A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[harmony]

The man did unlock Kevin Gausman…

And Anthony DeSclafani!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Instead of overpaying for one or two players who can actually pitch, the Red Sox' big offseason recruit is someone retired from the mound: Andrew Bailey, pitching psychologist, who will elevate holdovers to overcome their jeers and become good enough to soon sign market rate contracts with other clubs.

 

This is the plan the front office expects will prod the club back into competitiveness. Longtime fans should think twice about giving up their season tickets.

[mvp 78]

Masslive's Christopher Smith reports that Cooper Criswell recently told reporters that club brass have instructed him to come to camp ready to start.

 

They have spoken of "stretching out" Winckowski, too.

 

Criswell doesn't have a big split difference between starting and relieving, but I don't see him impacting the bullpen anyway. He's a AAA guy to me.

 

Winck should be in the pen 100%.

[mvp 78]

I don’t see it as any sort of second chance. In order to get a second chance, you need to fail on your first one…

 

The Sox were Pedro's third chance. Sorry to say everyone! Dude was basically a poor dog left at a shelter when we found him.

[mvp 78]

This team has come a long way from the greatest team in Red Sox history: 2018. There is no question, we are far from that level, right now. The decline began in 2019, when we lost Kimbrell and Kelly

 

You are wildly overstating what Kelly provided to the team.

[mvp 78]

How many here would trade Yoshida, saving the most money possible, regardless of the return and Jansen, so we could sign Monty?

 

(Remember, Sale's contract is off the books, next year, along with Pivetta, O'Neill and Martin's contracts.)

 

Monty is good. Masa will have a comeback year. The only question is we don't know the budgetary restrictions going forward. If Henry has a strict limit well under the CBT, I don't know if I want to spend 25M+ on Monty for 5-6 years. It would tie up too much of what I need to spend towards a true ace and extending younger players. There's just different math involved when you have a miserly owner.

[moonslav59]

So, our SP'er and SP'er depth:

 

1. Bello

2. Giolito

3. Pivetta

4. Crawford

5. Houck

6. Whitlock (should stay in pen)

7. Winckowski (being "stretched out," but should also stay in pen)

8/9. Murphy/Walter (soxprospects places him in the pen and Walter in the rotation)

10. Max Castillo

11. Fitts

12. Gambrell

13. Criswell

(Wikelman?)

 

It's not a big deal, but I don't see why Criswell should jump more than 1 or 2 guys on this list.

[mvp 78]

Realistic view - 70 wins.

Optimistic view - 75 wins.

 

It's just more of the same. Red Sox ownership are in a holding pattern because they simply don't want to spend the money to compete in the AL East anymore.

 

They have a wet dream that the Red Sox can magically turn into Tampa North when the reality is that they are operating in a big market city and prices are different to bring players into Boston.

 

Whatever, another wasted year coming right up! It's going to take a lot of empty seats and actual significant loss of revenues before ownership changes their tune.

 

Realistic is 75

Optimistic is 80

 

I think the team already seems pretty similar to what they had last season for the most part with a slight downgrade in the rotation Sale & Paxton vs Giolito. If they add another arm that pushes Houck to the pen, I'd probably change my mind.

[mvp 78]

Not sure were this going, but Worcester needs starting pitchers, too. Criswell is rotation depth, coverage in the 7th to 10th starter range. He is not battling for a spot in the opening day rotation, unless there are multiple injuries.

 

Of course he probably will make a few starts at the MLB level. I can’t tell you how many, but I can tell you it will be too many.

 

And I put the odds at him finishing the season on the Sox 40 man roster at less than 25%…

 

Right now, the starters in AAA look pretty weak especially once you move Winckowski back to the pen.

 

Max Castillo

Brandon Walter

Richard Fitts

Grant Gambrell

Brian Van Belle

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Monty is good. Masa will have a comeback year. The only question is we don't know the budgetary restrictions going forward. If Henry has a strict limit well under the CBT, I don't know if I want to spend 25M+ on Monty for 5-6 years. It would tie up too much of what I need to spend towards a true ace and extending younger players. There's just different math involved when you have a miserly owner.

 

Henry says nothing. But Sam says the budget will be less than last year, so forget about spending on an ace or extending young guys.

 

Just remember what Tom -- the voice of ownership -- told you: there's more to like about going to Fenway Park than just the Red Sox' won-loss record.

[mvp 78]

Henry says nothing. But Sam says the budget will be less than last year, so forget about spending on an ace or extending young guys.

 

Just remember what Tom -- the voice of ownership -- told you: there's more to like about going to Fenway Park than just the Red Sox' won-loss record.

 

I wasn't saying spending this year. I'm saying they need to manage the budget going forward so they can't buy guys like Monty. They will need to extend young players though because that's what other teams have done to manage payroll efficiently.

[moonslav59]

Right now, the starters in AAA look pretty weak especially once you move Winckowski back to the pen.

 

Max Castillo

Brandon Walter

Richard Fitts

Grant Gambrell

Brian Van Belle

 

Maybe Criswell replaces Van Belle to start 2024.

 

I wasn't trying to say we have great depth. I was just pointing out where Criswell might fall in that depth chart. (9th to 12th?)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I wasn't saying spending this year. I'm saying they need to manage the budget going forward so they can't buy guys like Monty. They will need to extend young players though because that's what other teams have done to manage payroll efficiently.

 

Remember back in the '90s when Cleveland was locking up all its good young players? The then-Tribe was starting a trend for all small-market teams (like Boston wants to be).

[Old Red]

Realistic is 75

Optimistic is 80

 

I think the team already seems pretty similar to what they had last season for the most part with a slight downgrade in the rotation Sale & Paxton vs Giolito. If they add another arm that pushes Houck to the pen, I'd probably change my mind.

 

The plan right now is for Bailey to fix all the starters they have now, so the rotation will be better.

[mvp 78]

Maybe Criswell replaces Van Belle to start 2024.

 

I wasn't trying to say we have great depth. I was just pointing out where Criswell might fall in that depth chart. (9th to 12th?)

 

At this point, Van Belle is just a warm body.

[moonslav59]

Remember back in the '90s when Cleveland was locking up all its good young players? The then-Tribe was starting a trend for all small-market teams (like Boston wants to be).

 

Locking up Bello and Casas makes a lot of sense. I might also try to extend Pivetta to 2-3 more years, but I'm not sure what he'd agree to.

 

Everyone else seems too risky to lock up beyond their years of control (Wong, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Crawford, Houck, Wink...)

[moonslav59]

At this point, Van Belle is just a warm body.

 

Agreed. That's why I think Criswell takes his slot. (I did not even list him on my SP depth chart.)

[mvp 78]

Remember back in the '90s when Cleveland was locking up all its good young players? The then-Tribe was starting a trend for all small-market teams (like Boston wants to be).

 

I believe they extended Manny and Thome, but not Lofton? I hated CLE back in the day. That damn Joey Belle.

[mvp 78]

The plan right now is for Bailey to fix all the starters they have now, so the rotation will be better.

 

No, they are going to fix all of their pitchers by turning them all into starters I think.

[mvp 78]

2015 - 5 Aces

2024 - 13 Aces

[mvp 78]

Locking up Bello and Casas makes a lot of sense. I might also try to extend Pivetta to 2-3 more years, but I'm not sure what he'd agree to.

 

Everyone else seems too risky to lock up beyond their years of control (Wong, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Crawford, Houck, Wink...)

 

Will they do a preemptive extension to Teel, Anthony or Mayer the way some other teams have?

[Old Red]

No, they are going to fix all of their pitchers by turning them all into starters I think.

 

Well they have plenty of tryout candidates.

[moonslav59]

Will they do a preemptive extension to Teel, Anthony or Mayer the way some other teams have?

 

I would be fine with it, especially Anthony and Teel.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I believe they extended Manny and Thome, but not Lofton? I hated CLE back in the day. That damn Joey Belle.

 

Baerga was another that got an extension. He was a star back then.

 

I don't see the Sox doing a Chourio, like the Brewers did for a guy who hasn't even made the majors. Then again, the Dodgers did same with Yo Yama.

 

But Bloom inked Whitlock after his Rule V bullpen stardom, so the Sox' 400-man front office must discuss such strategy. Casas would seem a natural.

 

If Brez did lock up the Big Three prospects, wouldn't that also make them even more tradeable? For example, Albies is "under control" for the next four years at $7M AAV... who wouldn't want an All-Star in his prime at those prices? Also have to wonder what a doormat like the Sox would give up for the great Oz instead of Grissom? More than Sale...

[mvp 78]

Baerga was another that got an extension. He was a star back then.

 

I don't see the Sox doing a Chourio, like the Brewers did for a guy who hasn't even made the majors. Then again, the Dodgers did same with Yo Yama.

 

But Bloom inked Whitlock after his Rule V bullpen stardom, so the Sox' 400-man front office must discuss such strategy. Casas would seem a natural.

 

If Brez did lock up the Big Three prospects, wouldn't that also make them even more tradeable? For example, Albies is "under control" for the next four years at $7M AAV... who wouldn't want an All-Star in his prime at those prices? Also have to wonder what a doormat like the Sox would give up for the great Oz instead of Grissom? More than Sale...

 

Former Sox legend Baerga had bad knees unfortunately.

[mvp 78]

@tylermilliken_

Bradford Doolittle has the Red Sox as his #1 breakout team in 2024 based on his model, The Breakout Index.

 

“Boston has had a combined record over .500 from all of its minor league teams in each of the three seasons since the 2020 pandemic season. Our system weighs these seasons in reverse order to reflect how prospects progress toward the majors. The Red Sox dovetail perfectly with a three-year winning percentage progression of .588, .529 and .502. The success of the Boston farm system is also reflected by consensus prospect rankings.”

 

He compares them to the 2019 Twins.

 

ESPN+ article:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39336308/mlb-top-5-breakout-teams-2024-red-sox-mets

[notin]

Baerga was another that got an extension. He was a star back then.

 

I don't see the Sox doing a Chourio, like the Brewers did for a guy who hasn't even made the majors. Then again, the Dodgers did same with Yo Yama.

 

But Bloom inked Whitlock after his Rule V bullpen stardom, so the Sox' 400-man front office must discuss such strategy. Casas would seem a natural.

 

If Brez did lock up the Big Three prospects, wouldn't that also make them even more tradeable? For example, Albies is "under control" for the next four years at $7M AAV... who wouldn't want an All-Star in his prime at those prices? Also have to wonder what a doormat like the Sox would give up for the great Oz instead of Grissom? More than Sale...

 

Some of those pre-MLB extensions do backfire. I’m looking at you, Scott Kingery…

[Randy Red Sox]

Realistic is 75

Optimistic is 80

 

I think the team already seems pretty similar to what they had last season for the most part with a slight downgrade in the rotation Sale & Paxton vs Giolito. If they add another arm that pushes Houck to the pen, I'd probably change my mind.

 

I expect the Sox to sign a veteran SP or 2 on the cheap just before ST.

[notin]

2015 - 5 Aces

2024 - 13 Aces

 

Never play poker against a man with 13 aces…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@tylermilliken_

Bradford Doolittle has the Red Sox as his #1 breakout team in 2024 based on his model, The Breakout Index.

 

“Boston has had a combined record over .500 from all of its minor league teams in each of the three seasons since the 2020 pandemic season. Our system weighs these seasons in reverse order to reflect how prospects progress toward the majors. The Red Sox dovetail perfectly with a three-year winning percentage progression of .588, .529 and .502. The success of the Boston farm system is also reflected by consensus prospect rankings.”

 

He compares them to the 2019 Twins.

 

ESPN+ article:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39336308/mlb-top-5-breakout-teams-2024-red-sox-mets

 

They're so young, the breakout is likely to be caused by lactose overdose (but never hormones).