A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

Even though most of those pitchers flame out? Perhaps so many Sox pitchers get selected because so few Sox pitchers are worth protecting.

 

For all the questions about why the Sox kept Kaleb Ort over Thad Ward last year (many of which were asked by me), at the end of the day, Ort was pretty much equal to Ward on some metrics and slightly better on others. Sure the much younger Ward theoretically has more potential to be better. But he also had much more potential to have his career shortened by a series of arm surgeries…

 

To me, the Sox just had such a barren crop of starting pitchers that I would have erred on keeping Ward over some of the relief arms that were more dime a dozen. Ward wasn't a must keep, but it wasn't a surprise he went first overall. And to not even try to trade him earlier that offseason? Very weird.

[notin]

To me, the Sox just had such a barren crop of starting pitchers that I would have erred on keeping Ward over some of the relief arms that were more dime a dozen. Ward wasn't a must keep, but it wasn't a surprise he went first overall. And to not even try to trade him earlier that offseason? Very weird.

 

I suppose they hoped his frequent injuries would allow him to pass through unselected. He had only pitched 59 innings total in the 3 previous seasons. At 26 years old with that track record, was he even good trade bait? Maybe they did offer him around but didn’t get any nibbles…

[mvp 78]

Yes. I forgot the PED guy.

 

Both lists are pretty bad for a ten year window.

The list of acquired pitching prospects is as good, if not better.

 

The list of acquired vets is littered with failures, too, but has enough gems to bring us some intermittent joy:

Wacha

Nate

Porcello

Sale

Price

More than a decade ago: Beckett, Schilling and Pedro

 

Ben was a pretty dismal drafter. DD was marginally better. Since Theo, the 1st round pitchers were Kopech, Light, Ball, Johnson, Goome and Houck. It's not a great bunch. So far, it's been 6 straight drafts where the first pick has not been a pitcher.

[mvp 78]

I suppose they hoped his frequent injuries would allow him to pass through unselected. He had only pitched 59 innings total in the 3 previous seasons. At 26 years old with that track record, was he even good trade bait? Maybe they did offer him around but didn’t get any nibbles…

 

Good trade bait? Nats wanted to grab him with the first pick overall. Someone would have wanted him for a roster spot is my guess. Even if you are dumping him for a flier, it's better than just losing him. Maybe they figured they'd rather him get taken and hope he'd return?

[moonslav59]

I’m thinking Whitlock & Slaten > Ward, Drohan and Song (who is now back with us)

[mvp 78]

I’m thinking Whitlock & Slaten > Ward, Drohan and Song (who is now back with us)

 

Ryan Fernandez is now with STL and will likely stay the whole year.

[notin]

Good trade bait? Nats wanted to grab him with the first pick overall. Someone would have wanted him for a roster spot is my guess. Even if you are dumping him for a flier, it's better than just losing him. Maybe they figured they'd rather him get taken and hope he'd return?

 

Also possible…

[moonslav59]

Also possible…

 

I think the chances he stayed on a MLB roster all year were pretty low, so maybe they did expect to get him back.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not following that logic.

 

The Sox pitching prospects are putrid, so the team should protect more of them?

 

 

If the business model is not to spend to recruit reinforcements outside the org -- or (excuse me, Brez) not invest in "external" talent -- until all the prospects we're counting on ultimately make the bigs -- then why throw money away on dumpster dives when we can just develop our own paid-for putridity.

 

We have new magic pitching experts who are going to defy every other evaluating voice in the industry...

[moonslav59]

If the business model is not to spend to recruit reinforcements outside the org -- or (excuse me, Brez) not invest in "external" talent -- until all the prospects we're counting on ultimately make the bigs -- then why throw money away on dumpster dives when we can just develop our own paid-for putridity.

 

We have new magic pitching experts who are going to defy every other evaluating voice in the industry...

 

Adding guys like Whitlock, Slaten, Schreiber, Bernardino and Winckowski is not costly.

 

Dumpster dives like Hill, Wacha, Kluber, Richards and maybe even Gio are more costly and have been mostly unhelpful.

 

If our system of finding and developing young pitchers does not improve, or even if it does, we won't see instant results in a meaningful way for a while, we will have to add outside pitchers one way or another. Dumpster diving should just be part of that process, as hitting on some makes it worthwhile.

 

We need to invest in real talent, at some point- either by trading everyday players/prospects or spending big on a FA and hoping we don't swing and miss. I'm not sure when or if this happens, anytime, soon.

[tom-uk]

"Since Lester and Buch"-- Buch was drafted in '05!! Every other Sox issue pales in comparison.

[notin]

If the business model is not to spend to recruit reinforcements outside the org -- or (excuse me, Brez) not invest in "external" talent -- until all the prospects we're counting on ultimately make the bigs -- then why throw money away on dumpster dives when we can just develop our own paid-for putridity.

 

We have new magic pitching experts who are going to defy every other evaluating voice in the industry...

 

A failed prospect isn’t necessarily the equal of a struggling MLB pitcher. Ryan Weber wasn’t a good starting pitcher, but that doesn’t mean Trey Ball could have done the same thing, but for less money…

[moonslav59]

"Since Lester and Buch"-- Buch was drafted in '05!! Every other Sox issue pales in comparison.

 

Yes, this goes back about 2 decades, if you count the years we drafted Lester and Buch. (Also Anibel Sanchez and Masterson)

[tom-uk]

Of the pitchers traded to get Pedro and Schill- Pavano and Fossum were Sox draft picks, not de la Rosa or Armas.

[moonslav59]

Of the pitchers traded to get Pedro and Schill- Pavano and Fossum were Sox draft picks, not de la Rosa or Armas.

 

And Anibel Sanchez (w HRam) for Beckett (w Lowell) and Kopech (w others) for Sale.

 

Beeks for Nate.

[mvp 78]

Yes, this goes back about 2 decades, if you count the years we drafted Lester and Buch. (Also Anibel Sanchez and Masterson)

 

Largely thanks to 12 years of Ben, Dave and Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Largely thanks to 12 years of Ben, Dave and Bloom.

 

Agreed, but for some reason the middle and last years of Theo seemed to kick it all off.

 

Theo's last drafts and IFA signings, working backwards from 2011:

 

#19 Barnes (1st Spx pick)

#36 Owens

#143 Noe Ramirez

IFA J Aro

 

2010:

#39 Ranaudo (3rd pick taken)

#57 Workman

IFA Frank Montas

 

2009:

#77 Wilson (1st selection)

IFA Wm Cuevas

 

2008:

#30 Kelly (1st selection traded for AGon)

#45 Bryan Price (see Hagadone)

#85 Stephen Fife

#108 Kyle Weiland

 

2007:

#55 Hagadone (1st selection and part of Masterson & B Price deal for VMart)

 

2006:

#28 Daniel Bard (2nd selection)

#40 Kris Johnson

#44 Caleb Clay

# Masterson (was a good pick but not great)

 

2005:

#26 Craig Hansen

#42 Buchholz

#47 M Bowden

IFA Doubront

 

2004:

95 Dobies

125 Hottovy

185 Cla Meredith

 

Lester was drafted in 2002.

Anibal Sanchez was signed as an amateur FA in 2001.

 

One could argue that after Buch, Theo was not much better than the next 3 GMs.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

Agreed, but for some reason the middle and last years of Theo seemed to kick it all off.

 

Theo's last drafts and IFA signings, working backwards from 2011:

 

#19 Barnes (1st Spx pick)

#36 Owens

#143 Noe Ramirez

IFA J Aro

 

2010:

#39 Ranaudo (3rd pick taken)

#57 Workman

IFA Frank Montas

 

2009:

#77 Wilson (1st selection)

IFA Wm Cuevas

 

2008:

#30 Kelly (1st selection traded for AGon)

#45 Bryan Price (see Hagadone)

#85 Stephen Fife

#108 Kyle Weiland

 

2007:

#55 Hagadone (1st selection and part of Masterson & B Price deal for VMart)

 

2006:

#28 Daniel Bard (2nd selection)

#40 Kris Johnson

#44 Caleb Clay

# Masterson (was a good pick but not great)

 

2005:

#26 Craig Hansen

#42 Buchholz

#47 M Bowden

IFA Doubront

 

2004:

95 Dobies

125 Hottovy

185 Cla Meredith

 

Lester was drafted in 2002.

Anibal Sanchez was signed as an amateur FA in 2001.

 

One could argue that after Buch, Theo was not much better than the next 3 GMs.

 

 

yep...Red Sox farm system is where pitching careers go to die.

[moonslav59]

yep...Red Sox farm system is where pitching careers go to die.

 

I'm not so sure any of these guys would have rocked it with other systems, but certainly they had no favors done for them.

 

I think our pitching selection decisions are half the issue.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but for some reason the middle and last years of Theo seemed to kick it all off.

 

Theo's last drafts and IFA signings, working backwards from 2011:

 

#19 Barnes (1st Spx pick)

#36 Owens

#143 Noe Ramirez

IFA J Aro

 

2010:

#39 Ranaudo (3rd pick taken)

#57 Workman

IFA Frank Montas

 

2009:

#77 Wilson (1st selection)

IFA Wm Cuevas

 

2008:

#30 Kelly (1st selection traded for AGon)

#45 Bryan Price (see Hagadone)

#85 Stephen Fife

#108 Kyle Weiland

 

2007:

#55 Hagadone (1st selection and part of Masterson & B Price deal for VMart)

 

2006:

#28 Daniel Bard (2nd selection)

#40 Kris Johnson

#44 Caleb Clay

# Masterson (was a good pick but not great)

 

2005:

#26 Craig Hansen

#42 Buchholz

#47 M Bowden

IFA Doubront

 

2004:

95 Dobies

125 Hottovy

185 Cla Meredith

 

Lester was drafted in 2002.

Anibal Sanchez was signed as an amateur FA in 2001.

 

One could argue that after Buch, Theo was not much better than the next 3 GMs.

 

 

Bard, Workman, Owens and Barnes is better than what Cherington did. Hard to say on DD (Houck/Crawford) or Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Bard, Workman, Owens and Barnes is better than what Cherington did. Hard to say on DD (Houck/Crawford) or Bloom.

 

You had to go back 6 years to include Bard.

 

Here are the 4 year breakdowns (best 4):

Draft/IFA/Rule5/MiLFA/Trade for prospect

 

Theo 2004-2007:

Buchholz

Doubront

Masterson (traded)

Bard

 

Theo 2008-2011:

Montas (traded)

Barnes

Workman

Wilson (traded)

 

Ben 2012-2015:

ERod

Brian Johnson

Jalen Beeks (traded for Nate)

Kopech (part of Sale trade)/ Espinoza (traded for Pom-Pom)/G Bautista

 

DD 2016-2019:

Bello

Crawford

Houck

Wikelman/ Perales/ Murphy/Walter/Monegro/Bastardo/Mata/H Velazquez

 

Bloom 2020-2023:

Whitlock

Winckowski

Bernardino

Z Kelly/ Drohan/ Gambrell/ Guerrero/ Dobbins/ E R-C/ Paez/Hoppe

 

Breslow (1/2 year) 2024

Fitts

Slaten

Sandlin

Judice

 

Let me know if I missed a top 4 pitcher, somewhere.

 

Pre-2004:

Lester

Papelbon

Anibal Sanchez

______?

 

(Fossom in '99)

 

Edited March 26, 2024 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

The team's position that position players are just lower risk and easier to project than pitchers is obviously correct - but at the same time you need pitching and have to get it somehow.

 

If the team wants to focus draft priorities on bats/gloves - then you have to rely on your pro scouting to make deals like the Eduardo Rodriguez one. But what you also need is for your own pitching development to help. That is a little bit why I am "wait and see" about Breslow - because clearly part of his charge is to rebuild the pitching development infrastructure. Like, if Gonzalez makes a leap this year or finds some consistency ... and you have some other triumphs like that, or if Bello makes a leap, then I'm more positive.

[mvp 78]

The team's position that position players are just lower risk and easier to project than pitchers is obviously correct - but at the same time you need pitching and have to get it somehow.

 

If the team wants to focus draft priorities on bats/gloves - then you have to rely on your pro scouting to make deals like the Eduardo Rodriguez one. But what you also need is for your own pitching development to help. That is a little bit why I am "wait and see" about Breslow - because clearly part of his charge is to rebuild the pitching development infrastructure. Like, if Gonzalez makes a leap this year or finds some consistency ... and you have some other triumphs like that, or if Bello makes a leap, then I'm more positive.

 

100%. If they aren't dealing for pitchers, how else are they acquiring them? Very weird how they built the top of the organization recently. There are theories that Bloom was set to make big trades this offseason and acquire pitching, but I can't believe that s*** until I actually see it.

[notin]

100%. If they aren't dealing for pitchers, how else are they acquiring them? Very weird how they built the top of the organization recently. There are theories that Bloom was set to make big trades this offseason and acquire pitching, but I can't believe that s*** until I actually see it.

 

I don't think you're going to see Bloom make any big trades to help the Boston pitching staff anytime soon...

[moonslav59]

I don't think you're going to see Bloom make any big trades to help the Boston pitching staff anytime soon...

 

I kinda felt Ben was all set to make some trades, right before he left Boston, too.

 

I guess we'll never know.

 

Brez made trades for

 

Fitts, Weissert and Judice (Verdugo)

 

Campbell (Urias)

 

Slaten (Ammons + Cash)

 

[mvp 78]

I don't think you're going to see Bloom make any big trades to help the Boston pitching staff anytime soon...

 

No?

[mvp 78]

I kinda felt Ben was all set to make some trades, right before he left Boston, too.

 

That's what people have said this offseason. I think it's just to make themselves feel better about hitching their wagons to him.

[Bellhorn04]

I kinda felt Ben was all set to make some trades, right before he left Boston, too.

 

I guess we'll never know.

 

We just have to hang in there for John Henry's deathbed memoirs...

[sk7326]

100%. If they aren't dealing for pitchers, how else are they acquiring them? Very weird how they built the top of the organization recently. There are theories that Bloom was set to make big trades this offseason and acquire pitching, but I can't believe that s*** until I actually see it.

 

Right. Now, a deal like the Schreiber deal, where Breslow dealt a useful middle reliever for the guy who is aruguably the best pitching prospect in the system - is a good sign. But that has to be the route if you are squeamish about using high picks on them.

[mvp 78]

Right. Now, a deal like the Schreiber deal, where Breslow dealt a useful middle reliever for the guy who is aruguably the best pitching prospect in the system - is a good sign. But that has to be the route if you are squeamish about using high picks on them.

 

How many people here have actually seen Sandlin pitch?