A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That may have had something to do with the Big Guy.

Devers in August/September: 42 games, .205 batting average, 4 HRs (none in Sept), 14 RBI (3 in Sept).

It underscores how important it is to get quality protection for him in the batting order -- even just someone else streaky enough to carry a club for a spell so that Raffy won't further hurt himself swinging from the heels at every pitch. 

Yeah, sure seems like he was playing hurt, and they decided the proper move was to let him keep playing hurt!

 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, sure seems like he was playing hurt, and they decided the proper move was to let him keep playing hurt!

 

That danged crack medical staff.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True, August was more like mediocre - OPS+ of 98.  Seems like the wheels started falling off about mid-August.

The Red Sox posted a wRC+ of 83 after August 15 last year.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox posted a wRC+ of 83 after August 15 last year.

OPS After 8/15

Rafaela 523

Duran 780

Abreu 639

Casas 773

Story 790

Devers 568

Wong 667

Grissom 787

Hamilton 714

Refsnyder 749

Gonzalez 595

Masa 753

The team was definitely in a funk. I'm not so sure this has a carryover into the new year.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Are you expecting him to just throw his whole plan out there for the public and other teams to see. What purpose would that serve? 

No.

[moonslav59]

On 1/1/2025 at 9:09 AM, Randy Red Sox said:

i actually like our rotation right now.  Crochet is said to be a stud and I think Bello will take another step this year. I am hoping Buehler is finally healthy. He is only 30 and with his TJ's doesn't have a lot of mileage on his wing. I like his upside and it is only a 1 yr deal. Houck should fit as a good #3 and Gio is said to be ready for ST. Crawford gives solid depth both as a starter or in the pen.

Question is going to be the BP which has some good arms but lots of questions too. If everything goes right it could be solid or of course it could be our undoing. The Orioles and Blue Jays have done very little so far this offseason and Tampa not much either. Right now I think the Sox are the 2nd best team in the division.

I do think we've improved, and the rotation most of all, assuming normal health. I'm a big fan of having the strongest rotation and depth possible.  We do not have to improve by 10-15 games to make the playoffs, but when we made the Crochet trade for two years of his services, I figure the "here and now" finally arrives. The one year deal to Beuhler reinforced that feeling, somewhat, although I had hoped for a longer term and more durable signing, but then cricketts.

One could look at the team's needs and say, "Wow! It's not such a bad thing to see you only needs are a back-up catcher (okay, maybe a #1 C) and improved corner IF defense and a solid pen arm or two." In this sense, I can see getting excited, but I also see so many question marks and a need for so many to all go right, that it looks to "dreamy" to me.

I mentioned on another post how we seem to have too many players with 1-2 major flaws in their game: only Duran looks like a plus batter and fielder. He can also run very well. His splits are not perfect, and one could call his splits vs LHPs a weak area, but he's the closest and only guy we have with no major flaws. He's only done it for 1.5 years, so maybe that could raise a question.

Devers and Casas: very good to great bats and horrific defense.

Abreu and DHam cant hit lefties,. Ref can't hit righties.

Story can't stay healthy and needs to reprove he can hit.

Rafaela has a lot to prove with his bat, but is a GG-type CF'er and a plus on D at 2B.

Yoshida can't play D and shows little power for a DH. Wong sucks on D but hits well for a catcher.

On the surface, these guys look okay to good, or even very good, but we lack in everyday, all-around good players.

I've spoken about how our pen depth looks fine, but more in quantity of promise than proven quality arms.

We still have about $30M under the a tax line we were told wasn't an issue, this year, so what's stopping us from upgrading some of these flawed areas?

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

This is a team that played .420 ball after the ASB last year, folks.  

The offseason rejuvenates our optimism because we're fans.

Something like the golf offseason makes me forget my crappier shots and think I'm going to play better next year somehow.

Our later season play was awful and concerning, but I'm not so sure we should think that team was more of who we are than how we played before that. It does raise questions, as our Sept OPS in '23 was really bad, too.

Maybe Cora should think about giving our players planned rest days.

LOL

[drewski6]

I usually blame deadline inaction and overall complacency for the limping to the finish line, but I also know it cant be just that.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I usually blame deadline inaction and overall complacency for the limping to the finish line, but I also know it cant be just that.

I expected better at the '24 deadline, but garcia and Sims were not bad additions: they just turned to crapola, after we got them. Paxton was a deep reach with little promise of working out. D Jansen was a great get.

D Smith was before the deadline, and he kept us in the race, after Cooper sucked.

[notin]

26 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I usually blame deadline inaction and overall complacency for the limping to the finish line, but I also know it cant be just that.

Part of the reason they limped to the finish line was many people were physically limping…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We still have about $30M under the a tax line we were told wasn't an issue, this year, so what's stopping us from upgrading some of these flawed areas?

Extensions for Crochet, Anthony and Campbell. If they extend Anthony or Campbell prior to the season, they won't get the PPI if either wins the ROY. 

[moonslav59]

I ca seen extending Crochet as soon as can be, assuming at a realistic number. I'd wait a bit on Anthony and Campbell, unless they are willing to sign a decent deal that adds a year or more of control time.

[harmony]

On 10/11/2024 at 6:01 PM, Duran Is The Man said:

this settles it then. the Mariners don't need to sign any bats the season nor do the Sox need to sign any arms this offseason. why would teams that consistently miss the playoffs want to improve. that's crazy talk.

The Red Sox have addressed many pitching needs but have neglected their needs for position players.

With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in projected pitching WAR but 14th in projected position player WAR, ahead of only the White Sox:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox have addressed many pitching needs but have neglected their needs for position players.

With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in projected pitching WAR but 14th in projected position player WAR, ahead of only the White Sox:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

This was brought up yesterday and while many of us (myself included) feel these to be head-scratchingly light (Duran at 2.0 WAR coming off a season of 8.7), the gist of the sentiment (we focused so much on pitching that its leap frogged our now very concerning hitting) - Im with

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox have addressed many pitching needs but have neglected their needs for position players.

With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in projected pitching WAR but 14th in projected position player WAR, ahead of only the White Sox:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

Wow, how embarrassing.  Great job Sox FO!

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox have addressed many pitching needs but have neglected their needs for position players.

With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in projected pitching WAR but 14th in projected position player WAR, ahead of only the White Sox:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

Oh no, anyway... 

[notin]

39 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox have addressed many pitching needs but have neglected their needs for position players.

With current rosters, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox second in the American League in projected pitching WAR but 14th in projected position player WAR, ahead of only the White Sox:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

This will mean more to me when MLB decides to abandon actually playing games and instead just use Steamer projections in lieu of the regular season.

Also, Steamer couldn’t give me accurate projections for LAST year.  Why should I put any faith in them again?  I also have my theories about the origin story for their name…

[Bellhorn04]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the pre-season projected win totals (.500 ish) for the Sox the past 3 years turned out to be fairly accurate.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the pre-season projected win totals (.500 ish) for the Sox the past 3 years turned out to be fairly accurate.

The win total and a conversation about "the FO didn't do enough because they are 14th in projected fWAR for batters" are two completely different things. 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the pre-season projected win totals (.500 ish) for the Sox the past 3 years turned out to be fairly accurate.

Predicted by whom? 
 

Also, what does .500-ish mean?  

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Predicted by whom? 
 

Also, what does .500-ish mean?  

I asked my magic 8 ball if they'd be .500ish this year and it said "you may rely on it."

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Predicted by whom? 
 

Also, what does .500-ish mean?  

500-ish is something like 78-84 wins, like the Red Sox of the 2022-2024 seasons.  Kind of obvious.  Why do you ask questions like that?   

[mvp 78]

If they were to make a move simply for the projections, it would be to sign Bregman's 4.2 fWAR and move Devers to DH/1B. Grandal for C would be a decent timeshare option too. 

[moonslav59]

2nd in pitching is encouraging and maybe not far from the mark.

14th in batting seems a little low, but it's hard to project younger players with 1-2 seasons of doing well under their belts. It's nearly impossible to predict how good the 3 AAA Amigos will do, or even how much they will play in MLB's 2025 season. Another major factor, as always, is injuries.

Devers played hurt for part of 2024 and missed time, at the end.

Casas missed almost 100 games. He could be our 2nd to 3rd best hitter.

Story has 163 games played in 3 seasons. When he did play, he hit at an 89 OPS+, but he could end up being a RHB force at the plate and on D in 2025. Hard to know. Just staying healthy will be a plus- maybe a plus-plus.

Yoshida may still have his best season in him, as he missed much of 2024, too.

Losing O'Neill looks like a gut punch on the surface, but better health, alone, can and should make up for his loss. (BTW, he missed serious time, too, and he also went through some rough patches, including with men on base.)

Here is the other part: so many of our batters are young or very young. Not all follow a bell curve, but one usually expects general improvement as they near or enter prime.

I may be a homer, but I like how a DHam- Grissom/Romy platoon looks at 2B much more than half the innings played at 2B in 2024 by EValdez, Westbrook, Reyes, Gasper and Wong. The three I mentioned are 23-27 years old.

While it's hard to project how well 23 year old Rafaela and 25 year old Abreu will do in their second full season at the MLB level, I can't see why we should expect regression over progression. If we end up using them in some sort of platoon, I think we can be optimistic about a very nice output.

Duran and Devers just entered prime. In theory, they can and should get better.

Wong is now in prime, too, as is Yoshida & Story. Nobody is past-prime. While I've lost hope on Wong's defense, many catchers don't reach their prime on D, until age 29 or later. I'm hopeful, he realizes he needs help and is working on that area, this winter. The defense at corner IF remains horrific, and will likely not improve, unless some pieces are shuffled. Our OF defense looks spectacular, especially if Rafaela plays more and stops making dumb errors. A middle IF defense by Story and DHam is a plus, something we have not seen in many years.

I see it like this in the AL: Boston should finish:

Top 5 in pitching and baserunning

Middle 5 in batting

Bottom 5 in defense

Total it up and maybe we end up 4th to 7th best.

 

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

500-ish is something like 78-84 wins, like the Red Sox of the 2022-2024 seasons.  Kind of obvious.  Why do you ask questions like that?   

Because everyone in MLB wins 40-60% of their games, so .500 predictions mean more with tighter ranges of +/-.  You’re getting handed a 20% range to begin with, and a prediction of .500 with that range cuts into 20% of it.

 

Also you didn’t say who…

[moonslav59]

According to soxprospects.com, these are the only Sox players with zero options remaining: Story, Refsnyder, Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson. On this list, only Wilson may end up not deserving a 26 man roster slot. Refsnyder could get squeezed, if we add a RHB, especially someone like Grichuk. It gives Brez and Cora a lot of flexibility, and we may see a lot of ups and downs between BOS & WOO.

The fact that none of our top 3 prospects, all deemed "ML ready" or "near ML ready" need to be on the 40 man roster creates an interesting scenario, as the season unfolds. It is entirely possible none are on the opening day 40, and they should not be, unless they are on the opening day 26. None should be added, unless the plan is to play them nearly FT at the ML level. The extra year of service timing could also be a major factor in when they are added, if at all. We know JH is a miser, these days, and that extra year of "cheaper" cost may mean more to him than we can imagine.

To me, if we end up DFA'ing Wilson, I won't be surprised. Trading Refsnyder should only happen, if we solve our issues vs LHPs. Ref is a top 20 batter vs LHPs in all of MLB, over the past 2-3 seasons. His inability to play a position well makes it tough, since we also have Yoshida in the same situation. Together, they make a nice DH platoon, but keeping 2 DH only players on a 26 man roster seems very odd and wrong. They can both play LF, in a pinch, but taking up 2 out of 13 slots on the 26, when 2 catchers are also needed, really constricts Cora's choices. 2 of the 4 bench slots are filled by a catcher and a DH. It helps to have super utility guys like Rafaela (CF, 2B and  RF, with SS in emergency situations) and DHam (2B, 3B and maybe SS) or Romy (all positions, except C.) To me, Grissom is limited to 2B and 3B, and he has yet to prove he can defend either one, even at an average skill level.

I'm going to assume two minor moves are made before opening day:

Abreu & Refsnyder are traded for a Catcher and/or RP'er, and we sign Grichuk and a RP'er or Catcher- see Abreu/Ref trade(s.) That leaves this 26 man roster on opening day:

C: Wong & _____ (Narvaez in AAA- Zavala as non 40 man depth)

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: D-Ham- Grissom platoon  (Sogard AAA & Campbell as non 40 depth)

SS: Story, Romy (Sogard AAA & Mayer as non 40 depth)

3B: Devers (Romy, Grissom) Campbell & Eaton as non 40 depth

LF: Grichuk (Duran) Sogard AAA

CF: Duran, Rafaela (Anthony) Campbell as non 40 depth

RF: Anthony (Rafaela) Sogard AAA (Campbell as non 40)

DH; Yoshida (Casas/Devers) Jh Garcia as AA depth and Hickey & Jordan as non 40 depth

Rotation: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito (AAA: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and Fulmer, Drohan, Gambrell as non 40 depth)

Pen: Chapman/Hendriks, ______, Slaten, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero>Whitlock (when healthy) AAA: Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Bernardino, Shugart and non 40 depth ICampbell, Mata, W Mills, A Adams, J Adames, H Harris, N Davis and others.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I see it like this in the AL: Boston should finish:

Top 5 in pitching and baserunning

Middle 5 in batting

Bottom 5 in defense

Total it up and maybe we end up 4th to 7th best.

 

The thing that the poison ivy-leaguers still haven't addressed: if the defense is Bottom 5, the pitching most likely can't be Top 5.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

According to soxprospects.com, these are the only Sox players with zero options remaining: Story, Refsnyder, Chapman, Hendriks and Wilson. On this list, only Wilson may end up not deserving a 26 man roster slot.

In order for Wilson to be squeezed out, they'd need to find a LHP that can clearly beat him out (aside from Chapman). SoxProspects projects him as starting on the 60 man with Sandoval. After that, they'd use his option to work his way back in AAA rather than MLB IMO. Penrod? Doubtful. Bernardino has one more year so he may start the year in AAA as well, but he's the only guy that might beat out Wilson at some point.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The thing that the poison ivy-leaguers still haven't addressed: if the defense is Bottom 5, the pitching most likely can't be Top 5.

Need flyball strikeout pitchers since the OF is good.