A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True, but the issue is that the Sox are #3 in revenue and franchise value.  Prior to the last couple of years they spent in proportion to their wealth, and nobody really complained too loudly.

But my fear in Henry will sell the team to someone like Cal Pohlad IV (real person?), whose family mantra is “owning a baseball team is a status symbol, not a business” and who will spend less on the team than he leaves in tips in fancy dining establishments.

 

I figure the list of people who can afford a baseball team while also being frivolous enough with their money to spend how fans want is pretty small.  Heck, just being able to afford a team is a small list.  And while Henry has gone into financial dormancy on us, it’s much easier to find someone even worse.  If the Sox can handle operating in the top third-ish of all spenders and have to use their limited resources more wisely, I’d prefer that than handing the reins over to the next Jeff Loria, was the last guy Henry sold a team to.  I don’t want the Sox to be the next Marlins…

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, notin said:

A dangerous bat for at least 60 games…

Didn’t you say the same thing about Chris frail???  Maybe he survives better as a DH. 

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Didn’t you say the same thing about Chris frail???  Maybe he survives better as a DH. 

I never called Sale a dangerous hitter…

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Didn’t you say the same thing about Chris frail???  Maybe he survives better as a DH. 

To many years, and to much money left on his contract even if there was any interest at all in Trout, which I don’t believe there is.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

But my fear in Henry will sell the team to someone like Cal Pohlad IV (real person?), whose family mantra is “owning a baseball team is a status symbol, not a business” and who will spend less on the team than he leaves in tips in fancy dining establishments.

 

I figure the list of people who can afford a baseball team while also being frivolous enough with their money to spend how fans want is pretty small.  Heck, just being able to afford a team is a small list.  And while Henry has gone into financial dormancy on us, it’s much easier to find someone even worse.  If the Sox can handle operating in the top third-ish of all spenders and have to use their limited resources more wisely, I’d prefer that than handing the reins over to the next Jeff Loria, was the last guy Henry sold a team to.  I don’t want the Sox to be the next Marlins…

How many current owners would we rather have than JH?

(I have no idea.)

I do know many are way cheaper than JH and or are not very good at hiring good baseball men to run their team.

Everybody wants the LAD owner who spends and spends (and has a mega revenue line.) Here is what the Dodger paid for pitchers, this year:

0 GS (out for playoffs- pitching) Ohtani $70M ($46M x ??? Lux) 

22 GS (out for playoffs) Glasnow $32.5M ($27.3M x 5 Lux)

0 GS (out for playoffs)  Yamamoto $18.3M ($27.1M x 12 Lux)

16 GS (out for playoffs) Bueler $8M x 1 (same)

7 GS (out for playoffs) Kershaw $5M x 1 (same) w $5M player option

(Gavin Stone and Dustin May- out for playoffs)

Man, we thought we had injuries.

 

[moonslav59]

Our OF and possible depth/prospects:

LF: Duran, Abreu, Campbell, Refsnyder (Jh Garcia)

CF: Duran, Rafaela, Anthony,  Campbell, Abreu (Bleis)

RF: Abreu, Anthony, Campbell (Montgomery)

 

Our Middle Infield and possible depth/prospects:

SS: Story, Mayer, Romy, DHam, Meidroth, Campbell (Romero, Arias, Riemer)

2B: Story, Campbell, Mayer, Grissom/DHam, Meidroth (Romero, Arias, Cespedes)

 

Surely, we can part with one player from each group.

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How many current owners would we rather have than JH?

(I have no idea.)

I do know many are way cheaper than JH and or are not very good at hiring good baseball men to run their team.

Everybody wants the LAD owner who spends and spends (and has a mega revenue line.) Here is what the Dodger paid for pitchers, this year:

0 GS (out for playoffs- pitching) Ohtani $70M ($46M x ??? Lux) 

22 GS (out for playoffs) Glasnow $32.5M ($27.3M x 5 Lux)

0 GS (out for playoffs)  Yamamoto $18.3M ($27.1M x 12 Lux)

16 GS (out for playoffs) Bueler $8M x 1 (same)

7 GS (out for playoffs) Kershaw $5M x 1 (same) w $5M player option

(Gavin Stone and Dustin May- out for playoffs)

Man, we thought we had injuries.

 

If someone can afford what it will take to buy the Red Sox I’m sure they can afford to put money back into the club, and most likely will. I’m not looking for someone to go nuts like to Dodgers do, so no you are wrong again that everybody wants the LAD owner. You probably send JH a Xmas card every year, and probably have a picture of him hanging up somewhere too, and that’s alright.

[harmony]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd trade the three guys mentioned for Finnegan, and Abreu and DHam to TBR for Fairbanks and Diaz, then trade Casas to SEA for Bryce Miller. Sign Tanner Scott, Danny Jansen and Nick Martinez and call it a day.

Four years of Triston Casas is closer in value to six years of Seattle righthander Emerson Hancock than to five vears of Bryce Miller.

Neither trade is likely to happen.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, harmony said:

Four years of Triston Casas is closer in value to six years of Seattle righthander Emerson Hancock than to five vears of Bryce Miller.

Neither trade is likely to happen.

No, they won't.

A three way deal has a better chance.

The Astros need a 1Bman, but I doubt they part with a top, young SP'er to get Casas.

[Larry Cook]

You only unload our young quality position players if we get young cost controlled pitching. 
Seattle and Pittsburgh have young cost controlled pitchers  that can help us 

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, notin said:

Those lists are from 2022/2023.  In 2023, both New York teams and San Diego missed the postseason…

Right, but if we use 2022-2024, those 5 teams have a total of 12 playoff appearances, so 12 out of 15 = 80%.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, but if we use 2022-2024, those 5 teams have a total of 12 playoff appearances, so 12 out of 15 = 80%.

It is interesting to note that the year the SDP wnet below the tax line, they made the playoffs. (2023 was over: they missed/ 2024 under: they made it.) Using them as an example seems a bit out of context.

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is interesting to note that the year the SDP wnet below the tax line, they made the playoffs. (2023 was over: they missed/ 2024 under: they made it.) Using them as an example seems a bit out of context.

SDP just got better this year, and I don’t think it had anything to do with the payroll. Did payroll have more to do with the Red Sox hanging around the 500 mark this year, or was it the Sale-Gio-Grissom deal not working out plus adding the injuries of Story, Casas, and Whitlock?

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is interesting to note that the year the SDP wnet below the tax line, they made the playoffs. (2023 was over: they missed/ 2024 under: they made it.) Using them as an example seems a bit out of context.

But the Padres would not be where they are without their huge financial investments in Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts.  And you could also throw in Soto - it was the trade of Soto that resulted in acquiring both King and Cease.  

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But the Padres would not be where they are without their huge financial investments in Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts.  And you could also throw in Soto - it was the trade of Soto that resulted in acquiring both King and Cease.  

No doubt. Those recent deals really closed the deal- something we avoided, last winter and deadline.

[notin]

15 hours ago, Old Red said:

If someone can afford what it will take to buy the Red Sox I’m sure they can afford to put money back into the club, and most likely will. 

The main flaw in that logic is John Henry can clearly afford the Red Sox (you know, since he already bought them) and he isn’t subbing enough money into this club.

 

A new owner is going to pay substantially more than Henry did.  That cuts into what he can/will spend right off the bat…

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, but if we use 2022-2024, those 5 teams have a total of 12 playoff appearances, so 12 out of 15 = 80%.

But now you’re kind of muddying the premise, which was about teams going over the tax limit.  Were they all over in 2024?  San Diego especially, since they did move one rather expensive deal in Juan Soto…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

But now you’re kind of muddying the premise, which was about teams going over the tax limit.  Were they all over in 2024?  San Diego especially, since they did move one rather expensive deal in Juan Soto…

... a move that might win them a World Series -- if they get there, and King and Cease keep them in some games.

I'm starting to wonder about Cease, though, who's been getting smacked around by LA... which has me wondering about how much it will cost Boston to land Crochet, and the wisdom of relying on guys who pitched for the White Sox...

[notin]

15 hours ago, harmony said:

Four years of Triston Casas is closer in value to six years of Seattle righthander Emerson Hancock than to five vears of Bryce Miller.

Neither trade is likely to happen.

I don’t see Seattle trading a pitcher to Boston.  Baltimore is a much, much better partner for them…

[notin]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... a move that might win them a World Series -- if they get there, and King and Cease keep them in some games.

I'm starting to wonder about Cease, though, who's been getting smacked around by LA... which has me wondering about how much it will cost Boston to land Crochet, and the wisdom of relying on guys who pitched for the White Sox...

Yeah that Sale guy really dragged us down…

[Bellhorn04]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

But now you’re kind of muddying the premise, which was about teams going over the tax limit.  Were they all over in 2024?  San Diego especially, since they did move one rather expensive deal in Juan Soto…

OK.  I was just talking about the general premise of big spending.  Big spending comes in different forms.  The total contracts for Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts are enormous.   

[notin]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK.  I was just talking about the general premise of big spending.  Big spending comes in different forms.  The total contracts for Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts are enormous.   

Big spending is a double-edged sword.

You can do it to win quickly, but the lengths on contracts these days can be detrimental.

The Padres paid about $54mill this year to Machado, Bogaerts and Tatis and received 7 bWAR for it.  In 2033, the Padres will be paying these same three roughly $100mill.  Think they get 14 bWAR from them? Will they be able to bring anyone in to pick up the slack?

[dgalehouse]

The Mets are the latest example of how quickly a team can turn around when they have an owner who is willing to do what it takes. 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

The Mets are the latest example of how quickly a team can turn around when they have an owner who is willing to do what it takes. 

I actually like Cohen.  He's not only willing to spend big,, but he obviously loves the game and has some smarts about it.  He did a good job bringing in Stearns and Mendoza.

[Duran Is The Man]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I actually like Cohen.  He's not only willing to spend big,, but he obviously loves the game and has some smarts about it.  He did a good job bringing in Stearns and Mendoza.

and he doesn't try to be "the smartest guy in the room" by trying to win on the cheap.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, notin said:

The main flaw in that logic is John Henry can clearly afford the Red Sox (you know, since he already bought them) and he isn’t subbing enough money into this club.

 

A new owner is going to pay substantially more than Henry did.  That cuts into what he can/will spend right off the bat…

That’s not a flaw at all. JH has been in town 20 years now, and has a lot more toys to play with than when he bought the Sox. What did JH do the first 15 years, or so?  A new owner having to shell out a lot more money that JH did is pretty evident, but like I said if he has that much money in the first place most likely he will have plenty of money left over to spend on the ball club.

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

The Mets are the latest example of how quickly a team can turn around when they have an owner who is willing to do what it takes. 

But didn’t the Mets shed a ton of payroll last year at the trade deadline and follow up with an off-season of signing cheaper mid-tier players (Manaea, Quintana, etc) to short term contracts while not extending Pete Alonso?

[dgalehouse]

It will be interesting to see what the Orioles do this off season. They have a new owner who has expressed a willingness to spend more than Angelos did.  They are only a couple of pieces away  from being a championship caliber team. On the other hand, Baltimore is not a real good market. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

It will be interesting to see what the Orioles do this off season. They have a new owner who has expressed a willingness to spend more than Angelos did.  They are only a couple of pieces away  from being a championship caliber team. On the other hand, Baltimore is not a real good market. 

Baltimore is in a very unique position where there young players and their farm are so stacked, they might not even need to spend, beyond some arbitration costs.   But the opportunity is absolutely there for them.  And the market is weak as you say.  Although Camden is at least a great place to take in a game…

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Baltimore is in a very unique position where there young players and their farm are so stacked, they might not even need to spend, beyond some arbitration costs.   But the opportunity is absolutely there for them.  And the market is weak as you say.  Although Camden is at least a great place to take in a game…

We have the pieces to beat anything Baltimore offers Seattle, if the correct pitcher is coming to us.