Maximizing value - The Red Sox should sell high on Jarren Duran

[StephenCurry30]

He is already turning 28 and not as young people may think. He is eligible for arbitration and has had mental health issues and is hard to rely on. Maybe not at the deadline, but certainly in the off season he should be dealt now before he has to be paid.

 

He reminds me of Jackie Bradley Jr who the Sox should’ve moved on way earlier than they did, he’ll have value around the league now that he can play defense at a high level. I just don’t think his ceiling is that high

 

Exciting. Good player. Does he fit the timeline? Not really. Would

Someone overpay? I think so

[Nick]

He is a 4 year arbitration guy. So the Sox has another 4 years of team control.

 

He has improved his defense immensely. I believe the management loves his athleticism.

 

He has shown he can play everyday. He may not be 'young' but having control of his 29-32 years mean he should be at the top of his game.

 

I would not trade him.

[Hugh2]

How does anyone know we would be selling high on Duran?

 

And if we are, why would anyone think their personal assesment of his value is superior to the professional scouting department of an entire MLB organization?

 

You don't go trading away young talent, not when you desperately lack that. Now, in a few years when guys like Anthony have broken into the bigs and the outfield gets crowded it might make a lot more sense to trade Duran, or someone else?

[Bellhorn04]

How does anyone know we would be selling high on Duran?

 

Exactly.

[moonslav59]

I believe the 2023-2024 Duran is the one that will continue on into the near future (next 3-4 years.)

 

We all remember the old Duran, always tweaking his swing or stance and bumbling around on D, but we should remember that he started at 2B.

 

I think he is for real, now, but of course, this stretch could be the outlier.

 

With O'Neill becoming a FA, I'd keep Duran, Ref & Abreu. (Rafaela is not going anywhere.)

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

Agreed.

 

Maybe memories of Jacoby are too strong.

[Duran Is The Man]

He is already turning 28 and not as young people may think. He is eligible for arbitration and has had mental health issues and is hard to rely on. Maybe not at the deadline, but certainly in the off season he should be dealt now before he has to be paid.

 

He reminds me of Jackie Bradley Jr who the Sox should’ve moved on way earlier than they did, he’ll have value around the league now that he can play defense at a high level. I just don’t think his ceiling is that high

 

Exciting. Good player. Does he fit the timeline? Not really. Would

Someone overpay? I think so

 

you're out of your f***ing mind.

[mvp 78]

He's cheap for the next few years. Enjoy him as long as he's playing well. Guys like him don't typically age well so just keep him around until FA.

 

Unless you're getting an ace back, why would you move him at this point?

[notin]

He's cheap for the next few years. Enjoy him as long as he's playing well. Guys like him don't typically age well so just keep him around until FA.

 

Unless you're getting an ace back, why would you move him at this point?

 

It wi9ll be interesting to see how the OF plays out.

 

Duran, Rafaela and Abreu are all under team control for the next 4 seasons. Plus Roman Anthony figures to knock on the door soon, and probably some other outfielders in the system can make themselves known. It's possible someone from this Sox outfield is not here as soon as next year (not counting O'Neill, who is likely gone after this season)...

[mvp 78]

It wi9ll be interesting to see how the OF plays out.

 

Duran, Rafaela and Abreu are all under team control for the next 4 seasons. Plus Roman Anthony figures to knock on the door soon, and probably some other outfielders in the system can make themselves known. It's possible someone from this Sox outfield is not here as soon as next year (not counting O'Neill, who is likely gone after this season)...

 

Duran - LF

Rafaela - CF

Anthony - RF

Abreu - 4th OFer

Refsnyder - 5th OFer

 

The only near term filler from the minors would possibly be Lugo, but that guy has had a very volatile development track and his defense is really LF only at this point. Castro, Bleis and others are still in A ball and lower with uncertain timetables and projections.

[Dipre]

He's cheap for the next few years. Enjoy him as long as he's playing well. Guys like him don't typically age well so just keep him around until FA.

 

Unless you're getting an ace back, why would you move him at this point?

 

But they're usually mighty productive into at least their early 30's.

[mvp 78]

But they're usually mighty productive into at least their early 30's.

 

He'll be 32 after his last year of arbitration. I expect a decline around then for him at least in terms of his speed, which is his greatest asset.

[notin]

Duran - LF

Rafaela - CF

Anthony - RF

Abreu - 4th OFer

Refsnyder - 5th OFer

 

The only near term filler from the minors would possibly be Lugo, but that guy has had a very volatile development track and his defense is really LF only at this point. Castro, Bleis and others are still in A ball and lower with uncertain timetables and projections.

 

If the Sox can stay within striking distance and actually decide to be buyers, Lugo is the prime sell high candidate right now...

[notin]

He's cheap for the next few years. Enjoy him as long as he's playing well. Guys like him don't typically age well so just keep him around until FA.

 

Unless you're getting an ace back, why would you move him at this point?

 

Even if it is not an ace per se, if the Sox can get a controllable SP, is he worth a deal?

 

With BTV going to a pay model, I don't know the values right now. But if you can get a 2-3 starter with 3 years of control, do you pull the trigger? Some suggestions - Mackenzie Gore? Alek Manoah? Nick Lodolo? Josiah Gray? Reid Detmers?

 

These are all pitchers who reach free agency one year prior to Duran, and are all varying degrees of good but none would be considered ace level today. Not sure what teams would actually want Jarren, however. But I am not asking if those teams would pull the trigger...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Trading Duran, who is perhaps the most exciting player on the team and one of the best defensive OF's in the league and who is being paid the league minimum, really makes a lot of sense. Nonsense.

[Dipre]

He'll be 32 after his last year of arbitration. I expect a decline around then for him at least in terms of his speed, which is his greatest asset.

 

Then they can trade him down the line. Right now he's cheap, young and filling a need. Why would you trade him now?

[Maxbialystock]

He is already turning 28 and not as young people may think. He is eligible for arbitration and has had mental health issues and is hard to rely on. Maybe not at the deadline, but certainly in the off season he should be dealt now before he has to be paid.

 

He reminds me of Jackie Bradley Jr who the Sox should’ve moved on way earlier than they did, he’ll have value around the league now that he can play defense at a high level. I just don’t think his ceiling is that high

 

Exciting. Good player. Does he fit the timeline? Not really. Would

Someone overpay? I think so

 

Utter nonsense. Duran has by far the highest WAR, +2.8, on the Sox--and the 6th highest in MLB. He is good at the two things the Sox aren't good at--hitting and defense. There is no evidence mental health is a debilitating issue with him. You want debilitating, go look at Chris Sale's track record with the Sox, plus Story, Whitlock, Giolito, Casas (from swinging a freaking bat!!!!!), Yoshida, et al.

 

Apparently, the Sox have him under control for his prime years, so what could be better?

 

If the younger guys prove to be better than Duran, I would be fine with trading him, but not now.

 

Oh, and the Sox use of JBJ was spot on. They lost Ellsbury to the Yankees, who vastly overpaid him, and got good value from JBJ, 2014-2020. It was dumb bringing him back in 2022, but that season was doomed anyway.

[moonslav59]

I'm against the idea of trading Duran, but he is at his highest value, ever.

 

He may raise that value, but his trade value is high, right now.

 

Without Duran, our OF future would look like this:

LF: Abreu/Refsnyder (Lugo?)

CF: Rafaela/Anthony

RF: Anthony/Abreu

 

That's not bad. It is drop off from one with Duran, but what would be the increase with the return value and where would that improvement be?

 

Again, I would not trade Duran. (Many of us would have 1.5+ years ago, when his value was low or so-so.)

 

[notin]

Then they can trade him down the line. Right now he's cheap, young and filling a need. Why would you trade him now?

 

If the Sox stay in the hunt, they cetainly cannot trade Duran. He is a big part of their limited offense.

 

If they are 10 games out of the third wild card in July, then what?

 

Obviously they will try to move as many potential free agents as they can - Jansen, O'Neill, Martin, Pivetta. They probably won't be able to move them all, but they will probably try.

 

But if some team does make an intriguing offer for Duran, do you hold? We've seen controllable outfielders get some fairly impressive returns. i remember when Adam Eaton was traded on his team-friendly contract to the Nationals for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning. That's a franchise-altering return. If the Sox can get such a return, should they do it? The other option is to keep Duran for his last 3 seasons, which doesn't look like such a bad option either...

Edited May 21, 2024 by notin

[notin]

How does anyone know we would be selling high on Duran?

 

And if we are, why would anyone think their personal assesment of his value is superior to the professional scouting department of an entire MLB organization?

 

You don't go trading away young talent, not when you desperately lack that. Now, in a few years when guys like Anthony have broken into the bigs and the outfield gets crowded it might make a lot more sense to trade Duran, or someone else?

 

The entire premise of this thread is that StephCurry does not have any faith in Duran maintaining this level of play.

 

He may be right; he may be wrong. He's no saying his assessment is superior to the Sox scouts. Just that he is putting more faith in the pre-2024 version.

 

And if anyone does think this is as good as it gets, it is certainly a valid viewpoint to think Duran is a logical trade candidate if the Sox are out of contention by the deadline...

[Bellhorn04]

The entire premise of this thread is that StephCurry does not have any faith in Duran maintaining this level of play.

 

He may be right; he may be wrong. He's no saying his assessment is superior to the Sox scouts. Just that he is putting more faith in the pre-2024 version.

 

And if anyone does think this is as good as it gets, it is certainly a valid viewpoint to think Duran is a logical trade candidate if the Sox are out of contention by the deadline...

 

You can say the same about Houck and Crawford.

[notin]

You can say the same about Houck and Crawford.

 

You can. The primary reason I wouldn't is the Sox have better outfield depth than starting pitching depth...

[mvp 78]

If the Sox can stay within striking distance and actually decide to be buyers, Lugo is the prime sell high candidate right now...

 

Not sure his value is high enough to even net a middling reliever.

[mvp 78]

Even if it is not an ace per se, if the Sox can get a controllable SP, is he worth a deal?

 

With BTV going to a pay model, I don't know the values right now. But if you can get a 2-3 starter with 3 years of control, do you pull the trigger? Some suggestions - Mackenzie Gore? Alek Manoah? Nick Lodolo? Josiah Gray? Reid Detmers?

 

These are all pitchers who reach free agency one year prior to Duran, and are all varying degrees of good but none would be considered ace level today. Not sure what teams would actually want Jarren, however. But I am not asking if those teams would pull the trigger...

Easy no on Manoah, Gray and Detmers. Would have to think about Gore and Lodolo.

[mvp 78]

Then they can trade him down the line. Right now he's cheap, young and filling a need. Why would you trade him now?

 

I'm not advocating for it unless you are getting a really great return, which I don't think they'd get.

[moonslav59]

You can. The primary reason I wouldn't is the Sox have better outfield depth than starting pitching depth...

 

The other part of any Duran trade is what we get back and at what position.

 

Even if Duran does not decline or even gets better, the return guy could still end up with more value.

 

Most posters who talked about possibly trading Duran were thinking we'd package him for a very good SP'er.

 

I'm glad we didn't trade him, but I don't know what the return would have been. I expect a return would look better, on paper, now, but who knows.

 

I'd keep him.

[mvp 78]

The entire premise of this thread is that StephCurry does not have any faith in Duran maintaining this level of play.

 

He may be right; he may be wrong. He's no saying his assessment is superior to the Sox scouts. Just that he is putting more faith in the pre-2024 version.

 

And if anyone does think this is as good as it gets, it is certainly a valid viewpoint to think Duran is a logical trade candidate if the Sox are out of contention by the deadline...

 

This level? Probably not. A fairly valuable level that keeps him starting at LF/CF? Sure.

[Hugh2]

The entire premise of this thread is that StephCurry does not have any faith in Duran maintaining this level of play.

 

He may be right; he may be wrong. He's no saying his assessment is superior to the Sox scouts. Just that he is putting more faith in the pre-2024 version.

 

And if anyone does think this is as good as it gets, it is certainly a valid viewpoint to think Duran is a logical trade candidate if the Sox are out of contention by the deadline...

 

I get that. I'm just not entirely sure why anyone would think Duran is at peak value right now.

 

Right now, his 2024 is worse than his 2023, barely, and I'd actually make the argument that difference is marginal and his continued overall performance DOES make his value higher right now.

 

But for all we know anyone and everyone is at the highest their value will ever be moving forward. Why Duran?

 

I'm not opposed to hypothetically trading him one day. Maybe he's a really good chip to have if an Abreu/Rafaela/Anthony outfield looks optimal in a few years, and to CUrry's credit he said he's not advocating trading him right now. But a lot can happen between now and then. If I'm the Sox FO i'm not thinking about maximizing his value right now.

[mvp 78]

You can say the same about Houck and Crawford.

 

I see it making sense to do fire sales when you have guys with expiring deals. Now, the only like that are Refsnyder (team option), O'Neilll, Martin, Pivetta, Jansen. I wouldn't move the other guys unless you are bowled over with an offer. I would never say that a player is untouchable, but the trade would certainly have to be in the Sox favor to pull the trigger.

[mvp 78]

The other part of any Duran trade is what we get back and at what position.

 

Even if Duran does not decline or even gets better, the return guy could still end up with more value.

 

Most posters who talked about possibly trading Duran were thinking we'd package him for a very good SP'er.

 

I'm glad we didn't trade him, but I don't know what the return would have been. I expect a return would look better, on paper, now, but who knows.

 

I'd keep him.

 

Bloom was going to trade him for Seth Lugo and then give Lugo a 3 year extension.