Article: Checking In On Dave Dombrowski, Five Years After He Left The Red Sox

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The problem of course is that some of those are debatable.  (One like Thornburg is not.)

 

 

 

If we count Thornburg, then do we count Moreland and Nunez as good? How about Kinsler? Do we count the Pearce ext as major (and bad?)

Lots of gray area.

I do think it's clear DD did better with major deals then B & B (and add Ben, if you want.) Of course, spending $20+M on JD & Bogey gives you a better chance at success or meh, than spending 5-10M on 1 year deals.

 

[Bellhorn04]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we count Thornburg, then do we count Moreland and Nunez as good? How about Kinsler? Do we count the Pearce ext as major (and bad?)

Lots of gray area.

I do think it's clear DD did better with major deals then B & B (and add Ben, if you want.) Of course, spending $20+M on JD & Bogey gives you a better chance at success or meh, than spending 5-10M on 1 year deals.

 

Yeah, it's just never as simple as we'd like it to be.

I think he did an excellent job given the mandate most of us assume he had.

[Bellhorn04]

One thing about Dombrowski is you don't get very many mystery moves.  His moves are almost always self-explanatory.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we count Thornburg, then do we count Moreland and Nunez as good? How about Kinsler? Do we count the Pearce ext as major (and bad?)

Moreland and Nunez hit good pinch-hit home runs that helped win two World Series games. 

That's good enough for anybody.

Pearce was World Series MVP, then tried to play all banged-up for one more year when he had to retire at age 29. He also got paid by Boston that last, lost season -- for around the same amount as the checks Manny once forgot in his glove compartment. John Henry and Co. probably just viewed the Pearce ext. as a reward for his contributions to winning a ring, 

Kinsler couldn't hit a fastball anymore... but 3 out of 4 ain't bad.

[notin]

On 10/12/2024 at 8:16 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe now Dave will get a chance to show if he can dig his way out of it, which he didn't get with the Sox.

Or Detroit. 
 

I’m not so sure his MO is conducive to working his way out of it unless he has a Yankee/Dodger budget…

[notin]

On 10/12/2024 at 3:47 PM, dgalehouse said:

I can't fault Dombrowski for the post season failures. There is just so much any head of baseball operations can do. He put together a team that was capable of winning it all. Anything can happen in a short series , and the Phillies got beat by a very good and very hot Mets team. And that is why the 2018 Sox were so special. They dominated from wire to wire. 108 wins . 11-3 in the post season against some very strong opponents.  You seldom see that kind of dominance.  This Phillies  team is very good, but not dominant. 

This Phillies team should be dominant on paper.  All DD (or any CBO) can do is make them look good on paper.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, it's just never as simple as we'd like it to be.

I think he did an excellent job given the mandate most of us assume he had.

He should not be blamed for being handed a massive budget to work with. He did pretty well with his biggest contracts, although the Price deal lessened the return we got for Betts. The Sale extension hurt, but to me, it made more sense at the time than the Yoshida signing plus deals like Gio+Kluber+ Richards + Perez x 2.

One major criticism he got, at the time was "emptying the farm," or "leaving it barren." Call it luck on some of his guys, but the fact is he kept maybe the best 6 out of 6 or 7 prospects.

Devers, Houck, Duran, Crawford, Rafaela, Beni

He drafted or IFA signed:

Houck, Duran, Casas, Crawford (most were not high draft picks)

Bello, Rafaela (IFAs)

Shugart, Murphy, Bastardo, Wikelman, B Gonzalez 

Shaun Anderson (traded for Nunez), Scherff (for Robles), Blaylock (for Urias) Quiroz (for Brewer)

This is better than decent, considering lower draft picks.

 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

This Phillies team should be dominant on paper.  All DD (or any CBO) can do is make them look good on paper.

Agreed, and I'd say the same about the 2019 Sox. Sure, he let Kimbrell and kelly walk without replacing them, but he was accused of overkilling it on the 2018 team, so blaming him for 2019 seems far-fetched, to me.

It also begs the question about how high were expectations going into 2014 or 2022.

If you look at the 2021 roster and consider Bloom added Wacha, Strahm, Hill and got our best season out of Schreiber and Story in '22, one can wonder why it all turned so sour. 

On paper, it looks like the winter moves should have helped.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Moreland and Nunez hit good pinch-hit home runs that helped win two World Series games. 

That's good enough for anybody.

Pearce was World Series MVP, then tried to play all banged-up for one more year when he had to retire at age 29. He also got paid by Boston that last, lost season -- for around the same amount as the checks Manny once forgot in his glove compartment. John Henry and Co. probably just viewed the Pearce ext. as a reward for his contributions to winning a ring, 

Kinsler couldn't hit a fastball anymore... but 3 out of 4 ain't bad.

Kinsler did solidify the 2B defense, as Nunez looked pretty bad out there. There were also guys like Brasier, who did very well under DD.

[Nick]

On 10/12/2024 at 12:51 PM, Maxbialystock said:

Amazing article in the OP that confirms my criticism of DD over the last several years of postings on talksox.

The article is far more insightful than I've been, but it brings out two themes of mine which absolutely no one else on talksox ever agreed with.  

The first was that the Sox were an irreparable disaster in 2019, which is why DD got fired.  I hasten to add they were brilliant in 2018, for which DD should definitely receive credit.  But after the 2019 season--when the Sox already had the biggest payroll in MLB--it was going to be impossible to keep Mookie Betts away from the far wealthier and healthier (as a franchise) Dodgers, to keep paying the huge salaries of Price and Sale, both of whom were IL candidates, and to replace them with two more pricey starters.  Thus did JH decide to go in a completely different direction with Chaim Bloom of the Tampa Bay Rays.

The second theme was this year's Sox who finished at 81-81, which was just 5 games back of two teams, the Royals and Tigers, who made the postseason with 86-76 records. 

I dubbed this year's Sox the "no-names," by which I meant exactly what the article refers to near the end as homegrown and therefore low-salaried players.  How many times, for example, did I point out that the entire Sox rotation in 2024 were paid less than the Sox closer Jansen?  Plus by far the best position player--highest WAR of 8.7--was $750K/year 4th year player Jarren Duran.  $30M/year Devers was 2d with an OPS of 3.7, less than half of Duran's.  Then came Abreu (OPS 3.5), Rafaela (OPS 2.8), Hamilton (2.6), Wong (1.6), and Gonzalez (1.0).  Plus let's not forget that a freak injury kept bargain basement excellent hitter Casas off the roster for about 100 games.  

Reinforcing my 2d point, I also reminded everyone--and was repudiated endlessly--that no less than 8 freaking MLB teams with lower payrolls than the Sox made it to the postseason:  Arizona, San Diego, KC, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Detroit.  I could have thrown in Seattle, 85-77, whose payroll was 15th to the Sox 11th, and Tampa Bay, 80-82 (just one game back of the Sox), whose payroll was 28th.  

I was in fact the only contributor to talksox who said that spending lots and lots of money wasn't necessarily the best solution, and I said that because I thought DD had inadvertently made that point for me in 2019.  

 

Very good read.

Minor detail but Duran is team controlled for 4 more years. It doesn't square up with your "4th year player". To be exact, he has 2 years and 155 days of service time. The Sox did well to bring him up to the majors at the right time.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and I'd say the same about the 2019 Sox. Sure, he let Kimbrell and kelly walk without replacing them, but he was accused of overkilling it on the 2018 team, so blaming him for 2019 seems far-fetched, to me.

It also begs the question about how high were expectations going into 2014 or 2022.

If you look at the 2021 roster and consider Bloom added Wacha, Strahm, Hill and got our best season out of Schreiber and Story in '22, one can wonder why it all turned so sour. 

On paper, it looks like the winter moves should have helped.

2019 was the beginning of his downfall.  He let Kimbrel and Kelly walk and (as far as anyone can tell) replaced them with Colten Brewer.  His pitching staff was expensive and oft-injured.  And Mookie was unwilling to extend for what DD was offering…

[Nick]

I am on board with Moon about acquiring a top of the line starter. However he missed my point about the likely of THAT happening in my opinion is slim to none.

Moon states perhaps we have 8 years of window with our production farm and young players. Obviously I agree with his assessment and to make it clear, we are talking mainly about the positional players.

Faced with the possibility of not 'going all out' for a starting pitcher, I suggested maybe we focus on building a kick ass bullpen where the contract value and the length is not so daunting as with starters.

I simply threw out five names that came to mind as Sox starters, Giolito, Houck, Kutter, Bello and Fitts. OBVIOUSLY THE STARTING ROTATION HAS TO BE DEEPER. Moon and others are all over me about the starting quintet not being enough. 

All I'm suggesting is that maybe we should focus on the bullpen first. Acquire enough starters to get us to the fifth inning and let the bullpen take over. 

A simple league average in saves would have given us 5 more wins. Our save opportunities ranked 6th in the MLB I believe. That too me tells me bullpen upgrade will yield us the biggest win improvement in 2025.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

48 minutes ago, notin said:

Or Detroit. 
 

I’m not so sure his MO is conducive to working his way out of it unless he has a Yankee/Dodger budget…

He did have to start at the bottom with Detroit.

[Bellhorn04]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

2019 was the beginning of his downfall.  He let Kimbrel and Kelly walk and (as far as anyone can tell) replaced them with Colten Brewer.  His pitching staff was expensive and oft-injured.  And Mookie was unwilling to extend for what DD was offering…

Or for what Henry was offering.

Dave has never been shy about offering top of the market money for elite talent, after all.  

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, it's just never as simple as we'd like it to be.

I think he did an excellent job given the mandate most of us assume he had.

I think he did a great job through 2018 and ignore what didn't work. However, it really came off the rails that offseason for him IMO. 

Nate extension

Wright PED suspension

Shugart 2nd time drug suspension

Sale extension

Xander extension with opt out

No other offseason trades or deals of note even though the transaction log is littered with injury notes. 

Cora rests his rotation in April.

INTL signings: Perales, Garcia Bros, Castro (DD doesn't know who these guys are)

Draft: Cannon, Lugo, Zeferjahn, Song, Murphy, Walter

Acquired Andrew F'n Cashner

It was the only year I can remember that he thought to himself "what if I didn't add anything and just ran back an exhausted team by handing out extensions?"

 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He did have to start at the bottom with Detroit.

How did he trick the Ilitches into spending? That's what I want to know. 

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he did a great job through 2018 and ignore what didn't work. However, it really came off the rails that offseason for him IMO. 

Nate extension

Wright PED suspension

Shugart 2nd time drug suspension

Sale extension

Xander extension with opt out

No other offseason trades or deals of note even though the transaction log is littered with injury notes. 

Cora rests his rotation in April.

INTL signings: Perales, Garcia Bros, Castro (DD doesn't know who these guys are)

Draft: Cannon, Lugo, Zeferjahn, Song, Murphy, Walter

Acquired Andrew F'n Cashner

It was the only year I can remember that he thought to himself "what if I didn't add anything and just ran back an exhausted team by handing out extensions?"

 

It's really hard to repeat in MLB, seemingly harder all the time.  Hasn't happened since 2000.  In 2019 we experienced some of the reasons why that is.  IMHO.

[Bellhorn04]

An interesting discussion would be "Who are the best CBOs in baseball and why?"

Right away I think you'd have to divide them into 2 groups: CBOs with fat budgets and CBOs with tight budgets. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's really hard to repeat in MLB, seemingly harder all the time.  Hasn't happened since 2000.  In 2019 we experienced some of the reasons why that is.  IMHO.

I don't think he needed to repeat 2019, he just didn't need to go out and do the 2019 campaign he did. Also, he really put the Sox in a rough spot with the specific extensions that were signed.  

[Nick]

Maybe we should consider this

2024 3.3M 41, 527 per game

2023 3.1 M 37, 686 per game

2022 2.3M 28,108 per game

2024 1.5M 18,715 per game

The attendance has increased steadily over his 4 years.

From 2007 to 2013, Phillies drew 3M+ fans. They had 5 first place finishes from 2007-2011.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think he needed to repeat 2019, he just didn't need to go out and do the 2019 campaign he did. Also, he really put the Sox in a rough spot with the specific extensions that were signed.  

Was the Bogaerts extension good or bad?  I have to go with good.  They got 3 good years pretty cheap, and it's hard to say the opt out has hurt us.

I was fine with the Eovaldi extension.  Nate has proven he's great when healthy, with health being a constant concern.  Many of us lamented that we didn't keep him.

The Sale extension has been beaten to death, of course.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he did a great job through 2018 and ignore what didn't work. However, it really came off the rails that offseason for him IMO. 

Nate extension

Wright PED suspension

Shugart 2nd time drug suspension

Sale extension

Xander extension with opt out

No other offseason trades or deals of note even though the transaction log is littered with injury notes. 

Cora rests his rotation in April.

INTL signings: Perales, Garcia Bros, Castro (DD doesn't know who these guys are)

Draft: Cannon, Lugo, Zeferjahn, Song, Murphy, Walter

Acquired Andrew F'n Cashner

It was the only year I can remember that he thought to himself "what if I didn't add anything and just ran back an exhausted team by handing out extensions?"

 

Great point and list. Much had nothing to do with a radical cut in winter spending. While the payroll went up, as Maz keeps pointing out, much was due to arb raises and the extensions that just kept the status quo.

There was basically no new spending after 2018, and any new spending in 2020 and 2021 never replaced what was lost, in terms of expiring contracts or players traded away (Betts, Price, Beni...)

I will say, I do not think the nate extension was bad, but it wasn't as good as the JD signing or Kimbrell & Sale trade. The Bogey extension was great, despite the opt-out. I doubt we get him for $20M a year w/o that.

We can say he should have worked to get a non opt out with Bogey and a Betts extension, but that is really speculating on things with too many moving parts.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Was the Bogaerts extension good or bad?  I have to go with good.  They got 3 good years pretty cheap, and it's hard to say the opt out has hurt us.

I was fine with the Eovaldi extension.  Nate has proven he's great when healthy, with health being a constant concern.  Many of us lamented that we didn't keep him.

The Sale extension has been beaten to death, of course.

The Bogaerts extension should have been longer. It was just a bad deal IMO.

I didn't like the Eovaldi extension as he's shown not to be healthy year in and year out. 

[Bellhorn04]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Bogaerts extension should have been longer. It was just a bad deal IMO.

How much longer?  He had a 2.0 fWAR this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, notin said:

2019 was the beginning of his downfall.  He let Kimbrel and Kelly walk and (as far as anyone can tell) replaced them with Colten Brewer.  His pitching staff was expensive and oft-injured.  And Mookie was unwilling to extend for what DD was offering…

Maybe you hit on Dombro's pros and cons: great at signing elite veteran talent, not so good at extending young talent at slightly-below projected market prices... (in other words, making offers a pre-arb star shouldn't refuse when he can be rich for life, even if he blows out a knee or snaps an ankle is never again good as new.)

Mookie was always lowballed -- $200M when he was worth $300M, then $300M when he was worth $365M -- and his mother was always the first cousin of ex-big leaguer Terry Shumpert, so she maybe knew and was made aware of her son's true value.

But before efforts to lock up the Red Sox' best all-around player since George Herman R., there were established primetimers like Price -- who Dombro highballed.

Then again, the one young guy the Phillies chose to ink longterm was Scott Kingery, now a 4A regular at age 30. That decision may have led to the firing of the previous Philly GM... and/or the hiring of Dave D -- who may or may not have been told to take his chances on more sure things.

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How much longer?  He had a 2.0 fWAR this year.

Through 2025, the original extension date.

[dgalehouse]

This is just nitpicking Dombrowski's moves. The important thing is that he took a cellar dwelling team and won three straight division titles. The Sox have not done that before or since. It's like saying the dinner was great, but the chef should be fired because he used a little too much oregano and not quite enough garlic. 

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

This is just nitpicking Dombrowski's moves. The important thing is that he took a cellar dwelling team and won three straight division titles. The Sox have not done that before or since. It's like saying the dinner was great, but the chef should be fired because he used a little too much oregano and not quite enough garlic. 

A cellar dwelling team that had 22 year old Mookie Betts, 22 year old Xander Bogaerts, 25 year old JBJ, 26 year old Rick Porcello and 22 year old Eduardo Rodriguez. He really didn't add that much to the first AL East Division winner.

His offseason moves the first year were:

Trade for Carson Smith

Sign Chris Young

Sign David Price

I guess signing David Price was worth 15 wins? 

 

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

A cellar dwelling team that had 22 year old Mookie Betts, 22 year old Xander Bogaerts, 25 year old JBJ, 26 year old Rick Porcello and 22 year old Eduardo Rodriguez. He really didn't add that much to the first AL East Division winner.

His offseason moves the first year were:

Trade for Carson Smith

Sign Chris Young

Sign David Price

I guess signing David Price was worth 15 wins? 

 

Also Kimbrel.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Also Kimbrel.

Whoopsie. Missed that one.