A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

Just now, Hitch said:

I'be be surprised if either a RP coming in and/or Crochet gets extended now.  

Crochet mentioned yesterday (paraphrasing) that while and extension could be interesting, he kind of wants to see what he can do this year so that he can negotiate under his true value. Make sense. 

I think we're probably done now. Arenado must be feeling sick right now. Unless they do have that one remaining crazy deal up their sleeves. 

I haven't heard what he said yesterday so perhaps he's changed his tune, but middle of last year Crochet had said any team trading for him better be offering an extension if they want him to pitch in the playoffs (paraphrasing).  If they're negotiating, it could just be words to up that deal.....or not

[Hugh2]

If the Sox are going over the LT this year, then it makes sense to start extending guys now.  

I'm not sure whom, but I think we see at least one prominent extension this spring. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I haven't heard what he said yesterday so perhaps he's changed his tune, but middle of last year Crochet had said any team trading for him better be offering an extension if they want him to pitch in the playoffs (paraphrasing).  If they're negotiating, it could just be words to up that deal.....or not

Crochet said yesterday that he's leaning towards just pitching this whole season and seeing how it goes. Sox are going to have to really knock him over with an offer. 

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Which begs the question, when you're looking to sign or trade for a guy who has been in the league for 4-7 years with no injuries are you getting a freak of nature, or are you getting a guy whose luck is about to run out. 

True, but is it better to sign a guy 2-3 years removed from TJS and still under 31?

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I haven't heard what he said yesterday so perhaps he's changed his tune, but middle of last year Crochet had said any team trading for him better be offering an extension if they want him to pitch in the playoffs (paraphrasing).  If they're negotiating, it could just be words to up that deal.....or not

Quotes here. 

 

“My understanding of it is Mission One was getting to camp and then talks would happen or not happen after that,” Crochet told reporters. “As far as that side of things, I like to leave it to my agent. I just like to come out here and focus on playing ball.”

“There’s always pros and cons to everything,” Crochet said. “I think that the long-term security is definitely something attractive. As players, we like to look out for our family first. But with last year being my first taste of starting, part of me also wants to see what I could do with the full season of innings workload

“(I) was on a short leash. Part of me wants to see what I could do in a full season before, I suppose, locking myself into a certain bracket of player.”

 

Could mean anything at this point. I don't foresee an extension happening any time soon though. And to be honest, I'm okay with it. We still don't know for sure what we have with him and he's not selling himself cheaply I wouldn't think. For the extra cost, I'll take the extra security in extending him at the end of the year.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has us projected at 85-77, which is the second best record in the AL (7th in MLB.)

Sox fWAR

4.5 Crochet

4.0 Devers

3.6 Bregman

3.3 Duran

2.9 Houck

2.6 Bello

2.3 Casas

2.0 Abreu

1.8 Buehler & Story, 1.5 Rafaela & Giolito, 1.3 Crawford,  1.2 Yoshida,  1.1 Chapman & 1.0 Anthony

16 players at 1.0 or higher (8 at 2.0 plus)

 

[moonslav59]

litocots is no longer the go-to site for contracts and budgets, but they have us at $7.5M over the first line, and count the full $40M towards the AAV CBT line.

If they are wrong, and or we want to get under  tax line, tare the contracts we could try to trade: (CBT$)

$19.2 x 1 Giolito

$18 x 3 Yoshida

$9.2 x 5 + option Bello (not happening)

$6.3 x 5 Rafaela (unlikely)

[moonslav59]

The Bregman signing has perked up my optimism for sure, and I don't want to burst anyone's bubble. The guy has a 1.250 OPS at Fenway and is a real pro.

That being said, he has a .795 OPS since 2020. That's a 5 year sample size. It's a 122 OPS+, which is very helpful, but this is not the 7-8 WAR guy from 2018-2019.

If the thought is to balance the L-R situation, his OPS vs LHPs since 2023 is .704 (.746 since 2020.)  Hell, trade-talk-guy, Casas, is over .790.

We need to maximize this guys value by playing him at 3B and batting him 2nd- hoping his .315 OBP in '24 was a fluke.

[moonslav59]

As much as I crap on our pen, here are the top 4 pen guys from the ALE teams: (projected fWAR)

BOS: 1.1 Chapman, 0.8 Whitlock, 0.7 Hendriks, 0.5 Slaten

NYY: 1.4 Williams, 0.8 Cruz, 0.7 Hamilton, 0.6 Weaver

BAL: 1.6 Bautista, 0.9 Akin, 0.4 3 guys

TOR: 1.4 Hoffman (may start) 0.5 Y Garcia, 0.2 C Green, 2 at 0.1

TBR: 1.0 Fairbanks, 0.5 Uceta, 0.3 Cleavinger, 0.2 M Rod

[moonslav59]

How desperate is STL to trade Arenado, now?

It appears the Sox were their best chance. Apparently, Bregman agreeing to play 2B was part of the Sox choice. I still can't believe we paid $40M per for a .795 hitter to play off position.

Arendao did agree to play 1B, but unless we trade Casas, it makes no sense talking to STL, anymore. They don't want Masa, but they could still cut some major budget by adding Contreras to the deal.

Would anyone trade Casas & Yoshida (no money) for Arenado (no money) and Contreras?

How about Arenado & a Catcher from Herrera or Pages? (We'd have to add cash.)

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

litocots is no longer the go-to site for contracts and budgets, but they have us at $7.5M over the first line, and count the full $40M towards the AAV CBT line.

If they are wrong, and or we want to get under  tax line, tare the contracts we could try to trade: (CBT$)

$19.2 x 1 Giolito

$18 x 3 Yoshida

$9.2 x 5 + option Bello (not happening)

$6.3 x 5 Rafaela (unlikely)

Nobody is going to want Giolito after coming off surgery. Maybe an in season deal, but not during ST. 

Bello is too cheap of a deal to move as a cost cutting measure. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How desperate is STL to trade Arenado, now?

It appears the Sox were their best chance. Apparently, Bregman agreeing to play 2B was part of the Sox choice. I still can't believe we paid $40M per for a .795 hitter to play off position.

Arendao did agree to play 1B, but unless we trade Casas, it makes no sense talking to STL, anymore. They don't want Masa, but they could still cut some major budget by adding Contreras to the deal.

Would anyone trade Casas & Yoshida (no money) for Arenado (no money) and Contreras?

How about Arenado & a Catcher from Herrera or Pages? (We'd have to add cash.)

Casas and Yoshida for Arenado and Contreras? NO!

Arenado and a catcher for prospects? NO! Are the Sox running a senior circuit here or are they trying to get Campbell and Anthony a path to MLB at some point? 

[Hugh2]

While I still think there's a small chance for another bullpen arm to be added (Robertson)? I think the roster is pretty much set.  Sure, there will be some battles in camp and an odd man out of two but I'm fairly certain our 26 man roster is now in this organization.  

They will be playing games in a week. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

While I still think there's a small chance for another bullpen arm to be added (Robertson)? I think the roster is pretty much set.  Sure, there will be some battles in camp and an odd man out of two but I'm fairly certain our 26 man roster is now in this organization.  

They will be playing games in a week. 

I'll be at a game in 4 weeks!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Have to agree with notin and JasonBay that depth is a good thing to have for a team with true championship aspirations. That's why I'm not overly concerned with Yoshida on the roster -- or on the bench (mainly because I don't care what Bloom already blew on him). He's here, he can hit, so he can help.

I only care about having as many good players on the 26 or 40 as possible. 

Nobody complained in 2018 how much Nunez or Moreland were making when they pinch hit home runs in the World Series, or when Brock Holt hit for the cycle in the Bronx.

[notin]

So Kyle Finnegan.

Over the last 3 years, probably the most consistent reliever in MLB.  The variation in any stat over that stretch is minimal.  Except saves, which have been increasing.  If you sign him, you know what you’re getting.  
 

Yet last year he went from being an All Star to getting non-tendered by a bad team in just 6 months.  And now here it is, mid-February, and he is still unemployed.  He was projected for a very affordable $4.5 mill in arbitration.  
 

Maybe he wants a lot more, but it’s not like he ever even got to the point of exchanging salaries in arbitration.  At first I wondered why the Sox are out.  But really, why is everyone else, too?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

So Kyle Finnegan.

Over the last 3 years, probably the most consistent reliever in MLB.  The variation in any stat over that stretch is minimal.  Except saves, which have been increasing.  If you sign him, you know what you’re getting.  
 

Yet last year he went from being an All Star to getting non-tendered by a bad team in just 6 months.  And now here it is, mid-February, and he is still unemployed.  He was projected for a very affordable $4.5 mill in arbitration.  
 

Maybe he wants a lot more, but it’s not like he ever even got to the point of exchanging salaries in arbitration.  At first I wondered why the Sox are out.  But really, why is everyone else, too?

He has been the 1st percentile in EV over the past two seasons and 4th and 2nd percentiles in Hard Hit% as well. High velo, but low spin rates and doesn't strike many guys out. It's not a 4 seamer that profiles well. It could be scaring off data heavy clubs. He also could be holding out for more money than teams want to pay him? IDK.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas and Yoshida for Arenado and Contreras? NO!

Arenado and a catcher for prospects? NO! Are the Sox running a senior circuit here or are they trying to get Campbell and Anthony a path to MLB at some point? 

We traded our catching prospect, and catching is one of our weakest areas.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We traded our catching prospect, and catching is one of our weakest areas.

That doesn't mean I want to take on a 3 year contract for a waning player to get a middling catcher. If Breslow really wanted a defensive minded catcher, he has the assets to deal for a young one. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He has been the 1st percentile in EV over the past two seasons and 4th and 2nd percentiles in Hard Hit% as well. High velo, but low spin rates and doesn't strike many guys out. It's not a 4 seamer that profiles well. It could be scaring off data heavy clubs. He also could be holding out for more money than teams want to pay him? IDK.

Maybe he does not matric well, as you say.   He just seems like an odd choice to have been non-tendered in the first place, given that I think he is the first player ever to be selected to an All Star team and then get non-tendered later than same year.

The complete lack of rumors about him is the most surprising.   Small link to the DBacks this week, but then they went and signed Kendall "Back from The" Graveman... 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe he does not matric well, as you say.   He just seems like an odd choice to have been non-tendered in the first place, given that I think he is the first player ever to be selected to an All Star team and then get non-tendered later than same year.

The complete lack of rumors about him is the most surprising.   Small link to the DBacks this week, but then they went and signed Kendall "Back from The" Graveman... 

The Nats are weird. They signed Lopez for 3M and a bunch of starters. That team won a WS and then just folded. Embarrassing organization. I can't really speak to the exact reasons Finnegan isn't signed, but that's all I could come up with. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

That doesn't mean I want to take on a 3 year contract for a waning player to get a middling catcher. If Breslow really wanted a defensive minded catcher, he has the assets to deal for a young one. 

He's paid the same as Yoshida, who is part of the trade.

I would not call Contreras "middling." He is also aging very well:

OPS+ 106 in '20> 109>126>123>136 in 2025

8th in FWAR from 2022-24 for Catchers at 8.4. Yes, his D is questionable, but he led all catchers in wRC+ since '22 at 147. He blows away all but one catcher in OPS:

.885 Willson C

.859 William C

.791 Murphy

.785 Realmuto

.771 Perez

Wong is 14th at .731.

I also mentioned Herrera or Pages.

[oldtimer]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas and Yoshida for Arenado and Contreras? NO!

Arenado and a catcher for prospects? NO! Are the Sox running a senior circuit here or are they trying to get Campbell and Anthony a path to MLB at some point? 

I'm in agreement with you on this and in particular on finding a path to the majors for both Campbell and Anthony. With Bregman coming to the Sox, and with 2nd base as the expected position we have blocked the most logical position for Cambell. Bregman helps us with lineup balance but does nothing to solve our defensive shortcomings at the corners or at catcher.  Now Campbell and Anthony must break in to a set outfield to into ML games. I have advocated trading Yoshida and Abreau to open space for these top prospects., I hope that the Sox don't drag out their promotion for another year.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I'm in agreement with you on this and in particular on finding a path to the majors for both Campbell and Anthony. With Bregman coming to the Sox, and with 2nd base as the expected position we have blocked the most logical position for Cambell. Bregman helps us with lineup balance but does nothing to solve our defensive shortcomings at the corners or at catcher.  Now Campbell and Anthony must break in to a set outfield to into ML games. I have advocated trading Yoshida and Abreau to open space for these top prospects., I hope that the Sox don't drag out their promotion for another year.

The suggested trade in no way blocks Campbell, Anthony or Mayer. In fact, it helps ease the move of Bregman to 3B and Devers to 1B, which takes Bregman off 2B's block of Campbell.

Trading Yoshida means no OF time for him, and more for others, like Anthony.

[harmony]

On 2/13/2025 at 9:36 AM, moonslav59 said:

Fangraphs has us projected at 85-77, which is the second best record in the AL (7th in MLB.)x fWAR

 

 

Where does FanGraphs project the Red Sox with 85 wins?

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

Roster Resource projects the following Red Sox lineup (with Steamer and ZiPS wRC+ projections):

Jarren Duran (111/114)

Rafael Devers (130/131)

Alex Bregman (122/119)

Triston Casas (123/124)

Masastaka Yoshida (117/116)

Trevor Story (81/88)

Wilyer Abreu (108/109)

Connor Wong (90/98)

Ceddanne Rafaela (89/93)

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

Will opponents exploit the bottom of the Red Sox order? Will Kristian Campbell (115/119) and Roman Anthony (102/104) provide relief?

[Bellhorn04]

Vegas, the true experts, have bumped the Red Sox over/under from 84.5 to 86.5.

[moonslav59]

Sandoval to the 60 Day IL to make room for Bregman. No surprise.

It's surprising to hear Bregman turned down $171M/6 w DET, and there was an opt-out after 2026!

The talk that nobody wants to play in Boston just took a major hit.

The talk that JH will never spend big, again took a hit, although this is still just a large contract- not large and long, so that aspect is still debate worthy.

I'm hopeful that Bregman will help this team in ways not seen in data. He was a big clubhouse guys, here in HOU. He helped many player adjust and get better, often with specific recommendations that worked, bigtime. He even learned Spanish, so he could better relate to the many Spanish-speaking teammates he had over the years.

He's had enormous success at Fenway, even when our pitching was very good.

It's hard to keep the optimism down. Breslow deserves a big pat on the back. These are the players Breslow has added to the 26, who will play in their first Sox game in 2025:

Crochet & Bregman

Buehler & Giolito

Hendriks & CHapman

Wilson & maybe Fulmer & Sandoval

Narvaez & maybe these 3 not added by Brez: Campbell, Anthony and Mayer.

That's 13 players not part of the 2024 MLB 26 man roster.

Then, there are hopes for seeing many more games from Story, Casas and Whitlock.

Technically, spring has not arrived, yet, but it has for Sox fans!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Where does FanGraphs project the Red Sox with 85 wins?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Thanks

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, harmony said:

Thanks

I was surprised to see this, as they still have us far down in the rankings of team fWAR projections with Bregman added in. In fact, I don't think we moved up at all from pre-Bregman, which I found odd.

They still have us 18th in MLB and 10th in the AL, but give us the second best record in the AL.