strikeouts. 
 

I think we only move Duran if we accomplish the first goal!

 

i think Bryce miller projects really well in Fenway, but we have many other major league players and prospects to offer before we should part with Duran! Including abreau, cassas. Wong, yoshida and about a dozen middle infielders 

[Randy Red Sox]

5 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

last year we literally paid another team $11M to take our best pitcher (and this year's CY award winner) for a light-hitting, AAA suspect when (as the OP pointed out) we have a "wealth of infielders", so it totally makes sense to now trade our best hitter this year for someone who will flop. i wonder if the OP works in the Sox FO. 

comparing him to Ellsbury is ignorant. there is no correlation between the two, other than they've played centerfield for the Sox. why not compare him to Ken Griffey Jr. or Willie Mays? just because Jacoby got hurt, Duran might get hurt? LOL. why not trade Casas? he's already been hurt and his defense sucks.

the point is that the Sox have OF depth but need SP and BP help. Duran on his own will not fetch us an ace but perhaps as part of a package for one.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I agree 100 percent. 
 

our 4 priorities should be 1.) to improve the starting pitching 2.) improve the bullpen and the depth of the bullpen. 3.) improve the defense and 4.) reduce strikeouts. 
 

I think we only move Duran if we accomplish the first goal!

 

i think Bryce miller projects really well in Fenway, but we have many other major league players and prospects to offer before we should part with Duran! Including abreau, cassas. Wong, yoshida and about a dozen middle infielders 

Casas is the only one of those that could help bring back a SP..  how about Story to Seattle for Castillo ?

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the point is that the Sox have OF depth but need SP and BP help. Duran on his own will not fetch us an ace but perhaps as part of a package for one.

Still sticking with the “Duran will not get us an ace” despite the 8 fWAR season?

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Still sticking with the “Duran will not get us an ace” despite the 8 fWAR season?

The 4 years of control is the kicker. Duran has proven himself. 4 arbs. There are some players better than Duran, but how many have 4 years of control at arb prices. He is among the top trade chips in MLB.

I'm not sure what BTV gives him for a value, but it must be as high as several pitchers I call aces. To me, it would be all about the years of control of the pitcher we get, and the contract situation.

Duran is not someone I want to trade, now is Anthony. I'd prefer we trade someone like Casas or Mayer, but they will not bring back what Duran or Anthony will do.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Still sticking with the “Duran will not get us an ace” despite the 8 fWAR season?

yes