2024 Prospects

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

6.) perales - 2nd best stuff in the system (winkleman) how does he respond to surgery? Should be a mid rotation starter by 2026.

12.) fitts - a tale of two pitchers. When the velocity is up, mid rotation starter! When the velocity is down, batting practice pitcher 
14.) Sandlin - mediocre stuff with a propensity to throw meatballs. 
15.) tolle - mediocre stuff at TCU. 
17.)monegro - mediocre stuff but plays up when command and control is good.

18.) dobbins - decent to good stuff. Not sure why he gets no love. 
19.) ERC - mediocre stuff. 
20.) valera - 3rd best stuff in the system. 
21.) cason - unknown. TBD

22.) Guerrero - really good stuff. Command and control is seriously lacking 

 

It may come down to us needing many of these guys to see an uptick in velo or spin rate or whatever, to make a jump in the rankings, but I am encouraged by the number of pitchers we have in our system that are poised to make a jump. Some don't need a big jump. Many will not improve. Some will look worse, next year.

I'm usually not one to be happy about quantity over quality, but I think our quantity has enough quality to keep the hope alive.

Perales already has been recognized as "having the stuff" needed. As with too many Sox pitchers, it comes down to health and role assigned.

This group may not need a big jump: Priester (not a prospect,) Fitts, Monegro, Tolle, Sandlin, E R-C, Dobbins, Valera, D Reyes, Neely, Ingrassia

These guys need to fix something, bigly or may settle into a RP role: Penrod, Wikelman, Early, Mullins, Paez, Wehunt, Bastardo, Clarke, Tygarrt, Dean, Carlson and Mata. While this second group does not look impressive, one-by-one, there are 12 listed, and the hope that 2-3 might jump, next year is not unrealistic.

So, we can hope Perales gets healthy and one or two from Fitts, Priester or Dobbins can help in 2024. Add maybe 3-4 from the other 8 on the first group and 2-3 from the second group, and maybe we see 7-10 pitchers take meaningful jumps in 2025. Even if it's just 4-6 that take big jumps, that might be enough. 3-4 real big jumps may work even better.

I might be overly optimistic. I get that way with our prospects, but I do think there is a lot of hope in our system, and more so than we've had in a long time.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I might be overly optimistic. I get that way with our prospects, but I do think there is a lot of hope in our system, and more so than we've had in a long time.

hope is never a good strategy! 
 

mata has a chance to contribute. He has great stuff but winkleman like command and control!!!  

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

 

It's not a strategy.  I am recommending we add 3-4 solid pitchers to our staff- maybe even 5, which is more than many suggest.

I have always advocated quality over quantity as a "strategy," so this is not my chosen method. 

I am just pointing out that the quantity of pitching prospects showing some "hope" is high that I think it's been in a very long time, and that this is not a bad thing. I am also aware that guys like Houck and Crawford were once considered "hopes" more than sure bet quality pitching prospects. Back then, we have very little quality and quantity, and I am seeing improvement, even if just incremental.

Soxprospects.com top ranked pitchers:

NOV '22: 6 Mata, 8 Walter, 10 Perales, 12 Wikelman, 13 Murphy, 19 E R-C, 22 Seabold, 23 Ward, 25 German, 26 Drohan, 27 Kelly

NOV '20: 3 Mata, 7 Houck, 8 Ward, 9 Seabold, 10 Aldo Ramirez, 11 Song, 12 Groome, 18 Murphy

NOV '18: 3 Groome, 5 DHern, 7 Mata, 10 Feltman, 12 Shawaryn, 16 Lakins

NOV '16: 4 Groome, 5 Kopech, 8 Johnson, 16 Raudea, 17 TBall, 19 Shawaryn

NOV '14: 2 Owens, 5 ERod, 6 Johnson, 7 Barnes, 9 Ranaudo, 11 TBall, 14 Kopech, 19 Stanki

NOV '12: 2 Barnes, 4 Webster,, 8 Owens, 10 D Britton, 11 Workman, 13 Johnson, 14 A Wilson, 15 Ranaudo, 19 Pimental, 20 P Light

Granted, better than crap can still be crap or pretty crappy, but how quickly do you think a farm pitching staff can be significantly improved?

I think the in-home pitchers we have added over the last 5 years are better than the previous 5+ yrs: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Bello, Wink, Salten and others.

I think the ML ready or near ML ready pitching prospects are better now than in the last 10+ years: Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod, Sandlin and others like Wikelman/Gambrell/Rogers/Mata/Murphy/Hoppe/I Coffey.

I think the pitching pipeline that is more than 1.5 years away is also better or more promising than it has been in over 10 years: Perales, Monegro, Tolle, E R-C, Valera, Cason, Early, Mullins, Paez, D Reyes, Neely, Wehunt, Bastardo, Clarke, Tygart, Dean,  Carlson, 

I, too, wish we had a better pitching pipeline but it is better or improving in all 3 areas I broke down, and I think Brez and Bailey are rightly focusing on it. In less than a year, they added Fitts, Priester, Slaten, Sandlin, Judice and way more pitchers drafted than years beforehand.

Draft slots on pitchers:

2024: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 (paid 3rd biggest bonus) 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18 & 20 (6 in top 10 and 11 in top 16)

2023: 4, 5 (after 2 comp picks in 4th) 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 16, 1, 20 (4 in top 10 and 7 in top 16)

2022: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20 (6 in top 10 and 10 in 16)

2021: 4 in top 10 and  6 in 16

2020: #3 and #4 out of 4 losts total.

2019: 5 in 10 & 9 in 16

2018: 3 in 10 (6, 7 & 8) and 7 in 16

2017: 5 in 10 and 8 in 16. This was the last year, we seemed to focus highly on pitching: 1B Kopech, 3 Cosart, 4 McAvoy, 7 Reilly, 9 Steen. I still think 2024 tops 2017.

[Hugh2]

I don’t full Agree Moon.  I think the pitching in our system is marginally better.

we have a few guys with upside, but we e had plenty of those fail over the years.  

i also think draft slots on pitchers in largely meaningless.  It’s more about the money, most of these guys drafted are nothing more than filling out a milb roster.  Great if they pop, but right now the Sox don’t really have any talent that has real starter upside other than Preister/Sandlin/Perales. And those guys all have serious questions.

i think the Sox have moved in the right direction the last year, but they’re nowhere near the point of turning out mlb starting caliber pitching and probably won’t be for a few years if they started doing everything right this year

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t full Agree Moon.  I think the pitching in our system is marginally better.

we have a few guys with upside, but we e had plenty of those fail over the years.  

i also think draft slots on pitchers in largely meaningless.  It’s more about the money, most of these guys drafted are nothing more than filling out a milb roster.  Great if they pop, but right now the Sox don’t really have any talent that has real starter upside other than Preister/Sandlin/Perales. And those guys all have serious questions.

i think the Sox have moved in the right direction the last year, but they’re nowhere near the point of turning out mlb starting caliber pitching and probably won’t be for a few years if they started doing everything right this year

I conceded the improvement might just be "incremental" and that better than crap cans still be crappy, but how quickly can a new management team turn around a whole system?

My point was that the farm additions of Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Slaten and Wink were better than the previous 5 or more years.

The incoming farm infusion for the end of 2024 and into the start of 2026, looks better than it has looked in many years (Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Sandlin, Guerrero and maybe a couple others.)

The longer range pitchers are almost total speculation, but we have more promising pitchers than we have in this group for maybe 10 years.

I'm fine with calling it incremental. I'm first in line to say we need vast improvement. I am encouraged by drafting more pitchers and drafting them higher than past years as a sign we are trying, anyway.

After drafting Montgomery, who almost everyone thinks was a lock-solid pick, we spent our bonus money as such:

$2.0M Tolle (2nd pick)

$1.25M Cason (8th pick)

$700K Neely (3rd)

$400K  Clarke (5th)

$300K Aita (6th)

That's ober $4.6M on pitchers 2 through 8 picks and just $750K on non pitchers (Ehrhard 4th and Turner 7th)

That looks like s hift, to me. It may not work, but the effort looks pretty clear, to me. (Now, if Cason turns out to not be a pitcher, the numbers shift to $2M for batters and $2.4 for pitchers.)

 

 

[Larry Cook]

There is no doubt hang’em Chaim caused the pitching issues we face now. 
but Bres-slow seems reluctant to address it via free agency 

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

There is no doubt hang’em Chaim caused the pitching issues we face now. 
but Bres-slow seems reluctant to address it via free agency 

He did not help, but this all started when we let Kimbrel & Kelly go with no replacements, and the budget, especially on big ticket pitchers was slashed and slashed.

IMO, there is no doubt JH caused the pitching issues we face now.

Also, here are some interesting numbers that cast doubt on the claims that are pitching is getting worse:

Team fWAR Pitching by year: since 2017:

23.2 '17

18.5 '18

16.5 '19 (a massive 3 yr decline of 6.7)

20.4 '21 (under Bloom was better than '18 & '19)

10.1 '22 (an unforgivable and horrible cliff dive by JH & BLOOM)

13.7 '23

13.9 '24 (projected)

So, a 6.7 decline in DD's last 3 yrs and a 2.8 decline in Bloom's 4 yrs (16.5 to 13.7 in 2023.)

Now, we got so horrible in 2020 (0.1) and then very good in 2021, that the drop from 2021 to 2024 is almost as bad as DD's 3 year drop. (20.4 to 13.9 under Brez, or a 6.5 drop.)

One can see it as cherry-picking to point out our improvement since the terrible 2022 season (10.1 to 13.9 and a 3.8 fWAR gain.)

I also want to point to defense NOT pitching. SIERA is a metric used to like FIP, or in other words, taking the defense out of the ERA.

3.77 2017

3.72 2018 (Best in 10 yrs)

4.24 2019 (Restgate & no K & K)

4.58 Covid year (Year 1  under Bloom: No Sale or ERod)

Now watch...

4.00 '21 (Bloom's second year and better than 2019- Bloom.)

3.98 '22 (So, maybe not so bad pitching, afterall- Bloom.)

4.10 '23 (got worse, but still better than '19-Bloom)

3.94 '24 (best year since 2018- BREZ)

I gotta think the 3.94 shows improvement, but when you see the drop off over the last 4 months, that becomes questionable.

2024's ERA- of 96 is the best since 2018. (2019 was 97 and 2023 was 100.) Another stat that shows improvement,

Please don't take this to mean I am content with our pitching "improvement." I'm not at all. I'm only highlighting how the defense is a major cause of our decline in run prevention, while our pitching needed to be improved by way more than it was.

I'm hopeful that a healthy Story can make a big improvement in 2025, as he would also push Rafaela to more playing time in CF (or even 2B.) I think our 2B defense will improve with Campbell and DHam taking over the most innings on D from E Valdez- one of the worst defensive 2Bman I have ever seen. C, 3B and 1B need improvement, bigtime, but I doubt we add anyone or shift these guys around to new positions in 2025.

 

1

[moonslav59]

Priester went just 3.1 IP, today with Woo.  63 pitches. 2H, 2ER, 3BB, 2K. It's the bottom of the 9th and Woo has 3 hits. Anthony is 0-2 w 2BB. Grissom 1-3.  No Teel or Campbell.

POR lost 4-0, but Blden pitched well: 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 2BB, 6K. The bats got 3 hits: Hickey, Jordan & Jh Garica. Hickey & Garcia also drew a BB.

[Larry Cook]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Priester went just 3.1 IP, today with Woo.  63 pitches. 2H, 2ER, 3BB, 2K. It's the bottom of the 9th and Woo has 3 hits. Anthony is 0-2 w 2BB. Grissom 1-3.  No Teel or Campbell.

POR lost 4-0, but Blden pitched well: 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 2BB, 6K. The bats got 3 hits: Hickey, Jordan & Jh Garica. Hickey & Garcia also drew a BB.

Priester is a work in progress for 2025 

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Priester is a work in progress for 2025 

That he is. It was a risky trade, but even if Yorke truns out to be good, he may never have gotten a chance with the Sox and a middle infield of Story, Mayer, Campbell, DHam, Grissom, and later Arias and others.

I hope we see more trades like this one.

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That he is. It was a risky trade, but 

I hope we see more trades like this one.

High risk high reward trades. 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

High risk high reward trades. 

I'm not sure how high a risk of giving up Yorke was.

I guess they said the same about Bagwell.

I just saw too many middle infielders ahead of Yorke.

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure how high a risk of giving up Yorke was.

I guess they said the same about Bagwell.

I just saw too many middle infielders ahead of Yorke.

Didn’t we have extra infielders when we unloaded bagwell????

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Didn’t we have extra infielders when we unloaded bagwell????

That was my point, yes. They also did not have the idea that Bagwell could play 1B, not 3B, too.  Derrrr....

[moonslav59]

The Sea Dogs season is over.

Meidroth had a fitting walk off walk for Woo, yesterday.

[Larry Cook]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sea Dogs season is over.

Meidroth had a fitting walk off walk for Woo, yesterday.

I hope Meidroth gets an opportunity in training camp. He can flat out get on base 

[moonslav59]

From soxprospects.com...

 

Portland season ends

The Sea Dogs season ended on Sunday as they finished 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot. Their final roster can be found on our Rosters page. Blake Wehunt did get a cup of coffee with Portland during its final week, and he allowed five runs over five innings in a start on Wednesday. 

 

Portland announced their team awards, with Anthony being named the team's MVP. Isaac Coffey won the Pitcher of the Year award, Campbell was named the Defensive Player of the Year, and Elih Marrero won the Charlie Eshbach-Citizen of the Year award. 

[Larry Cook]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

From soxprospects.com...

 

Portland season ends

The Sea Dogs season ended on Sunday as they finished 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot. Their final roster can be found on our Rosters page. Blake Wehunt did get a cup of coffee with Portland during its final week, and he allowed five runs over five innings in a start on Wednesday. 

 

Portland announced their team awards, with Anthony being named the team's MVP. Isaac Coffey won the Pitcher of the Year award, Campbell was named the Defensive Player of the Year, and Elih Marrero won the Charlie Eshbach-Citizen of the Year award. 

The 2024 team was very impressive and sent a lot of talent to Worcester this year. I think the 2025 team has a chance to have better pitching than the 2024 team 

[mvp 78]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That was my point, yes. They also did not have the idea that Bagwell could play 1B, not 3B, too.  Derrrr....

Bagwell was behind Cooper and Mo. He was also traded for a middle reliever that was gone after one season. If they traded him for a young arm, the trade wouldn't be so horrible even if it didn't work out. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The 2024 team was very impressive and sent a lot of talent to Worcester this year. I think the 2025 team has a chance to have better pitching than the 2024 team 

At some point:

Monegro

Paez

Elmer

Early

Wehunt

I think Sandlin and Wikelman will be in WOO to start the season. 

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com projects these farm pitching rotations for the start of 2025:

(With Fitts, Preister, Guerrero and Penrod in the big club.)

Woo: Dobbins, Gambrell, Drohan, I Coffey, Wikelman, Van Belle

Por: Sandlin, Early, Wehunt, Uberstine, Mullins, Monegro

Gre: E. Rod, Paez, Tolle, Neely, Dean, Duffy

Sal: Valera, Ehrlicher, Judice, Clarke, Tygart, Cason

I could see Dandlin, Early and maybe Mullings going to AAA in 2025. Maybe E R-C gets a look at AA. I think Paez will to get that call-up.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Anthony had a nice game tonight! Seems like he gets things started and people feed off of him. And he is so young for triple A 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Anthony had a nice game tonight! Seems like he gets things started and people feed off of him. And he is so young for triple A 

It really is amazing!

He's up to .949, now at AAA!

[moonslav59]

Anthony with another good night. 1-3 w 2B, BB and 2 rbi.

Teel 2-4, but woe on his D (see below.)

Dobbins has to be raising some eyebrows: 5 IP, 2H, 0ER, 2BB, 6K (2.61 ERA)

How is this for a way to lose the game 4-3 by allowing 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th:

HBP then Passed Ball (Teel)

Single

Fielder's choice with dropped catch by Dalbec (SS)

Batter reaches on catcher interference (Teel) Loads the bases.

Strike out (2nd out)

Passed Ball (Teel) winning run scores.

Yikes, 2 passed balls and a catcher interference in one inning!

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Anthony with another good night. 1-3 w 2B, BB and 2 rbi.

Teel 2-4, but woe on his D (see below.)

Dobbins has to be raising some eyebrows: 5 IP, 2H, 0ER, 2BB, 6K (2.61 ERA)

How is this for a way to lose the game 4-3 by allowing 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th:

HBP then Passed Ball (Teel)

Single

Fielder's choice with dropped catch by Dalbec (SS)

Batter reaches on catcher interference (Teel) Loads the bases.

Strike out (2nd out)

Passed Ball (Teel) winning run scores.

Yikes, 2 passed balls and a catcher interference in one inning!

Poor teel, what a nightmare!!! And dobbins pitched a whale of a gene 

[moonslav59]

Sox Pitchers on the Farm with 98+ IP/ OPS Against:

.611 Dobbins (before tonight) AA/AAA

.624 Cohen (Salem)

.632 Early (A+/AA)

.642 Duffy (Salem)

.670 I Coffey (AA)

 

75-97 IP

.552 Dean A-/A+

.580 E R-c A-/A+

.596 Monegro FCL/A+

.597 Wehunt  3 teams

.619 Wikelman AA

.674 Mullins A+

.675 Paez A-/A+

 

Other Notables:

.411 Valera 63 IP FCL/A-

.506 Y Ruiz 46 IP DSL

.529 Ingrassia 58 IP A-

[Larry Cook]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox Pitchers on the Farm with 98+ IP/ OPS Against:

.611 Dobbins (before tonight) AA/AAA

.624 Cohen (Salem)

.632 Early (A+/AA)

.642 Duffy (Salem)

.670 I Coffey (AA)

 

75-97 IP

.552 Dean A-/A+

.580 E R-c A-/A+

.596 Monegro FCL/A+

.597 Wehunt  3 teams

.619 Wikelman AA

.674 Mullins A+

.675 Paez A-/A+

 

Other Notables:

.411 Valera 63 IP FCL/A-

.506 Y Ruiz 46 IP DSL

.529 Ingrassia 58 IP A-

Dobbins and valera are two of my breakout stars of 2024. 
dobbins with decent stuff. Over 120 innings pitched. ERA under 3.1. Almost as many strikeouts as innings pitched. .237 batting average against! Need to work a bit on command and control with 48 walks 

[mvp 78]

Bryan Gonzalez named SAL season All Star. He is the all time Drive HR leader and had a nice bounceback season. He had 3 HR's in his first two DSL games, but hadn't shown significant in game power until this year.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Dobbins and valera are two of my breakout stars of 2024. 
dobbins with decent stuff. Over 120 innings pitched. ERA under 3.1. Almost as many strikeouts as innings pitched. .237 batting average against! Need to work a bit on command and control with 48 walks 

I've never seen him pitch, but I notice his very good numbers.

soxprospects.com wrote this...

Fastball: 93-96 mph. Tops out at 98 mph. Pitch has average life. Control is ahead of command at this point, but both are at least average already. Needs to do a better job consistently getting ahead of hitters with his fastball and is much more comfortable pitching to his glove side than arm side. Fastball velocity and quality decrease as the game goes on. Velocity has increased since early in his career and is hitting the high-90s in 2024. Potential average pitch.

Sprinkler: 89-92 mph. New pitch to his arsenal in 2024. Looks like a sinking fastball at times with a little more vertical drop. Still a work in progress, but has flashed potential.

Cutter: 87-90 mph. Short, horizontal break. Fringe-average potential.

Slider: 81-83 mph. Two-plane, 10-to-4 shape. When he snaps it off, has shown bat-missing ability in the zone. Will also show a harder bullet slider in the mid-to-high 80s at times, with less break. Potential above-average pitch.

Sweeper: 78-80 mph. Newish pitch in 2024 with long, horizontal break. Mostly used as a chase pitch, but has shown the ability to land in the zone as well. Has shown improvement with it as 2024 has gone on. Potential average pitch.
 

Curveball: 76-78 mph. Long, 12-to-6 breaking ball with depth. Used primarily to steal a strike early in the count, or to put away hitters late. Can be effective when used in sequence. Potential fringe-average pitch.

Splitter: 84-87 mph. Newish pitch in 2023 that evolved from his changeup, which itself had developed from a split-change. Some will show late dive and bat-missing ability down and out of the zone. Shows potential as a chase pitch, but still working on consistently landing it in the zone. Potential average pitch.

Summation: Potential up-and-down depth starter or multi-inning reliever. Ceiling of a back-end starter. At his best, will show plus-to-better velocity and several secondary pitches that can all get hitters out. Wide-ranging arsenal with pitches that move in all directions and confidence that he can throw any of them for strikes. Still working to find a go-to, major league-quality out pitch. Effortful delivery brings injury and consistency concerns, and needs to improve his fastball command. Fastball can get hittable later in games and velocity tends to tick down. Needs to show he can consistently get left-handed hitters out to profile as a starter, but has developed into one of the more intriguing arms in the system.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Anthony 1-3 w BB, tonight

He's at .952 in AAA.