A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[sk7326]

Here are the Sox largest current contracts. Which do you think are good, bad or ugly?

 

$313M/10 Devers (to '33)

$145M/5 Sale (to '24 w option for '25)

$140M/6 Story (to '27 w option for '28)

$90M/5 Yoshida (to '27)

$32M/2 Jansen (to '24)

$19M/4 Whitlock (to '26)

$17.5M/2 Martin (to '24)

 

Arb Est

$8M Pivetta (last arb)

$5.9 O'Neill (last arb)

 

We have a lot coming off the books after 2024. CBT:

$25.6 Sale

$16.0 Jansen

$8.00 Pivetta

$7.50 Martin

$5.85 O'Neill

Total is about $53M

 

There is no excuse to not sign a couple or 3 guys to longer term deals.

 

Plus, after 2024, we should start seeing some real help from the farm, if things work out well. Lot's of low cost players, and the current younger group will be on early arb contracts.

 

 

 

 

Good: Devers (and will get better), Whitlock (if he just pitches out of the bullpen), Martin (though a regression candidate)

Meh: Story (underwater so far, but won't take much to be neutral), Jansen (while I am philosophically against spending lots of money on a 1-inning closer, Jansen has been fine)

Bad: Yoshida (though if his bat develops, it won't be too bad)

Ugly: Sale (we knew the arm was wobbly when they re-upped him, and of course he has been victim to every issue this side of Bubonic Plague - but if he is a 3 win pitcher this year, it becomes more tolerable)

[mvp 78]

I agree. I think Pivetta fits the 5 role better than the others.

Houck might be better, since we should be able to pull him after 18 batters, with Pivetta, Crawford and Whitlock in the pen, but I still like Pivetta as the #5.

 

One other "long guy" that may continue to surprise is Murphy. Let's see how he starts the year in AAA.

 

Murphy is really an afterthought for me. I just don't see much there. I know his statcast page looks interesting because he limited hard contact, but his OPSa for RHB was still 782 and he wasn't really a LHB killer. When you look at his career numbers he's always had high ERA's except for '22 in AA when his xFIP was still almost 4. I wonder if Murphy and Walter are only on the 40 man because of a lack of better LHP options in the org.

 

LHP Projected per SoxProspects

AAA: Walter/Muphy/Booser

AA: Penrod/Benitez/Olivarez/Cellucci

A+: Rogers/Wu-Yellend/Dean/Landry

A-: Early/Mullins/Fogell/Butler/Ingrassia

FCL: NONE!

DSL: De La Cruz/Sanchez (both rosters)

 

Of those guys, I guess Penrod, Olivarez, Rogers, Early and Mullins are kind of interesting. Penrod is the post-indy ball guy with control issues, but was a potential Rule 5 pick. Olivarez is the Mata-esque signing the Sox made (injury history, once highly regarded prospect, high BB rate). Rogers is a bulk reliever like Murphy most likely. Early could stick as a starter due to his frame and mix. Mullins can't stay healthy, but strikes everyone out. Early is probably the only guy we're still talking about seriously in a few years.

[moonslav59]

Good: Devers (and will get better), Whitlock (if he just pitches out of the bullpen), Martin (though a regression candidate)

Meh: Story (underwater so far, but won't take much to be neutral), Jansen (while I am philosophically against spending lots of money on a 1-inning closer, Jansen has been fine)

Bad: Yoshida (though if his bat develops, it won't be too bad)

Ugly: Sale (we knew the arm was wobbly when they re-upped him, and of course he has been victim to every issue this side of Bubonic Plague - but if he is a 3 win pitcher this year, it becomes more tolerable)

 

Martin never regresses.

[mvp 78]

Martin never regresses.

 

'23 1.05 ERA, 2.90 xFIP

 

There's going to be some amount of regression. Most likely, his ERA will be in the low 3's.

[moonslav59]

'23 1.05 ERA, 2.90 xFIP

 

There's going to be some amount of regression. Most likely, his ERA will be in the low 3's.

 

I would not bet on his FIP dropping.

[mvp 78]

I would not bet on his FIP dropping.

 

He was lucky with the ERA in '23, he'll likely be a little unlucky in '24.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Martin never regresses.

 

And he'll never lose all his hair, his muscle mass, nor his spouse's desire for him. But he will gain a paunch in the belly and some empathetic pals and posters online... as long as he doesn't start plunking first batters he faces in the big toe (we know he won't walk them).

[moonslav59]

We keep hearing talk of trading for Edward Cabrera, but how about thinking bigger?

 

2022-2023:

Luzardo (279 IP) 5.9 fWAR with 3 years of team control

81 ERA-, 3.40 FIP, 3.6 K/BB

 

Garrett (248 IP) 4.4 fWAR with 5 years of team control

83 ERA-, 3.63 FIP, 18.7, 4.6 K/BB

 

BTV Values:

63.3 Luzardo (91 AFV-28 est. salary)

57.7 Garrett (103 AFV-45.5 est. salary)

 

I'm sure MIA will try to demand Bello, but maybe they'd take Mayer plus ____.

 

Here are some BTV numbers they may want:

47.5 Bello (would defeat the purpose of we did this)

44.5 Mayer

41.8 Anthony

34.0 Duran

24.4 Crawford

22.1 Houck

21.5 Bleis (too far away?)

17.8 Teel

13.3 Yorke (They have a 2Bman.)

12.3 Rafaela

9.7 Schreiber

9.1 Wink

7.8 Abreu

5.7 Wikelman

3.5 Perales

2.3 Mata (I added him as a possible Roster clearing addition.)

 

In theory, Mayer and Rafaela or Mayer, Rafaela and mato could get one of these two, but I'm not sure MIA covers Rafaela.

 

BTV claims Mayer and Duran is a big overpay, but is it? Would you do it?

 

How about Mayer and Crawford or Houck?

 

Mayer, Crawford/Houck and Mata?

 

I'd like to see garrett and Imanaga plus a good all around 2Bman (RH'd bat.)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

He was lucky with the ERA in '23, he'll likely be a little unlucky in '24.

 

I think his metrics will not decline, but yes, that ERA should regress.

[mvp 78]

And he'll never lose all his hair, his muscle mass, nor his spouse's desire for him. But he will gain a paunch in the belly and some empathetic pals and posters online... as long as he doesn't start plunking first batters he faces in the big toe (we know he won't walk them).

 

Just takes some faith, trust and sprinkling of pixie dust.

[moonslav59]

2024 ZiPS Projections for the Sox:

 

FWAR

2.6 Bello

2.2 Sale

2.1 Pivetta

1.8 Crawford

1.5 Houck

1.0 Murphy+Walter+Drohan

4.1 Pen

 

3.6 3B- Devers

3.4 SS- Story

2.4 1B- Casas

2.4 DH- Yoshida

2.3 RF- Dugo

2.0 2B- EValdez & Co.

1.9 LF- Abreu/Yoshi

1.9 CF- Duran/Rafaela

1.5 C- Wong/McGuire

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

The Red Sox look like an 80–86 win team or so. That kind of team can surprise, and with the coins flipping a bit different last year, they could have made a real wild card run. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays are a clear tier above them, though, and when all is said and done by winter’s end, I think the Yankees may be as well. But that last question is a tale for another ZiPS entry.

[Old Red]

He was lucky with the ERA in '23, he'll likely be a little unlucky in '24.

 

I worry more about Jansen who’s a year older, and his body is a year creakier than I do about Martin.

[moonslav59]

I worry more about Jansen who’s a year older, and his body is a year creakier than I do about Martin.

 

Me, too, despite Martin being almost 2 years older.

[mvp 78]

I worry more about Jansen who’s a year older, and his body is a year creakier than I do about Martin.

 

If Jansen fails, there are enough in house replacements for a one inning role (Whitlock, Houck).

[moonslav59]

If Jansen fails, there are enough in house replacements for a one inning role (Whitlock, Houck).

 

Maybe Martin could be the next Uehara.

[Larry Cook]

 

I'd like to see garrett and Imanaga plus a good all around 2Bman (RH'd bat.)

 

 

 

I really really like this plan!!! This would be amazing if we got these two pitchers

[moonslav59]

I really really like this plan!!! This would be amazing if we got these two pitchers

 

This would likely keep us significantly under the tax lline, so we should be able to do even more: like add a 3rd SP'er or an upgrade at Catcher or RF- maybe 2 of these upgrades!

[moonslav59]

If we miss out on all the big contract pitchers, might we spend some of the budget space on a decent player who is overpaid?

 

BTV

AFV/Salary/Surplus

 

MIA

103/46/+58 Garrett SP (5 yrs)

91/28/+63 Luzardo SP (3)

33/8/+25 Rogers SP (3)

32/16/+16 ECabrera SP (5)

26/9/+15 AJ Puk RP (3)

14/9/+5 Berti UT (2)

 

PIT

89/39/+50 O Cruz SS(5 yrs)

a48/15/+33 M Keller SP (2)

47/24/+24 Bednar RP (3)

 

89

 

LAA

178/249/-70 Trout CF

92/47/+45 Detmers SP (4 yrs)

17/26/-9.0 Sandoval (2 yrs)

 

MIL

96/137/-41 Yelich CF (5 yrs)

49/15/+34 Burnes SP (1 yr)

 

CLE

126/126/0 Gimenez 2B/SS (7 yrs)

18/12/+6 Bieber (1)

 

WSH

79/33/+47 Abrams SS (5)

60/30/+30 Gore SP (4)

 

KCR

12/44/-32 S Perez C (2)

47/24/23 Singer SP (3)

 

DET

15/98/-83 J Baez SS/2B (4)

 

MIN

146/192/-48 Correa SS (6)

51/28/+23 B Ober SP (4)

32/23/+9 Polanco 2B (2)

 

SEA

138/122/+17 Luis Castillo (5 yrs)

108/42/+66 Gilbert SP (4 yrs)

 

TBR

53/29/+24 Eflin SP (2)

 

CWS

145/68/+77 L Roberts (4)

'62/22/+40 Cease SP (2)

 

I'm sure there are more...

 

This is one way to spend money without signing free agents.

 

I'd like to see us go after someone with 3-5 years of team control, like....

 

2022-2023:

Luzardo (279 IP) 5.9 fWAR with 3 years of team control

81 ERA-, 3.40 FIP, 3.6 K/BB

 

Garrett (248 IP) 4.4 fWAR with 5 years of team control

83 ERA-, 3.63 FIP, 18.7, 4.6 K/BB

 

BTV Values:

63.3 Luzardo (91 AFV-28 est. salary)

57.7 Garrett (103 AFV-45.5 est. salary)

 

I'm sure MIA will try to demand Bello, but maybe they'd take Mayer plus ____.

 

Here are some BTV numbers they may want:

47.5 Bello (would defeat the purpose of we did this)

44.5 Mayer

41.8 Anthony

34.0 Duran

24.4 Crawford

22.1 Houck

21.5 Bleis (too far away?)

17.8 Teel

13.3 Yorke (They have a 2Bman.)

12.3 Rafaela

9.7 Schreiber

9.1 Wink

7.8 Abreu

5.7 Wikelman

3.5 Perales

2.3 Mata (I added him as a possible Roster clearing addition.)

 

In theory, Mayer and Rafaela or Mayer, Rafaela and mato could get one of these two, but I'm not sure MIA covers Rafaela.

 

BTV claims Mayer and Duran is a big overpay, but is it? Would you do it?

 

How about Mayer and Crawford or Houck?

 

Mayer, Crawford/Houck and Mata?

 

I'd like to see garrett and Imanaga plus a good all around 2Bman (RH'd bat.)

Edited December 15, 2023 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

I worry more about Jansen who’s a year older, and his body is a year creakier than I do about Martin.

 

I do too - that said, I think his role is pretty easy to replace.

[sk7326]

If Jansen fails, there are enough in house replacements for a one inning role (Whitlock, Houck).

 

Houck in particular would be really interesting.

[redsoxrules]

Jansen was garbage pitching in back to back games last year. He was only effective pitching on rest. This should be a concern for the up coming season

[Bellhorn04]

Jansen was garbage pitching in back to back games last year. He was only effective pitching on rest. This should be a concern for the up coming season

 

He is what he is. Gets the job done most of the time.

[mvp 78]

Jansen was garbage pitching in back to back games last year. He was only effective pitching on rest. This should be a concern for the up coming season

 

Have someone else that can close out games too like Whitlock or Houck? Need to have someone ready for next year anyway. May as well figure out an in house option and save some $$$.

[moonslav59]

Have someone else that can close out games too like Whitlock or Houck? Need to have someone ready for next year anyway. May as well figure out an in house option and save some $$$.

 

I would think one from Houck or Whitlock could grow into that role, nicely. Knowing you are in for just 1 IP can really add to the focus and effort needed.

 

I could see using Martin, in 2024, on days Jansen is not available, but I like the idea of giving one of those two a shot, and maybe keeping martin at set-up, where he excels.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

Have someone else that can close out games too like Whitlock or Houck? Need to have someone ready for next year anyway. May as well figure out an in house option and save some $$$.

 

because saving money is the main goal of this team

[Dipre]

because saving money is the main goal of this team

 

You mean making money.

[Bellhorn04]

You mean making money.

 

Both.

[Dipre]

Both.

 

Why would they want to save money? Why would I make a massive investment like a baseball team to save money?

[Bellhorn04]

Why would they want to save money? Why would I make a massive investment like a baseball team to save money?

 

A million saved is a million earned.

 

It all started with the decision not to pay Mookie. Henry had some sort of Eureka moment that he had figured out how to do things a lot smarter. That's what led to replacing Dombrowski with Bloom with Breslow.

 

The whole thing is painfully obvious, unfortunately.

[Dipre]

A million saved is a million earned.

 

It all started with the decision not to pay Mookie. Henry had some sort of Eureka moment that he had figured out how to do things a lot smarter. That's what led to replacing Dombrowski with Bloom with Breslow.

 

The whole thing is painfully obvious, unfortunately.

 

We should just stop posting here then, since it's clear they won't spend and the team sucks.