A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, and Yoshida was 7th- while playing hurt, so worthy of staring, right?

So overall, O'Neill was 2.5 fWAR and Yoshida was 0.8.  

Yoshida is only worthy of starting at DH because there aren't better options.  He's a barely above replacement level guy. 

And if he's in the OF it's an even worse scenario. 

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox had 194 HR last year, 9th in MLB.

Subtract O'Neill's 31 and you get 163, which would be 23rd in MLB.

We are looking at a very low power offense unless the kids do something about it.

And I think I'm more worried about Devers than most.  How exactly are his shoulders going to be healthier than last year, which he finished in extremely feeble fashion?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

All this is moot anyway, Cora is not putting him in the outfield bar an emergency, no matter the quotes coming out.

Bet.

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We all know the real reason the Red Sox don't want Yoshida to play any more left field:

The owners are so cheap that they're afraid they'll have to keep replacing light bulbs on the Green Monster from wall balls that Masa misses.

It's a very memorable highlight from a non-out that wasn't embarrassing for the fielder. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He's the worst though. 

Sounds personal between you and Masa. Sorry to hear it. 

[mvp 78]

2025 will be the Story and Masa revenge tour. 

[Duran Is The Man]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox had 194 HR last year, 9th in MLB.

Subtract O'Neill's 31 and you get 163, which would be 23rd in MLB.

We are looking at a very low power offense unless the kids do something about it.

And I think I'm more worried about Devers than most.  How exactly are his shoulders going to be healthier than last year, which he finished in extremely feeble fashion?

you're not the only one. like i said before, i really believe this is the year Devers goes down for an extended period. then who do we have to play third?

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2025 will be the Story and Masa revenge tour. 

Like Sale they would probably have to play for someone else.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

You're doing yourself no favours by including Alvarez and Teoscar on that list. There's a reason you can forgive poor defense when players hit 30+ home runs a season and deliver 4 and 5 WAR seasons. Even Buxton with his limitation is a superior player to Yoshida. His fielding cost the Sox 12 runs - the 5th most in all of baseball. 

Yoshi can hit a bit. That's it. Can't field, can't throw, can't run. And as much as you'd like to divorce the conversation from the contract, unfortunately, all that needs taking into account and we are hugely overpaying for a one dimensional (and decent at best) player.

All this is moot anyway, Cora is not putting him in the outfield bar an emergency, no matter the quotes coming out.

 

 

I agree on Masa not doing much of a sniff in the OF unless he’s still looking for that ball that got stuck in that lightbulb in the wall.

[Bellhorn04]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sounds personal between you and Masa. Sorry to hear it. 

Sorry, I don't make the metrics, I just look at them.

 

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like Sale they would probably have to play for someone else.

Because nobody has ever had a bounce back year here... 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So overall, O'Neill was 2.5 fWAR and Yoshida was 0.8.  

Yoshida is only worthy of starting at DH because there aren't better options.  He's a barely above replacement level guy. 

And if he's in the OF it's an even worse scenario. 

Even worse than what, though?

If he's in the OF more than 10 games, it is very likely due to an addition at 3B or 1B, and overall, we'll likely be better on D and O, despite Yoshida being in LF. We aren't putting Yoshida in LF so Abreu can DH.

Yoshida in LF, when the DH slot is not used by Casas or Devers makes very little sense to me, but without Anthony on the 26, I can see wanting to sit Abreu vs LHPs with Refsnyder in LF, those games. I doubt I'd want to sit Rafaela vs RHPs, so Yoshida plays LF instead of DH.

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Because nobody has ever had a bounce back year here... 

Sale got out from under the bad injury juju that has enveloped Boston the past few years that has bitten Story since he’s been here, and got Gio last year. I don’t think ANYONE is saying nobody has ever had a bounce back year in Boston.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

you're not the only one. like i said before, i really believe this is the year Devers goes down for an extended period. then who do we have to play third?

Romy or Grissom, or Mayer on a crash course like Bogey had when he was called up (10 games at 3B in AAA.)

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even worse than what, though?

If he's in the OF more than 10 games, it is very likely due to an addition at 3B or 1B, and overall, we'll likely be better on D and O, despite Yoshida being in LF. We aren't putting Yoshida in LF so Abreu can DH.

Yoshida in LF, when the DH slot is not used by Casas or Devers makes very little sense to me, but without Anthony on the 26, I can see wanting to sit Abreu vs LHPs with Refsnyder in LF, those games. I doubt I'd want to sit Rafaela vs RHPs, so Yoshida plays LF instead of DH.

They only way I see Masa spending much time in the OF this coming year is if Masa is raking at the time, and not hitting pingpong ball to the IF, and someone like Raffy being injured, so he can’t play in the field, but can DH.

[Hugh2]

90 wins....book it

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

They only way I see Masa spending much time in the OF this coming year is if Masa is raking at the time, and not hitting pingpong ball to the IF, and someone like Raffy being injured, so he can’t play in the field, but can DH.

If we add a 3Bman and don't trade Casas, Yoshida will play more LF than any of us want. Casas and Devers should play 155-162 games at 1B and DH, leaving maybe 10 games open for Yoshida or Ref to DH, barring injuries.

It's not ideal, but as of now, our corner IF sucks, and without Ref in the OF, Abreu might have to start vs LHPs.

No added 3BMan should mean 10 or less games for Yoshi in LF.

Yes added 3BMan likely means Yoshida plays LF vs LHPs (Duran in CF & Rafaela in RF) and maybe some games vs RHPs (Duran in CF and Abreu in RF with rafaela on the bench.)

Duran and Rafaela are close to even on D in CF, so there is no drop off, there. The drop off is in LF, going from Duran to Yoshida, but the upgrade at 3B should more than outweigh the loss in LF.

Again, not ideal. Signing Grichuk would change this equation, but we have to look at the whole line-up and who Yoshida is playing instead of to get the net gain or loss on O and D

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

90 wins....book it

How much money are you planning to bet on that with your wagering service?

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How much money are you planning to bet on that with your wagering service?

$2.00

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How much money are you planning to bet on that with your wagering service?

I bet they'd win 78 games last year, so I have a history of under estimating them. 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I bet they'd win 78 games last year, so I have a history of under estimating them. 

Me too.  I predicted 80 wins last year.

[moonslav59]

2024 OBP Leaders:

.354 Devers

.349 Yoshida

.342 Duran

.336 O'Neall

.333 Wong

.322 Abreu

.274 Rafaela

Ref was at .359 in 307 PAs/ Story .340 in 106/ Casas .337 in 243/ Romy .306 in 216/DHam .303 in 317

SLG:

.516 Devers

.511 O'Neal

.492 Duran

.459 Abreu

.425 Wong

.415 Yoshida

(.471 Ref/ .462 Casas/ .417 Romy/.395 DHAm/.394 Story)

.

 

[Old Red]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we add a 3Bman and don't trade Casas, Yoshida will play more LF than any of us want. Casas and Devers should play 155-162 games at 1B and DH, leaving maybe 10 games open for Yoshida or Ref to DH, barring injuries.

It's not ideal, but as of now, our corner IF sucks, and without Ref in the OF, Abreu might have to start vs LHPs.

No added 3BMan should mean 10 or less games for Yoshi in LF.

Yes added 3BMan likely means Yoshida plays LF vs LHPs (Duran in CF & Rafaela in RF) and maybe some games vs RHPs (Duran in CF and Abreu in RF with rafaela on the bench.)

Duran and Rafaela are close to even on D in CF, so there is no drop off, there. The drop off is in LF, going from Duran to Yoshida, but the upgrade at 3B should more than outweigh the loss in LF.

Again, not ideal. Signing Grichuk would change this equation, but we have to look at the whole line-up and who Yoshida is playing instead of to get the net gain or loss on O and D

#1 I don’t see the Red Sox signing, or trading for a 3B this year without getting rid of Casas, or Yoshida, so I certainly don’t think there is any big brain storming going on to do that, and in return playing Yoshida in LF. I just don’t see it.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Old Red said:

#1 I don’t see the Red Sox signing, or trading for a 3B this year without getting rid of Casas, or Yoshida, so I certainly don’t think there is any big brain storming going on to do that, and in return playing Yoshida in LF. I just don’t see it.

The language shifted a little on the moving Devers idea. I'm not sure that's a clue that something might be in the works, but I doubt we add a 3Bman, too. If we do, we may trade Casas, so it would take a few things to happen and not happen to force a situation where Yoshida and Ref end up platooning in LF. Right now, we very likely may platoon Ref in LF, with Duran playing CF when not in LF and Abreu sitting vs LHPs.

If we add Grichuk, it would change the OF dynamic. An Anthony call-up and success story would, too.

There is a very slim chance Yoshi gets forced into a meaningful role in LF.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

#1 I don’t see the Red Sox signing, or trading for a 3B this year without getting rid of Casas, or Yoshida, so I certainly don’t think there is any big brain storming going on to do that, and in return playing Yoshida in LF. I just don’t see it.

Speaking of trades, here's the latest trade rumor involving Casas. Casas and Winkowski go to the Cards for Arenado, Helsley and Herrera.

Helsley is one of the best backend relievers in baseball and Herrara is a 24 yr old catcher, who in 72 games with the Cards last season hit .300 with an OPS of .800.

The values of this trade are pretty close. If this is a serious potential trade, I would do it in a NY minute.

 

[Bellhorn04]

24 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Speaking of trades, here's the latest trade rumor involving Casas. Casas and Winkowski go to the Cards for Arenado, Helsley and Herrera.

Helsley is one of the best backend relievers in baseball and Herrara is a 24 yr old catcher, who in 72 games with the Cards last season hit .300 with an OPS of .800.

The values of this trade are pretty close. If this is a serious potential trade, I would do it in a NY minute.

 

That does seem like a good deal and a plausible one for both teams.  I'd do it too.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Romy or Grissom, or Mayer on a crash course like Bogey had when he was called up (10 games at 3B in AAA.)

so, nobody.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That does seem like a good deal and a plausible one for both teams.  I'd do it too.

I question the Cards moving Herrera.  Maybe they like Pedro Pages more than I do?  
 

Of course getting Casas pre-arb should make it worthwhile for them.  I’ve heard that rumor with Crawford instead of Winckowski.  I’d prefer dealing Winckowski, what with all the rebuilt arms in the Sox rotation…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

so, nobody.

Hey Romy was second on the Sox in exit velocity last year.  But I think he bulked it up by getting a disproportionate number of at bats vs LHP…

[notin]

Robert Stock is back, making him the first player acquired by multiple CBO’s since Rich Hill…