A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

If we are better off because other teams got worse, that is still a good thing.

I get the same record argument, and for all we know, we may end up with a worse record than 2022 and 2023, but I feel way better about our future than I did after 2022 and before this season began, and that is not based just on the promise our top prospects bring to our future: it's based on who is returning from the 2024 team and several questions that were answered, positively, over this season.

I hate relying on players returning from injuries as a significant factor in evaluating next year's team, but we do seem to have a lot of potential in those players:

Giolito, Whitlock, Fulmer and a full season from Slaten. 

Full seasons from Story, Casas & Grissom.

Of course, some of these players may not do well, or get re-injured, and other players might take their places on the IL, but I think going into 2025, we look way better than we did going into 2023 and 2024.

Houck looks better now than in March. Gio returns. Crawford showed some promise. Bello has done better, recently. The depth from Criswell, priester and Fitts looks better.

Our pen looks worse, with the loss of Jansen & Martin, although the 2024 Martin does not need a great replacement pitcher to do as well. Slaten is a year older. Fulmer and Henriks might impress, and guys like I Campbell, Weissert, Kelly and others have room to improve.

Our offense looks way better than we thought it did, over the winter, where we lost Turner, Dugo & Duvall.

Our defensive outlook looks brighter, if and only if Story can stay healthy. I guess Rafaela winning a FT job improves the outlook, too.

I get the point about not wanting JH to think our optimism is justification for his "plan," but I'm not going to deny it, just to keep him on his toes. (I doubt he reads what we say, anyway.)

[moonslav59]

On 9/11/2024 at 10:14 PM, Randy Red Sox said:

come on Moon.  all the other MLB  teams know we are about to have a glut in the OF and Abreu probably doesn't fit. that will not help his trade value

It does not change his trade value one penny.

If it did, then it would be cancelled out by everybody knowing SEA has a glut of pitchers and is desperate for bats, so we can demand more value for Casas and Abreu, right?

Besides, we can DH Abreu, if Anthony wins the RF job. Maybe trade Casas and give Abreu a 1B mitt.

[Bellhorn04]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we are better off because other teams got worse, that is still a good thing.

Nope, we're not better off.  Identical record is identical record.  MLB is a zero sum game.  It's just random happenstance that the AL third wild card's record will be a little worse than last year.

It just postponed our elimination date by a few days.

Don't drink the Henry/Kennedy kool-aid.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nope, we're not better off.  Identical record is identical record.  MLB is a zero sum game.  It's just random happenstance that the AL third wild card's record will be a little worse than last year.

It just postponed our elimination date by a few days.

Don't drink the Henry/Kennedy kool-aid.

It's not drinking any Kool-Aid. 

Being better than more teams is a good thing, and it's not just because they got worse. IMO, we are better than the 2022 and 2023 team both now and in our future outlook.

This is NOT patting JH on the back in any way, shape of form.

We botched numerous ways to improve the record, and some of that is on Brez- like the Gio signing, the Sale trade and his deadline deals. 

It's not JH's fault Brez signed Gio over Stroman or Flaherty, but that is not being a JH apologist to point it out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nope, we're not better off.  Identical record is identical record.  MLB is a zero sum game.  It's just random happenstance that the AL third wild card's record will be a little worse than last year.

It just postponed our elimination date by a few days.

Don't drink the Henry/Kennedy kool-aid.

How good are the 2024 Red Sox?

In the American League, it's easy as 1-2-3:

1st in Errors, 2nd in Striking Out, 3rd in Runs Allowed.

Those reflect serious flaws in fielding, batting and pitching. 

At least there's baserunning: 3rd in Stolen Bases; good... 4th in Caught Stealing; not so good.

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not drinking any Kool-Aid. 

Being better than more teams is a good thing, and it's not just because they got worse. IMO, we are better than the 2022 and 2023 team both now and in our future outlook.

So explain how we're better than last year, using actual numbers.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, I agree the future looks better.  But the present needs a reality check.  We're still just a .500 team and one that is trending down.  

I don't think they're in a position to go for it in 2025.  I see them kicking it down the road one more time.

 

Even if they aren't kicking the can down the road, I don't think the players will be quite ready. All the pieces won't be in place yet IMO. They still need to deal with roadblocks like Story and Yoshida as well and that will take longer than one offseason. 

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

How good are the 2024 Red Sox?

In the American League, it's easy as 1-2-3:

1st in Errors, 2nd in Striking Out, 3rd in Runs Allowed.

Those reflect serious flaws in fielding, batting and pitching. 

At least there's baserunning: 3rd in Stolen Bases; good... 4th in Caught Stealing; not so good.

There are serious flaws in the guys who assembled the team.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if they aren't kicking the can down the road, I don't think the players will be quite ready. All the pieces won't be in place yet IMO. They still need to deal with roadblocks like Story and Yoshida as well and that will take longer than one offseason. 

They should punt even harder next year.  Go full Ray Guy. 😜

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

They should punt even harder next year. 😜

I think they can still sign guys, but I wouldn't go crazy with one year contract guys. If there is a good long term contract guy that will help you in 26, 27 and 28 it'd be dumb to let that guy go by just because you may not be good enough in 25. 

That doesn't mean that's the road JH goes down though. 😩

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they can still sign guys, but I wouldn't go crazy with one year contract guys. If there is a good long term contract guy that will help you in 26, 27 and 28 it'd be dumb to let that guy go by just because you may not be good enough in 25. 

That doesn't mean that's the road JH goes down though. 😩

JH is thinking they've made it through 3 years of this BS, one more should be cake.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

JH is thinking they've made it through 3 years of this BS, one more should be cake.

I just need some garlic and a wooden stake. I'll take care of all of this.🧛‍♂️

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So explain how we're better than last year, using actual numbers.

fWAR Everyday players

19.4 2024 (15th) season not over

13.2 2023 (23rd)

18.3 2022 (17th)

 

Pitchers

13.5 (12th) more season left

13.7 2023 (21st)

10.1 2022 (22nd)

 

These actual numbers show vast improvement. It's not really all that close.

32.9 total fWAR 2024 (Should end up near 34, but could go down to 31.5ish.)

26.9 2023

28.4 2022

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

fWAR Everyday players

19.4 2024 (15th) season not over

13.2 2023 (23rd)

18.3 2022 (17th)

 

Pitchers

13.5 (12th) more season left

13.7 2023 (21st)

10.1 2022 (22nd)

 

These actual numbers show vast improvement. It's not really all that close.

32.9 total fWAR 2024 (Should end up near 34, but could go down to 31.5ish.)

26.9 2023

28.4 2022

So how come our run differential is virtually the same?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So how come our run differential is virtually the same?

LOL random? 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

LOL random? 

Somethin' doesn't compute.  

I'm off to play golf, I'll have to let you guys figure it out.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nope, we're not better off.  Identical record is identical record.  MLB is a zero sum game.  It's just random happenstance that the AL third wild card's record will be a little worse than last year.

It just postponed our elimination date by a few days.

Don't drink the Henry/Kennedy kool-aid.

So you’re saying a team that goes 81-81 with a $250mill payroll with lots of long term commitments is in the same place as a team that goes 81-81 with 6 rookies?   After all, identical records are identical records.

 

The Sox have 3 ROY candidates (per this site) and (IMO) saw steps forward from 3 starting pitchers. Shouldn’t that count for something?

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So how come our run differential is virtually the same?

less timely hitting, which is not a sustainable skillset?

worse D, but that is captured by fWAR?

Bad luck?

Id run differential what we should use? I thought it was record. Are those two numbers most important?

[moonslav59]

I'm as pissed at JH as anyone else. His tightening of the budget is a major reason for where we are, right now.

That does not mean I'm going to lie about my increased optimism about our direction, and thinking we are better now than 2022 and 2023.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Somethin' doesn't compute.  

I'm off to play golf, I'll have to let you guys figure it out.

My fiscal year ends on 9/30 and it is budget season. I'll leave it for the moon man. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My fiscal year ends on 9/30 and it is budget season. I'll leave it for the moon man. 

Lux Tax Numbers:

$104M for 9 players: 29.1 Devers, 23.3 Story, 19.3 Gio, 18.0 Yoshi, 9.2 Bello, 6.3 Raf, 5.0 Hendriks, 4.7 Whit, 2.0 Ref (assuming no retirement)

$16M on 3 first year arb players: 6.5 Houck, 5.0 Duran, 4.5 Casas (wild guesses by me.)

That's $120M on 12 players. The rest are pre-arb, until we add someone by trade or signings.  14 players at pre-arb prices might be about $10M. Add $17.5M for player benefits, about $4.8M for the rest of the 40 man roster and $1.7M for bonus pool, and we may be close to $145M before any additions.

I'm not sure how accurate this is and welcome anyone to suggest adjusting my numbers.

I have us $95M under the lux tax, but this does not jive with cots who has us at $135M before arbs and pre-arbs added. Spotrac has us estimated at $137M payroll. If you add the benefits and bonus pool, it comes to almost $165M, which is $20M more than I have.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/11/2024 at 10:13 PM, Duran Is The Man said:

we all say this every year but nothing ever happens. i don't see why next year will be any different.

it probably won't

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It does not change his trade value one penny.

If it did, then it would be cancelled out by everybody knowing SEA has a glut of pitchers and is desperate for bats, so we can demand more value for Casas and Abreu, right?

Besides, we can DH Abreu, if Anthony wins the RF job. Maybe trade Casas and give Abreu a 1B mitt.

i think you are overrating Abreu.  I like him too but he's no star

[mvp 78]

Quote

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Lux Tax Numbers:

$104M for 9 players: 29.1 Devers, 23.3 Story, 19.3 Gio, 18.0 Yoshi, 9.2 Bello, 6.3 Raf, 5.0 Hendriks, 4.7 Whit, 2.0 Ref (assuming no retirement)

$16M on 3 first year arb players: 6.5 Houck, 5.0 Duran, 4.5 Casas (wild guesses by me.)

That's $120M on 12 players. The rest are pre-arb, until we add someone by trade or signings.  14 players at pre-arb prices might be about $10M. Add $17.5M for player benefits, about $4.8M for the rest of the 40 man roster and $1.7M for bonus pool, and we may be close to $145M before any additions.

I'm not sure how accurate this is and welcome anyone to suggest adjusting my numbers.

I have us $95M under the lux tax, but this does not jive with cots who has us at $135M before arbs and pre-arbs added. Spotrac has us estimated at $137M payroll. If you add the benefits and bonus pool, it comes to almost $165M, which is $20M more than I have.

 

Casas is still preARB next year. His first year is '26. 

[mvp 78]

Moving Abreu to 1b wastes his defense. Right now, he's a platoon bat. You'd almost turn him into Enmanuel Valdez. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i think you are overrating Abreu.  I like him too but he's no star

I'm not calling him a star. I called him a platoon player who fields a difficult position well to very well, while being a top 30 OPS guy.

I'm wondering how you value middle RP'ers. If you respect fWAR, there are only 32 RP'ers with an fWAR at 1.2 or better (Slaten is at 1.2 for perspective.) 40 are at 1.0+. To me, a middle RP'er might be ranked 90th to 120th among all RP'ers. That is a 0.4 to 0.5 pitcher, or which MLB has 38 in that range in 2024 (#89 to #128.) there are 30 more pitchers at 0.3.

Abreu had a 0.6 fWAR in just 85 PAs in 2023. He has a 3.0 fWAR, this year. The best RP'ers, this year are at 2.3 fWAR, now. I'm not saying Abreu is better than every closer in MLB, but I think he's better than 2 middle guys, for sure. Hell, 3.0 places him top 30 among all pitchers in fWAR- like Hunter Brown, Zach Eflin, Steele and Cortes. Again, I'm not saying we could trade him for one of them, but he's worth a #3 SP'er or a couple of good set-up men (7th and 8th inning RP'ers,) IMO.

He's also very cheap and has 4-5 years of control. That has to be worth a #3 SP'er with 2-3 years of control.

 

[Old Red]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To me the "meaningful baseball in September" thing is a scam, one that Henry and his minions would love us to embrace.

They have the identical record they did last year at this time!

They just caught a break with the Rays and Jays falling back.  But they're not good enough to take advantage.

The "meaningful games" are being played with a miniscule chance of making the playoffs.

They should be officially toast any day now.

If I sound pissed I am.  Not at the team but at Henry and his minions.

 

 

I think this sums it up pretty well. Like I said earlier the September Red Sox are a fantasy contender in fantasy contention.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not calling him a star. I called him a platoon player who fields a difficult position well to very well, while being a top 30 OPS guy.

I'm wondering how you value middle RP'ers. If you respect fWAR, there are only 32 RP'ers with an fWAR at 1.2 or better (Slaten is at 1.2 for perspective.) 40 are at 1.0+. To me, a middle RP'er might be ranked 90th to 120th among all RP'ers. That is a 0.4 to 0.5 pitcher, or which MLB has 38 in that range in 2024 (#89 to #128.) there are 30 more pitchers at 0.3.

Abreu had a 0.6 fWAR in just 85 PAs in 2023. He has a 3.0 fWAR, this year. The best RP'ers, this year are at 2.3 fWAR, now. I'm not saying Abreu is better than every closer in MLB, but I think he's better than 2 middle guys, for sure. Hell, 3.0 places him top 30 among all pitchers in fWAR- like Hunter Brown, Zach Eflin, Steele and Cortes. Again, I'm not saying we could trade him for one of them, but he's worth a #3 SP'er or a couple of good set-up men (7th and 8th inning RP'ers,) IMO.

He's also very cheap and has 4-5 years of control. That has to be worth a #3 SP'er with 2-3 years of control.

 

not a chance he gets us a good #3 SP on his own.  give me an example of a #3 sp  you think Abreu would bring back in a trade

[dgalehouse]

Just in case you needed another reason to hate the greedy Lords of Baseball, tonight's Red Sox/ Yankees game is exclusively on Apple+ TV.  

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

not a chance he gets us a good #3 SP on his own.  give me an example of a #3 sp  you think Abreu would bring back in a trade

I have no idea what team would do it, but I count pitchers ranked from about #61 to 90 as #3 SP'ers.

These might be pitchers like these:

by fWAR (1.7 to 2.0): jake irvin, J Tailon, Nick Pivetta, R Blanco, K Crawford

by ERA (3.85 to 4.25) Mitch keller, A healey, K Crawford, Gausman, jake Irvin, Bassitt

by xFIP (4.05 to 4.25:) Heaney, Bassitt, Taillon, Wacha, Blanco, Gausman

Some names are on 2 or 3 lists.

You think Pivetta is better than Abreu? (Now, the Sox need pitching, so we would probably not trade 3 years of Pivetta for 5 years of Abreu, and the gae and years of control matter, too, but I think many names I listed seem about even in value.

I did lis those who look much better or worse, but look for yourself:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&pageitems=100&month=0&sortcol=19&sortdir=default&qual=80&pagenum=1