A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Cora on Yoshi playing OF...

 

“Yeah, our outfield defense was great last year, but in a perfect world, if he was healthy, he was going to play the outfield,” Cora said, as relayed by Cotillo. “The throwing part of it wasn’t there so that’s the reason he actually didn’t play. Hopefully, we can get him there and we can use him in the outfield, too.”

Watching him in 2023, he didn't look completely terrible. We've definitely seen worse. 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

One of Breslow's stated offseason priorities was to balance the batting line-up with some right-handed hitters.

So far, the Red Sox have lost one -- their team home run champ, O'Neill.

The plan can't just be to play Refsnyder more and get full, healthy seasons out of Story and Grissom -- who have never hit in Boston yet.

If not signing someone actually good (no one's counting on that anymore), or trading for someone mediocre, then Kristian Campbell has to be a key in the heart of the order this year... 

 

The plan might be Campbell, plus those others returning to the line-up (Story, Grissom and more from Ref.)

Casas has been one of our best LHBs vs LHPs, so maybe he helps, too, and word is that Anthony has decent splits, too, as a LHB. Wong has had reverse splits, so maybe he flips that, this year.

These guys have to improve vs LHPs, or they should never start vs them:

Career

.514 Abreu

.539 DHam

We did trade E Valdez (.327 v LHPs) Romy is .802 vs LHPs and Grissom is .727 vs LHPs. Story is at .963, but that was mostly from long ago.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Watching him in 2023, he didn't look completely terrible. We've definitely seen worse. 

If he plays LF, because we upgraded 3B defense and kept Devers and Casas in the lineup as a 1B/DH time share setup, I'd be okay with the downgrade in LF defense. Yoshi and ref would be essentially replacing O'Neill's playing time in the OF- no great glove, there. Duran would play CF (Rafaela, when he rests,) and an Abreu-Rafaela RF would be a great defensive set-up for CF and RF/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

These guys have to improve vs LHPs, or they should never start vs them:

Career

.514 Abreu

.539 DHam

 

Right -- one way to avoid them is to trade them, another is to platoon.

This weekend Cora said he wanted to try Abreu -- his Gold Glove rightfielder -- at 1B, and Hamilton in the OF... to make them more versatile.  Maybe that will also make them more attractive as trade bait.

With pitchers and catchers set to report to ST in about a month, here's one assessment of the Red Sox roster:

1. The starting rotation looks better...

2., 3., and 4. the defense hasn't changed, and the bullpen and batting line-up look worse.

But if all the rehabbing guys make comebacks, don't get re-injured and play like they once did when they were younger and healthier...

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Right -- one way to avoid them is to trade them, another is to platoon.

This weekend Cora said he wanted to try Abreu -- his Gold Glove rightfielder -- at 1B, and Hamilton in the OF... to make them more versatile.  Maybe that will also make them more attractive as trade bait.

With pitchers and catchers set to report to ST in about a month, here's one assessment of the Red Sox roster:

1. The starting rotation looks better...

2., 3., and 4. the defense hasn't changed, and the bullpen and batting line-up look worse.

But if all the rehabbing guys make comebacks, don't get re-injured and play like they once did when they were younger and healthier...

An Abreu-Rafaela RF platoon looks great, to me.

A more complex rotation like this works, too, if Yoshi is the FT DH:

LH: Duran v R/ Ref v L

CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L

RF: Abrey v R/ Rafaela v L

We could flip between the two platoons, giving ref some time at DH, when he's not in LF.

REF needs to start every game vs LHPs. He is clearly our best bat vs LHPs.

[Hugh2]

Sasaki to either LAD or SDP seems like a forgone conclusion at this point.  

With spring training coming up on us fast, we should expect to hear something on Scott/Bregman/Arenado and others soon enough. 

I get the sense the Sox are waiting for the price to come down on Bregman, as Detroit is not signing him either I wonder if Bregman prefers Boston but is waiting on the Tigers to up their offer.  If they bite, and Bregman is gone I think the Sox pivot to Arenado. 

Honestly, as much as we need a RHB, I'd be content if they just sign Scott but I'm most certainly prefer Bregman over Arenado at this point. 

[moonslav59]

Maybe Bregman takes a one year deal to try and reset his value. A park like Fenway might make coming here a big advantage.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe Bregman takes a one year deal to try and reset his value. A park like Fenway might make coming here a big advantage.

I highly doubt that, he put up 4.1 War last year, it wasn't really a down year besides a dip in the BB% 

I don't think there's much of an incentive to how much his value will go up with a monster year next year vs. being 1 year older.  He could have a good year next year, but I think putting up 7-8 WAR seasons is behind him.  

It is more likely that he losses money by waiting a year.  He also strikes me as the kind of guy that just wants to get paid and go play somewhere, he wants to get paid but I suspect whoever is the highest bidder this year will be enough for him to take the long term deal.  

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Sasaki to either LAD or SDP seems like a forgone conclusion at this point.  

They are the only ones without large MiLB commitments at the moment. I still lean towards SD. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe Bregman takes a one year deal to try and reset his value. A park like Fenway might make coming here a big advantage.

Why would the Sox want him for just one year? If he's coming, I'd want him for 3. No more, no less.

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

They are the only ones without large MiLB commitments at the moment. I still lean towards SD. 

LAD also brought their two largest commitments BACK to market.  That strongly suggest they're very very much in this. 

[Hugh2]

 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would the Sox want him for just one year? If he's coming, I'd want him for 3. No more, no less.

The Sox love one year deals, and getting comp picks.

They may think Campbell is ready to play 3B in 2026.

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox love one year deals, and getting comp picks.

They may think Campbell is ready to play 3B in 2026.

Players can't be offered Q.O.'s if they've already received one.  Bregman received one this year. 

So you'd be giving up a pick to sign him for just one year. 

[notin]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would the Sox want him for just one year? If he's coming, I'd want him for 3. No more, no less.

How about three years with opt outs after years one and two, but in each case the Sox have a “no, you’re opting back in” clause?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Players can't be offered Q.O.'s if they've already received one.  Bregman received one this year. 

So you'd be giving up a pick to sign him for just one year. 

The Sox can get that pick back if anyone else ever signs Nick Pivetta.  There’s been surprisingly little buzz for a guy who was supposed to be a hot commodity this off-season…

[Hugh2]

For 6 years of Teel, and 6 years of Montgomery+ for just 4 years total of Crochett.  

 

You gotta swing somewhere.  Trades, extensions, bringing up rookies, signing free agents. 

If you don't want to take a risk anywhere eventually we will be the passive hitter who watches every pitch go by. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, notin said:

The Sox can get that pick back if anyone else ever signs Nick Pivetta.  There’s been surprisingly little buzz for a guy who was supposed to be a hot commodity this off-season…

Yes but they CAN'T get a pick for Bregman next year.  So you're still losing a pick for him, not ideal if you're signing a guy for 1 year. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

How about three years with opt outs after years one and two, but in each case the Sox have a “no, you’re opting back in” clause?

Opt outs with escalators? 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes but they CAN'T get a pick for Bregman next year.  So you're still losing a pick for him, not ideal if you're signing a guy for 1 year. 

Not worth it for 1 year in a non-WS year.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Opt outs with escalators? 

I was thinking that.

For example, year one comes with the Bucc-ee’s pulled pork, but the opt out escalates it to a brisket..

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Watching him in 2023, he didn't look completely terrible. We've definitely seen worse. 

From the other thread....

 

Quote

Yoshida played just one emergency inning in the field in 2024, and even before the injury became public knowledge, there was a pretty simple explanation. During his healthy 2023 season, Yoshida graded out as one of the worst fielders in the game. Although he played left for just under half a season in 2023, Statcast had his fielding costing the Red Sox 12 runs, fifth-most in all of baseball. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Yoshida cost the Red Sox four runs, which is very bad, but not necessarily catastrophic

 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

I was thinking that.

For example, year one comes with the Bucc-ee’s pulled pork, but the opt out escalates it to a brisket..

I'd go: Breakfast Burrito > Beaver Nuggets > Pulled Pork > Brisket

You may be able to get him to opt in 4 times. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Hitch said:

From the other thread....

 

 

He was -4 DRS in 2023. Compare that to Hanley's -14 in 2015. Manny was a -9 or worse from 2003 - 07. That's why I said "he wasn't that bad. We've seen worse." 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd go: Breakfast Burrito > Beaver Nuggets > Pulled Pork > Brisket

You may be able to get him to opt in 4 times. 

At some point he has to stay in shape…

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He was -4 DRS in 2023. Compare that to Hanley's -14 in 2015. Manny was a -9 or worse from 2003 - 07. That's why I said "he wasn't that bad. We've seen worse." 

Which isn't enough of a reason to play him out there. His bat is nowhere near good enough.

[dgalehouse]

I like the way the team is shaping up. I think it will be interesting to see how Aroldis Chapman does. He could become a key to the bullpen's success. He has 300 and something career saves. Ranks somewhere in the top twenty all time. A proven closer. He is 36 years old, but a physical specimen. As he has aged, he has been able to maintain his velocity more so than Jansen and Kimbrel. He obviously has some negative baggage, but I don't recall any instance of steroid use. Bears watching.

[moonslav59]

Until Anthony is called up and shows he can play FT, out OF set-up was probably going to look like ths, until Yoshida got consideration:
 

LF: Duran v R/ Ref v L

CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L

RF: Abreu v R/ Rafaela v L

If Yoshida plays LF vs some RHPs, he will bat over Rafaela and likely be better on O. Our LF defense will suffer, while Duran in CF over Rafaela is not a big loss.

Tha advantage might come from who is playing 3B- on D, especially, but also what sort of offense.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Which isn't enough of a reason to play him out there. His bat is nowhere near good enough.

He's not historically bad out there by DRS standards. 

The following players were WORSE than -4 DRS in LF last season: 

Benintendi

Profar

TEOSCAR who everyone wanted to put there

Arozarena

Austin Hays

MJ Melendez

Jack Suwinski

James Wood

Nick Gordan

Austin Martin

Yelich

Bryan Reynolds who everyone wanted to trade for in a recent offseason

Yordan Alvarez

Honestly, if the Sox traded for Bryan Reynolds to play everyday in LF, most people wouldn't bat an eye. However, he's horrible at defense (per above) and his OPS the last two seasons was 790. If you gave him fulltime reps, Masa could likely hit 790 when healthy and play bad defense. I think we overstate the negative value he brings to the team because of his lack of power, handedness and size of his contract. I think he's low key a decent player who was just injured all of last season. 

[Bellhorn04]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's not historically bad out there by DRS standards. 

The following players were WORSE than -4 DRS in LF last season: 

Benintendi

Profar

TEOSCAR who everyone wanted to put there

Arozarena

Austin Hays

MJ Melendez

Jack Suwinski

James Wood

Nick Gordan

Austin Martin

Yelich

Bryan Reynolds who everyone wanted to trade for in a recent offseason

Yordan Alvarez

Honestly, if the Sox traded for Bryan Reynolds to play everyday in LF, most people wouldn't bat an eye. However, he's horrible at defense (per above) and his OPS the last two seasons was 790. If you gave him fulltime reps, Masa could likely hit 790 when healthy and play bad defense. I think we overstate the negative value he brings to the team because of his lack of power, handedness and size of his contract. I think he's low key a decent player who was just injured all of last season. 

You omitted the terrible baserunning.