A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Correct.  14 saves/22 holds/5 blown sales = an actual conversion record of 36/41 which is very good.  

That is verygood, but there is a reason he has been used less and less as a "closer" since 2019, which was 6 years ago.

BTW, Jansen was not great, in 2024 and he was 27/31 in Sv situations (no holds.) He was 29/33 in 2023.

Kimbrel was 92/102, including 2 holds w BOS.

Uehara was 86/96, including 14 olds w BOS (34/37 in 2013)

Papelbon was 39/42 in 2007

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

So you’re saying he wasn’t a bargain basement pickup when he was released by the A’s?

You're saying that. I'm saying LA was smart enough to make their own luck and sign a good player who now has multiple rings.

And I was ragging on Muncy when he was worthless vs. the Yanks. But he's way better than any free agent position player signing of the Bloom/Brez Error -- and please don't throw one-and-done guys at me, guys they were too cheap to pay market value to and hang onto for any fan continuity whatsoever.

I'd type more, but -- quick, the Red Sox music stopped again, and I have to go find a chair... and they're really tight.

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

No, the Dodgers are just so lucky in guys when they spend $300 million on signings.

To them Freeman was practically a bargain basement guy.

[dgalehouse]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

True that Hendricks WAS an effective closer, but that was back in 2021-2022. He pretty much hasn’t pitched since then, will turn 36, and coming off an arm injury. Who knows what he has left, and what you’ll get out of him. Fulmer is coming off an arm injury, and so is Whit, so that’s my biggest concern. 

I think Slaten and Guerrero are worth noting also. They will definitely be a part of it all. 

[dgalehouse]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Jansen was 56/64 in save opportunities for us.  That's 87.5%.  I'd say the gold standard is 90%, but that's pretty hard to do.

Rivera's career % was 91.3.

Closing ain't easy. No matter how good you are, people always remember the bad stuff. Even Mariano Rivera, without a doubt the GOAT,  is often remembered for the few times that he failed. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To them Freeman was practically a bargain basement guy.

Dodger fans would laugh at our misery.

The Dodgers approach to building annual rosters isn't comparable to the Red Sox or any other MLB teams anymore. LA shops at Filene's Basement, and Filene's Kitchen, and Filene's Penthouse, and every floor in between in every other major and minor department store in every city in every country. 

The Red Sox shop in the Dominican in little fishing villages like Las Galeras (translation The Galleys), where about 7,000 people live -- and if they're lucky -- one of them plays baseball as good as Brayan Bello.

Boston does pretty good spelunking in the Dominican, and once the Sox accumulate enough affordable prospects, the front office vows to use its vast capital to surround them with big league talent.

That's what their CBOs and President keeps promising... year after year after year. 

[jad]

Some numbers here:    1-5, 5.38, 20million 

Uh "What is ... a typical RS signing."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not an ungrateful Red Sox fan.

I can say without hesitation Pedro Martinez was certainly the greatest pitcher in Red Sox history, and that no one in baseball history has come close to his unique accomplishments...

... and not only because he dominated the biggest, baddest batters on steroids, won three Cy Youngs, and had the most extreme statistics. 

Pedro made pitches to bring three world championships to Boston. One was on the mound, the others were on the phone -- when he called the front office and talked them into signing DFAvid Ortiz. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm not an ungrateful Red Sox fan.

I can say without hesitation Pedro Martinez was certainly the greatest pitcher in Red Sox history, and that no one in baseball history has come close to his unique accomplishments...

... and not only because he dominated the biggest, baddest batters on steroids, won three Cy Youngs, and had the most extreme statistics. 

Pedro made pitches to bring three world championships to Boston. One was on the mound, the others were on the phone -- when he called the front office and talked them into signing DFAvid Ortiz. 

Pedro was "the man," for sure. He was an intense competitor and a winner.

[moonslav59]

What would you say the odds are we sign Bregman or Scott (not both?)

I'd say 1 in 3.

What about one from Estevez, Yates, Finnegan and Grichuk?

I'd say better than 1 in 2, with maybe a 1 in 3 chance we sign Grichuk and a RP'er.tor that could 

One factor that could limit those chances is an extension to Crochet or a top 3 prospect or two.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Closing ain't easy. No matter how good you are, people always remember the bad stuff. Even Mariano Rivera, without a doubt the GOAT,  is often remembered for the few times that he failed. 

He had 58 saves vs BOS. Anyone know how many blown saves he had vs the Red Sox?

Including playoffs?

[moonslav59]

There is probably a slim chance all 3 top pjury at MIrospects win a FT job over the season, even if there is an in MI and OF, but this could be the look, if it happens without any injuries:

C: Wong/Narvaez

1B: Devers/Casas

DH: Casas/Devers

2B: Story/Campbell

SS: Mayer/Story

3B: Campbell/Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Anthony/Rafaela

RF: Abreu/Campbell/Anthony

 

1. Duran

2. Campbell

3, Casas

4. Devers

5. Story

6. Anthony

7. Abreu/Rafaela

8. Mayer

9. Wong/Narvaez

 

[Larry Cook]

Scott to the dodgers 

[moonslav59]

All these Dodger additions keep piling up.  

It will make it more fun to watch, if they don't win the WS, but they are sure doing their best to ensure than cannot happen.

[moonslav59]

Adding Estevez, Yates or maybe Finnegan might move the needle, a little bit, and Bregman is probably the biggest impact player left for the Sox, but to me, he is not the one FA I'd have chosen to go go large & long on.

I doubt we get Bregman, anyway.

I guess another meaningful trade could get me optimistic, but we fell short of what I had hoped we might do.

Nothing has changed.

[Larry Cook]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Adding Estevez, Yates or maybe Finnegan might move the needle, a little bit, and Bregman is probably the biggest impact player left for the Sox, but to me, he is not the one FA I'd have chosen to go go large & long on.

I doubt we get Bregman, anyway.

I guess another meaningful trade could get me optimistic, but we fell short of what I had hoped we might do.

Nothing has changed.

Estevez could help. 
Bregman may be headed to Detroit 

[moonslav59]

Dodging Dodger Denominations:

700/10 Ohtani '24

365/12 Betts '21

325/12 Yamamoto '24

182/5 Snell '25

162/6 Freeman '22

140/10 Will Smith '24

137/5 Glasnow '24

74/5 Edman '25

72/4 Scott '25

66/3 Teoscar '25, 22/2 Treinen '25, 17/1 Conforto '25 + Sasaki

24/2 Muncy '24

60/4 Taylor '22

I probably missed someone.

 

 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Estevez could help. 
Bregman may be headed to Detroit 

I do think adding Estevez or one of the others would make it a significant upgrade for the pen over 2024, but we ended the season as the worst pen in MLB (2nd half,) so "significant might mean just getting to the middle tier.

Add: _____, Chapman, Hendriks, Wilson, Whitlock and more pen IP by several pitchers already in the system.

Lost: Jansen & Martin, but also Anderson, Keller and many more bad IP from others.

 

The rotation was not bad, last year and saw the most improvement of any other area on the team. We added Crochet, Buehler, Giolito and maybe a half season from Sandoval. Our depth looks better than last winter. We have a better looking Criswell & Fitts, but also Priester & Dobbins.

Our offense took a hit by losing O'Neill, but some returning players and some age progressions could more than make up for the loss. We also have Campbell, Anthony and Mayer banging, loudly on the MLB door, yet none are even on the 40, yet.

Our defense, once again, will rely on the return of Story for there to be an upgrade. The OF D might improve with more games from Rafaela and none from O'Neill, but if Yoshida plays a lot more, that would be nullified. Corner IF still sucks and has to be the MLB worst, when combined. Our C sucks, despite the promise Narvaez brings on D. I will say, I think our 2B defense has to be better than 2024. Losing E Valdez (468 innings was the leader at 2B in playing time, by far) and Westbrook (102,) Reyes (39) and Gasper/Wong's 49 innings comes to almost half the total innings. DHam (267) and Romy (130) looked real good at 2B D, but Grissom (245) did not.  How much we improve at 2B D  might depend on how much Grissom plays or if he improves or not. Campbell cannot be any worse than the team average at 2B in 2024. I see a sure plus at 2B D, especially if DHam and Campbell or Romy gte over 1000 innings, there. So, hopefully better MI D and OF D, while staying the same at corner IF and C. I'm not sure this moves the needle much, but better D at SS. 2B, CF and RF can't hurt.

Add a decent RP'er, and we should be faves to just barely make the playoffs, but we'd need a ton to go right to advance far,

[moonslav59]

By replacing Shugart with Sabol on the 40, we now have  17 everyday players on the roster. One is Jh Garcia, who is highly unlikely to playML ball in 2025. That leaves 3 everyday players in the minors that are on the 40:  Narvaez or Sabol Romy or Grissom and Sogard. This also includes a couple near "DH only guys- Yoshida & Ref in the group of 13. This has to change by opening day.

Of course, having ML ready prospects like Campbell, Anthony and Mayer in the system that do not need to be on the 40, until we need them on the 26 helps, a lot. We don't need to have a lot more everyday players, because they are basically "on 24 hour call." 
 

Here are the pitchers on the 40:

Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford

Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero,

Sandoval & Murphy to 60 Day IL, day one.

AAA: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Weissert, Bernardino, Kelly, Penrod

Non 40 man roster pitchers who may easily see action in 2025: Fulmer, Adams, I Campbell, Mata, Moran, H Harris, N Davis, Mills, Stock, Adames, Gambrell, Drohan and maybe Y Cruz, Hoppe, Troye, Sandlin or Early starting the year in AA.

[moonslav59]

An optimist might look at the numbers from recent years and think it isentirely possible a good amount of the recent seasons by fWAR could be repeated in 2025: 

6.7 Duran '24

5.0 Devers '22 (was on pace for this in '24 before injury)

3.1 Abreu '24

3.0 Story BOS career per 160 gms

2.5 DHam projected to 150 games '24

2.2 Casas '23 projected to 650 PAs

1.5 Refsnyder projected to full '24 season

1.1 Wong '24

1.0 Rafaela '24 + 0.1, Yoshida full '24 season, Grissom ''22 plus about 50 more  PAs.

Pitching

5.6 Buehler '21

4.7 Crochet '24

3.9 Houck '24

2.4 Crawford '23

1.8 Sandoval 1/2 of '22 season

1.6 Bello '23

Pen

2.7 Hendriks '21

2.7 Whitlock '21

1.8 Chapman '23

1.5 Slaten '24

1.1 Criswell '24

1.0 Wildon "20 x 2

0.8 Wink '23

No way will all of these happen or even come close to happening, but how many have to come close to see a nice season from the Sox in 2025?

I don't see Hendriks or Chapman coming close to the numbers I posted, here, but everyone else seems doable. (DHam might be a stretch, and Story coming close to 150 games, too.)

Could we see:

6.5 Duran, 4.5 Devers, 3.0 Casas & Abreu, 2.5 Story and a Yoshida-Ref platoon, 1.5 Wong, DHam and maybe a couple prospects.

5.0 Crochet, 4.5 Buehler & Houck, 2.5 Bello and maybe 2.5 from Gio+Crawford

2.5 Whitlock, 2.0 Hendriks, 1.8 Chapman, 1.7 Slaten, 1.0 Criswell, 0.9 Wink, and maybe 0.5 from Wilson, Guerrero and one other guy

 

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think adding Estevez or one of the others would make it a significant upgrade for the pen over 2024, but we ended the season as the worst pen in MLB (2nd half,) so "significant might mean just getting to the middle tier.

Add: _____, Chapman, Hendriks, Wilson, Whitlock and more pen IP by several pitchers already in the system.

Lost: Jansen & Martin, but also Anderson, Keller and many more bad IP from others.

 

The rotation was not bad, last year and saw the most improvement of any other area on the team. We added Crochet, Buehler, Giolito and maybe a half season from Sandoval. Our depth looks better than last winter. We have a better looking Criswell & Fitts, but also Priester & Dobbins.

Our offense took a hit by losing O'Neill, but some returning players and some age progressions could more than make up for the loss. We also have Campbell, Anthony and Mayer banging, loudly on the MLB door, yet none are even on the 40, yet.

Our defense, once again, will rely on the return of Story for there to be an upgrade. The OF D might improve with more games from Rafaela and none from O'Neill, but if Yoshida plays a lot more, that would be nullified. Corner IF still sucks and has to be the MLB worst, when combined. Our C sucks, despite the promise Narvaez brings on D. I will say, I think our 2B defense has to be better than 2024. Losing E Valdez (468 innings was the leader at 2B in playing time, by far) and Westbrook (102,) Reyes (39) and Gasper/Wong's 49 innings comes to almost half the total innings. DHam (267) and Romy (130) looked real good at 2B D, but Grissom (245) did not.  How much we improve at 2B D  might depend on how much Grissom plays or if he improves or not. Campbell cannot be any worse than the team average at 2B in 2024. I see a sure plus at 2B D, especially if DHam and Campbell or Romy gte over 1000 innings, there. So, hopefully better MI D and OF D, while staying the same at corner IF and C. I'm not sure this moves the needle much, but better D at SS. 2B, CF and RF can't hurt.

Add a decent RP'er, and we should be faves to just barely make the playoffs, but we'd need a ton to go right to advance far,

Breslow needs to focus on relievers who will accept a 1 yr deal which is the orders from above. Thankfully there are a long list of such scrubs still available. 

[moonslav59]

Yates & Grichuk is probably the best we can hope for.

[jad]

On 1/18/2025 at 9:47 AM, notin said:

You do realize the Dodgers are bigger bargain basement hunters than the Sox, right?

A $300mill roster and they still have Max Muncy playing 3b? 

On the other hand, if you own a closet full of Gucci bags, I guess it's fine if you buy your socks at Ross' Dress for Less.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, jad said:

On the other hand, if you own a closet full of Gucci bags, I guess it's fine if you buy your socks at Ross' Dress for Less.

Marshall's has a special: Buy a yates and get a Grichuk for free.

[moonslav59]

You think, if we sign Grichuk, we trade Abreu for a C, RP or prospect?

[moonslav59]

I've never mentioned Santander as an option, but he is reportedly willing to go short term, if he does not get near his asking price.

The guy is a switch hitter with 44 HRs in '24. He K's, a lot and has a low OBP (.308,) but he'd be the fix we need for a RHB. He's not great on D, so he'd likely play LF, Duran/Rafaela CF and Abreu/Rafaela RF, or we call up Anthony and trade Abreu to fix another hole.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You think, if we sign Grichuk, we trade Abreu for a C, RP or prospect?

Sox tanking the season already? 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've never mentioned Santander as an option, but he is reportedly willing to go short term, if he does not get near his asking price.

The guy is a switch hitter with 44 HRs in '24. He K's, a lot and has a low OBP (.308,) but he'd be the fix we need for a RHB. He's not great on D, so he'd likely play LF, Duran/Rafaela CF and Abreu/Rafaela RF, or we call up Anthony and trade Abreu to fix another hole.

He's a switch hitter with pull power as a LHB. Not ideal for Fenway. 

[mvp 78]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a switch hitter with pull power as a LHB. Not ideal for Fenway. 

Santander just signed with the Jays for 5/90.

[win red sox]

Santander. xwOBA .324

Yoshi.         xwOBA .322 with a bum shoulder and thumb.