A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

I think this is the team we have for opening day: no more significant additions.

[mvp 78]

Counting cron, our 2024 budget is what, 202 million? Slightly north of Henry’s 200 million budget.

 

I heard 215, so enough to still do a Casas extension under this CBT and not fork out any cash this year.

[mvp 78]

@CodifyBaseball

Latest 2024 AL Starting Pitcher Rankings

(via FanGraphs):

 

#1 Mariners

#2 Twins

#3 Blue Jays

#4 Astros

#5 Yankees

#6 Rays

#7 Orioles

#8 Rangers

#9 Red Sox

#10 Guardians

#11 Tigers

#12 Angels

#13 Royals

#14 Athletics

#15 White Sox

 

Kind of surprising that the outlook of the Guardians is higher than the Sox.

 

Bieber, Bibee, McKenzie, Allen, Williams/Carrasco

vs

Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock/Criswell/Winckowski

[moonslav59]

Kind of surprising that the outlook of the Guardians is higher than the Sox.

 

Bieber, Bibee, McKenzie, Allen, Williams/Carrasco

vs

Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock/Criswell/Winckowski

 

#10 is higher than #9?

[moonslav59]

Teel and VTek similarities...

 

 

Shades of Varitek in this Boston prospect

WWW.MLB.COM

---

FORT MYERS, Fla. – It’s impossible to avoid ruminating on the parallels. Two former All-ACC first-team catchers. Two 14th overall picks. Two players who reached Double-A in their first tastes of the Minor Leagues. One is just getting his career started with the Red Sox. The other won two World

[moonslav59]

@CodifyBaseball

Latest 2024 AL Starting Pitcher Rankings

(via FanGraphs):

 

#1 Mariners

#2 Twins

#3 Blue Jays

#4 Astros

#5 Yankees

#6 Rays

#7 Orioles

#8 Rangers

#9 Red Sox

#10 Guardians

#11 Tigers

#12 Angels

#13 Royals

#14 Athletics

#15 White Sox

 

If we end up with the 9th best rotation in MLB, we'll have a strong chance at making the playoffs, despite the fact that 4 of the 8 teams ahead of us are also in the ALE. I think we have a better pen and offense than a few ALE teams. Again, the D might be our downfall, despite some improvements, on paper.

 

I haven't looked too closely at other teams' rotations, but 9th seems way too high. I would have guessed we'd be 15th at best and maybe 20-24th, at worst.

 

9th with Giolito seems like a big stretch. Without him, it seems absurd.

[moonslav59]

Is this the projected 13 man pitching staff on opening day?

 

60 Day IL: Giolito

10 Day IL: Mata

 

SP1 Bello

SP2 Pivetta

SP3 Crawford

SP4 Houck

SP5 Whitlock

Long Relief Winckowski

Long Relief Criswell

Mid Relief Campbell

Mid Relief Weissert

Mid Relief Slaten

Short Relief Bernardino

Set-up Martin

Closer Jansen

 

AAA Depth

Murphy

Walter

Z Kelly

Jacques

(AA Wikelman/ A Perales not likely)

 

Not on 40:

Fitts, Gambrell

Joely, Hagenman, Luetge, Guerrero, Benitez, Politi, Booser

AA Hoppe, Olivares

 

Edited March 15, 2024 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

If we end up with the 9th best rotation in MLB, we'll have a strong chance at making the playoffs, despite the fact that 4 of the 8 teams ahead of us are also in the ALE. I think we have a better pen and offense than a few ALE teams. Again, the D might be our downfall, despite some improvements, on paper.

 

I haven't looked too closely at other teams' rotations, but 9th seems way too high. I would have guessed we'd be 15th at best and maybe 20-24th, at worst.

 

9th with Giolito seems like a big stretch. Without him, it seems absurd.

 

That is ninth in the A.L. , not MLB.

[moonslav59]

Opening Day Line-up?

 

10 Day IL: Refsnyder

 

1. L Duran CF/ R Rafaela CF

2. L Devers 3B

3. R O'Neill LF

4. L Casas 1B

5. L Yoshida DH

6. R Story SS

7. L Abreu RF

8. R Grissom 2B

9. R Wong C/ L McGuire C

UT R Reyes

1B R Cron

 

AAA Depth

C: Heineman (Scott not on 40)

1B: Dalbec

MI: DHam & R Gonzalez (Yorke, Sogard & Meidroth not on 40)

OF: (R Gonzalez) (Contreras, Guthrie, Westbrook not on 40.)

[moonslav59]

That is ninth in the A.L. , not MLB.

 

That makes sense.

 

My bad.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@CodifyBaseball

Latest 2024 AL Starting Pitcher Rankings

(via FanGraphs):

 

#1 Mariners

#2 Twins

#3 Blue Jays

#4 Astros

#5 Yankees

#6 Rays

#7 Orioles

#8 Rangers

#9 Red Sox

#10 Guardians

#11 Tigers

#12 Angels

#13 Royals

#14 Athletics

#15 White Sox

 

Kind of surprising that the outlook of the Guardians is higher than the Sox.

 

Bieber, Bibee, McKenzie, Allen, Williams/Carrasco

vs

Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock/Criswell/Winckowski

 

I don't mean to be a downer, but nobody in the Red Sox projected rotation has ever even had one entire good season of starting.

 

At least Cleveland has Bieber, former Cy Young and still only 28 -- and if you're anticipating a bounceback year, his ERA was only 3.80 in '23 (not pushing 5, like Giolito the past two years).

 

Arguably, Detroit also has a brighter outlook with Skubal, predicted by some Sox media as a possible Cy contender... maybe Tigers media is predicting big things from Bello?

 

But looking at the AL East, what's more likely: Boston has a few guys emerge as actual solid starters or New York vets like Rodon, Cortes and Cole are never on the IL (after/if Cole returns in a month... or two...or three)?

[jad]

I don't mean to be a downer, but nobody in the Red Sox projected rotation has ever even had one entire good season of starting.

At least Cleveland has Bieber, former Cy Young and still only 28 -- and if you're anticipating a bounceback year, his ERA was only 3.80 in '23 (not pushing 5, like Giolito the past two years).

 

Arguably, Detroit also has a brighter outlook with Skubal, predicted by some Sox media as a possible Cy contender... maybe Tigers media is predicting big things from Bello?

 

But looking at the AL East, what's more likely: Boston has a few guys emerge as actual solid starters or New York vets like Rodon, Cortes and Cole are never on the IL (after/if Cole returns in a month... or two...or three)?

 

Our analytics department assures us that this means they're due.

[moonslav59]

Astros in "serious pursuit of Blake Snell."

[moonslav59]

What's the big worry?

 

.890 Rafaela

.900 Story

1.120 Devers

.771 Yoshida

.602 Casas

1.176 Wong

.786 EValdez

.794 Duran

.961 O'Neill

[Randy Red Sox]

Astros in "serious pursuit of Blake Snell."

 

at this point teams should simply wait till May 1 on Snell

[moonslav59]

at this point teams should simply wait till May 1 on Snell

 

They need him, now.

 

I think he won't put them over the tax line, but I could be wrong.

[notin]

They need him, now.

 

I think he won't put them over the tax line, but I could be wrong.

 

Why does May 1st matter for free agents with a QO? Is that the new deadline for not losing a pick? It used to be after the actual draft itself took place in June..

[Randy Red Sox]

Why does May 1st matter for free agents with a QO? Is that the new deadline for not losing a pick? It used to be after the actual draft itself took place in June..

 

after May 1st Snell will not require a team to surrender any draft picks

[Randy Red Sox]

They need him, now.

 

I think he won't put them over the tax line, but I could be wrong.

 

they can get by till then without Snell who likely at this point would not be ready for opening day anyhow

[moonslav59]

they can get by till then without Snell who likely at this point would not be ready for opening day anyhow

 

Their rotation injuries are mounting, and some that are healthy looked suspect, late last year.

 

They also have stiff competition in their division with Texas & Seattle looking tough.

 

I think they sign him before May 1st. Signing May 1st means mid to late May action. Signing, now, means early to mid April- maybe 6 more starts.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com ranks the Sox 23rd in their "World Series Draft," but says they would pick them to win the AL Central.

 

The ALE is well represented in the top 12:

 

3. BAL

7. NYY

8. TBR

12. TOR

 

[Randy Red Sox]

Their rotation injuries are mounting, and some that are healthy looked suspect, late last year.

 

They also have stiff competition in their division with Texas & Seattle looking tough.

 

I think they sign him before May 1st. Signing May 1st means mid to late May action. Signing, now, means early to mid April- maybe 6 more starts.

 

you may be right but if it is me I wait till May 1st. there will be a rush for him by then

[moonslav59]

MLB.com ranks the Sox 23rd in their "World Series Draft," but says they would pick them to win the AL Central.

 

The ALE is well represented in the top 12:

 

3. BAL

7. NYY

8. TBR

12. TOR

 

 

Proportionally, each division should have 2 teams in the top 12. Having 4 really emphasizes just how strong the ALE is.

 

This is also WS chances, and being 4th in the division, like TOR is, greatly reduces their chances at a playoff shot.

 

MLB.com's Jan 1st power rankings had this:

4. BAL

7. TBR

8. NYY

10. TOR (4 in the top 10- not 12)

19. BOS (5 in top 19, when the norm should be 3 in the top 18.)

[notin]

Soxprospects lists the Sox starting OF for 2024 as Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF with O’Neill on the bench. Now I could see this OF happening on occasion, especially given O’Neill’s propensity for injuries. But is it the starting OF a respectable website should predict?

 

I will say it’s better than the mess on Roster Resource, who have O’Neill in LF and Rafaela in CF along with Duran in RF. Duran in RF at Fenway is questionable enough, but then they have him platooning out there. And it looks like his platoon partner is CJ Cron. I suppose Cron could be DHing with Yoshida starting in RF against LHP, but I’m not sure that’s much better.

 

So what should the Sox starting OF actually look like?

 

I’d think it’s either Duran (LF), Rafaela (CF) and O’Neill (RF) or O’Neill (LF), Duran (CF) and Abreu (RF).

 

Barring any more injuries, of course…

Edited March 17, 2024 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Soxprospects lists the Sox starting OF for 2024 as Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF with O’Neill on the bench. Now I could see this OF happening on occasion, especially given O’Neill’s propensity for injuries. But is it the starting OF a respectable website should predict?

 

I will say it’s better than the mess on Roster Resource, who have O’Neill in LF and Rafaela in CF along with Duran in RF. Duran in RF at Fenway is questionable enough, but then they have him platooning out there. And it looks like his platoon partner is CJ Cron. I suppose Cron could be DHing with Yoshida starting in RF against LHP, but I’m not sure that’s much better.

 

So what should the Sox starting OF actually look like?

 

I’d think it’s either Duran (LF), Rafaela (CF) and O’Neill (RF) or O’Neill (LF), Duran (CF) and Abreu (RF).

 

Barring any more injuries, of course…

 

Optimizing the new rules favoring speed on the bases, the best line-up and most exciting for fans will have both Duran and Ceddanne as regulars. A L-R platoon of Abreu-O'Neill in RF is also reasonable, and it's likely the former gets more reps than the latter, who already has multiple strains and sprains flaring up... though TO could also share some ABs in R-L DH platoon with Yoshi, if Masa gets into another 4-3 slump.

[Randy Red Sox]

Proportionally, each division should have 2 teams in the top 12. Having 4 really emphasizes just how strong the ALE is.

 

This is also WS chances, and being 4th in the division, like TOR is, greatly reduces their chances at a playoff shot.

 

MLB.com's Jan 1st power rankings had this:

4. BAL

7. TBR

8. NYY

10. TOR (4 in the top 10- not 12)

19. BOS (5 in top 19, when the norm should be 3 in the top 18.)

 

i take no solace from the fact IF your numbers are proven to bear fruit. The bottom line is that at least on paper the Sox are the FIFTH best team in the AL East--the division they play in. They have been last in that division for 3 of the last 4 years and doomed to repeat there in 2024. Since they continue to put a .500 or thereabouts team on the field has John Henry apparently keeping enough fans happy and Fenway full. They have been mired in the mushy middle for far too long and given Henry's philosophy { or lack of interest} I don't see this changing any time soon.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects lists the Sox starting OF for 2024 as Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Abreu in RF with O’Neill on the bench. Now I could see this OF happening on occasion, especially given O’Neill’s propensity for injuries. But is it the starting OF a respectable website should predict?

 

I will say it’s better than the mess on Roster Resource, who have O’Neill in LF and Rafaela in CF along with Duran in RF. Duran in RF at Fenway is questionable enough, but then they have him platooning out there. And it looks like his platoon partner is CJ Cron. I suppose Cron could be DHing with Yoshida starting in RF against LHP, but I’m not sure that’s much better.

 

So what should the Sox starting OF actually look like?

 

I’d think it’s either Duran (LF), Rafaela (CF) and O’Neill (RF) or O’Neill (LF), Duran (CF) and Abreu (RF).

 

Barring any more injuries, of course…

 

Has Duran played RF, at all, in ST'ing?

 

I still think it will be...

 

LF: O'Neill (Yoshida when not at DH)

CF: Duran (Abreu when not in RF)

RF: Abreu (O'Neill when Yoshida is in LF)

4th: Refsnyder (when healthy)

 

AAA: Rafaela (at least until he earns the extra year of control)

[moonslav59]

Optimizing the new rules favoring speed on the bases, the best line-up and most exciting for fans will have both Duran and Ceddanne as regulars. A L-R platoon of Abreu-O'Neill in RF is also reasonable, and it's likely the former gets more reps than the latter, who already has multiple strains and sprains flaring up... though TO could also share some ABs in R-L DH platoon with Yoshi, if Masa gets into another 4-3 slump.

 

I like the idea, but O'Neill, when healthy, should be a very good hitter vs LHPs and RHPs. His career splits are pretty even.

 

.816 v LHPs, which is the short end of a platoon. (maybe he could start v some RHPs)

.765 v RHPs (I'm not sure Abreu projects higher than .765 v RHPs.)

 

In his big 2021 season:

1.025 v LHPs

.888 v RHP

 

I think maybe we sit Rafaela a bit more, so O'Neill & Abreu play more. Maybe sit Duran vs several LHPs, to spread out the PAs more evenly.

 

When healthy:

 

O'Neill: 90% vs RHPs/ 100% v LHPs (RF/LF)

Duran: 100% v RHPs/ 50% v LHPs (CF/LF)

Abreu: 100% v RHPs/ 50% v LHPs (RF/CF)

Rafaela: 10% v RHPs/ 100% v LHPs (CF) Is this enough playing time for Rafaela? If you give him 50+% vs RHPs, and we could sit Abreu?

 

This assume no Yoshida in the OF.

 

Edited March 17, 2024 by moonslav59

[notin]

Optimizing the new rules favoring speed on the bases, the best line-up and most exciting for fans will have both Duran and Ceddanne as regulars. A L-R platoon of Abreu-O'Neill in RF is also reasonable, and it's likely the former gets more reps than the latter, who already has multiple strains and sprains flaring up... though TO could also share some ABs in R-L DH platoon with Yoshi, if Masa gets into another 4-3 slump.

 

Without factoring in service time, I like the idea of Duran-Rafaela-O’Neill. Abreu can start in Worcester and shuttle back and forth as needed. Or is the new lingo “Uber back and forth as needed”?

[notin]

Has Duran played RF, at all, in ST'ing?

 

I still think it will be...

 

LF: O'Neill (Yoshida when not at DH)

CF: Duran (Abreu when not in RF)

RF: Abreu (O'Neill when Yoshida is in LF)

4th: Refsnyder (when healthy)

 

AAA: Rafaela (at least until he earns the extra year of control)

 

I didn’t think Duran had ever played RF. Not even in Little League.

 

That’s why I questioned that lineup. That and him platooning with Cron…