A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Maybe???????????????????

 

It's still pretty close.

 

The drop in spending rankings is worrisome and makes it harder for us to compete at higher levels, but it's not like JH stopped spending over the last 2-3 years.

 

2020 and 2024 look more like outliers than a trend, to me. Certainly, it's not evidence he will never "spend again."

 

The jury is out on that.

[moonslav59]

Have you seen the cost of translators lately?

 

Pete Rose says he'd be "scott free," if he had an interpreter back in the day.

[notin]

Now? They just don't like where the current roster is positioned w/o Anthony/Mayer/Teel and weren't going to jump on anyone unless the perfect option (Yamamoto) was there.

 

If they’re banking on Teel/Anthony/Mayer to bring the franchise back to glory, I hope there is a contingency plan, and it better not be Bleis/Cespedes/Perales.

 

I’m ok with the Sox not commuting large and long to a pitcher solely because he was the best/only option on the market. Montgomery is divisive on the upper limits of his skill set. Personally, I think he’s good but unexciting. On the scale of Dodger Hall of Fame pitchers, he’s more Don Sutton than Sandy Koufax.

 

If they like next year’s free agent market better, fine. But it is likely to get smaller between now and then, through extensions and possibly injuries. It’s a risky move, because if they come in last this year and sit out the starter market again, the only fans left will be the diehards. And even some of them might walk away…

[Bellhorn04]

You, sir, seem to be looking forward to engaging in a rousing bout of fisticuffs with myself.

 

Not me, I'm just here to have fun.

[Dipre]

Not me, I'm just here to have fun.

 

Fisticuffs are fun

[mvp 78]

It's still pretty close.

 

The drop in spending rankings is worrisome and makes it harder for us to compete at higher levels, but it's not like JH stopped spending over the last 2-3 years.

 

2020 and 2024 look more like outliers than a trend, to me. Certainly, it's not evidence he will never "spend again."

 

The jury is out on that.

 

If you look at it as a % of CBT, the highest spending teams would be:

 

1. 2018

2. 2019

3. 2004

4. 2016

5. 2007

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If they’re banking on Teel/Anthony/Mayer to bring the franchise back to glory, I hope there is a contingency plan, and it better not be Bleis/Cespedes/Perales.

 

 

The plan must be to outbid the Dodgers and Yankees and Mets and Rangers and Dombrowskis for Buehler and Fried... uh, wait- that's only if the Big Three actually are good.

 

Remember, on Bloom's last fun weekend in Massachusetts, he said they traded Mookie because the team wasn't prepared to surround him with talent (and it allowed them to sign Kike and Garrett Richards!). But then, ominously, he said with Raffy, they were "willing to make that bet."

 

What if Bloom was fired right before he was about to join the high rollers -- like Henry feared he'd be a new Dombro... and that would make Breslow an old Bloom. Aaarrrggghhhhh!

[mvp 78]

If they’re banking on Teel/Anthony/Mayer to bring the franchise back to glory, I hope there is a contingency plan, and it better not be Bleis/Cespedes/Perales.

 

I’m ok with the Sox not commuting large and long to a pitcher solely because he was the best/only option on the market. Montgomery is divisive on the upper limits of his skill set. Personally, I think he’s good but unexciting. On the scale of Dodger Hall of Fame pitchers, he’s more Don Sutton than Sandy Koufax.

 

If they like next year’s free agent market better, fine. But it is likely to get smaller between now and then, through extensions and possibly injuries. It’s a risky move, because if they come in last this year and sit out the starter market again, the only fans left will be the diehards. And even some of them might walk away…

 

They haven't announced what the backup plan is, but I'm worried they've put too much onto these young players. We can't expect Anthony to mash from day one. We can't expect Mayer to not struggle here and there. We can't expect Teel to show up on 4/1/25 and be a 30 year old Jason Varitek.

[moonslav59]

If they’re banking on Teel/Anthony/Mayer to bring the franchise back to glory, I hope there is a contingency plan, and it better not be Bleis/Cespedes/Perales.

 

I’m ok with the Sox not commuting large and long to a pitcher solely because he was the best/only option on the market. Montgomery is divisive on the upper limits of his skill set. Personally, I think he’s good but unexciting. On the scale of Dodger Hall of Fame pitchers, he’s more Don Sutton than Sandy Koufax.

 

If they like next year’s free agent market better, fine. But it is likely to get smaller between now and then, through extensions and possibly injuries. It’s a risky move, because if they come in last this year and sit out the starter market again, the only fans left will be the diehards. And even some of them might walk away…

 

I agree. I think they are hoping this up and coming group of prospects boosts the team to the point where 1-2 major pitching additions puts us in the top competitive class for a window or 3 or more years. I can't say that's a totally messed up plan, and it sucks to see near nothing spent, this year, but there is some logic in waiting.

 

[notin]

They haven't announced what the backup plan is, but I'm worried they've put too much onto these young players. We can't expect Anthony to mash from day one. We can't expect Mayer to not struggle here and there. We can't expect Teel to show up on 4/1/25 and be a 30 year old Jason Varitek.

 

True as well. Anthony might be a terrific player - some time in 2027. What will the team do between now and when he is? And if he does take 4 years to become a star, will the Sox trade him away because he’s only two years away from costing money?

[moonslav59]

True as well. Anthony might be a terrific player - some time in 2027. What will the team do between now and when he is? And if he does take 4 years to become a star, will the Sox trade him away because he’s only two years away from costing money?

 

He could be a plus by 2025 and a big plus by 2026.

[notin]

He could be a plus by 2025 and a big plus by 2026.

 

And that would be great.

 

But the point is - what if he isn’t? What if 2027 comes and goes and Teel is another Blake Swihart, Mayer is Garin Cecchini and/or Anthony is Lars Anderson 2.0? Then what?

[Bellhorn04]

And that would be great.

 

But the point is - what if he isn’t? What if 2027 comes and goes and Teel is another Blake Swihart, Mayer is Garin Cecchini and/or Anthony is Lars Anderson 2.0? Then what?

 

As comic Steven Wright's father told him, "If worse comes to worst, we're all screwed."

[mvp 78]

He could be a plus by 2025 and a big plus by 2026.

 

He could be and the team is counting on it for some reason. It's more likely he's not though. Most players take a little time to develop, even in the majors.

 

Yes, Anthony grew 2"s over the offseason and put on weight. He's gained bat speed and is hitting moonshots. That doesn't mean he's a lock to be a star player. He still has platoon splits. He only played 10 games at AA. People need to pump the brakes a little. It's ok to be excited, but to expect him to be great right away.

[moonslav59]

He could be and the team is counting on it for some reason. It's more likely he's not though. Most players take a little time to develop, even in the majors.

 

Yes, Anthony grew 2"s over the offseason and put on weight. He's gained bat speed and is hitting moonshots. That doesn't mean he's a lock to be a star player. He still has platoon splits. He only played 10 games at AA. People need to pump the brakes a little. It's ok to be excited, but to expect him to be great right away.

 

No, he is no lock, that's why I said "could be..."

[mvp 78]

No, he is no lock, that's why I said "could be..."

 

He "could be" but they are counting on him to be.

[notin]

No, he is no lock, that's why I said "could be..."

 

No one is indicting Anthony’s ability. The indictment is the Sox front office making MLB roster decisions today that factor in a 20yo player with 10 games above A ball. That’s actually a ridiculous way to run a team that will burn you more often than not…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Would everybody be ok with the Roman Candle if he hits 20 homers and steals 20 bases his first full year, then has a 4.8 WAR the next, while leading the Sox in postseason runs, hits, doubles and SBs as Boston wins the World Series?

 

But suddenly, before he gets a raise, they trade him for a Franchy who can't play outfield or infield, and a minor league arm connected to a mustache?

 

Then he'd be Benintendi.

[moonslav59]

Would everybody be ok with the Roman Candle if he hits 20 homers and steals 20 bases his first full year, then has a 4.8 WAR the next, while leading the Sox in postseason runs, hits, doubles and SBs as Boston wins the World Series?

 

I could see him at .750 in his rookie 2025 season with 20-20.

 

2026: .800+ with 25+ HRs, or not...

[mvp 78]

Would everybody be ok with the Roman Candle if he hits 20 homers and steals 20 bases his first full year, then has a 4.8 WAR the next, while leading the Sox in postseason runs, hits, doubles and SBs as Boston wins the World Series?

 

But suddenly, before he gets a raise, they trade him for a Franchy who can't play outfield or infield, and a minor league arm connected to a mustache?

 

Then he'd be Benintendi.

 

Benintendi had a lot of promise, but it all kind of went away after 2018. He's a bad defender with no power. It's not really the same archetype.

 

Also, they got Freddy Valdez (released), Luis De La Rosa (released) and Grant Gambrell!

[Old Red]

No one is indicting Anthony’s ability. The indictment is the Sox front office making MLB roster decisions today that factor in a 20yo player with 10 games above A ball. That’s actually a ridiculous way to run a team that will burn you more often than not…

 

Agree 100%, and giving up on years in the process on something that may never turn out as good as so many have been hoping, and waiting for.

[moonslav59]

Benintendi had a lot of promise, but it all kind of went away after 2018. He's a bad defender with no power. It's not really the same archetype.

 

Also, they got Freddy Valdez (released), Luis De La Rosa (released) and Grant Gambrell!

 

...and Winckowski!

[moonslav59]

ESPN has these return dates for our i nujured players:

 

4/9 Mata (Hamstring, out of options) Threw 15 pitche pen session on WED.

 

4/23 Grissom (Groin: To stay in extended ST until 4/7) Assume rehab in AAA until he's ready

 

5/1 Refsnyder (fractured left pinky)

 

8/1 Hendriks (elbow) Playing catch, now

 

AAA: Zack Kelly (Oblique) and Mikey Romero (lower back) are both day to day

 

 

2025 Giolito (UCL), Murphy (UCL)

[mvp 78]

...and Winckowski!

 

Franchy and Winckowski were already mentioned in a post above so I didn't include them.

[mvp 78]

ESPN has these return dates for our i nujured players:

 

4/9 Mata (Hamstring, out of options) Threw 15 pitche pen session on WED.

 

4/23 Grissom (Groin: To stay in extended ST until 4/7) Assume rehab in AAA until he's ready

 

5/1 Refsnyder (fractured left pinky)

 

8/1 Hendriks (elbow) Playing catch, now

 

AAA: Zack Kelly (Oblique) and Mikey Romero (lower back) are both day to day

 

 

2025 Giolito (UCL), Murphy (UCL)

 

Mata may come off the IL, but still is able to rehab in AAA for a period of time I believe...

 

Romero seems to have been an amazing pick.

[mvp 78]

Romero is Jed Lowrie with the injury dial turned all the way up.

[sk7326]

If they’re banking on Teel/Anthony/Mayer to bring the franchise back to glory, I hope there is a contingency plan, and it better not be Bleis/Cespedes/Perales.

 

I’m ok with the Sox not commuting large and long to a pitcher solely because he was the best/only option on the market. Montgomery is divisive on the upper limits of his skill set. Personally, I think he’s good but unexciting. On the scale of Dodger Hall of Fame pitchers, he’s more Don Sutton than Sandy Koufax.

 

If they like next year’s free agent market better, fine. But it is likely to get smaller between now and then, through extensions and possibly injuries. It’s a risky move, because if they come in last this year and sit out the starter market again, the only fans left will be the diehards. And even some of them might walk away…

 

I sighed wistfully when I saw how ridiculously team-friendly the deals to Snell and Montgomery were. It would have been nice as a floor raiser.

 

I don't really have a problem with their approach to the position players. There is a runway for some promising kids to take jobs. What configuration that takes up - or whether they have, say, 3 starting outfielders from this bunch, is an open question. At minimum, this should be more fun in the near term.

[notin]

Romero is Jed Lowrie with the injury dial turned all the way up.

 

But Jed Lowrie was legally a zombie…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But Jed Lowrie was legally a zombie…

 

Lowrie was in a movie (or portrayed in a movie).

 

Romero is the Mondesi of the minors.

[notin]

Lowrie was in a movie (or portrayed in a movie).

 

Romero is the Mondesi of the minors.

 

 

What movie was Lowrie portrayed in?

 

My first thought was Moneyball, but that all took place while Lowrie was still at Stanford…