A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Clarke is a new name.  Insert wide eye emoji here. 

He thought Jet Blue was Wally World because a big green monster lives there.

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

5th rounder last year. Only one or two of them even went to affiliated teams last season so most of them haven't been scouted outside of the org. Will know more about the 2024 draftees after this Spring. 

This is what SP says: 

Fastball: 93-97 mph. Tops out at 99 mph. Command and control are a work in progress.

But that won't stop the bombarding questions about the 2024 draft class, I can already hear the response on the soxprospect podcast now.  

At this point we pretty much now what the national scouting reports say.  But once they start playing games, and guys get eyes on them things can change.  People will dissapoint, and some will pop. 

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

But that won't stop the bombarding questions about the 2024 draft class, I can already hear the response on the soxprospect podcast now.  

At this point we pretty much now what the national scouting reports say.  But once they start playing games, and guys get eyes on them things can change.  People will dissapoint, and some will pop. 

The hitters that were drafted really didn't show much at all. Every guy had an OPS under 500! 

Neely, Clarke, Aita and Tygart got decent signing bonuses. If I had to hitch my cart to two of those 4 horses it would be Neely (closer) and Tygart (bulk innings guy like Crawford). We've already heard a lot about Cason and Tolle so not much of a need to mention those two. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He's Rule 5 eligible this offseason and probably destined for the pen. I wouldn't have any concerns moving on from him.

Yup.

Here are all this winter's Rule 5 players:

December 2025

Karim Ayubi
Alex Binelas
Miguel Bleis
Caleb Bolden
Jonathan Brand
Taylor Broadway
Allan Castro
Juan Chacon
Isaac Coffey
Nathanael Cruz
Noah Dean
Kelvin Diaz
Matt Donlan
Shane Drohan
Nate Eaton
Max Ferguson
Nathan Hickey
Alex Hoppe
Blaze Jordan
Ahbram Liendo
Enderso Lira
CJ Liu
Andy Lugo
Marcelo Mayer
Tyler McDonough
Daniel McElveny

Alvaro Mejias
Tyler Miller
Yordanny Monegro
Juan Montero
Hayden Mullins
Christian Nunez
Wyatt Olds
Jedixson Paez
Eybersson Polanco
Luis Ravelo
Eduardo Rivera
Dalton Rogers
Ronald Rosario
Corey Rosier

David Sandlin

Michael Sansone
Armando Sierra
Phillip Sikes
Adam Smith
Noah Song
Cristofer Soriano
Christopher Troye
Tyler Uberstine
Brian Van Belle
Diego Viloria
Jacob Webb
Jeremy Wu-Yelland

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Guess who MLB.com deems the Most Unpredictable Team this year (based on odds to make the postseason):

1. Red Sox: 37.3-point difference
FanGraphs: 51.0% | PECOTA: 13.7%

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Guess who MLB.com deems the Most Unpredictable Team this year (based on odds to make the postseason):

1. Red Sox: 37.3-point difference
FanGraphs: 51.0% | PECOTA: 13.7%

Interest Kings and Most Unpredictable Team - it's amazing the stuff we are leaders at.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Interest Kings and Most Unpredictable Team - it's amazing the stuff we are leaders at.

Unlike most other teams that are also all about winning championships, Boston seasons don't really depend on acquisitions any more.

Wait -- Danielle from American Pickers is on the line for Breslow and Bailey: "Got a lead on an old abandoned indoor batting cage. Owner says it hasn't been opened for years and will consider any offers. Some rusty machines, buckets of used baseballs, but get this -- a few mummies wearing batting helmets... "

B&B: "We are ON IT!"

[moonslav59]

I can see why we can be viewed as the most unpredictable with so many players returning from injury and or joining the 26 man roster for the first time with Boston:

Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Hendriks, Chapman, Wilson & Narvaez

Players who missed most of 2024's MLB season:

Whitlock, Story, Casas, Grissom, Guerrero, Fitts, Priester and more...

These players make-up about half of the projected 26 man roster.

Other teams have many questions, too, but not really at this level.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can see why we can be viewed as the most unpredictable with so many players returning from injury and or joining the 26 man roster for the first time with Boston:

Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Hendriks, Chapman, Wilson & Narvaez

Players who missed most of 2024's MLB season:

Whitlock, Story, Casas, Grissom, Guerrero, Fitts, Priester and more...

These players make-up about half of the projected 26 man roster.

Other teams have many questions, too, but not really at this level.

But most of them share the same question: Why did the Red Sox -- one of the richest MLB clubs in revenue, fan interest and tradition -- stop spending on top talent?

[notin]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But most of them share the same question: Why did the Red Sox -- one of the richest MLB clubs in revenue, fan interest and tradition -- stop spending on top talent?

“Baseball players are expensive.” - John Henry

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Guess who MLB.com deems the Most Unpredictable Team this year (based on odds to make the postseason):

1. Red Sox: 37.3-point difference
FanGraphs: 51.0% | PECOTA: 13.7%

I kind of agree that it's hard to pin down what this team will be. 

At best, this starting rotation could be dominant and the Sox offense is just good enough (Devers, Casas, Duran, Campbell, Anthony) to slide them towards 90 wins and an easy playoff birth. 

At worst, injuries and bad defense hampers the pitching while the offense suffers through a mediocre year as the Sox fall below .500 again. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Interest Kings and Most Unpredictable Team - it's amazing the stuff we are leaders at.

When you don't spend, it's all you got. 

[mvp 78]

AL East 

NYY 87 wins

BOS 84 wins

BAL 83 wins

TB 83 wins

TOR 82 wins

[Bellhorn04]

Vegas's 84.5 O/U for the Sox looks golden.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

AL East 

NYY 87 wins

BOS 84 wins

BAL 83 wins

TB 83 wins

TOR 82 wins

So the White Sox trade away their best player, add no one noteworthy, and win 21 more games?

 

I’ll take the WAY UNDER

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

So the White Sox trade away their best player, add no one noteworthy, and win 21 more games?

 

I’ll take the WAY UNDER

Well, Pythagoras had them as big time underperformers last season and they've signed more FA MLB players this offseason than the Red Sox. I think they can limp to 60 wins.

[vegasbob]

If the  pitching additions ( Crochet, Buehler, Chapman et alia) and injury recoveries ( Hendricks, Whitlock , Giolito, etc) come through with  career average performances, combined with no loss of production from Bello, Houck, Crawford ( role TBD) , then this could be a high 80's win team competing to the end of September.

OTOH,   amongst the many pitchers ( 24)  currently on the 40 man roster, how many of the top 13 expected on the 26 man active roster will make it out of June with no significant injury.  For that matter, how many will be available to pitch at the conclusion of ST in late march.  

In fact if you consider Chapman and K. Jansen some what equal talents, the BP will be the weak spot on this team,  potentially boosted by Whitlock and Crawford possibly.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, vegasbob said:

If the  pitching additions ( Crochet, Buehler, Chapman et alia) and injury recoveries ( Hendricks, Whitlock , Giolito, etc) come through with  career average performances, combined with no loss of production from Bello, Houck, Crawford ( role TBD) , then this could be a high 80's win team competing to the end of September.

Of the 9 pitchers you listed, 6 are SP'ers. We are the only team with 6 SP'ers with a projected fWAR or 1.2 or more. That suggests that we can maybe withstand 1-2 injuries to the rotation better than most teams. We then have Criswell (over 1 WAR on '24) and some promise in Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and Fulmer in AAA with Criswell.

To me, our pen is the big concern, and the worry is at the top: we have no sure thing as a lockdown closer. You did not mention Slaten, but I think we have a pretty nice set-up crew of 4 arms in Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten and Whitlock. One will have to be the closer, so we drop to 3. It's not a bad 4, but it's not top 10, IMO, and one could argue it's not top 15, either. 2 missed all or most of 2024, and Chapman has been in a decline mode for a while. I kinda like Wink as the 5th guy, and he can go 2-3 IP, if needed, but the rest are marginal, with some having various levels of promise. The plus to the pen's lower the #5 pitchers is that there is a pretty large numbers of them, many already on the 40, as our roster is sorely lacking everyday player depth on the 40. (No real biggies, as Anthony, Campbell & Mayer are poised to be added, in a flash, if needed.)

One issue coudl arise: we have to cycle through 12-15 pitchers to settle on last 2-3 pitchers on the 13 man staff. We could lose a lot of game playing the process of elimination game.

Guerrero, Weissert, Bernardino

Penrod, Kelly, I Campbell

Mata, Mills, Moran

N Davis, Stock, Adams

Harris, Newcomb or a converted SP (Gambrell, Drohan, Fulmer, Dobbins, Fitts, Priester, Criswell)

Some are not on the 40, but many are, already. Same with the pen: if we have an injury or two, we look to be better positioned to replace the injured pitchers with something maybe more decent than other teams have on their depth chart and deep depth charts.

Key word: MAYBE.

[vegasbob]

In agreement with Moon that there is numerical , if not talent depth , in the total pitching  part of the roster, including some at Worcester who are not yet on the 40.

One problem is that among the top 6 of the 12-15 Moon listed as fighting for the last 2-3 staff positions.

I'll submit that observationally the following have low ceilings and are fillers at best:   Bernadino;  Weissert; I Campbell;  Zach Kelly . 

Kelly and Weissert turn 30 before regular season starts and Bernardino is 33 and not a small sample size now.

Of all the names listed by Moon,  Fitts showed some spark in his limited 2024 opportunities for the Sox . He will be in his 25 year old season 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

In agreement with Moon that there is numerical , if not talent depth , in the total pitching  part of the roster, including some at Worcester who are not yet on the 40.

One problem is that among the top 6 of the 12-15 Moon listed as fighting for the last 2-3 staff positions.

I'll submit that observationally the following have low ceilings and are fillers at best:   Bernadino;  Weissert; I Campbell;  Zach Kelly . 

Kelly and Weissert turn 30 before regular season starts and Bernardino is 33 and not a small sample size now.

Of all the names listed by Moon,  Fitts showed some spark in his limited 2024 opportunities for the Sox . He will be in his 25 year old season 

I totally agree.

Weak at closer.

Weak at #11-13 of staff.

Good at #1-6 SP

Good at #2-5 RP

Good at #13-20 pitching depth.

[Larry Cook]

In the past, we have had numbers for pitching prospects in the minors, and gotten very little actual contributions from them in Boston. And maybe the fact that in the past couple of years, we actually are getting contributions from home grown pitchers is altering my view, but, This current batch of pitching prospects think, has the ability to actually have some contributors in Boston eventually . 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

In the past, we have had numbers for pitching prospects in the minors, and gotten very little actual contributions from them in Boston. And maybe the fact that in the past couple of years, we actually are getting contributions from home grown pitchers is altering my view, but, This current batch of pitching prospects think, has the ability to actually have some contributors in Boston eventually . 

Yes. I have mentioned how DD's farm was not as bad as some suggested, and that the trio of Houck, Bello and Crawford were the best 3 from the farm in a very long time. We wiggled and wormed our way into acquiring Whitlock, Wink, Slaten, Fitts, Priester & Sandlin.

While Bloom was benefited by DD's sleepers, he was in charge during their "development" and made a few shrewd moves to bolster the staff. (Too many failed, for sure.)

[moonslav59]

The Cubs are reportedly shopping RHB Suzuki to cut costs. He's owed $19M x 2 ($17M AAV on CBT.)

How about expanding the deal to save them even more, while we get to dump some lesser salaries, ourselves.

$137M/5 RHB Swanson SS and $38M/2 ($25.3 AAV) & RHB Suzuki OF/DH (Total: $175M and $42M AAV +$6M x 3 paid towards Yoshida= $48M AAV vs $41.3M now)

for

$77.5M/3 Story ($23.3 AAV) and $55.8M/3 Yoshida ($18M AVV) + $6M x 3 yrs = Total: $115M and $35M AAV

Add 2 from Crawford, Abreu or Cespedes/Bleis.

Would you move Swanson to 3B for Mayer or try Mayer or Campbell at 3B, when we finally moves Devers to 1B/DH?

[Hitch]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Cubs are reportedly shopping RHB Suzuki to cut costs. He's owed $19M x 2 ($17M AAV on CBT.)

How about expanding the deal to save them even more, while we get to dump some lesser salaries, ourselves.

$137M/5 RHB Swanson SS and $38M/2 ($25.3 AAV) & RHB Suzuki OF/DH (Total: $175M and $42M AAV +$6M x 3 paid towards Yoshida= $48M AAV vs $41.3M now)

for

$77.5M/3 Story ($23.3 AAV) and $55.8M/3 Yoshida ($18M AVV) + $6M x 3 yrs = Total: $115M and $35M AAV

Add 2 from Crawford, Abreu or Cespedes/Bleis.

Would you move Swanson to 3B for Mayer or try Mayer or Campbell at 3B, when we finally moves Devers to 1B/DH?

There are times when the trades you come up with feel like they're from the mind of a mad man. 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

There are times when the trades you come up with feel like they're from the mind of a mad man. 

My OCD has migrated to the Sox, almost exclusively. (I'm still a contract bridge fiend, as well.)

[Larry Cook]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Cubs are reportedly shopping RHB Suzuki to cut costs. He's owed $19M x 2 ($17M AAV on CBT.)

How about expanding the deal to save them even more, while we get to dump some lesser salaries, ourselves.

$137M/5 RHB Swanson SS and $38M/2 ($25.3 AAV) & RHB Suzuki OF/DH (Total: $175M and $42M AAV +$6M x 3 paid towards Yoshida= $48M AAV vs $41.3M now)

for

$77.5M/3 Story ($23.3 AAV) and $55.8M/3 Yoshida ($18M AVV) + $6M x 3 yrs = Total: $115M and $35M AAV

Add 2 from Crawford, Abreu or Cespedes/Bleis.

Would you move Swanson to 3B for Mayer or try Mayer or Campbell at 3B, when we finally moves Devers to 1B/DH?

Aren’t the cubs heavily interested in Bergman???

[notin]

23 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Well, Pythagoras had them as big time underperformers last season and they've signed more FA MLB players this offseason than the Red Sox. I think they can limp to 60 wins.

If they can do better than 5-34 against Detroit, Kansas City, and Minnesota, it would help Boston.

But it just seems more likely they take a few of those 5 remaining steps backwards…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Aren’t the cubs heavily interested in Bergman???

No more heavily than Boston is…

[notin]

6 hours ago, Hitch said:

There are times when the trades you come up with feel like they're from the mind of a mad man. 

They’re from the mindset of “we need to run Yoshida out of town and pretend the Sox will spend the savings!!”  
 

So I can see where madman fits…

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

If they can do better than 5-34 against Detroit, Kansas City, and Minnesota, it would help Boston.

But it just seems more likely they take a few of those 5 remaining steps backwards…

But they sure played the Red Sox tough last year!

I'd say even a 5-34 mark reflects a certain amount of randomness, and it's extremely likely they better that mark next year.