A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

What is a reasonable expectation for our top 3 prospects, assuming they play a full season in the bigs in 2025?

Campbell: Plus D at 2B. (.290 20 75?) .345/.445/.790?

Anthony: Plus D in the OF (.280  20  75) .335/.435/.770?

Mayer: PLus D at SS or 2B (.285  15  70) .335/.415/.750?

Could we see this line-up in 2025?

1. Duran CF

2. Campbell 2B

3. Casas 1B

4. Devers 3B

5. Story 2B

6. Abreu RF (Rafaela v RHPs batting 9th)

7. Anthony LF

8. Mayer SS

9. Wong C

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

What is a reasonable expectation for our top 3 prospects, assuming they play a full season in the bigs in 2025?

Campbell: Plus D at 2B. (.290 20 75?) .345/.445/.790?

Anthony: Plus D in the OF (.280  20  75) .335/.435/.770?

Mayer: PLus D at SS or 2B (.285  15  70) .335/.415/.750?

Could we see this line-up in 2025?

1. Duran CF

2. Campbell 2B

3. Casas 1B

4. Devers 3B

5. Story 2B

6. Abreu RF (Rafaela v RHPs batting 9th)

7. Anthony LF

8. Mayer SS

9. Wong C

I don’t have any expectations of the top 3 suspects making the team out of ST let alone playing a full season.  I also don’t see Anthony playing LF. I certainly wouldn’t project what they would do in their Rookie year either.🙈

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t have any expectations of the top 3 suspects making the team out of ST let alone playing a full season.  I also don’t see Anthony playing LF. I certainly wouldn’t project what they would do in their Rookie year either.🙈

Good to know. If you dont project you can never be wrong.

On Anthony not being in LF- sounds like a prediction. I think he'd better in CF or RF, but maybe not better than Duran-RAF in CF or Abreu in RF- you know, the GG winner who "kicks the ball around RF."

[Randy Red Sox]

6 hours ago, notin said:

And track and field (and swimming) went even longer with manually-operated stopwatches.  They don’t anymore.  Because electronic timers are better.
 

The act of calling balls and strikes is the single most difficult task for any official in any sport.  The task requires deciding whether or not a projectile traveling 100mph touched any part of an invisible box of varying size.

 

A home plate ump would still make the official call.  He is still going to make fair/foul calls on anything that hasn’t reached first or third base yet (when the base umps get jurisdiction).  He is still going to make calls or call for help on check swings.  And he is still going to call strikes on swings and misses on OOZ pitches that the system will call “balls” because the system does not involve batters.  Also the home plate ump is responsible for HBPs.

It’s not just “once every 5 games” calls.  If they eliminated umps for making calls that infrequently, would they keep the guy at 3b? How often does he make an out/safe call on a close play?

you make some good points here but i  still think real live umps are best for the game

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you make some good points here but i  still think real live umps are best for the game

I don't see any plus side. The umps will still be there. They will still yell out "Balle!" "Strike" "Out" "Safe!"

I don't see any gains with bad calls and players having to try and guess what an ump will call a strike or not.

Consistent calls will help everyone know what they need to do- no excuses.

[Hitch]

A little off topic - 

If we don't sign Bregman I'm fine with that. We have the best prospects in the game almost ready - I want to see them play over Bregman, especially over the idiotic idea of playing him at 2nd.  I don't want us to spend money just to say we've spent it. But one of the biggest reasons there's anger about the organisation comes from Kennedy and his tendency to speak out of both sides of his mouth, simultaneously saying nothing and overpromising. It's a hell of a talent.

How much better would the atmosphere be if management were more honest in the way Cohen has just been. This followed chants from the crowd to sign Alonso, and ended with a round of applause. 

 

“We made a significant offer to Pete,” Cohen said. “He’s entitled to explore his market. That’s what he is doing. Personally, this has been an exhausting conversation and negotiation. I mean, Soto was tough — this is worse.

“A lot of it is, we made a significant offer … I don’t like the structures that are being presented back to us. It’s highly asymmetric against us. And I feel strongly about it. I will never say no. There’s always the possibility. But the reality is we’re moving forward. And as we continue to bring in players, the reality is it becomes harder to fit Pete into what is a very expensive group of players that we already have. That’s where we are. And I am being brutally honest.

“I don’t like the negotiations. I don’t like what’s been presented to us. Listen, maybe that changes. Certainly, I’ll always stay flexible. If it stays this way, I think we are going to have to get used to the fact that we may have to go forward with the existing players that we have.”

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see any plus side. The umps will still be there. They will still yell out "Balle!" "Strike" "Out" "Safe!"

I don't see any gains with bad calls and players having to try and guess what an ump will call a strike or not.

Consistent calls will help everyone know what they need to do- no excuses.

Not to mention when the NFL proposed replay rules, the cry was “but bad calls are part of the game!”  I probably said it myself.  Maybe more than once.

A lot of it is a typical resistance to change.  Adding automated balls and strikes isn’t a stupid change, like a ghost runner.  Or an atrocity, like the proposed Golden Batter Rule.  It simply takes the hardest part of an umpire’s job and does the heavy lifting for him.

Pending changes to implement the automated ball/strike system might be part of the reason why the Sox were hesitant to move off Connor Wong behind the plate…

[notin]

15 hours ago, Old Red said:

I don’t have any expectations of the top 3 suspects making the team out of ST let alone playing a full season.  I also don’t see Anthony playing LF. I certainly wouldn’t project what they would do in their Rookie year either.🙈

That’s great.  Any thoughts on what you WOULD do?

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Hitch said:

A little off topic - 

If we don't sign Bregman I'm fine with that. We have the best prospects in the game almost ready - I want to see them play over Bregman, especially over the idiotic idea of playing him at 2nd.  I don't want us to spend money just to say we've spent it. But one of the biggest reasons there's anger about the organisation comes from Kennedy and his tendency to speak out of both sides of his mouth, simultaneously saying nothing and overpromising. It's a hell of a talent.

How much better would the atmosphere be if management were more honest in the way Cohen has just been. This followed chants from the crowd to sign Alonso, and ended with a round of applause. 

 

“We made a significant offer to Pete,” Cohen said. “He’s entitled to explore his market. That’s what he is doing. Personally, this has been an exhausting conversation and negotiation. I mean, Soto was tough — this is worse.

“A lot of it is, we made a significant offer … I don’t like the structures that are being presented back to us. It’s highly asymmetric against us. And I feel strongly about it. I will never say no. There’s always the possibility. But the reality is we’re moving forward. And as we continue to bring in players, the reality is it becomes harder to fit Pete into what is a very expensive group of players that we already have. That’s where we are. And I am being brutally honest.

“I don’t like the negotiations. I don’t like what’s been presented to us. Listen, maybe that changes. Certainly, I’ll always stay flexible. If it stays this way, I think we are going to have to get used to the fact that we may have to go forward with the existing players that we have.”

Brutal honesty from a man outspending almost everyone, except maybe the Dodgers is easier to handle.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Not to mention when the NFL proposed replay rules, the cry was “but bad calls are part of the game!”  I probably said it myself.  Maybe more than once.

A lot of it is a typical resistance to change.  Adding automated balls and strikes isn’t a stupid change, like a ghost runner.  Or an atrocity, like the proposed Golden Batter Rule.  It simply takes the hardest part of an umpire’s job and does the heavy lifting for him.

Pending changes to implement the automated ball/strike system might be part of the reason why the Sox were hesitant to move off Connor Wong behind the plate…

Bad calls have been part of the game and will continue to be, but there is no reason to not try and fix as much as you can.

Maybe some fans enjoy yelling at the umps more than watching the game, but not me.

We have teams preparing their batters and pitchers for each game, based on who the ump is, and even then, that ump might throw a corkscrew into his MO and mess everything up by calling the game differently than his norm. Batters swinging at pitches they know are a ball, but this ump has been calling them strikes, all game. This should not be part of baseball.

It does not have to be this way.

[Bellhorn04]

7 hours ago, Hitch said:

A little off topic - 

If we don't sign Bregman I'm fine with that. We have the best prospects in the game almost ready - I want to see them play over Bregman, especially over the idiotic idea of playing him at 2nd.  I don't want us to spend money just to say we've spent it. But one of the biggest reasons there's anger about the organisation comes from Kennedy and his tendency to speak out of both sides of his mouth, simultaneously saying nothing and overpromising. It's a hell of a talent.

How much better would the atmosphere be if management were more honest in the way Cohen has just been. This followed chants from the crowd to sign Alonso, and ended with a round of applause. 

 

“We made a significant offer to Pete,” Cohen said. “He’s entitled to explore his market. That’s what he is doing. Personally, this has been an exhausting conversation and negotiation. I mean, Soto was tough — this is worse.

“A lot of it is, we made a significant offer … I don’t like the structures that are being presented back to us. It’s highly asymmetric against us. And I feel strongly about it. I will never say no. There’s always the possibility. But the reality is we’re moving forward. And as we continue to bring in players, the reality is it becomes harder to fit Pete into what is a very expensive group of players that we already have. That’s where we are. And I am being brutally honest.

“I don’t like the negotiations. I don’t like what’s been presented to us. Listen, maybe that changes. Certainly, I’ll always stay flexible. If it stays this way, I think we are going to have to get used to the fact that we may have to go forward with the existing players that we have.”

It's refreshing to have a guy like Cohen be so candid with everyone.  Feels like this was the unvarnished truth.

[moonslav59]

As of now, spotrac has the Sox payroll ranked 14th. If anything, we are still moving in a downward direction, despite Sam the Scam's statements about the tax line not being an issue.

The Dodgers, Phillies, Mets and Yanks have a firm grip on the top 4 slots ($271M to $291M.) I'm not sure how deferrals are counted, but it seems like the Dodgers should be higher.

There is an almost $50M drop to the next group: TOR, HOU, TEX and ATL ($200M to $224M.)

While my groupings are arbitrary, we could join the third group with a Bregman signing: SDP, LAA< CHC ($177M to $194M)

The middle of the pack, or 4th group is 3 deep, too: SFG $163M, BOS $158M and BAL $146M.

SEA, MN and STL are $125M to $133M

5 teams fall between $90M and $110M: COL, KC, MIL, DET and CIN. Most of these teams  are really not all that bad, either.

CLE & WSH are at $77M

The bottom 5 are so far removed from the pack, it's not even funny. Soto makes more than the Marlins.

$64M PIT, $61M CWS, $60M TBR, $54M Athletics, $43M MIA.

 

[harmony]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What is a reasonable expectation for our top 3 prospects, assuming they play a full season in the bigs in 2025?

Campbell: Plus D at 2B. (.290 20 75?) .345/.445/.790?

Anthony: Plus D in the OF (.280  20  75) .335/.435/.770?

Mayer: PLus D at SS or 2B (.285  15  70) .335/.415/.750?

Steamer600 projections that assume 600 plate appearances for each hitter:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer600&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1737862779&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

[moonslav59]

These are their traditionally conservative OPS projections:

849 Devers 871 in '24

811 Casas .800 in '24

.781 Yoshida .765

.770 Campbell

.769 Duran .834

.758 Ref .830

.750 Abreu .781

.725 Grissom .465

.725 Anthony

.717 Romy .723

.697 Rafaela .664

.697 Jh Garcia

.692 Wong .758

.685 Mayer

.666 DHam .697

.666 Story .733

They do have two rookies placed in out top 9.

[moonslav59]

Here is where the Sox rank by fangraph's projections by position:

30th SS (Story 1.0 and 588 PAs)

28th Catcher (Narvaez 0.6 in less PAs than Wong at 0.5 fWAR)

16th CF (Duran 1.6, Rafaela 1.1)

14th LF (Duran at just 1.6 and Anthony at 0.5 in LF)

13th 2B (2.0 Campbell, 0.6 Grissom &0.4 DHam w a big drop)

13th DH (Yoshida 1.2)

11th RF (Abreu 1.6, Anthony 0.4)

11th 1B (Casas 2.4 w Romy, Ref & Wong getting some time)

2nd 3B (Devers 4.1)

I think they grossly undervalue our OF, despite the loss of O'Neill.

4th SP (Best in AL) 4.8 Crochet, 2.7 Houck, 2.5 Bello. 1.7 Crawford, 1.4 Buehler, 1.2 Buehler (Only the Rays and Reds also have 6 SP'ers at 1.2 or better.)

2nd RP (Only MIN is ranked higher!) This is the shocker, to me. They list 11 pitchers with a plus fWAR, but nobody above 1.1.

1.1 Hendriks

1.0 Chapman

0.7 Whitlock

0.6 Slaten

0.2 Weissert & Bernardino

0.1 Wilson, Fulmer, Wink, Priester & Penrod

TEAM: 13th at 41.3 (just behind TOR 41.7, SEA 42.2)

Adding Bregman would likely jump us into 9th or 10th place

We are 4th in Pitching and 24th in "Batting," which must include defense.

 

[jdc69]

8 hours ago, Hitch said:

A little off topic - 

If we don't sign Bregman I'm fine with that. We have the best prospects in the game almost ready - I want to see them play over Bregman, especially over the idiotic idea of playing him at 2nd.  I don't want us to spend money just to say we've spent it. But one of the biggest reasons there's anger about the organisation comes from Kennedy and his tendency to speak out of both sides of his mouth, simultaneously saying nothing and overpromising. It's a hell of a talent.

How much better would the atmosphere be if management were more honest in the way Cohen has just been. This followed chants from the crowd to sign Alonso, and ended with a round of applause. 

 

“We made a significant offer to Pete,” Cohen said. “He’s entitled to explore his market. That’s what he is doing. Personally, this has been an exhausting conversation and negotiation. I mean, Soto was tough — this is worse.

“A lot of it is, we made a significant offer … I don’t like the structures that are being presented back to us. It’s highly asymmetric against us. And I feel strongly about it. I will never say no. There’s always the possibility. But the reality is we’re moving forward. And as we continue to bring in players, the reality is it becomes harder to fit Pete into what is a very expensive group of players that we already have. That’s where we are. And I am being brutally honest.

“I don’t like the negotiations. I don’t like what’s been presented to us. Listen, maybe that changes. Certainly, I’ll always stay flexible. If it stays this way, I think we are going to have to get used to the fact that we may have to go forward with the existing players that we have.”

I would say, it's easier to be honest when you are offering lots of money than it is when you are penny pinching, aka being more creative imo. I wouldn't doubt if we were trying not to show our hand on purpose, yes, because we are not completely sure of what we want but also to keep as an element of surprise against the press and adversaries. Mostly the press. 

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's refreshing to have a guy like Cohen be so candid with everyone.  Feels like this was the unvarnished truth.

I think if Cohen was being completely honest ( the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth ) he would just say that "Alonso is not as good as he and his agent think he is. And I am already spending a ton on this team. Screw him." 

[notin]

11 hours ago, Hitch said:

A little off topic - 

If we don't sign Bregman I'm fine with that. We have the best prospects in the game almost ready - I want to see them play over Bregman, especially over the idiotic idea of playing him at 2nd.  I don't want us to spend money just to say we've spent it. But one of the biggest reasons there's anger about the organisation comes from Kennedy and his tendency to speak out of both sides of his mouth, simultaneously saying nothing and overpromising. It's a hell of a talent.

How much better would the atmosphere be if management were more honest in the way Cohen has just been. This followed chants from the crowd to sign Alonso, and ended with a round of applause. 

 

“We made a significant offer to Pete,” Cohen said. “He’s entitled to explore his market. That’s what he is doing. Personally, this has been an exhausting conversation and negotiation. I mean, Soto was tough — this is worse.

“A lot of it is, we made a significant offer … I don’t like the structures that are being presented back to us. It’s highly asymmetric against us. And I feel strongly about it. I will never say no. There’s always the possibility. But the reality is we’re moving forward. And as we continue to bring in players, the reality is it becomes harder to fit Pete into what is a very expensive group of players that we already have. That’s where we are. And I am being brutally honest.

“I don’t like the negotiations. I don’t like what’s been presented to us. Listen, maybe that changes. Certainly, I’ll always stay flexible. If it stays this way, I think we are going to have to get used to the fact that we may have to go forward with the existing players that we have.”

On Bregman, the Cubs acquired RHRP Ryan Pressly today, possibly opening up budget to fit Bregman, which kills any interest from Boston,..

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

On Bregman, the Cubs acquired RHRP Ryan Pressly today, possibly opening up budget to fit Bregman, which kills any interest from Boston,..

It seems that way, and we know JH will not raise his bid.

BTW, HOU is paying part of Pressley's contract.

The Cubs may not sign Estevez, now, so maybe we move in on him as a target.

[Randy Red Sox]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's refreshing to have a guy like Cohen be so candid with everyone.  Feels like this was the unvarnished truth.

John Henry doesn't dare show his face around town

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It seems that way, and we know JH will not raise his bid.

BTW, HOU is paying part of Pressley's contract.

The Cubs may not sign Estevez, now, so maybe we move in on him as a target.

only if he will take a 1 yr-2 million deal

[moonslav59]

HOU is paying $5.5M of Pressley's deal.

I'm not sure if thats enough to squeeze in Bregman.

[Larry Cook]

Do you think the medicals have come back bad on flattery????  If so, shouldn’t bres-slow be all over signing this guy????

[moonslav59]

Trevor Bauer to sign and play in Japan.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you think the medicals have come back bad on flattery????  If so, shouldn’t bres-slow be all over signing this guy????

We don't need SP'ers.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

only if he will take a 1 yr-2 million deal

Maybe 2 with team option for 3 and buyout.

[Hitch]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Brutal honesty from a man outspending almost everyone, except maybe the Dodgers is easier to handle.

 

15 hours ago, jdc69 said:

I would say, it's easier to be honest when you are offering lots of money than it is when you are penny pinching, aka being more creative imo. I wouldn't doubt if we were trying not to show our hand on purpose, yes, because we are not completely sure of what we want but also to keep as an element of surprise against the press and adversaries. Mostly the press. 

Fair points. I understand that there is a level of secrecy with these things al the time, and not tipping your hat, but being a but more straight up about things would quash a lot of the frenzy people get themselves into, ready clickbait articles that make it appear like the club are in on, and missing out on, everyone. 

But then, maybe they just don't care about things.

There's possibly a difficulty in being open about things, if as suggested, Cora and Breslow come down on different sides of the Bregman debate. 

[Hitch]

12 hours ago, notin said:

On Bregman, the Cubs acquired RHRP Ryan Pressly today, possibly opening up budget to fit Bregman, which kills any interest from Boston,..

Possibly, but as pointed out by Moon, not a full salary dump. 

I'm having a hard time believing that the Bregman offer from Houston is really still on the table. Despite Dana Brown's comments, and reports that the six-year, $156 million offer is still there, I find it hard to believe Bregman wouldn't sign that today if it was. He doesn't seem to have a huge market and I'd be very surprised if he can top that.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Possibly, but as pointed out by Moon, not a full salary dump. 

I'm having a hard time believing that the Bregman offer from Houston is really still on the table. Despite Dana Brown's comments, and reports that the six-year, $156 million offer is still there, I find it hard to believe Bregman wouldn't sign that today if it was. He doesn't seem to have a huge market and I'd be very surprised if he can top that.

He may choose HOU, even if some other team beats their price.

The Sox have reportedly stuck to their guns, as they do, with a shorter term offer- maybe 4 years, tops.

Apparently, there have been multiple long term deals offered, but that could just be Boras bluster.

I read somewhere that Devers is still resisting a change of position, but who knows what to believe.

Adding Grichuk and Estevez might be the better plan, but I doubt we see that happening, either.

We will be counting on 1-2 of our top prospects to fill in the holes, but there is also a decent chance some returning players step up their game.

2B: If DHam can repeat or improve on how he did after his second call-up and just one from Romy & Grissom can do well as his platoon, we may not need Campbell at 2B.

SS: IF Story can.... I know.... broken record.... we may not need Mayer in 2025.

OF: If Abreu can start hitting lefties, and Rafaela improves on his hitting, we may not need Anthony or Campbell in the OF in 2025.

C: We need Narvaez to not be a total bust on O. Maybe the new Yankee catching coach can help Wong's D improve.

Corner IF D: Maybe the Bregman talk has lit a fire under Devers to improve his D, so he won't be moved to DH/1B, at least for a while longer.

Lots of ifs and maybes, but we don't need all of these to come true to be a serious contender.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

Possibly, but as pointed out by Moon, not a full salary dump. 

I'm having a hard time believing that the Bregman offer from Houston is really still on the table. Despite Dana Brown's comments, and reports that the six-year, $156 million offer is still there, I find it hard to believe Bregman wouldn't sign that today if it was. He doesn't seem to have a huge market and I'd be very surprised if he can top that.

Why would Bregman sign it today if he wants more?  Despite that it’s been going on for a while, the off-season isn’t almost over.  He does still have time…