2024 Prospects

[mvp 78]

To me, it makes sense to rank Meidroth ahead of Cespedes because Meidroth seems to have some MLB tools that could get him in games this week if the Sox wanted him there. He could fill in at 2B/3B/fake SS and show a decent batter's eye. Would he still have an 800+ OPS? Probably not. However, I'd bet that he could do better than Reyes' 716 from last year. If he's Brock Holtish in terms of production, that's a great outcome. 

Cespedes is a player without a position right now. It's undetermined if he can stay in the IF. If he moves to the OF, there's even more adjustment for the glove. His bat is good, but his body isn't going to fill out anymore than it already has. Is he on the Jasson Dominguez track where he can maximize his body type or is he just a bulky short guy?

Right now, Cespedes is just so far away that almost anything could happen in his development. Meidroth is already on the doorstep. 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I see him as a replacement for the David Hamilton bench role. 

I think we "sell high" on DHam, this winter- maybe in a package with Abreu and or Wink.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, it makes sense to rank Meidroth ahead of Cespedes because Meidroth seems to have some MLB tools that could get him in games this week if the Sox wanted him there. He could fill in at 2B/3B/fake SS and show a decent batter's eye. Would he still have an 800+ OPS? Probably not. However, I'd bet that he could do better than Reyes' 716 from last year. If he's Brock Holtish in terms of production, that's a great outcome. 

Cespedes is a player without a position right now. It's undetermined if he can stay in the IF. If he moves to the OF, there's even more adjustment for the glove. His bat is good, but his body isn't going to fill out anymore than it already has. Is he on the Jason Dominguez track where he can maximize his body type or is he just a bulky short guy?

Right now, Cespedes is just so far away that almost anything could happen in his development. Meidroth is already on the doorstep. 

Makes sense. I think I'm higher on Cespedes and his bat than some.

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we "sell high" on DHam, this winter- maybe in a package with Abreu and or Wink.

I think they have another option year so they may just keep him around for SS/2B insurance until the kids are ready.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Makes sense. I think I'm higher on Cespedes and his bat than some.

It's fine. Not like he's a bad prospect and we're trying to put a 30th ranked guy in the top 10. 

[moonslav59]

If we add anyone to the 40, it might be a guy who we may add in December for Rule 5 protection, like Guerrero would have:

Dobbins

Fitts

(We may protect  Monegro & JH Garcia, but they won't be called up, soon.)

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox Top Prospects by ETA (soxprospects.com with tweaks)

2025: 1 Anthony, 2 Mayer, 3 Campbell, 4 Teel, 9 Meidroth (all listed as "early '25)

12 Fitts, 18 Dobbins, 19 Penrod, 27. Guerrero

2026: 6 Perales (they have him as '27) 11 Sandlin, 14 Romero, 15 Jh Garcia, 16 Castro, 22 Monegro

2027: 5 Montgomery,  8 Bleis, 13 Tolle, 21 E R-C

2028: 7 Arias, 10 Cespedes, 17 Jo Garcia, 24 Valera

Guerrero called up today. 
I think Anthony and Campbell should break training camp 25 with Boston. 
I do not think any Worcester pitcher except Hendricks  is capable of starting 2025 in Boston. 

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Guerrero called up today. 
I think Anthony and Campbell should break training camp 25 with Boston. 
I do not think any Worcester pitcher except Hendricks  is capable of starting 2025 in Boston. 

If we end up breaking camp with Fitts or Priester on the 26, it means we went cheap, again.

I'm not sure we have any of the top prospects on the 26 or 40 man roster on opening day, since all are not Rule 5, yet.

I do agree, Anthony and Campbell are the two best choices, and are likely upgrades over what we have or will have starting at 2B and RF, next season.

Teams like to hold off adding players that don't need to add, until absolutely needed. Adding one or two means cutting ties with 1-2 other players. They usually give those 2 guys a chance, first, if needed.

Now, if Ref retires or there is an OF injury, or we play rafaela at middle IF, then the chances Anthony is added goes up.

If Grissom, DHam, Romy, Sogard and EValdez all look weak, maybe we jump the gun on Campbell, but I think they give the best of those 5 every chance to make the 26.

Believe me, I'd love to see Anthony and Campbell in the opening day line-up. If trading Abreu can improve our pitching, I'd be glad we did it for that reason and to allow Anthony a FT position. Same with trading DHam and adding Campbell.

1. L Duran LF

2. R Campbell 2B

3. L Casas 1B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Anthony RF

7. L Yoshida DH

8. R Wong C

9. R Rafaela CF

[moonslav59]

Woo is in a late rain delay down 3-2. Dobbins let up 3 ER in 4.2 IP (6H, 2BB, 4K.) Grissom is 1-2 w BB (.698), Anthony 1-4 (.950), Teel 0-2 w BB and Campbell 0-3 w BB (.980.)

POR lost 3-1, but Early pitched a gem: 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 0BB, 9K, Sikes went 2-4, Romero 1-4 w SF and JH Garcia 0-3 w BB.

GRE is tied, late.  E R-C let up 4 in 4IP.

SAL is getting drilled, and Valera lasted just 2.2 (4H, 3ER, 1BB, 5K) Alcantara homered.

[moonslav59]

Sox Most Recent Prospect Graduations:

2024: Abreu, Rafaela, DHamSlaten, Booser, Horn

2023: Casas, Kelly, Bernardino, Murphy

2022: Duran, Bello, Wong, Crawford, Winckowski

2021: Houck, Whitlock

[moonslav59]

Biggest Jumps and Falls since the start of the 2024 Season:

Not Rateds: +36+ Valera (NR>24), +29+ D Ryeyes, +28+ Ju Gonzales, +23+ Riemer, +10+ Dean, Carlson, Ingrassia & Gasper

 

+34 Jh Garcia (49>15)

+22 Early (47>25)

+19 K Campbell (22>3)

+19 J Paez (48>29)

+18 Arias (25>7)

+16 Mullins (42>26)

+16 Penrod (35>19)

+13 Romero (27>14)

+12 N Taylor (50>38)

+6 Dobbins (24>18)

+5 Meidroth (14>9)

Falls:

-31 Hickey (17>48)

-23 Rogers (37>60)

-19 A Anderson (26>45)

-17 Zanetello (13>30)

-16 Hoppe (31>57)

-15 Gambrell (32>47)

-12 Wikelman (8>20)/ Jordan (16>28)/Mata (40>52)

-8 Brannon (43>51)

-7 Bastardo (29>36)

[moonslav59]

Can someone explain to me why Penrod jumped up?

The soxprospects,com podcasts says he will be added to the 40 within 5 days after the WS.

[Larry Cook]

99 mph fastball is my guess. 6 years of control as a middle reliever with a chance to excel if the command and control improve 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

99 mph fastball is my guess. 6 years of control as a middle reliever with a chance to excel if the command and control improve 

But .862 OPSA

4.23 ERA AA/AAA

over 4.5 BB/9

Lots of guys throw 99 and walk a ton of guys.

[mvp 78]

They’ve said in the past that a reliever wouldn’t be top 20 and that seems to be Penrod’s future. IDK. Sometimes they get high on a guy and stay there. I have him above Wikelman too, but not Top 20.

[mvp 78]

Chris Hatfield said that Penrod didn’t really jump, but the others around him fell. Also, Meidroth leaped Cespedes due to proximity to MLB, missing dev time for Cespedes and ceiling vs floor debate.

[mvp 78]

Per SP podcast, Meidroth is dinged up. DHing and not running normally at the moment. Probably not getting called up.

[moonslav59]

I know I rely, too much, on stats when valuing prospects, but I just don't get the love for Penrod.

I also tend to value higher ceilings more than higher or predictable decent floors.

We all have our biases.

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I know I rely, too much, on stats when valuing prospects, but I just don't get the love for Penrod.

I also tend to value higher ceilings more than higher or predictable decent floors.

We all have our biases.

A lot of people see the 99 mph fastball, but it has little movement on it or it gets too much white part of the plate. 
You look at winkleman’s fastball and it has tons of movement, but ends up outside the strike zone or hitting the guy on deck!! (Haha) 

the question Bailey needs to answer is if they can get penrod’s spin rate right, can the ball should get some life. Also can penrod learn to live on the black part of the plate 

[moonslav59]

Alvarez had 3 jacks for Woo, tonight. Westbrook & Bobby Dee had one, each. Meidroth went 1-3 w 2BB (.867.) Campbell went 0-5 w 3Ks, trade him! Grissom walked 4 times.

POR won 7-1, as Jh Garcia and Jordan went 2-4. Romero homered (.883.)

GRE won 7-4. Monegro 5 IP, 2H, 2ER, 3BB, 7Ks.

Salem's loss was the only one in the whole system. Judice got lit up. Arias went 2-5 w 2B.

[moonslav59]

Clean sweep on the farm, today. Anthony went 3 for 6 w 2B. Campbell & Teel got 1 hit, each, and Meidroth walked twice. Grissom, who walked 4 times, yesterday, walked 3 times today and went 1-2.

POR won 8-5 as Romero homered, again (.909.) Sikes walked 3 times. Jordan 2-4 w 4 rbi.

B Gonzalez hit his 20th in the GRE 5-4 win. (3-4 .845) Reimer went 2-4.

SAL won 13-3. Ingrassia went 2 scoreless. Arias 2-3 w 2BB and is up to .709, now.

[Larry Cook]

Someone said that 6 out of Romero’s 13 hits at Greenville are taters !!!!!   Wow!!!! 

[moonslav59]

And 6 HRs in 11 games!

He was our first pick in '22, had some injuries and struggles, but maybe is coming into his own, now.

Some of Bloom's head-scratcher moves are looking a little better over time. (Many are not or are already past the grading point.)

[mvp 78]

On 9/7/2024 at 11:47 AM, moonslav59 said:

I know I rely, too much, on stats when valuing prospects, but I just don't get the love for Penrod.

I also tend to value higher ceilings more than higher or predictable decent floors.

We all have our biases.

When you watch Penrod, you'll see an inning where he'll absolutely mow the hitters down. The next, he'll be all over the place. He just may be better suited as a one inning guy. He's basically a poor man's Andrew Miller. There's a lot of growing pains right now and the Sox need to see if they can figure him out because there is considerable upside with a lefty with his stuff. If you just look at the boxscore, the picture is uglier. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

And 6 HRs in 11 games!

He was our first pick in '22, had some injuries and struggles, but maybe is coming into his own, now.

Some of Bloom's head-scratcher moves are looking a little better over time. (Many are not or are already past the grading point.)

The injuries are still a little concerning and may limit his upside. He's not the greatest SS and probably is a better 2b. Is he a Jed Lowrie who can have a long MLB career with a few big seasons? His bat has really played up. 

SoxProspects ranked the SS defense as follows:

Romero<Campbell<Mayer<Rafaela (if Rafaela was left at SS fulltime and never went back to CF)

Romero has ok, but a weak arm.

Campbell is athletic and can get to everything, but his arm is only marginally better than Romero's.

Mayer is solid.

Rafaela is athletic, but needs the time to relearn the position and play there everyday for a few years to reach his potential. 

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The injuries are still a little concerning and may limit his upside. He's not the greatest SS and probably is a better 2b. Is he a Jed Lowrie who can have a long MLB career with a few big seasons? His bat has really played up. 

SoxProspects ranked the SS defense as follows:

Romero<Campbell<Mayer<Rafaela (if Rafaela was left at SS fulltime and never went back to CF)

Romero has ok, but a weak arm.

Campbell is athletic and can get to everything, but his arm is only marginally better than Romero's.

Mayer is solid.

Rafaela is athletic, but needs the time to relearn the position and play there everyday for a few years to reach his potential. 

Romero looks to have a great first step and gets to balls that most of our SS’s cannot get to. But the throw from deep in the hole, he seems to either make it very nicely or bounce it and I do not know if that is by choice 

[moonslav59]

If Romero ends up at 2B, it would be fine, as maybe Campbell ends up in the OF, anyway.

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Romero ends up at 2B, it would be fine, as maybe Campbell ends up in the OF, anyway.

Maybe? It's hard to say as he's only playing OF about a quarter of the time. He's only had 2 OF starts in AAA, which is even less than he was playing before. 

[moonslav59]

Lot's of maybes and moving parts on the farm, especially with what position many end up being best at.

[moonslav59]

Selected Top OPS On the Farm

1.017 Gasper (AA>AAA)

.994 Campbell (3 teams)

.913 Jh Garcia (3 teams)

.896 Arias (FCL>A-)

.880 Anthony (AA>AAA)

.862 Meidroth AAA

.850 Mayer AA

.845 B Gonzalez A+

.840 Romero (3 teams)

.795 Teel (AA>AAA)

OPS Against

.411 Valera FCL>A+ (63 IP)

.506 Y Ruiz DSL (47)

.529 Ingrassia A- (58)

.552 Dean A->A+ (80)

.572 Wehunt (A->A+) 92

.580 E R-C A->A+ (90)

.596 Monegro FCL>A+ (76)

.601 Kirwin A- (69)

.614 Dobbins AA>AAA (115)