Red Sox hitting approach - what is going on?

[Bellhorn04]

We've had a lot of problem areas rear their heads for various stretches of time this year - defense, starting pitching, bullpen...and now the offense.  (So just about everything, huh?)  

It's been shocking to watch the Red Sox offense devolve into game after game of whiff-fests.  The Sox are currently third in baseball in strikeouts, and you have the feeling that if the season was 200 games long, we'd be the betting favorite to end up on top.

I'm sure a lot of people are wondering how Peter Fatse still has his job or if he will still have it in 2025.

Personally, the development that really floored me was this one:

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/boston-red-sox-hire-former-new-york-yankees-hitting-coach-dillon-lawson-to-help-organization

I was shocked that the Red Sox would hire Lawson, after he was fired by the Yankees mid-season in 2023.  The biggest knock against the Yankees offense when Lawson was fired was that it was a bunch of guys swinging for the fences, with a large chunk of their scoring coming on the home run ball, a ton of K's, and lousy situational hitting.

This is the guy we think has a good hitting approach? The guy whose motto is "hit strikes hard"?

Of course I have no idea if Lawson has anything specific to do with our Red Sox rising storm of whiffs.  But the very fact the organization thought he had a good hitting approach really makes me wonder what is going on philosophy-wise.   

[moonslav59]

K's never bothered me, if the guys are hitting and or getting on base and scoring runs.

We've fallen off a cliff. I'm not sure what the issue is.

[Bellhorn04]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

K's never bothered me, if the guys are hitting and or getting on base and scoring runs.

We've fallen off a cliff. I'm not sure what the issue is.

We've talked about players who can be very productive even though they strike out a lot.  A prime example being old friend Kyle Schwarber.

But when you look at Ks as a team stat it's a different story.  I haven't dug into it too deeply yet, but I believe there's a pretty strong negative correlation between team Ks and team runs scored.

2024 top 6 teams in Ks, with their position in runs scored per game in brackets.

1 Seattle (T23)

2 Colorado (T18)

3 Boston (T9)

4 Pittsburgh (22)

5 Oakland (26)

6 Tampa Bay (29)

[dgalehouse]

There are situations where you need to put the ball in play. Nothing good comes from a strikeout. 

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We've talked about players who can be very productive even though they strike out a lot.  A prime example being old friend Kyle Schwarber.

But when you look at Ks as a team stat it's a different story.  I haven't dug into it too deeply yet, but I believe there's a pretty strong negative correlation between team Ks and team runs scored.

2024 top 6 teams in Ks, with their position in runs scored per game in brackets.

1 Seattle (T23)

2 Colorado (T18)

3 Boston (T9)

4 Pittsburgh (22)

5 Oakland (26)

6 Tampa Bay (29)

No doubt, there is a strong correlation.  Yes, we notice there are not many players with high K rates, who also hit well, as in also have high OPS.

I'm just saying I look for players who have high OPS and like them. I look at those with low OPS and usually dislike them, unless their D outweighs their poor O. I just don't look at K's, first.

I'd rather have a .780 batter with 150 Ks than a .740 batter with 75 Ks (same amount of PAs.)

[dgalehouse]

OPS is okay to give you an idea of a hitter's overall productivity. But it is not a real thing. It's something someone conceived of by adding two different stats together and taking the sum total. There is a redundancy in giving credit twice for one thing. And regardless of whether you prefer On base percentage or slugging percentage, there is no chance that these two different stats are exactly equal in value. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

OPS is okay to give you an idea of a hitter's overall productivity. But it is not a real thing. It's something someone conceived of by adding two different stats together and taking the sum total. There is a redundancy in giving credit twice for one thing. And regardless of whether you prefer On base percentage or slugging percentage, there is no chance that these two different stats are exactly equal in value. 

Yes, there is a major flaw or two with OPS, but there is with K rate by itself, too.

I've always said something like 3 x OBP + 2 x SLG/ 5 would be much more telling.

Anyway you look at it, the "contrived" OPS number is more telling than any traditional stand alone stat.

[moonslav59]

If you look at the MLB OPS over the last 20 years, you'll see a couple very distinct periods of low numbers:

.720 in 2011 (5th worst)

.724 in 2012 (7th worst)

.714 in 2013 (4th worst)

.700 in 2014 (worst)

.721 in 2015 (6th worst)

and

.706 in 2022 (2nd worst)

,734 in 2023 (11th worst of mid range)

.712 in 2024 (3rd worst)

Two of the worst 3 years have been within the last 3 years.

Looking at 2024 individual OPS numbers, the sample size needs to be 300 PAs or more to reach 270 batters (30 teams x 9 batters.) The number 135 batter has an OPS of .720. The bottom third line begins at .690.. The bottom 9th is below .650.

When I see numbers this low, I can't help but think about Rafaela and his .670 OPS. This places him around #200 to 210 out of 270. That is firmly in the lower end of  the 7th of 9 tiers.

Devers, & O'Neill are top 1/9th

Duran, Ref and Abreu are 2nd 9th

Yoshida & Wong are 3rd 9th

(That's 7 players in the top 3rd tier.)

DHam in the 6th 9th

Rafaela in the 7th 9th

 

If you look at just OBP:

Ref & Devers top 1/9th

Yoshida, Duran and O'Neill 2/9th

Wong in 3/9th (6 in top 3rd)

Abreu 4/9th

DHam 6/9th

Rafaela bottom 9th

 

[Maxbialystock]

I blame the hitting coach for the recent bad hitting, but I am  the least credible of critics.

Today the Sox scored a ton of runs to win both games.  In game 1 it was all Casas.  In game 2 Gonzalez had 4 rbi's, and Crawford went 7.2 IP while giving up 3 ER.

If the Sox keep Sale, don't sign Giolito, and Casas and Story are healthy the whole season, I think the Sox make the postseason.  

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

There are situations where you need to put the ball in play. Nothing good comes from a strikeout. 

Right, and the only counter to that is that a K is better than hitting into a double play.  But that's not really much of a positive.   

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, and the only counter to that is that a K is better than hitting into a double play.  But that's not really much of a positive.   

I'm sure I'm not the only fan this year who agonized dozens of times -- maybe hundreds or thousands in my rueful recall -- when there was a baserunner on third... or even a ghost on second... and all I begged the hitter to do with his bat was, "TOUCH THE BALL!"

[Old Red]

7 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

I blame the hitting coach for the recent bad hitting, but I am  the least credible of critics.

Today the Sox scored a ton of runs to win both games.  In game 1 it was all Casas.  In game 2 Gonzalez had 4 rbi's, and Crawford went 7.2 IP while giving up 3 ER.

If the Sox keep Sale, don't sign Giolito, and Casas and Story are healthy the whole season, I think the Sox make the postseason.  

The Red Sox bats came alive yesterday in a Meaningless game for them paddling their overall stats to make them look better than they really have been especially when they have pretty much quit in Sept. way to go Casas. Ya Hoo!🙈🤭

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm sure I'm not the only fan this year who agonized dozens of times -- maybe hundreds or thousands in my rueful recall -- when there was a baserunner on third... or even a ghost on second... and all I begged the hitter to do with his bat was, "TOUCH THE BALL!"

Yeah, those are the situations where is a K is just a total fail.  

 

[notin]

21 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We've had a lot of problem areas rear their heads for various stretches of time this year - defense, starting pitching, bullpen...and now the offense.  (So just about everything, huh?)  

It's been shocking to watch the Red Sox offense devolve into game after game of whiff-fests.  The Sox are currently third in baseball in strikeouts, and you have the feeling that if the season was 200 games long, we'd be the betting favorite to end up on top.

I'm sure a lot of people are wondering how Peter Fatse still has his job or if he will still have it in 2025.

Personally, the development that really floored me was this one:

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/boston-red-sox-hire-former-new-york-yankees-hitting-coach-dillon-lawson-to-help-organization

I was shocked that the Red Sox would hire Lawson, after he was fired by the Yankees mid-season in 2023.  The biggest knock against the Yankees offense when Lawson was fired was that it was a bunch of guys swinging for the fences, with a large chunk of their scoring coming on the home run ball, a ton of K's, and lousy situational hitting.

This is the guy we think has a good hitting approach? The guy whose motto is "hit strikes hard"?

Of course I have no idea if Lawson has anything specific to do with our Red Sox rising storm of whiffs.  But the very fact the organization thought he had a good hitting approach really makes me wonder what is going on philosophy-wise.   

The plan is obvious.

Hire Lawson.  Watch the results.  Fire Lawson.  Watch the improvement.

They only hired him to set the baseline…

[mvp 78]

League Average is 22.6%

Sox under 22.6%:

Duran 21.7

Masa 12.5

Grissom 21.7 (92 PA)

Jansen 21.4 (89 PA)

That's it!!! Nobody else!!!

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

I blame the hitting coach for the recent bad hitting, but I am  the least credible of critics.

Today the Sox scored a ton of runs to win both games.  In game 1 it was all Casas.  In game 2 Gonzalez had 4 rbi's, and Crawford went 7.2 IP while giving up 3 ER.

If the Sox keep Sale, don't sign Giolito, and Casas and Story are healthy the whole season, I think the Sox make the postseason.  

Add 4 what ifs to other teams, too, and maybe not.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Add 4 what ifs to other teams, too, and maybe not.

Can't disagree with that.  "Coulda, woulda,shoulda" is rampant around both Leagues.  

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Can't disagree with that.  "Coulda, woulda,shoulda" is rampant around both Leagues.  

At the start of the season, I listed something like 30 reasonable things that "could go right" and posited that maybe we needed 20-25 to happen to end up with a good season. I'm going to go back and try to fine that post. My guess is we probably fell about 3-5 short of my best case hope.

You were not wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

Little Raffy still stuck on 15 walks.  150 Ks for a nice round 10-1 ratio.

In kangaroo courts around MLB there's probably a stiff fine for any pitcher who walks Rafaela. 

 

[moonslav59]

That 15:1 ratio does have some competition in MLB history.

Since 1925 (last 100 years,) here are the worst BB:K ratios of any MLB player with 500+ PAs in a season:

 

13:162 T Anderson '17 (1:12.5)

9:96 Ivan Rod '07 (1:10.7)

15:150 Rafaela (1:10)

11:93 I Rod '05 (1:8.5)

9:80 Strange Gordon '18 (1:8.9)

15:113 Alex Gonzalez '99 (1:7.5)

Nobody had more Ks and a worse ratio than Rafaela, except Tim Anderson.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

That 15:1 ratio does have some competition in MLB history.

Since 1925 (last 100 years,) here are the worst BB:K ratios of any MLB player with 500+ PAs in a season:

 

13:162 T Anderson '17 (1:12.5)

9:96 Ivan Rod '07 (1:10.7)

15:150 Rafaela (1:10)

11:93 I Rod '05 (1:8.5)

9:80 Strange Gordon '18 (1:8.9)

15:113 Alex Gonzalez '99 (1:7.5)

Nobody had more Ks and a worse ratio than Rafaela, except Tim Anderson.

 

any idea how many of his K's were looking? he swings at everything.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

any idea how many of his K's were looking? he swings at everything.

Not sure how to find that number, but both had a Call Strike percent between 29-30% on all stikes.

[Bellhorn04]

2024 team K/BB ratios, worst to best:

Colorado Rockies	3.57
Chicago White Sox	3.55
Miami Marlins	3.50
Boston Red Sox	3.18
Pittsburgh Pirates	3.11
Detroit Tigers	3.07
Oakland Athletics	3.05
Atlanta Braves	3.03
Tampa Bay Rays	3.01
San Francisco Giants	2.95
Cincinnati Reds	2.94
Los Angeles Angels	2.94
Seattle Mariners	2.85
Baltimore Orioles	2.78
Minnesota Twins	2.76
League Average	2.76
St. Louis Cardinals	2.76
Kansas City Royals	2.71
Washington Nationals	2.68
New York Mets	2.66
Philadelphia Phillies	2.66
Houston Astros	2.63
Texas Rangers	2.62
Cleveland Guardians	2.57
Chicago Cubs	2.49
Milwaukee Brewers	2.44
Toronto Blue Jays	2.42
San Diego Padres	2.35
Arizona Diamondbacks	2.22
Los Angeles Dodgers	2.22
New York Yankees	1.97

 

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees ditched Dillon Lawson, and we signed him, and look what happened!

More awesome thinking from the Red Sox brain trust. 

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Yankees ditched Dillon Lawson, and we signed him, and look what happened!

More awesome thinking from the Red Sox brain trust. 

A large part of it is personnel, not just the coaching. Some posters would like to put 100% of the blame on Rafaela. I think if they add one or two guys who take a few more pitches, similar to Schwarber's approach and its impact in '21, it would help the a few of the other guys. 

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Yankees ditched Dillon Lawson, and we signed him, and look what happened!

More awesome thinking from the Red Sox brain trust. 

and John Henry thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. LOLOLOLOLOL.

[Bellhorn04]

Rather than start a new thread I'll just resurrect this one.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rather than start a new thread I'll just resurrect this one.

The sample size is nearly legit.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The sample size is nearly legit.

The sample size for team K's-2024 + the first 18 games of 2025-is already legit to be deeply concerned about IMHO.     

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The sample size for team K's-2024 + the first 18 games of 2025-is already legit to be deeply concerned about IMHO.     

For sure, and we are far outpacing the league's K increases.

The lowering OBP and lack of power worries me more.