A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

the D might be better in 24 but what does it matter if the FO has no desire to upgrade the rotation? it's just last place with a better defense. whoopeee.

 

It might not matter much at all, but there is something about watching horrific defense that really gets under my skin.

 

I'd enjoy watching an average fielding team more than the worst in MLB. I'm very keen on superb SS defense, so many I can get some small patches of satisfaction watching Story do his thing, despite losing more games than any of us would like to see.

 

I think we may end up 8th to 12th on offense.

 

I think we might end up finishing near average on defense.

 

Our pen could be above average, if we don't tax it to death and use all our swingmen in the rotation, all year.

 

Our rotation looks hideous, to me, but each of the 5 or 6 we have slotted there, now, have had some nice stretches, in recent years, so maybe everything might click, and we could actually enjoy watching our team, even if they win just 74-82 games. Maybe, we add someone, before opening day and 82-86 wins might seem achievable.

 

(I'm not expecting it, but I have not lost every shred of hope, just yet.)

 

Edited January 25, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Bres-slow will look like a genius if he lasts to the end of his current contract!!!!!

 

...and how long is that?

[mvp 78]

@rotoworld_bb

Report: Trevor Story looks "explosive" in workouts

[Dipre]

He's gonna "explode" his back and miss half the season

[Bellhorn04]

@rotoworld_bb

Report: Trevor Story looks "explosive" in workouts

 

Does that mean he'll be able to catch up to major league heaters this year?

[Bellhorn04]

He's gonna "explode" his back and miss half the season

 

The time bomb is in his right elbow.

[moonslav59]

He's gonna "explode" his back and miss half the season

 

He has not been an injury prone player over his career. He's not Freakin' Chris Frail.

[mvp 78]

Does that mean he'll be able to catch up to major league heaters this year?

 

Who knows? He hit 4 seamers well before coming to BOS. Was the decline injury driven?

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has these final fWAR projections:

 

C:

0.8 McGuire

0.2 R Perez

0.1 Wong

 

1B:

3.0 Casas

 

2B:

2.3 Grissom

 

SS:

1.7 Story

 

3B:

4.7 Devers

 

LF:

1.7 O'Neill

 

CF:

1.3 Duran

 

RF:

1.3 Abreu

 

DH:

1.9 Yoshida

 

OF:

0.7 Refsnyder

0.3 Rafaela

 

IF:

0.5 EValdez

0.2 Reyes

 

SP:

2.5 Bello

2.4 Giolito

2.0 Pivetta

1.7 Crawford

1.7 Houck

 

Pen:

1.0 Whitlock

0.9 Jansen

0.9 Martin

0.6 Wink

0.3 Schreiber & Walter

0.2 Bernardino, Mata, Murphy & Criswell

0.1 Campbell

0.0 Slaten

 

ALE Projected Winning %:

.553 NYY

.529 TOR

.522 TBR

.513 BAL

.505 BOS

 

[Bellhorn04]

He has not been an injury prone player over his career. He's not Freakin' Chris Frail.

 

It only takes one nasty one though...

[notin]

It only takes one nasty one though...

 

Isn’t that also the argument to avoid Snell and Montgomery?

[moonslav59]

4.5 Devers

2.9 Casas

2.2 Grissom

1.7 Yoshida

1.6 Story

1.4 Duran, O'Neill

1.1 Abreu

1.0 Wong, 0.7 McGuire

0.6 Rafaela

0.4 Ref

0.3 EValdez, Reyes

 

2.4 Bello

2.2 Giolito

2.2 Pivetta

1.7 Houck & Crawford

1.0 Whitlock

0.9 Martin

0.6 Jansen

0.5 Scheiber & Wink

0.4 Bernardino & Walter

0.3 Campbell

0.2 Criswell & Murphy

0.1 Weissert

[moonslav59]

It only takes one nasty one though...

 

True, but maybe Story had his one and is done with injuries.

 

I see no reason to think otherwise. We have just seen his injury years, and are skeptical.

[moonslav59]

It's been a while since the last time I felt this confident in our 4 infield positions. Granted, we need health from Story, better D from Devers, no sophomore slump from Casas and Grissom to show he deserved all that hype, but it looks pretty solid, to me.

 

1B: Casas (no real back-up, except Dalbec, who should stay in AAA as much as possible.)

 

2B: Grissom still has to prove he belongs, but I'm very confident he will. (Reyes and EValdez offer nice depth.)

 

SS: Story is an excellent defender: he just needs to stay healthy and hit over .740, or so. (Not sure Reyes is all that great as depth.)

 

3B: Devers forevers. (Reyes, EValdez, Meidroth as depth is okay.)

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking maybe even Clevinger is going to be too expensive for these misers.

 

Maybe the list is down to Lauer, Wood, Duvall or a RP'er (Stanek?)

[mvp 78]

I'm thinking maybe even Clevinger is going to be too expensive for these misers.

 

Maybe the list is down to Lauer, Wood, Duvall or a RP'er (Stanek?)

 

Bailey couldn't get Wood to work out in SF. Not sure he'd bring him to BOS.

[Old Red]

I'm thinking maybe even Clevinger is going to be too expensive for these misers.

 

Maybe the list is down to Lauer, Wood, Duvall or a RP'er (Stanek?)

 

I think the Red Sox are content at this point to go with what they have now, and hope, and take their chances that things will somehow work out with the rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Red Sox are content at this point to go with what they have now, and hope, and take their chances that things will somehow work out with the rotation.

 

Incredible but true.

[notin]

I think the Red Sox are content at this point to go with what they have now, and hope, and take their chances that things will somehow work out with the rotation.

 

I think they are prepped to use what they have now, but will take advantage of any bargains that present themselves.

 

But only bargains…

[Bellhorn04]

I think they are prepped to use what they have now, but will take advantage of any bargains that present themselves.

 

But only bargains…

 

Criswells.

[notin]

Criswells.

 

I mean real bargains. Like 50% sales at Macy’s. Not shopping at Goodwill…

[jad]

I think they are prepped to use what they have now, but will take advantage of any bargains that present themselves.

 

But only bargains…

 

Only bargains? As opposed to what they've been doing this year?

[notin]

Only bargains? As opposed to what they've been doing this year?

 

No, a continuation of what they have been doing this year…

[mvp 78]

I think they are prepped to use what they have now, but will take advantage of any bargains that present themselves.

 

But only bargains…

 

The Building 19 3/4 of baseball teams.

[mvp 78]

I mean real bargains. Like 50% sales at Macy’s. Not shopping at Goodwill…

 

$.49 Ross sales?

[Old Red]

I’m still surprised they spent that much on Gio.

[notin]

I’m still surprised they spent that much on Gio.

 

My guess is they wanted him to have an opt out that also made rejecting the qualifying offer a no-brainer…

[moonslav59]

My guess is they wanted him to have an opt out that also made rejecting the qualifying offer a no-brainer…

 

I think of it this way:

 

They "saved"...

$10M on the Sale trade

$8.7M on the Verdugo trade

$5M on the Urias trade

Total: $23.7M

 

$19.2 Giolito

$5.9 on the O'Neill trade

Total: $24.7M

 

Big $1M splurge, this winter.

[notin]

I think of it this way:

 

They "saved"...

$10M on the Sale trade

$8.7M on the Verdugo trade

$5M on the Urias trade

Total: $23.7M

 

$19.2 Giolito

$5.9 on the O'Neill trade

Total: $24.7M

 

Big $1M splurge, this winter.

 

 

Double if you count Criswell!

[moonslav59]

Double if you count Criswell!

 

The winter of the Two Million Dollar splurge!