A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Cartaya was a BA Top 100 prospect as recently as 2023.  He will be traded, not released.  Also his defensive play is questionable.

I could understand trading for him, as the Sox only have two.  Per BTV, Cartaya might cost Nazzan Zanatello…

Is "questionable" better than known god-awful?

Is Pinto any good on D?

 

[moonslav59]

20 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

John Henry has done so much for Red Sox Nation. Now he is having problems and he needs our help. I am asking all of you TalkSox members and contributors to give $19.00 a month. That is really just pennies a day. Less than the cost of a beer and a hot dog at Fenway Park.  Doing this will help John Henry get back on his feet. And it will enable the Red Sox to compete with the wealthier franchises, as well as help with the much needed repairs to Mr. Henry's yacht. Please call or go online to donate today. We thank you. 

So fitting. 

[dgalehouse]

Spending what is needed to acquire/retain the quality players is important, but it is also important that the G.M. identify what is most needed and who are the guys who can best fill those spots. Dombrowski was very good at it. Bloom was not. The jury is still out on Breslow, but I like what I see so far. I think he gets it and is on the right track. That's why I am more optimistic than many on here.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Spending what is needed to acquire/retain the quality players is important, but it is also important that the G.M. identify what is most needed and who are the guys who can best fill those spots. Dombrowski was very good at it. Bloom was not. The jury is still out on Breslow, but I like what I see so far. I think he gets it and is on the right track. That's why I am more optimistic than many on here.

I'm on the plus side with Brez.

The one really botched move was Sale, but I still think there was a solid reason for making that trade.

His deadline moves backfired, except for Jansen, and the Gio injury made him look bad, but the Crochet, O'Neill, Fitts/Weissert, Slaten, Sandlin and Priester deals looks pretty good, but much is speculative on these deals.

[notin]

27 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Spending what is needed to acquire/retain the quality players is important, but it is also important that the G.M. identify what is most needed and who are the guys who can best fill those spots. Dombrowski was very good at it. Bloom was not. The jury is still out on Breslow, but I like what I see so far. I think he gets it and is on the right track. That's why I am more optimistic than many on here.

Dombrowski wasn’t the only CBO capable of identifying talent, but he is the last one who was allowed to spend, at least until 2019. The payroll went down every year under Bloom (except a bump in 2022) and reached its lowest point since 2014 under Breslow.

Dombrowski and Bloom could both spot talent.  But only DD was allowed to pay for it…

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Dombrowski wasn’t the only CBO capable of identifying talent, but he is the last one who was allowed to spend, at least until 2019. The payroll went down every year under Bloom (except a bump in 2022) and reached its lowest point since 2014 under Breslow.

Dombrowski and Bloom could both spot talent.  But only DD was allowed to pay for it…

It's hard to make it sound like  Bloom was equal to Dombro. His sample size is too small to know. He struck out with Story and Yoshida, so I'd say his major talent spots has a record of 0-2.

Dombro was 4-0-1 or 4-1, at worst 3-2 with his major additions (Sale, JD, Nate, Kimbrell & Price.)

Bloom did okay with lower level additions, but swung and missed on his higher level one year deals, like Richards, Kluber, Kike II and the Barnes extension. DD did okay on some mid-level guys like Pearce, but not very well on others.

[moonslav59]

I doubt HOU would do this, but they are desperate for an OF'er, and maybe they could stomach Yoshida in LF.

Yoshida ($18M x 3) plus $12.5M in '26 and $12.5M in '27 and Kelly or Cespedes/Jh Garcia

for

Pressley ($14M x 1) and Caratini ($6M x 1)

The Astros save $2M in '25 and pay $5.5M x 2 for Yoshida in '26 and '27.

We get a good defensive catcher for a season and a decent RP'er and save $9M over 3 years.

[moonslav59]

The Braves could use pitching. I know notin suggested a Story for Murphy deal and roll the dice with Mayer, but how about Giolito for Murphy and roll the dice with Crawford/Criswell/Fitts/Priester/Dobbins for the 5 slot and depth in the rotation? 

Murphy is owed $15M x 4 with a $15M club option with no buyout. He just turned 30. His contract ends at 33 or 34 w option. His tax hit is just over $12M per year, which fits the Sox budget, well.

I'm not sure who says "no." Maybe ATL wants more... like a Cespedes or some non 40 man guy.

[notin]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to make it sound like  Bloom was equal to Dombro. His sample size is too small to know. He struck out with Story and Yoshida, so I'd say his major talent spots has a record of 0-2.

Dombro was 4-0-1 or 4-1, at worst 3-2 with his major additions (Sale, JD, Nate, Kimbrell & Price.)

Bloom did okay with lower level additions, but swung and missed on his higher level one year deals, like Richards, Kluber, Kike II and the Barnes extension. DD did okay on some mid-level guys like Pearce, but not very well on others.

There’s a difference between misidentifying talent and signing players who get injured.  So Story was a failed signing by Bloom but Sale was a successful one for DD?  Seems counterintuitive.

DD did have more success stories, but he signed a lot more large deals.  And when forced to operate on a budget, he didn’t do so well.  Comparing the jobs each one did to each other is not the same at all.

Yes Bloom missed on those low impact deals like Kluber, etc.  How much did those handicap the team?  And why is the $40-50mill spent on those players somehow more debilitating to the Sox than the $320mill plus spent on Price/Sale/Eovadi for which the Sox received about $21 bWAR  total?

[notin]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Braves could use pitching. I know notin suggested a Story for Murphy deal and roll the dice with Mayer, but how about Giolito for Murphy and roll the dice with Crawford/Criswell/Fitts/Priester/Dobbins for the 5 slot and depth in the rotation? 

Murphy is owed $15M x 4 with a $15M club option with no buyout. He just turned 30. His contract ends at 33 or 34 w option. His tax hit is just over $12M per year, which fits the Sox budget, well.

I'm not sure who says "no." Maybe ATL wants more... like a Cespedes or some non 40 man guy.

Atlanta probably won’t turn down pitching, but until the injuries kick in, they’re loaded.  Sure Fried is out, but Ian Anderson is back.  Followed eventually by Strider.  Plus they have Spencer Schwellenbach and the guy who made the second biggest comeback in MLB last year - Reynaldo Lopez.  Oh and the biggest comeback, too.  They also have some top pitching prospects, like AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrop, both of whom are on the cusp. (I think AJSS saw some time last year.) Oh and some vet arms like Grant Holmes holding down the fort.  Also their AAA rotation has 25yo former MLB All Star Bryce Elder.  Any team with a 25yo former MLB All Star hiding out in AAA because he can’t crack the rotation might have some pretty good pitching depth.

But at SS, it appears to be Orlando Arcia or former Oakland A’s batless glove Nick Allen.  And that’s it…

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s a difference between misidentifying talent and signing players who get injured.  So Story was a failed signing by Bloom but Sale was a successful one for DD?  Seems counterintuitive.

DD did have more success stories, but he signed a lot more large deals.  And when forced to operate on a budget, he didn’t do so well.  Comparing the jobs each one did to each other is not the same at all.

Yes Bloom missed on those low impact deals like Kluber, etc.  How much did those handicap the team?  And why is the $40-50mill spent on those players somehow more debilitating to the Sox than the $320mill plus spent on Price/Sale/Eovadi for which the Sox received about $21 bWAR  total?

DD hit big on the Sale trade, but I failed to identify the failed extension. The Nate extension was so-so. The Price signing was an overall failure, but he did okay for the first couple years. Sale's last season w ATL was still under DD's deal, so that looks better, now, than it did, last winter. Overall, that $320M was not well spent, but did it outweigh all the good major deals and signings?

If you discount the Story failure due to injury, then discount Sale and Nate, too.

JD was a good signing. The Bogey extension was good. The Sale and Kimbrell trades worked very well. If you stretch to say DD was at 50%, that still beats the hell out of Bloom's major deals- granted the Bloom "major deals" were at lower costs than DD's.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Atlanta probably won’t turn down pitching, but until the injuries kick in, they’re loaded.  Sure Fried is out, but Ian Anderson is back.  Followed eventually by Strider.  Plus they have Spencer Schwellenbach and the guy who made the second biggest comeback in MLB last year - Reynaldo Lopez.  Oh and the biggest comeback, too.  They also have some top pitching prospects, like AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrop, both of whom are on the cusp. (I think AJSS saw some time last year.) Oh and some vet arms like Grant Holmes holding down the fort.  Also their AAA rotation has 25yo former MLB All Star Bryce Elder.  Any team with a 25yo former MLB All Star hiding out in AAA because he can’t crack the rotation might have some pretty good pitching depth.

But at SS, it appears to be Orlando Arcia or former Oakland A’s batless glove Nick Allen.  And that’s it…

They lost 59 starts from Fried & Morton, and need Sale to stay healthy, too.

[notin]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

They lost 59 starts from Fried & Morton, and need Sale to stay healthy, too.

True, but as I pointed out, they’re getting back Spencer Strider and Ian Anderson.  And they have an All Star pitching in AAA!! Not because of injury, either.  He just couldn’t crack the rotation last year.

If Atlanta lacks pitching depth, how are we able to have any sort of tradable surplus?

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

DD hit big on the Sale trade, but I failed to identify the failed extension. The Nate extension was so-so. The Price signing was an overall failure, but he did okay for the first couple years. Sale's last season w ATL was still under DD's deal, so that looks better, now, than it did, last winter. Overall, that $320M was not well spent, but did it outweigh all the good major deals and signings?

If you discount the Story failure due to injury, then discount Sale and Nate, too.

JD was a good signing. The Bogey extension was good. The Sale and Kimbrell trades worked very well. If you stretch to say DD was at 50%, that still beats the hell out of Bloom's major deals- granted the Bloom "major deals" were at lower costs than DD's.

1.  I already made the injury point about Sale and Story.  You were supposed to answer that, not ask the question again?

2. My point wasn’t that DD’s bad deals outweighed his good ones.  It was that his bad ones were far, far more prohibitive than those silly one year deals for Kluber, etc.  Bloom had misses, but DD had bigger misses.  And your post made them sound equal..,

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

True, but as I pointed out, they’re getting back Spencer Strider and Ian Anderson.  And they have an All Star pitching in AAA!! Not because of injury, either.  He just couldn’t crack the rotation last year.

If Atlanta lacks pitching depth, how are we able to have any sort of tradable surplus?

I like our rotation depth, without Giolito than our catching situation, that's how.

I was not aware of ATL's rotation depth, but I read they were looking for a SP'er.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

1.  I already made the injury point about Sale and Story.  You were supposed to answer that, not ask the question again?

2. My point wasn’t that DD’s bad deals outweighed his good ones.  It was that his bad ones were far, far more prohibitive than those silly one year deals for Kluber, etc.  Bloom had misses, but DD had bigger misses.  And your post made them sound equal..,

1. Point well-taken. Call those two signings a wash.

2. I get the point about Kluber on a 1 year deal, but go ahead and count Kluber+Richards+ Paxton as a $30M/3 signing. Now that is still less than Nat'es $17M x 4, but Nate did pretty well. The Price signing has no match with Bloom, and in some ways, it forced the Betts trade, as well as lessened the return on the Betts trade- a double whammy. The Kimbrell, JD, Pearce and Pom Pom deals might balance out the Price deal, which ended up costing us a lot, although not $210M/7. (Was it more like $150M/3?)

The thing working in DD's favor is the fact that so many of the top prospects' traded away did not meet expectations- some fell way short. Moncada, Margot, Dubon did okay, but the gains we made were astounding. The Price signing sucked. The Sale extension sucked, but would have been a little redeemed had Sale had the 2024 season with us. The Nate signing was so-so. JD and Bogey deals worked well. Overall, the signings were a negative, but the trades were a big plus.

I can twist and turn and wiggle and worm, but I can't make Bloom's moves even 50-50.

[Tedballgame]

I know this is a Red Sox board but I just have to vent a little. The Patriots are the DUMBEST franchise in sports right now. How could you win a meaningless game and lose the number ! draft pick. John Henry will be glad they will take the heat off of him for awhile.

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Tedballgame said:

I know this is a Red Sox board but I just have to vent a little. The Patriots are the DUMBEST franchise in sports right now. How could you win a meaningless game and lose the number ! draft pick. John Henry will be glad they will take the heat off of him for awhile.

 

That was bad.  I know.  I’m hoping they don’t dip below third.  Cleveland already lost, but the Browns, Giants and Titans will all try to be in on Cam Ward and Shedur Sanders.  I am hoping Travis Hunter can fall to NE.  
 

Hopefully one of them can get a win…

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

I know this is a Red Sox board but I just have to vent a little. The Patriots are the DUMBEST franchise in sports right now. How could you win a meaningless game and lose the number ! draft pick. John Henry will be glad they will take the heat off of him for awhile.

 

You do understand that players play to win!!!!

[moonslav59]

Just now, Larry Cook said:

You do understand that players play to win!!!!

Look how much finishing worst kept Sox fans bitching for years. Nobody likes hearing how much they suck, so yes, they play to win.

[moonslav59]

A look at the AL rotations (top 6) by Steamer projections;

14.5 BOS: 4.8 Crochet, 2.8 Houck, 2.5 Bello, 1.8 Crawford, 1.4 Buehler, 1.2 Giolito

13.6 NYY: 3.3 Fried, 3.1 Cole, 2.8 Rodon, 1.8 Gil, 1.8 Schmidt, 0.8 Stroman

14.0 SEA: 3.5 Gilbert, 3.3 Kirby, 2.8 Castillo, 1.9 Miller, 1.7 Woo, 0.8 Munoz

13.9 TEX: 5.2 deGrom, 2.9 Eovaldi, 1.9 Rocker, 1.8 J Gray, 1.4 Mahle, 0.7 Leiter/Bradford

 

13.0 MIN: 3.6 Lopez, 3.2 Ryan, 2.5 Ober, 1.5 Festa, 1.4 Paddack, 1.1 Matthews

12.9 KCR: 3.6 Ragans, 2.8 Lugo, 2.3 Wacha, 1.4 Marsh, 1.4 Wright, 1.4 Bubic

12.5 TBR: 3.2 McClanahan, 2.4 Bradley, 2.2 Pepiot, 2.0 Rasmussen, 1.5 Baz, 1.2 Litell

11.9 HOU: 3.7 Valdez, 3.2 Brown, 1.7 Blanco, 1.2 Garcia & Arrighetti, 0.9 McCullers

11.5 DET: 5.0 Skubal, 2.2 Olson, 2.0 Cobb, 1.6 Mize, 0.5 Montero, 0.2 Jobe

10.1 TOR: 2.9 Gausman, 2.1 Bassitt, 1.9 Berrios, 1.6 Francis, 1.3 Y Rod, 0.3 Bloss

9.6 LAA: 3.1 Kikuchi, 2.1 Soriano, 1.7 Detmers, 1.1 T Anderson, 0.9 K Hendricks, 0.7 Koch.

8.9 BAL: 2.6 Eflin, 2.5 Rodriguez, 1.4 Morton, 1.1 Kremer, 0.8 Povich, 0.5 T Rogers

7.9 CLE: 2.5 Bibee, 1.6 G Williams, 1.5 Bieber, 0.8 Cantillo, 0.7 Lively, 0.6 L Ortiz

7.6 OAK: 2.2 Springs, 2.0 Severino, 1.4 Sears, 1.0 Spence, 0.6 Ginn, 0.4 Estes

5.4 CWS: 1.3 Martin, 1.0 Burke & Cannon, 0.9 Schults & Thorpe, 0.3 B Wilson

Notes:

Only BOS & TBR have a 6th starter with a value as high as 1.2 (Gio & Litell.)

Best 2 SP: 8.1 TEX (counting on deGrom,) 7.6 BOS, 7.2 DET, 6.9 HOU, 6.8 SEA & MIN

Best 3 SP: 10.0 TEX, 9.6 SEA, 9.3 MIN, 9.2 DET, 9.1 BOS, 8.7 KCR, 8.6 HOU

 

Maybe we won't be as bad as some of think we will be.

[Larry Cook]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

A look at the AL rotations (top 6) by Steamer projections;

14.5 BOS: 4.8 Crochet, 2.8 Houck, 2.5 Bello, 1.8 Crawford, 1.4 Buehler, 1.2 Giolito

13.6 NYY: 3.3 Fried, 3.1 Cole, 2.8 Rodon, 1.8 Gil, 1.8 Schmidt, 0.8 Stroman

14.0 SEA: 3.5 Gilbert, 3.3 Kirby, 2.8 Castillo, 1.9 Miller, 1.7 Woo, 0.8 Munoz

13.9 TEX: 5.2 deGrom, 2.9 Eovaldi, 1.9 Rocker, 1.8 J Gray, 1.4 Mahle, 0.7 Leiter/Bradford

 

13.0 MIN: 3.6 Lopez, 3.2 Ryan, 2.5 Ober, 1.5 Festa, 1.4 Paddack, 1.1 Matthews

12.9 KCR: 3.6 Ragans, 2.8 Lugo, 2.3 Wacha, 1.4 Marsh, 1.4 Wright, 1.4 Bubic

12.5 TBR: 3.2 McClanahan, 2.4 Bradley, 2.2 Pepiot, 2.0 Rasmussen, 1.5 Baz, 1.2 Litell

11.9 HOU: 3.7 Valdez, 3.2 Brown, 1.7 Blanco, 1.2 Garcia & Arrighetti, 0.9 McCullers

11.5 DET: 5.0 Skubal, 2.2 Olson, 2.0 Cobb, 1.6 Mize, 0.5 Montero, 0.2 Jobe

10.1 TOR: 2.9 Gausman, 2.1 Bassitt, 1.9 Berrios, 1.6 Francis, 1.3 Y Rod, 0.3 Bloss

9.6 LAA: 3.1 Kikuchi, 2.1 Soriano, 1.7 Detmers, 1.1 T Anderson, 0.9 K Hendricks, 0.7 Koch.

8.9 BAL: 2.6 Eflin, 2.5 Rodriguez, 1.4 Morton, 1.1 Kremer, 0.8 Povich, 0.5 T Rogers

7.9 CLE: 2.5 Bibee, 1.6 G Williams, 1.5 Bieber, 0.8 Cantillo, 0.7 Lively, 0.6 L Ortiz

7.6 OAK: 2.2 Springs, 2.0 Severino, 1.4 Sears, 1.0 Spence, 0.6 Ginn, 0.4 Estes

5.4 CWS: 1.3 Martin, 1.0 Burke & Cannon, 0.9 Schults & Thorpe, 0.3 B Wilson

Notes:

Only BOS & TBR have a 6th starter with a value as high as 1.2 (Gio & Litell.)

Best 2 SP: 8.1 TEX (counting on deGrom,) 7.6 BOS, 7.2 DET, 6.9 HOU, 6.8 SEA & MIN

Best 3 SP: 10.0 TEX, 9.6 SEA, 9.3 MIN, 9.2 DET, 9.1 BOS, 8.7 KCR, 8.6 HOU

 

Maybe we won't be as bad as some of think we will be.

I know some people are down on ownership for being cheap, but bres-slow has upgraded the starting rotation.  
we have a ton of young talented position players. 
If the rotation holds, then the bullpen does not get burned out as quickly. 
we are in decent position for a playoff spot now! Health, as always, is a wild card 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I know some people are down on ownership for being cheap, but bres-slow has upgraded the starting rotation.  
we have a ton of young talented position players. 
If the rotation holds, then the bullpen does not get burned out as quickly. 
we are in decent position for a playoff spot now! Health, as always, is a wild card 

When the pen looks so sketchy, why not do something major about it?

RP'ers don't cost $200M/7. They should be JH's friends.

Go get one Brez!

[moonslav59]

Reading the MBTR chat and they talked about PHI trading Bohm, if they could get someone to take Castellanos (owed $20M x 2) or T Walker (owed $18M x 2.)

Can't think of anything, and DD does not want Yoshida, unless we took both of them.

I should just give up looking.

The chat also had the host saying a Devers trade would be his choice as a shocker, so ...

Devers & Yoshida

for

Bohm & Castellanos (They may insist we take Walker, too.)

[Tedballgame]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

You do understand that players play to win!!!!

They haven't had any trouble not winning 13 other times. Ownership could have made sure they lost. Buffalo tanked the game worse than the Patriots. Frustrating for fans.

[notin]

Yoshida’s contract isn’t a big deal.

First of all, he is a pretty good hitter.

Second, unlike most players paid similarly, Yoshida has options left and can be demoted to Worcester.  
 

If he can’t be traded, DH him or D-mote him…

[Tedballgame]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

You do understand that players play to win!!!!

Buffalo didn't play to win. Its possible to lose a game on purpose.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Tedballgame said:

They haven't had any trouble not winning 13 other times. Ownership could have made sure they lost. Buffalo tanked the game worse than the Patriots. Frustrating for fans.

I get they stood to gain nothing from playing their starters, but the Bills didn’t need to tank.  They did have 70,000 paying fans in attendance who might not have felt their $200 tickets were so meaningless…

[jdc69]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When the pen looks so sketchy, why not do something major about it?

RP'ers don't cost $200M/7. They should be JH's friends.

Go get one Brez!

Agreed. If the offense is good it stands to reason that you need a good bullpen to keep your lead. The BP lost some key games after the all star break that were momentum breaking. Need a closer.

[Bellhorn04]

8 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

Buffalo didn't play to win. Its possible to lose a game on purpose.

They need a lottery system that prevents this kind of thing, because you really can't expect all the teams to be playing to win games that mean nothing like this one.