A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

2 excellent pitchers and Duvall and call it a day. (I'd prefer 3, but this is the "realistic" thread.

 

Maybe trade Dugo for a good LH RP'er or SP depth.

 

That’s a simple plan. An overhaul is possible…

[moonslav59]

That’s a simple plan. An overhaul is possible…

 

Of course, we could do more. Personally, I'd like to see us add 3 solid SP'ers and create an awesome pen by attrition. Adding obe RHB like Duvall might not be enough, but I am trying to stay realistic. I don't see any other big RHBs that fit our positional needs.

 

I guess we could go crazy with the wallet and wheel and deal and shift guys around by getting Chapman, Duvall, 3 SP'ers and maybe trade Yoshida and or Dugo, but that would almost certainly involve going way over the tax line (maybe the third) an or making a huge prospect tarde or two.

 

My point is, I'd prefer going with quality over quantity, for once. I'd rather get 3-4 top players than 5-7 so-so ones.

 

[notin]

unlike Boston fans

 

 

 

 

Depending on their budget, next year could be the last year of the run for the Phillies. After 2024, the Phillies have over $570mill committed on future contracts but only $36mill of it is dedicated pitching. Specifically to Taijuan Walker.

 

MLB Pipeline ranks their farm 23rd. They do have two very good pitching protects in Andrew Psinter and Mick Abel. Painter missed this season with Tommy John surgery…

[dgalehouse]

or maybe DD has/will do what he did in Boston. Keep the prospects that are really good and trade the ones that are at least over-rated.

 

Probably. And I don't think he will make a dumb move like trading Bryce Harper to the Dodgers.

[notin]

Probably. And I don't think he will make a dumb move like trading Bryce Harper to the Dodgers.

 

No one would have had to do anything like that in Boston if Dombrowski just signed Betts to an extension…

[Randy Red Sox]

No one would have had to do anything like that in Boston if Dombrowski just signed Betts to an extension…

 

i doubt Henry gave DD the go ahead to sign Mookie to an extension just like he didn't give Bloom that either.

[Randy Red Sox]

Depending on their budget, next year could be the last year of the run for the Phillies. After 2024, the Phillies have over $570mill committed on future contracts but only $36mill of it is dedicated pitching. Specifically to Taijuan Walker.

 

MLB Pipeline ranks their farm 23rd. They do have two very good pitching protects in Andrew Psinter and Mick Abel. Painter missed this season with Tommy John surgery…

 

 

Yeah let's bring in the next GM and keep the same model Henry wants and we can finish last 3 of the next 4 years too since you seem to be so down on DD

[notin]

Yeah let's bring in the next GM and keep the same model Henry wants and we can finish last 3 of the next 4 years too since you seem to be so down on DD

 

Hey the winning was nice, but Dombrowski left this as an 84 win team and $300mill committed to Sale, Price and Eovaldi spanning 11 seasons and with 10 of them in the books, only one time did a pitcher to 110 IP. He also gave that stupid opt out contract to Bogaerts and didn’t sign Betts. And according to Mookie, didn’t really even try (although I don’t believe Mookie there).

 

Were you happy with that aspect of Dombrowski?

 

 

Or are you living in a world where that didn’t happen and certainly didn’t impact this team afterwards?

Edited October 17, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Probably. And I don't think he will make a dumb move like trading Bryce Harper to the Dodgers.

 

He was about to trade Betts and Price to LAD in 2019, but the team started winning, and the plan changed.

[Old Red]

Asking a serious question - why do you belittle baseball fans for talking about baseball and for getting excited when their team is doing well?

 

Really? Are you for real. Belittle is what you call it? What do you call all the comments on eye test, BA, and watered down just to mention a few when talking about baseball.

[moonslav59]

Hey the winning was nice, but Dombrowski left this as an 84 win team and $300mill committed to Sale, Price and Eovaldi spanning 11 seasons and with 10 of them in the books, only one time did a pitcher to 110 IP. He also gave that stupid opt out contract to Bogaerts and didn’t sign Betts. And according to Mookie, didn’t really even try (although I don’t believe Mookie there).

 

Were you happy with that aspect of Dombrowski?

 

 

Or are you living in a world where that didn’t happen and certainly didn’t impact this team afterwards?

 

I'm 100% fine with what he left, because what he did worked for 3 wonderful years, including one golden one.

 

No regrets, for me, but I'm one who thinks sacrifice is a virtue.

 

Had we not won (and not just about the ring year), he might have been one of the worst GM we've had in a while.

[moonslav59]

Asking a serious question - why do you belittle baseball fans for talking about baseball and for getting excited when their team is doing well?

 

I knew he would just deflect. Clockwork.

[notin]

Really? Are you for real. Belittle is what you call it? What do you call all the comments on eye test, BA, and watered down just to mention a few when talking about baseball.

 

Awww…. You’re adorable when you scream “victim!!”

[notin]

I'm 100% fine with what he left, because what he did worked for 3 wonderful years, including one golden one.

 

No regrets, for me, but I'm one who thinks sacrifice is a virtue.

 

Had we not won (and not just about the ring year), he might have been one of the worst GM we've had in a while.

 

I saw it coming to some extent when he signed Price. The other forum was still around but I did comment I’d rather have seen the money go to extending Betts.

 

Although I at least liked the opt out big hoped Price would exercise it…

[moonslav59]

I saw it coming to some extent when he signed Price. The other forum was still around but I did comment I’d rather have seen the money go to extending Betts.

 

Although I at least liked the opt out big hoped Price would exercise it…

 

Did you see the list of the biggest contracts we ever gave out (FA and extension) and how many were traded, eventually?

[notin]

Did you see the list of the biggest contracts we ever gave out (FA and extension) and how many were traded, eventually?

 

Didn’t see the list but I know the stories.

 

Not many has actual meat still on the contracts. Price did, but that was still bad because the Sox had to attach Mookie. Trading AGon and Crawford was a difference maker (despite getting nothing back) while trading Manny with 2 months left on an 8 year deal, not so much (despite getting something)…

[Hugh2]

or maybe DD has/will do what he did in Boston. Keep the prospects that are really good and trade the ones that are at least over-rated.

 

This seems to be a fan narrative that just doesn't play out in baseball.

 

Teams obviously have more insight on their own guys, but there is a vast scouting community and a whole understanding to that world we don't see or hear about. Other teams know what they're buying.

 

I don't believe a team ever "trades their prospects that won't work out" and keep the ones "who will work out" They don't know. These are human beings, and you can't predict their future. I think GM's understand they have to give up something to get something and sometimes you win a trade and sometimes you don't. Sometimes both sides win.

 

A lot of prospects are going to either fail, or fall short of their ceilings, most do. People tend to evaluate a prospect in terms of said player becoming what their peak "ceiling is". If you trade away a lot of guys, just by chance a lot of them won't work out.

 

DD doesn't scout these guys, it's the Red Sox internal department that are giving him reports on these guys. He doesn't know who will pan out and who will not, and that's not to take anything away from his ability to spin a trade and bring in a player THE player an organization may need. That alone is good praise for a guy.

[mvp 78]

Maybe. It’s definitely over in Milwaukee…

 

The majority of pitchers that have had this issue haven't come back from it.

[moonslav59]

Didn’t see the list but I know the stories.

 

Not many has actual meat still on the contracts. Price did, but that was still bad because the Sox had to attach Mookie. Trading AGon and Crawford was a difference maker (despite getting nothing back) while trading Manny with 2 months left on an 8 year deal, not so much (despite getting something)…

 

Here's my list. Maybe, I missed 1 or 2...

 

Here are the biggest contracts given out by the Sox under JH:

 

Free Agents and Extensions (No adjustments for inflation made)

(Manny's $160M/8 deal in '01 was pre-JH)

 

314/10 Devers '24

217/7 Price '16 (later dumped)

154/7 AGon '12 (later traded with salary dump CC)

145/5 Sale '20 (made $15M in '19) Almost traded

142/7 Crawford '11 (later dumped)

140/6 Story '22

120/6 Bogey '20 w opt out after '22

110/5 JD '18

110/8 Pedey '14

95/5 Pablo '15 (later cut)

90/5 Yoshida (plus large positing fee)

88/4 HRam '15 (later cut)

83/4 Porcello '16

83/5 Lackey '10 (later traded)

73/7 Rusney Castillo (almost all in the minors)

70/5 JD Drew '07

68/4 Nate '19

52/6 Dice-K '07 (plus huge posting fee)

41/4 Youk '09 w option (traded)

41/6 Pedroia '09

40/4 Renteria '05 (later dumped)

40/4 VTek '05

39/3 Vic '13

38/3 Lowell '08

38/3 Lugo '07

32/2 Napoli '14

32/2 Jansen '23

31/4 Damon '02

30/3 Beckett '07 w option (traded)

30/4 Buchholz '12 w options

30/5 Lester '09 w option

(29/2 Peavy '13 traded Iggy for him after signing)

27/2 Dempster (retired after 1 yr)

26/2 Ortiz '13

26/3 Clement '13 (hit in the face by a LD)

26/4 Foulke '04 (gave us one great year)

20/1 Betts '19 (traded)

19/2 Barnes w option (traded)

18/2 Uehara '15

18/2 Martin '23

18/1 Devers '23

16/2 Cameron '10

14/2 Kike '21 (traded under next $10M/1 deal)

14/3 Vaz '19 w option (traded)

13/2 Moreland '18 (traded)

13/2 C Young '16

13/2 Scutaro '10 (traded)

12/1 Bogey '19

12/2 Jenks '11

11/1 SDrew

11/1 JBJ '20

11/1 Devers '22

[mvp 78]

Really? Are you for real. Belittle is what you call it? What do you call all the comments on eye test, BA, and watered down just to mention a few when talking about baseball.

 

You only use the eye test to complain.

[moonslav59]

This seems to be a fan narrative that just doesn't play out in baseball.

 

Teams obviously have more insight on their own guys, but there is a vast scouting community and a whole understanding to that world we don't see or hear about. Other teams know what they're buying.

 

I don't believe a team ever "trades their prospects that won't work out" and keep the ones "who will work out" They don't know. These are human beings, and you can't predict their future. I think GM's understand they have to give up something to get something and sometimes you win a trade and sometimes you don't. Sometimes both sides win.

 

A lot of prospects are going to either fail, or fall short of their ceilings, most do. People tend to evaluate a prospect in terms of said player becoming what their peak "ceiling is". If you trade away a lot of guys, just by chance a lot of them won't work out.

 

DD doesn't scout these guys, it's the Red Sox internal department that are giving him reports on these guys. He doesn't know who will pan out and who will not, and that's not to take anything away from his ability to spin a trade and bring in a player THE player an organization may need. That alone is good praise for a guy.

 

Good post. I would guess, most of the time, if a team sees a flaw in a highly ranked prospect and wants to trade him, as a result, the other teams know about the flaw, too. Maybe, one team doesn't see it, or thinks they can correct it, and makes the trade anyway.

 

I do think some teams value some players more than other teams do, but probably not by much on the vast majority of prospects and players.

[mvp 78]

This seems to be a fan narrative that just doesn't play out in baseball.

 

Teams obviously have more insight on their own guys, but there is a vast scouting community and a whole understanding to that world we don't see or hear about. Other teams know what they're buying.

 

I don't believe a team ever "trades their prospects that won't work out" and keep the ones "who will work out" They don't know. These are human beings, and you can't predict their future. I think GM's understand they have to give up something to get something and sometimes you win a trade and sometimes you don't. Sometimes both sides win.

 

A lot of prospects are going to either fail, or fall short of their ceilings, most do. People tend to evaluate a prospect in terms of said player becoming what their peak "ceiling is". If you trade away a lot of guys, just by chance a lot of them won't work out.

 

DD doesn't scout these guys, it's the Red Sox internal department that are giving him reports on these guys. He doesn't know who will pan out and who will not, and that's not to take anything away from his ability to spin a trade and bring in a player THE player an organization may need. That alone is good praise for a guy.

 

In general, I agree with this. However, the FO should evaluate the players based on what they project and if there are guys they are ok with moving on from, they should just do so.

[moonslav59]

You only use the eye test to complain.

 

He also used it while admitting he wasn't watching the game of baseball for a while.

 

His "eye test" is looking at box scores.

[mvp 78]

He also used it while admitting he wasn't watching the game of baseball for a while.

 

His "eye test" is looking at box scores.

 

No, highlights.

[Hugh2]

Good post. I would guess, most of the time, if a team sees a flaw in a highly ranked prospect and wants to trade him, as a result, the other teams know about the flaw, too. Maybe, one team doesn't see it, or thinks they can correct it, and makes the trade anyway.

 

I do think some teams value some players more than other teams do, but probably not by much on the vast majority of prospects and players.

 

Exactly, and there have been instances where teams have been compensated and been in trouble for withholding certain information too, usually medical stuff.

 

Just because a team trades away a guy, doesn't mean they're lower on him. Take Nick Yorke for example, the Sox may be higher on him than we realize, yet another team might be very high on him too, and might demand him (with other guys) in a trade for said player.

 

Do the Red Sox sit there and say "No we think he's going to be a good player so we can not trade him"? or do they say "Yeah we think he's going to be a good player, but we are trading him for a guy we know is a good player and can help our team win. We also really believe in Mayer, and he will be our SS sliding Story over to 2nd".

 

Although I'm sure neither of those statements are 100% accurate, some permutation of the later feels a lot more correct.

Edited October 17, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[notin]

Here's my list. Maybe, I missed 1 or 2...

 

Here are the biggest contracts given out by the Sox under JH:

 

Free Agents and Extensions (No adjustments for inflation made)

(Manny's $160M/8 deal in '01 was pre-JH)

 

314/10 Devers '24

217/7 Price '16 (later dumped)

154/7 AGon '12 (later traded with salary dump CC)

145/5 Sale '20 (made $15M in '19) Almost traded

142/7 Crawford '11 (later dumped)

140/6 Story '22

120/6 Bogey '20 w opt out after '22

110/5 JD '18

110/8 Pedey '14

95/5 Pablo '15 (later cut)

90/5 Yoshida (plus large positing fee)

88/4 HRam '15 (later cut)

83/4 Porcello '16

83/5 Lackey '10 (later traded)

73/7 Rusney Castillo (almost all in the minors)

70/5 JD Drew '07

68/4 Nate '19

52/6 Dice-K '07 (plus huge posting fee)

41/4 Youk '09 w option (traded)

41/6 Pedroia '09

40/4 Renteria '05 (later dumped)

40/4 VTek '05

39/3 Vic '13

38/3 Lowell '08

38/3 Lugo '07

32/2 Napoli '14

32/2 Jansen '23

31/4 Damon '02

30/3 Beckett '07 w option (traded)

30/4 Buchholz '12 w options

30/5 Lester '09 w option

(29/2 Peavy '13 traded Iggy for him after signing)

27/2 Dempster (retired after 1 yr)

26/2 Ortiz '13

26/3 Clement '13 (hit in the face by a LD)

26/4 Foulke '04 (gave us one great year)

20/1 Betts '19 (traded)

19/2 Barnes w option (traded)

18/2 Uehara '15

18/2 Martin '23

18/1 Devers '23

16/2 Cameron '10

14/2 Kike '21 (traded under next $10M/1 deal)

14/3 Vaz '19 w option (traded)

13/2 Moreland '18 (traded)

13/2 C Young '16

13/2 Scutaro '10 (traded)

12/1 Bogey '19

12/2 Jenks '11

11/1 SDrew

11/1 JBJ '20

11/1 Devers '22

 

So not all that many were traded, and Price, AGon and Crawford remain the only ones dealt with substantial money left..,

Edited October 17, 2023 by notin

[notin]

Here's my list. Maybe, I missed 1 or 2...

 

Here are the biggest contracts given out by the Sox under JH:

 

Free Agents and Extensions (No adjustments for inflation made)

(Manny's $160M/8 deal in '01 was pre-JH)

 

314/10 Devers '24

217/7 Price '16 (later dumped)

154/7 AGon '12 (later traded with salary dump CC)

145/5 Sale '20 (made $15M in '19) Almost traded

142/7 Crawford '11 (later dumped)

140/6 Story '22

120/6 Bogey '20 w opt out after '22

110/5 JD '18

110/8 Pedey '14

95/5 Pablo '15 (later cut)

90/5 Yoshida (plus large positing fee)

88/4 HRam '15 (later cut)

83/4 Porcello '16

83/5 Lackey '10 (later traded)

73/7 Rusney Castillo (almost all in the minors)

70/5 JD Drew '07

68/4 Nate '19

52/6 Dice-K '07 (plus huge posting fee)

41/4 Youk '09 w option (traded)

41/6 Pedroia '09

40/4 Renteria '05 (later dumped)

40/4 VTek '05

39/3 Vic '13

38/3 Lowell '08

38/3 Lugo '07

32/2 Napoli '14

32/2 Jansen '23

31/4 Damon '02

30/3 Beckett '07 w option (traded)

30/4 Buchholz '12 w options

30/5 Lester '09 w option

(29/2 Peavy '13 traded Iggy for him after signing)

27/2 Dempster (retired after 1 yr)

26/2 Ortiz '13

26/3 Clement '13 (hit in the face by a LD)

26/4 Foulke '04 (gave us one great year)

20/1 Betts '19 (traded)

19/2 Barnes w option (traded)

18/2 Uehara '15

18/2 Martin '23

18/1 Devers '23

16/2 Cameron '10

14/2 Kike '21 (traded under next $10M/1 deal)

14/3 Vaz '19 w option (traded)

13/2 Moreland '18 (traded)

13/2 C Young '16

13/2 Scutaro '10 (traded)

12/1 Bogey '19

12/2 Jenks '11

11/1 SDrew

11/1 JBJ '20

11/1 Devers '22

 

 

I didn’t realize only 11 players in team history have had an annual salary of $20mill or more under Henry. And that’s counting Mookie’s one year deal in 2020…

[moonslav59]

I didn’t realize only 11 players in team history have had an annual salary of $20mill or more under Henry. And that’s counting Mookie’s one year deal in 2020…

 

I might have missed a couple pre-arb deals and extensions. Cots didn't list the Jenks deal, and I caught that, and maybe they and I missed more.

 

Many of the guys not in red did not finish playing with the Sox, their final year of their deals, due to injury- like Clement.

 

I should have put Peavy in Red, as we traded him in the big rotation purge..

[moonslav59]

So not all that many were traded, and Price, AGon and Crawford remain the only ones dealt with substantial money left..,

 

Lackey's deal was probably top 10 or 11, with inflation factored in.

 

Not counting Devers, if you figure inflation, maybe 4 out of the top 10 have been traded (Sale nearly made it 5), and 2 were DFA'd (Pablo & HRam) before their time was up.

With the Bogey opt out, he was not top 10.

[notin]

This seems to be a fan narrative that just doesn't play out in baseball.

 

Teams obviously have more insight on their own guys, but there is a vast scouting community and a whole understanding to that world we don't see or hear about. Other teams know what they're buying.

 

I don't believe a team ever "trades their prospects that won't work out" and keep the ones "who will work out" They don't know. These are human beings, and you can't predict their future. I think GM's understand they have to give up something to get something and sometimes you win a trade and sometimes you don't. Sometimes both sides win.

 

A lot of prospects are going to either fail, or fall short of their ceilings, most do. People tend to evaluate a prospect in terms of said player becoming what their peak "ceiling is". If you trade away a lot of guys, just by chance a lot of them won't work out.

 

DD doesn't scout these guys, it's the Red Sox internal department that are giving him reports on these guys. He doesn't know who will pan out and who will not, and that's not to take anything away from his ability to spin a trade and bring in a player THE player an organization may need. That alone is good praise for a guy.

 

 

And the notion that Player X “didn’t work out” can be a subjective. Dombrowski kept Benintendi and dealt Manny Margot. There really isn’t much difference between these two players. Benintendi had a terrific 2018, which certainly helped. But overall they’re essentially the same player since 2018 (Benintendi has 7.9 bWAR in that stretch while Margot has 7.8.)