Article: Where The Red Sox Went Wrong: Ceddanne Rafaela's Plate "Discipline"

[Daniel Fox]

Today, we will look at a young outfielder who has all the tools in the world but is held back by a complete lack of plate discipline. Let’s take a deep dive into Ceddanne Rafaela.

In the first installment of this series, we broke down what went wrong with the 2024 Red Sox. We looked at Masataka Yoshida's predicament, diving deep into what to do with a guy whose only real skill is making contact, yet is making $18 million.

I don’t want it to seem like I hate Ceddanne Rafaela. He is incredibly fun to watch. He is an easy guy to root for. His speed, defense, and solid power give him a floor of at least a second-division regular.

At the same time, however, we need to be honest and realistic about his performance this year and moving forward. His 45.6% chase rate isn’t just bad; it is the “worst season of Javier Baez” bad. He has somehow walked only 15 times in 528 plate appearances, leading to a putrid on-base percentage of .281. Even when he can put the bat on the ball, he doesn’t do enough damage: his hard-hit percentage is only in the 31st percentile, and his average exit velocity is only in the 13th percentile.

What makes all this especially worrisome is that Rafaela hasn’t just improved his plate discipline as the season has gone along; he has actually gotten worse. Since his last walk on August 10 (today is September 13), Rafaela has struck out 31 times while slashing .226/.233./.353. As bad as those numbers are, the anecdotal evidence might somehow be worse:

What I fear with Rafaela is that pitchers are just not going to throw him strikes, and let him get himself out. After all, there’s a reason why there are no hitters in baseball who chase as frequently and walk as infrequently. Pitchers are smart, and if you have a glaring weakness, you can bet they are going to expose it. It only took a couple years for pitchers to realize you didn’t need to throw Javier Baez a strike, and he went from an perennial All-Star to arguably the worst hitter in baseball.

Of course, these worries would be a lot less urgent if not for the eight-year, $50 million contract extension he signed in April. There was absolutely no reason to make such a risky investment, because the chances that a flawed player like Rafaela, who only really has average offensive upside, is good enough that a $13 million a year salary ends up as a steal is extremely small. The bigger issue, however, is that the contract forces you to lock Rafaela into your starting lineup for the next eight years. No sending him down to the minors, no using him as a utility player, and most importantly, no trading him. The fact that the Red Sox are committed to paying him $13 million a year seven years from now means that he’s going to be in the starting lineup no matter what, because anything else would be admitting the contract was a mistake.

The issue with this is that the best Red Sox lineup moving forward, in my opinion, does not include Rafaela. Contracts notwithstanding, I would roll with Roman Anthony in left field, Jarren Duran in center field, and Wilyer Abreu in right field. Three young outfielders with solid power, plus defense, and decent plate discipline. Yet the need to commit to Rafaela means that one of those guys is not going to be an everyday player next year.

So what can the Sox do now? The good news is that Rafaela can be as good a center fielder as there is in the game, and there will always be a place for him on a major league roster. From an offensive standpoint, Rafaela has enough power to not be a complete zero at the bottom of the order, but his lack of plate discipline becomes a bigger issue when the rest of the lineup is striking out more than anyone in the league besides the Mariners and the Athletics.

If the Red Sox are going to commit to Rafaela playing every day, then they need to acquire more players elsewhere in the lineup that will put together quality at-bats. In that case, they can rely less on Rafaela to provide production and allow him to develop his plate discipline from “historically bad” to just “regular bad.”

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[Bellhorn04]

Excellent article that doesn't sugar-coat the problem in the slightest.  I've tried to support Ceddanne's approach but as the article says, this is likely to only get worse as pitchers simply stop throwing him hittable strikes.  And it does make that $50 million commitment look worrisome.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good points, but untimely. Rafaela -- a young talent who has "figured it out" at every level in his rise to The Show -- so far has done enough good things to contribute.

Maybe his contract is more an indictment of a very worrisome organization... the same one that opened the season with guys like Reese McGuire and Bobby Dalbec on the big league roster.

McGuire is batting .086, and last night Dalbec went 0-for-4 with 4 strikeouts... both in Triple A.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Red Sox should have the budget to keep Rafaela as a fourth outfielder should that become the best position for him in the future. I'm generally in favor of locking up young players into free agency because the dollars required to do so just aren't that large.

But for the reasons pointed out in this article, I'm not sure I would have chosen Rafaela as my first target.

[Maxbialystock]

Whattalotta from the OP.  Right now, with Story back and playing well at SS, Rafaela is still the best outfielder on the team and the 2d best SS.  

While I could not agree more with his indiscipline at the plate, Rafaela also has the 4th most total bases on the team, 3d most rbi's, tied for 4th most dingers, 4th most runs scored, 3d most SB's, and tied for 2d most triples.  Last season he played in just 28 games, and this season he's played the 2d most games on the Sox, 142.  

I therefore do not agree that the Sox "went wrong" on Rafaela.  Yes, the indiscipline is a problem, but it's countered by all the other pluses as well as the real possibility he can fix his "swing at everything."  

Did I forget to mention Rafaela's WAR is +2.7?  The Yankees paid Jacoby Ellsbury I think around $150M for 7 seasons.  He played four and in those four his WAR's were 3.3, 1.9, 2.8, and 1.7.  That's a total of 8.7 which, if divided by 7 seasons, averages out to WAR +1.2.  

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

49 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

The Yankees paid Jacoby Ellsbury I think around $150M for 7 seasons.  He played four and in those four his WAR's were 3.3, 1.9, 2.8, and 1.7.  That's a total of 8.7 which, if divided by 7 seasons, averages out to WAR +1.2.  

To be fair, I literally laughed out loud when the Yankees signed Ellsbury to that contract. 

[Hugh2]

Let me start off by saying I like Rafaela and I believe in him being the everyday center fielder.

teaching an approach is possibly the hardest tool to teach above all else.  Players learn to identify pitches, their bodies grow into power and velocity, but rarely do they improve their chase percentage.  It’s practically a physical extension of themselves.

rafaela adds value in so many other ways, and his defense alone probably makes him a two War player.  He’s perfectly fine stashed in the bottom of a lineup in even a WS caliber team.

but a lot of the skills he has will wane over time, when he slows down a bit how will all his other skills translate? It’s for this reason that I believe he will have a good but not long MLB career. He’s exactly the type of player who will probably not be starting at age 30.

im happy he’s our starting center fielder for years to come. But the decision to extend him is perhaps one of the most perplexing I’ve seen in a long time.

[moonslav59]

I love this article, and I'm a  fan or Rafaela, who still liked the extension we gave him.

While I do agree than an OF of Duran-Anthony and Abreu looks better, on paper, I'd modify it to put Rafaela in CF and Anthony in RF vs LHPs. 

To piggyback on the point about the short-coming of Yoshida at DH, I'd much prefer to see this alignment:

LF: Duran (Ref/Abreu)

CF: Rafaela (Duran/Anthony)

RF: Anthony (Abreu/Ref in short RF parks, only)

DH: Abreu-Ref platoon.

Sit Rafaela vs some or many tough RHPs and maybe DH E Valdez, if he's on the 26 and go with the OF suggested in many games with RH'd SP'ers. Vs LHPs, Rafaela is playing over Abreu in 100% of the games.

[Maddie Landis]

Constructive criticism is beneficial to player development. This is a great writeup for an issue that the Red Sox media seldom mentions. 

Sox Prospects made the following comments about Rafael's plate discipline:

"Very aggressive approach that still needs refinement even after making strides with his swing decisions.... Very high chase rate against minor league arms that could be exposed even further at the major league level if he does not continue to improve his swing decisions."

In 2024, this translates to:

• 78.5 Zone Swing % (6th in the league)
• 23.9 Zone Swing & Miss % (9th in the league)
• 45.7 Out of Zone Swing % (1st in the league)
• 61.5 Swing % (2nd in the league)

The team might've jumped the gun on Rafaela. However, he's been a valuable contributor to the team. 

Rafaela possesses 87th percentile speed, 94th percentile arm strength, and tremendous defensive capabilities at SS and CF. Despite his lack of hard hit balls, he still has 15 HRs. Unlike speed or power, plate discipline is a teachable skill. Players are finding ways to decrease their strikeout rate.

It's still Rafaela's first season in the majors. He has the potential to be a five-tool player if he develops a more disciplined plate approach. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notcraigbreslow said:

Constructive criticism is beneficial to player development. This is a great writeup for an issue that the Red Sox media seldom mentions. 

Sox Prospects made the following comments about Rafael's plate discipline:

"Very aggressive approach that still needs refinement even after making strides with his swing decisions.... Very high chase rate against minor league arms that could be exposed even further at the major league level if he does not continue to improve his swing decisions."

In 2024, this translates to:

• 78.5 Zone Swing % (6th in the league)
• 23.9 Zone Swing & Miss % (9th in the league)
• 45.7 Out of Zone Swing % (1st in the league)
• 61.5 Swing % (2nd in the league)

The team might've jumped the gun on Rafaela. However, he's been a valuable contributor to the team. 

Rafaela possesses 87th percentile speed, 94th percentile arm strength, and tremendous defensive capabilities at SS and CF. Despite his lack of hard hit balls, he still has 15 HRs. Unlike speed or power, plate discipline is a teachable skill. Players are finding ways to decrease their strikeout rate.

It's still Rafaela's first season in the majors. He has the potential to be a five-tool player if he develops a more disciplined plate approach. 

I've always felt a line-up is better with a mix of batting styles that includes some "aggressive -type" batters. We have Devers and Rafaela. Other batters may K, too much, but I would not call them free swingers.

Maybe they can help Rafaela improve his discipline, but sometimes trying to tweak a batter's whole syle can backfire.

[Maddie Landis]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I've always felt a line-up is better with a mix of batting styles that includes some "aggressive -type" batters. We have Devers and Rafaela. Other batters may K, too much, but I would not call them free swingers.

The 2023 MLB average expected whiff rate was 26%.

Rafaela is absolutely a free swinger. 

Rafaela's Whiff% is below average for only two types of pitches: 

• 2023 4-Seam FB: 19.0% Whiff%
• 2023 Sinker: 18.6% Whiff%
• 2024 Sinker: 17.2% Whiff%

There's a good potpourri of different batting styles in the Sox lineup. Masa works up pitcher's counts. Casas and Duran make smart adjustments at the plate. 

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe they can help Rafaela improve his discipline, but sometimes trying to tweak a batter's whole syle can backfire.

Improving his plate discipline could just be helping him learn how to identify different pitches and making the proper adjustments to hit them. 

To me, tweaking his style would mean changing his swing to increase his bat speed or launch angle to pull more fly balls. 

[mvp 78]

For all the reasons posted above, I initially questioned the rush and cost of the extension of Rafaela. 

I like him as a player, but accept his warts. He’s not going to figure out the plate discipline IMO.