2024 Prospects

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Keith Law's midseason Top 60 prospects

2. Marcelo Mayer

19. Kyle Teel

21. Roman Anthony

38. Braden Montgomery

46. Kristian Campbell

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@redsoxstats

Keith Law's midseason Top 60 prospects

2. Marcelo Mayer

19. Kyle Teel

21. Roman Anthony

38. Braden Montgomery

46. Kristian Campbell

 

Wonder how many players who were drafted this month with two good ankles are ranked ahead of Monty.

[notin]

@redsoxstats

Keith Law's midseason Top 60 prospects

2. Marcelo Mayer

19. Kyle Teel

21. Roman Anthony

38. Braden Montgomery

46. Kristian Campbell

 

Teel ahead of Anthony? That’s a new perspective..

[mvp 78]

Teel ahead of Anthony? That’s a new perspective..

 

Law believes Teel is MLB ready today.

[mvp 78]

Someone asked Keith Law why Yorke isn't a top 100 prospect.

 

@keithlaw

Let's see. It's not a list of the best performances in the minors, but of the best prospects. OPS and AVG are lousy measures of a hitter. You picked a tiny AAA sample and ignored what he did in AA. Being a first-rounder is irrelevant now. Defense and position matter. OK?

[mvp 78]

Laws views on analytics:

 

@keithlaw

For major-leaguers, I think it's (wOBA) extremely useful. both wOBA and wRC+ weight the components accurately enough to get a solid picture of the value of a player's offense. For prospects, though, I don't like any of those overall rate stats because they aren't predictive.

[moonslav59]

Teel ahead of Anthony? That’s a new perspective..

 

19 and 21 are virtually tied.

 

Catchers have more value, and every indication is that Teel will stick as a catcher.

 

As MVP points out, Teel is ML ready, now (apparently.)

[Larry Cook]

Law believes Teel is MLB ready today.

 

Wow! That’s a bold statement. But I think teel can hit major league pitching now too! I also think his defense is actually decent, not great though! however others think he needs more work on defense. I guess the games I watched, he had good defensive games and I missed the subpar defensive games! At the end of the day, bres-slow has not promoted teel yet, so there must be some reason!

[moonslav59]

Laws views on analytics:

 

@keithlaw

For major-leaguers, I think it's (wOBA) extremely useful. both wOBA and wRC+ weight the components accurately enough to get a solid picture of the value of a player's offense. For prospects, though, I don't like any of those overall rate stats because they aren't predictive.

 

Very well put.

 

The same could be said about Lugo and Meidroth.

 

This does not mean these guys won't every be good MLB players, but only that we cannot use their OPS, OBP and other numbers to predict MLB success. Plus, Lugo and Yorke have positional issues and defensive concerns. Meidroth's D, especially at 2B is kind of questionable, but he should be okay to decent.

[mvp 78]

19 and 21 are virtually tied.

 

Catchers have more value, and every indication is that Teel will stick as a catcher.

 

As MVP points out, Teel is ML ready, now (apparently.)

 

MLB ready per Keith Law.

[mvp 78]

Wow! That’s a bold statement. But I think teel can hit major league pitching now too! I also think his defense is actually decent, not great though! however others think he needs more work on defense. I guess the games I watched, he had good defensive games and I missed the subpar defensive games! At the end of the day, bres-slow has not promoted teel yet, so there must be some reason!

 

I don't believe that people think his defense is currently subpar, just that he currently still has work to do. Why bring up a guy with bad habits now, when you can train out the bad habits before he's worried about hitting MLB pitchers too.

[moonslav59]

I don't believe that people think his defense is currently subpar, just that he currently still has work to do. Why bring up a guy with bad habits now, when you can train out the bad habits before he's worried about hitting MLB pitchers too.

 

Plus, with how well Wong is doing, the need is not really there.

 

Also, why start his service time clock and lose a prime year (or two) of control?

[mvp 78]

Plus, with how well Wong is doing, the need is not really there.

 

Also, why start his service time clock and lose a prime year (or two) of control?

 

They are probably going to super two all three of these guys.

[moonslav59]

They are probably going to super two all three of these guys.

 

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

Gambrel pitched well, tonight:

6IP 2H 0ER 1BB 4K

Yorke 1-3 w BB

Dalbec 2-4 w HR

 

POR won in 10:

Campbell 3-4 w BB

Teel 3-5

Anthony 2-5 w 3 RBI

[sk7326]

Some of the speficis from Law

 

Mayer - the power and hard contact have continued, even knowing he is having issues with sliders down and in. Still looks like a plus defender at SS. While you should not expect him in Boston this year, it's not out of the question either.

Teel - not a ton of plus tools but solid or better across the board, he could play in Boston now

Anthony - Pitchers know he has trouble with offspeed stuff and are crushing him with it. But he is also just 20 in AA - so there is plenty of time to figure it out.

Montgomery - if he had two healthy ankles, the Sox don't get him. Looks like a true switch hitter. Solid defense in RF, and more growth potential than you'd expect from a 21 year old SEC player.

Campbell - arguably the biggest breakout of the minors in MLB. He is NOT going to maintain a .466 BABIP, but the hand-eye coordination is legit and he has been able to get to more game power than he showed in college.

[mvp 78]

Some of the speficis from Law

 

Mayer - the power and hard contact have continued, even knowing he is having issues with sliders down and in. Still looks like a plus defender at SS. While you should not expect him in Boston this year, it's not out of the question either.

Teel - not a ton of plus tools but solid or better across the board, he could play in Boston now

Anthony - Pitchers know he has trouble with offspeed stuff and are crushing him with it. But he is also just 20 in AA - so there is plenty of time to figure it out.

Montgomery - if he had two healthy ankles, the Sox don't get him. Looks like a true switch hitter. Solid defense in RF, and more growth potential than you'd expect from a 21 year old SEC player.

Campbell - arguably the biggest breakout of the minors in MLB. He is NOT going to maintain a .466 BABIP, but the hand-eye coordination is legit and he has been able to get to more game power than he showed in college.

 

Thank you.

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Excellent start by Yermain Ruiz of the DSL Red Sox Red today- 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K. The 18-year-old righty has a 1.10 ERA over 32.2 IP with 30 K/12 BB, a 0.80 WHIP and a .130 OBA. He was signed for a $10,000 bonus back in August 2023.

[mvp 78]

@RedSoxPlayerDev

Juan Valera hasn't allowed a hit or run in his last 13 IP!

 

In his Salem debut, he finished with 4IP, 0H, 0ER, 2BB, 3K

[moonslav59]

@RedSoxPlayerDev

Juan Valera hasn't allowed a hit or run in his last 13 IP!

 

In his Salem debut, he finished with 4IP, 0H, 0ER, 2BB, 3K

 

Not bad for a $45K IFA signing bonus given by Bloom in 2023.

[moonslav59]

Some ERAs & WHIP in the lower minors:

 

DSL-Blue

0.00 D Reyes 0.63 (4 GS)

RP

1.96 E Carta 0.91 (11 gsm/23 IP)

2.01 Galvan 1.25 (11 gms 22 IP)

 

DSL-Red

1.10 Ruiz 0.80

1.73 Payano 0.85 (2 gms as RP)

3.08 Frias 1.33

3.60 Morillo 1.53

RP: Bonaci 2.70/0.90 in 10 games/17 IP

 

FCL:

1.79 Valera 0.77 (not counting 0.00 in 4IP w Salem)

 

 

Salem

2.03 Ingrassia 0.99 (9 GS and 9 as RP)

2.16 Wehunt 1.05 (8 GS)

2.51 E R-C 1.18 (13 GS)

2.52 Paez 1.25 (5 GS/ 2RP)

3.43 Portes 1.52 (5GS/2RP)

RP: 2.64 Sansone 0.92 (13 gms and 48 IP is a lot for a RP)

 

Greenville:

3.50 Mullins 1.28 (14 GS)

3.72 Early 1.14 (15 GS)

Edited July 26, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Speaking of pitching on the farm:

 

AA: Early 5IP 1H 0E 2BB 5K

POR won 3-0 as the team allowed just 3 Hits

Campbell 2-4, Teel 1-3 w BB, Anthony 0-3 w BB, McDonogh 3-4 w HR)

 

A+: Monegro 5IP 4H 0ER 1BB 5K

GRE won 10-0 (6 hitter)

Bleis 2-4 w HR & BB. GRE scored 10 on 5 hits and 11 BBs!

 

A-: Salem lost 9-3 as Arias homered (2-3 w BB) His OPS at SAL is 1.783.

 

DSL: Ruiz 6IP 2H 0ER 0BB 9Ks

(Team 4 hitter ans 1ER allowed.)

[Larry Cook]

Speaking of pitching on the farm:

 

AA: Early 5IP 1H 0E 2BB 5K

POR won 3-0 as the team allowed just 3 Hits

Campbell 2-4, Teel 1-3 w BB, Anthony 0-3 w BB, McDonogh 3-4 w HR)

 

A+: Monegro 5IP 4H 0ER 1BB 5K

GRE won 10-0 (6 hitter)

Bleis 2-4 w HR & BB. GRE scored 10 on 5 hits and 11 BBs!

 

A-: Salem lost 9-3 as Arias homered (2-3 w BB) His OPS at SAL is 1.783.

 

DSL: Ruiz 6IP 2H 0ER 0BB 9Ks

(Team 4 hitter ans 1ER allowed.)

 

I think arias booted a ball that resulted in 3 unearned runs

[moonslav59]

I think arias booted a ball that resulted in 3 unearned runs

 

Can we expect anything else?

[moonslav59]

I'm really loving the progress so many of our lower prospects are showing, even some pitchers!

 

I expect to see some pitchers jump into the top 20 and 30.

 

Early & Dobbins into the top 20. (Maybe Wikelman moves below 20th.)

 

Maybe Valera, Ruiz, Dean and Wehunt jump into or get close to top 30.

 

OPS Against 30+ IP, unless noted:

.360 D Reyes (16 IP) DSL

.384 Valera FCL/Salem

.402 Y Ruiz DSL

.526 Dean SAL

.538 Wehunt SAL/GRE

.545 Portes FCL/SAL

.548 Ingrassia SAL

.553 Kirwin SAL

.557 E R-C SAL/GRE

.593 Penrod POR/WOR

.596 J Paez SAL/GRE

 

Notables:

.624 Dobbins POR

.632 Luetge WOR

.644 Mullins GRE

.675 Wikelman POR

.683 I Coffey POR

.684 Rogers GRE

.685 Bastardo POR

.713 Gambrell WOR

.789 Sandlin GRE

.815 Fitts WOR

 

[moonslav59]

More good pitching on the farm:

 

GRE won 5-1 with Paez 5IP 5H 1ER 1BB 4K and Dean 4IP 1H 0ER 2BB 7K

Castro homered (.802)

 

SAL is tied 3-3 with Cohen 5.2IP 2H 1ER 1BB 5K

 

WOO up 6-4 with Fitts 5IP 5H 2ER 1BB 2K

Meidroth on fire at 3-3 w HR and BB (.827.)

 

POR up 3-0 with Dobbins going 3 IP with the unmentionable.

Mayer is playing (1-2)

 

DSL Red had 9 hits and 9 BBs and lost 14-10. They won game two 4-2.

 

DSL Blue won 4-1 and had a 2 hitter. (Medina in relief with 4 no hit IP)

[moonslav59]

Sox sign 13 of 20 draft picks:

3. Brandon Neely $700K (slot $879)

4. Zach Ehrhard $500K ($631)

5. Brandon Clarke $400K ($458)

6. Blake Aita $300K ($351)

7. Will Turner $250K ($275)

9. Hudson White $185K ($195)

14. A Bouchard $150K

15. J Gartrell $150K

16. G Kilander $50K

17. Yan Cruz $150K

18. C Tolbert $50K

19. D Ortiz $150K

20. B Hansen $50K

 

It looks like the saved some cash (about $480K) to overpay a slot (Carson?)

Non-drafted Calvin Bickerstaff

 

Left to sign:

1. Montgomery ($5.5M slot)

2. Tolle ($1.9M)

8. Carson ($220K)

11. Brooks

12. Tygart

13. Sprague

 

 

[moonslav59]

Meidroth ended up 4-5 w HR & BB (.831)

 

POR won by shutout.

Dobbins 5 IP no hitter (1 BB)

Mayer played! (1-4)

Anthony 1-3 w BB

[Larry Cook]

Meidroth ended up 4-5 w HR & BB (.831)

 

POR won by shutout.

Dobbins 5 IP no hitter (1 BB)

Mayer played! (1-4)

Anthony 1-3 w BB

 

Meidroth deserve a shot yet????

[moonslav59]

Meidroth deserve a shot yet????

 

I don't disagree, but it's not all about minor league OPS.

 

If it was, Kavadas has been better (.983.)

So has Mayer (.852) and Campbell (1.023).

Lugo (.959) and Gasper (.951).

Westbrook has even been better (.852)

.851 Dalbec

.849 Teel