Red Sox 2024 Spring Training

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I didn't even mention the impact investing in established pitching can have on how much the fanbase invests in watching its favorite team.

 

Some might call it ownership's obligation to fans -- but even the most cold-hearted owners can see how it may affect longterm profits... as interest and relevance dwindles.

 

(this spoken from an American Legion coach who knows his roster has about a 30-second attention span for instruction -- and these are boys who love the sport).

[Randy Red Sox]

Why?

 

Because maybe we can compete in '24 and '25.

 

I'm not saying your idea is not a good one. If we truly are ounting, then Monty makes little sense.

 

I'm not so sure we will sign "younger and better" pitchers, later. They cost more, and JH might not ever snap out of this funk.

 

I don't think Monty is going to get the years and dollars some think he will. We'll see.

 

Montgomery should NOT get the $$ and years he thinks he should get. He is far from an ace. If he was even a true #2 don't you think the NYY would have signed him ?

[moonslav59]

Buying younger and better players when the team is ready sounds great, but it appears currently the Red Sox are not a desirable club for free agents .

 

Of course we all prefer younger players, but with JH, it's mostly about cost.

 

IMO, we should have signed Yamo. Risky, yes, but his age was something you never see on the open market.

 

Monty is NOT old. He doesn't have 100,000 miles on his arm, although he does have a TJS history.

 

I'm talking about trying to win now AND in the next 2 years. We aren't trading top prospects, so I'd like Monty. I know JH is almost certainly saying no.

[Randy Red Sox]

1. Besides the already extended Bello, do we have a bunch of pitchers we can extend?

 

2. Those “younger and better” players you want to sign are not in the same position as Montgomery - running out of options and not carrying a qualifying offer. Not to mention other teams will be interested in them as well.

 

3. You’re supporting questionable circular logic. “We won’t be good until we spend on pitching, but we shouldn’t spend on pitching until we’re good.” Well, at least it’s a financially sound plan…

 

I think John Henry knows { because Breslow probably told him} that the Sox are NOT going to contend AGAIN this year so best NOT to spend the $$ on Montgomery who is about to be 32.

[moonslav59]

Montgomery should NOT get the $$ and years he thinks he should get. He is far from an ace. If he was even a true #2 don't you think the NYY would have signed him ?

 

How do you figure he may not even be a "true #2?" In just about every meaningful stat and metric he is top 15-50, maybe top 60 on 1 or two. There are 60 #1's and #2's in MLB.

 

I do agree he will not get the money or years he seeks. I think he'll get 3 years with a 4th year option and decent buy out. Maybe...

 

$75M/3 with a $20M 4th year and $5M buyout- making it $80M/3 or $95M/4.

 

He will not be old in year 3. He might even be very good in year 4.

 

Injury is always a worry, but we need to roll the dice on proven, good pitchers. Monty is one.

 

(I am nearly certain JH will not pay what he ends up getting.)

[moonslav59]

I think John Henry knows { because Breslow probably told him} that the Sox are NOT going to contend AGAIN this year so best NOT to spend the $$ on Montgomery who is about to be 32.

 

He just turned 31, less than 3 months ago. He will be 31 through all of year 1, 32 for year 2 and just 33 for year 3. 33 is not old.

 

His birthday is in December.

 

Here is the list of top pitchers in 2023. How far down the list do you have to go to find 1, 2 or 3 SP'ers under 31?

 

(I did not do the research, but I think it's #14 German Marquez. Castillo at #9 is 31, I believe.)

[Randy Red Sox]

He just turned 31, less than 3 months ago. He will be 31 through all of year 1, 32 for year 2 and just 33 for year 3. 33 is not old.

 

His birthday is in December.

 

Here is the list of top pitchers in 2023. How far down the list do you have to go to find 1, 2 or 3 SP'ers under 31?

 

(I did not do the research, but I think it's #14 German Marquez. Castillo at #9 is 31, I believe.)

 

he won 10 games last year and lost 11. I know wins are not the best stat to gauge a pitcher but he played on a pretty good team. He has been pretty much a .500 pitcher with a decent ERA. I am not saying he is not a good SP but I don't see him as a guy who is a game changer on a team like the Sox. I would rather wait till May 1st and sign Blake Snell who IMO is a better SP. If Snell was in the same position as Montgomery I think he would be signed by now.

[notin]

I didn't even mention the impact investing in established pitching can have on how much the fanbase invests in watching its favorite team.

 

Some might call it ownership's obligation to fans -- but even the most cold-hearted owners can see how it may affect longterm profits... as interest and relevance dwindles.

 

(this spoken from an American Legion coach who knows his roster has about a 30-second attention span for instruction -- and these are boys who love the sport).

 

As I have said repeated - free agency is about PR. It sends a message to the fanbase that money will not be a limiting factor on being competitive.

 

Henry is loudly stating that he wants it to be a factor…

[notin]

he won 10 games last year and lost 11. I know wins are not the best stat to gauge a pitcher but he played on a pretty good team. He has been pretty much a .500 pitcher with a decent ERA. I am not saying he is not a good SP but I don't see him as a guy who is a game changer on a team like the Sox. I would rather wait till May 1st and sign Blake Snell who IMO is a better SP. If Snell was in the same position as Montgomery I think he would be signed by now.

 

Montgomery started 32 games last year, 21 of which were for a LAST PLACE team. Can we stop pretending he spent the entire season on the Rangers?

 

Snell really isn’t better than Montgomery; Snell’s peaks are higher, but he spends most of his seasons in the valleys…

[moonslav59]

he won 10 games last year and lost 11. I know wins are not the best stat to gauge a pitcher but he played on a pretty good team. He has been pretty much a .500 pitcher with a decent ERA. I am not saying he is not a good SP but I don't see him as a guy who is a game changer on a team like the Sox. I would rather wait till May 1st and sign Blake Snell who IMO is a better SP. If Snell was in the same position as Montgomery I think he would be signed by now.

 

Sorry but wins and losses is never going to convince me he's not a #2. (Besides, he's top 60 in wins since 2021.)

 

I actually think he is a top 30 SP'er, right now, and I view that as a lower #1 SP'er.

 

BTW, 10 wins ties for 41st in MLB, which is still top 60 and worthy of the #2 status.There were 7 pitchers in the top 60 with just 9 wins.

 

When you say "game changer," do you think starting Monty over our current 5th starter (maybe Wink or Whitlock) is not a significant "change?"

 

Out of 150 SP'ers with 200+ IP since 2021, Monty places 41st in ERA at 3.48. 109 pitchers were worse- many much worse.

He's also 41st in FIP, which suggests his ERA is not lucky. (He's also 41st in ERA-, just ahead of Nate & Pablo Lopez.

 

He's 16th in fWAR due to being 10th in GS and 16th in IP.

 

He's 49th in WHIP. He's 47th in K/BB ratio. He's 53rd in Wins. All are top 60.

 

If you value fWAR, but use other stats, too, he is very close to top 30, which to me, is a #1. Lower #1, but still #1.

 

If you value ERA, wins and other stats more than fWAR, he still looks clearly around 40th to 50th, which is a mid level #2 SP'er, if you consider the 31st to 60th best pitchers as #2's.

 

He is way better than 4/5 level SP'ers and would make a significant difference to any team. He eats innings and gives you a 3.48 ERA.

 

Red Sox ERA Leaders since 2018: (200+ IP)

3.45 Sale

3.84 Price

4.01 Nate

4.12 ERod

4.39 Bello (our #1, now)

4.51 Piv etta (our #2 SP'er, now)

4.87 Porcello

 

Others under 200:

3.32 Wacha in 127 IP

4.17 Houck (198)

4.27 R Hill (124)

 

How can a 3.50 guy who gives you 175+ IP not be a big difference make on this staff? Please explain.

[Bellhorn04]

As I have said repeated - free agency is about PR. It sends a message to the fanbase that money will not be a limiting factor on being competitive.

 

You have said that repeatedly, but I don't think anyone has ever agreed with you.

[moonslav59]

Montgomery started 32 games last year, 21 of which were for a LAST PLACE team. Can we stop pretending he spent the entire season on the Rangers?

 

Yes, and he was 4-2 with Texas and 3-1 in the playoffs. That's 7-3 overall, almost all big stress games.

 

The team went 5-1 in his playoff starts.

[notin]

You have said that repeatedly, but I don't think anyone has ever agreed with you.

 

5Gold just said essentially the same thing. And it’s not my fault the rest of you want to be wrong

[moonslav59]

5Gold just said essentially the same thing. And it’s not my fault the rest of you want to be wrong

 

I think flashy FA signings do have significant PR value, but I do not think it is the major reason teams do it- not that you are saying this.

 

If their calculus is based on not thinking Monty is as good as his numbers have shown, I'm fine with passing on him, as long as the plan does involve spending big on a pitcher, next year, but I just doubt we spend big, then, too.

 

I do think a Monty signing would smooth much of the angst many Sox fans are feeling, right now, but many view him as a ho-hum decent pitcher, many feel he is still far from enough to make us playoff faves, and many would not be impressed all that much.

[moonslav59]

I'm really less and less impressed with DHam- not that I was ever more than just hopeful something would come from that awful JBJ trade.

 

I'm not high on Sogard, either, and soxpropsects projects him as riding the AAA bench to start the season.

 

Yorke might be our best hope for farm help at 2B, not counting E Valdez, of course.

 

Our OF might not look great, but I think we have a pretty solid 4 (Duran, O'Neill, Abreu & Rafaela) with Refsnyder as a good platoon bat at #5. All 5 have weaknesses or shortcomings in some areas, but together, I think we will be fine.

 

It's all about health at SS, 1B and 3B. The catcher position looks okay, to me, and still has upside. I think McGuire was dinged up, last year and is better than he looked in 2023- on D and O. I also think Wong might be a ble to put together a full season like he looked for the first 5 months of 2023 (.729 on Sept 9th.) He needs to work on a couple areas on D, but is very good at stopping the opps' run game. If we can get .710 from our catchers with plus D, we can be an overall plus, there.

 

The bench of Reyes/EValdez, Cron/Dalbec and Rafaela/Abreu is good enough.

 

It will come down to pitching, namely starters and of course, defense.

[moonslav59]

Bello went 5, today.

 

4 hits

1 ER

1 BB

5 Ks

 

(spring ERA: 4.85)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5Gold just said essentially the same thing. And it’s not my fault the rest of you want to be wrong

 

Signing a top free agent is definitely a positive part of PR because it generates additional excitement and hope during a time of year when fans can't actually see their favorites in action.

 

It also makes sense that some of that renewed enthusiasm would generate ticket sales (recalls past reports of increased season-ticket sales when a team has signed a big-time big-money guy to promise the promised land...)

[notin]

Signing a top free agent is definitely a positive part of PR because it generates additional excitement and hope during a time of year when fans can't actually see their favorites in action.

 

It also makes sense that some of that renewed enthusiasm would generate ticket sales (recalls past reports of increased season-ticket sales when a team has signed a big-time big-money guy to promise the promised land...)

 

Exactly!!

[jad]

Top free agents. You mean like the two Tylers?

[mvp 78]

I'm really less and less impressed with DHam- not that I was ever more than just hopeful something would come from that awful JBJ trade.

 

I'm not high on Sogard, either, and soxpropsects projects him as riding the AAA bench to start the season.

 

Yorke might be our best hope for farm help at 2B, not counting E Valdez, of course.

 

Our OF might not look great, but I think we have a pretty solid 4 (Duran, O'Neill, Abreu & Rafaela) with Refsnyder as a good platoon bat at #5. All 5 have weaknesses or shortcomings in some areas, but together, I think we will be fine.

 

It's all about health at SS, 1B and 3B. The catcher position looks okay, to me, and still has upside. I think McGuire was dinged up, last year and is better than he looked in 2023- on D and O. I also think Wong might be a ble to put together a full season like he looked for the first 5 months of 2023 (.729 on Sept 9th.) He needs to work on a couple areas on D, but is very good at stopping the opps' run game. If we can get .710 from our catchers with plus D, we can be an overall plus, there.

 

The bench of Reyes/EValdez, Cron/Dalbec and Rafaela/Abreu is good enough.

 

It will come down to pitching, namely starters and of course, defense.

 

It's not that Sogard rides the bench, just that he's a super UTIL guy and that's how he'll be used. It's also his best path to MLB. If he just played SS everyday, he would probably not be really considered for BOS in any capacity. However, if he can play all over the field, he'll be able to find a spot much more easily.

 

Hamilton needs more time at 2B and OF, but his bat just doesn't play.

 

Yorke really doesn't show much at all to me. Not being able to OPS 800 in AA for a bat first guy with mediocre defense at 2B and not enough arm for 3B isn't ideal.

 

If Yorke is moved to a different club, maybe he has a better long term outlook, but IDK. My guess is that Sogard is more likely to carve out a role on this team than Yorke or Hamilton.

[moonslav59]

It's not that Sogard rides the bench, just that he's a super UTIL guy and that's how he'll be used. It's also his best path to MLB. If he just played SS everyday, he would probably not be really considered for BOS in any capacity. However, if he can play all over the field, he'll be able to find a spot much more easily.

 

Hamilton needs more time at 2B and OF, but his bat just doesn't play.

 

Yorke really doesn't show much at all to me. Not being able to OPS 800 in AA for a bat first guy with mediocre defense at 2B and not enough arm for 3B isn't ideal.

 

If Yorke is moved to a different club, maybe he has a better long term outlook, but IDK. My guess is that Sogard is more likely to carve out a role on this team than Yorke or Hamilton.

 

I don't disagree.

 

By me saying I think Yorke has the best 2024 potential to be impactful out of our MLB ready MI minor leaguers, is not saying he is very good or even very promising.

 

I do think I prefer him on our 40 over DHam and Sogard, but trading him makes sense, too.

[mvp 78]

I don't disagree.

 

By me saying I think Yorke has the best 2024 potential to be impactful out of our MLB ready MI minor leaguers, is not saying he is very good or even very promising.

 

I do think I prefer him on our 40 over DHam and Sogard, but trading him makes sense, too.

 

Hamilton is DFA'able. I think Sogard could have an impact this year. I really don't know what Yorke can do. I need to see something out of him in AAA. I know they've been trying him out in LF in ST. Has he had any in game time there?

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Cora said the Sox want to see Yorke getting back to being an offensive-minded middle infielder. However, he praised his work at 2B - while also saying he moves well enough to likely get exposure to LF this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@alexspeier

Cora said the Sox want to see Yorke getting back to being an offensive-minded middle infielder. However, he praised his work at 2B - while also saying he moves well enough to likely get exposure to LF this year.

 

It is curious that the Eastern League 2023 defensive second baseman of the year is being asked to play outfield...

 

Can't blame Bloom on this one -- any St. Louis fans seeing regulars being played out of position all over the field this spring?

[mvp 78]

It is curious that the Eastern League 2023 defensive second baseman of the year is being asked to play outfield...

 

Can't blame Bloom on this one -- any St. Louis fans seeing regulars being played out of position all over the field this spring?

 

He's not even an average 2B. He's worked on it and is better than what they initially projected, but it's not great. He's definitely much better than Valdez.

[moonslav59]

He's not even an average 2B. He's worked on it and is better than what they initially projected, but it's not great. He's definitely much better than Valdez.

 

How does the Eastern League choose their Defensive Players of the Year, if this guy is just average?

[mvp 78]

How does the Eastern League choose their Defensive Players of the Year, if this guy is just average?

 

It was a survey done by Baseball America of Eastern League managers as to who had the best tools. Yorke won for defensive tools at 2b. Mayer won for SS and Meidroth won for 3B.

[mvp 78]

@SmittyOnMLB

Kenley Jansen won't pitch for the Red Sox on Monday as planned. Lower back tightness. Red Sox are being safe (don't think it's a big deal) and he might pitch tomorrow. He's still on track for Opening Day.

 

Stop me if you think you've heard this one before.

[moonslav59]

It was a survey done by Baseball America of Eastern League managers as to who had the best tools. Yorke won for defensive tools at 2b. Mayer won for SS and Meidroth won for 3B.

 

Either the whole league is below avg, or Yorke is above AVG, unless their methods suck.

[mvp 78]

Either the whole league is below avg, or Yorke is above AVG, unless their methods suck.

 

If he was above average, why are they flirting with pushing him to LF?