A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Now it’s 2026 till we can make a strong run??

 

Who said that?

[moonslav59]

The Sox had a winning formula, but they decided it was too expensive and wasn't " sustainable ", so they decided to change it. Now, they are still trying to figure out what is best. And the fans are confused and disgruntled.

 

You do know, JH stopped spending several times under Theo, Ben, DD and Bloom.

[mvp 78]

You do know, JH stopped spending several times under Theo, Ben, DD and Bloom.

 

He didn't turtle the way he is right now.

[Old Red]

You do know, JH stopped spending several times under Theo, Ben, DD and Bloom.

 

The amount of money has gone up big time just the past few years. Would Bogey have gotten $280M even 5 years ago? There are more big spenders now than ever before, and I don’t think JH wants to play that game with them, so what JH has done before in no way is a sign of what he will do today. The game has changed, and i don’t think JH has changed with it.

[Bellhorn04]

You do know, JH stopped spending several times under Theo, Ben, DD and Bloom.

 

He didn't turtle the way he is right now.

 

He never dropped to middle of the pack in team payroll until 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox had a winning formula, but they decided it was too expensive and wasn't " sustainable ", so they decided to change it. Now, they are still trying to figure out what is best. And the fans are confused and disgruntled.

 

"confused and disgruntled" is an apt description.

[Old Red]

Did you miss the first part? WOW!

 

I said "We add 2 SP'ers," then maybe trade a top prospect at a later time. Why is that so absurd?

 

When I mentioned adding 3 SP'er, you and others said it was a pipe dream. Now, you insist we trade a top prospect after signing 2 top SP'er.

 

WOW, wow, WOW!

 

You’re on the assumption we sign 2-3 SP, and I do not. I’ve been saying right along that trades are going to have to be made to get the pitching. Gray was overpaid at $25M, and Monty, and Snell will be too. Not, because they are so good, but, because they are available, and there are a big need out there for many teams, and some of hem are big spenders. Making trades may be the best option, and yes that ,ay come down to trading one, or two of those precious top prospects.

[Randy Red Sox]

Who said that?

 

i believe you said something about saving the prospects for a big push in 25 or 26 or did Get that wrong?

[moonslav59]

You’re on the assumption we sign 2-3 SP, and I do not. I’ve been saying right along that trades are going to have to be made to get the pitching. Gray was overpaid at $25M, and Monty, and Snell will be too. Not, because they are so good, but, because they are available, and there are a big need out there for many teams, and some of hem are big spenders. Making trades may be the best option, and yes that ,ay come down to trading one, or two of those precious top prospects.

 

My point was made in relation to an ongoing conversation, whereby I made assumption that if we added 2 SP'ers via free agency, we would not necessarily have to trade a top 3 prospect, this winter.

 

I have already said many times, I do not expect anything, this winter. I think the sham will continue. I'll believe it when I see it, and on and on.

 

I hope we add 3 SP'ers, but I think the odds on that are zero to a half percent.

 

I would not bet on us adding 2 quality SP'ers. I am NOT assuming we get two good SP'ers.

 

I don't even expect Monty.

 

Maybe we get Lugo and Lorenzen. That's about what I expect.

[moonslav59]

He didn't turtle the way he is right now.

 

Other teams have passed us. JH stopped spending from the Sale, Bogey and Nate extensions ('18-'19 off season) to the Story signing in spring '22. That three year period was longer or "turtling" more than any stretch of his tenure in Boston.

 

I would not call 2022 and 2023 an example of turtling. Our 2022 CB Tax budget was the third highest in Sox history and just $3M from #2. The 2023 budget was 4th highest, even higher than DD's first 2 years and by $17M and $30M!

 

No, he has not gone all in, but he did go over the tax line once and came relatively close, last year. The Devers extension was signed, last year. That kicks in in 2024. That is no turtle.

 

I'm not making excuses for JH, but he did begin spending more and more, starting with Story. He just hasn't kept up with about 5-10 teams that passed us. He may need to for us to ever get relevant, again.

 

He's fallen behind the times. He may never try to get into the now, again. If he goes up to the first tax line ($237M), this year, it will be the third highest payroll, ever. If he goes to the second line ($257M), which he may decide to do, it would be the highest ever by about $13M. It might still not be enough.

 

$256-257M might get us back into the top 4-6 in team budgets, but who knows, these days?

[moonslav59]

"confused and disgruntled" is an apt description.

 

Agreed, with more emphasis on disgruntled.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Here are the non-roster invitees the Sox added to the Spring Training roster: Pitchers Jorge Benitez, Cam Booser, Frank German and Helcris Olivarez, infielder Jamie Westbrook, outfielder Mark Contreras and infielder/outfielder Eddy Alvarez.

[sk7326]

You do know, JH stopped spending several times under Theo, Ben, DD and Bloom.

 

Pulling back a bit on spending is one thing - but they also had Papi around, and Pedroia and Youk taking big league jobs and doing it at a star level. I mean, under Theo they had playoff caliber teams every single season.

 

What bewilders fans now is that Henry effectively did a slow motion 1997 Marlins with the 2018 Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Pulling back a bit on spending is one thing - but they also had Papi around, and Pedroia and Youk taking big league jobs and doing it at a star level. I mean, under Theo they had playoff caliber teams every single season.

 

What bewilders fans now is that Henry effectively did a slow motion 1997 Marlins with the 2018 Red Sox.

 

I'm not arguing these teams are great. I was just addressing points made about his spending.

 

He has cut back, several times. I think the ring in 2013 was not really planned, but yes, those teams were better than 2020-2023 and probably 2019, too.

 

One big problem is how many times we have swung and missed on our biggest signings, compared to the Theo era. DD struck gold at a great rate, too, but the losing stretches, to me, was more of a result of poor spending than cut spending. Theo, Ben and DD all saw cut spending for at least a year. They all won a ring. (Theo 2.)

 

How many of these big signings have clearly worked out well?

 

217 Price '18 DD

154 AGon '12 Ben (extension)

145 Sale '20 DD (extension)

142 Crawford '11 Theo

140 Story '22 Bloom

120 Bogey '20 DD (extension w opt out)

110 JD '18 DD

110 Pedey '14 Ben (extension)

95 Pablito '15 Ben

90 Yoshida '23 Bloom

88 HRam '15 Ben

83 Lackey '10 Theo

83 Porcello '15 Ben

 

[sk7326]

I'm not arguing these teams are great. I was just addressing points made about his spending.

 

He has cut back, several times. I think the ring in 2013 was not really planned, but yes, those teams were better than 2020-2023 and probably 2019, too.

 

One big problem is how many times we have swung and missed on our biggest signings, compared to the Theo era. DD struck gold at a great rate, too, but the losing stretches, to me, was more of a result of poor spending than cut spending. Theo, Ben and DD all saw cut spending for at least a year. They all won a ring. (Theo 2.)

 

How many of these big signings have clearly worked out well?

 

217 Price '18 DD

154 AGon '12 Ben (extension)

145 Sale '20 DD (extension)

142 Crawford '11 Theo

140 Story '22 Bloom

120 Bogey '20 DD (extension w opt out)

110 JD '18 DD

110 Pedey '14 Ben (extension)

95 Pablito '15 Ben

90 Yoshida '23 Bloom

88 HRam '15 Ben

83 Lackey '10 Theo

83 Porcello '15 Ben

 

 

It is the nature that most of the big contracts can be losers. Of the list here, Porcello and Bogaerts were wins. The others were outright bad to "good process, bad results".

 

And - to be fair - I do think a lot of the complaints about the lack of spending is also not retaining good players. As far as my own entitled bellyaching - it has principally been about cutting bait after 2019 instead of building on a pretty good core.

[moonslav59]

It is the nature that most of the big contracts can be losers. Of the list here, Porcello and Bogaerts were wins. The others were outright bad to "good process, bad results".

 

And - to be fair - I do think a lot of the complaints about the lack of spending is also not retaining good players. As far as my own entitled bellyaching - it has principally been about cutting bait after 2019 instead of building on a pretty good core.

 

One could argue the Porcello contract was just okay, but I agree.

 

The interesting thing is, that from the great stretch of winning, we still let a lot of good to great players walk. (Yes, a few past prime, but some, not really.)

 

Nixon

DLowe

Nomar

Mueller

Pedro

Manny

Youk

Papelbon

Damon

Beltre

Agon

Beckett

Jake

 

Lester, Lester, Doubront, Peavy & Miller, the year after 2013.

 

Hell, some cried we let Masterson go.

 

These are guys let go or traded before DD & Bloom.

[moonslav59]

It is the nature that most of the big contracts can be losers.

 

All the top 11 signings were from Crawford in 2011 and afterwards.

The whole top 13 were from Lackey in 2010 and beyond.

 

Of course, contract costs skyrocketed, and Manny was signed before the JH era.

Those big signings, back then, when adjusted for inflation and MLB inflation were better. Papi, Pedro, Damon, Foulke, Mueller, Beltre, Beckett. Sure, we had some bad ones, but out hit rate was much higher, so we could absorb them. The farm pipeline helped, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The obvious miss was letting Beltre become a Hall of Famer for someone else.

 

The subtle miss -- that some of us predicted at the time -- was not resigning Lowe, who went on to lead the NL in games started four times.

 

And the Pedroia extension, as much as budget fans complained about it, was initially a win. Pedey continued to star at what was a below-market rate (compared to his contemporary, Cano)... until being assassinated by Machado.

[moonslav59]

The obvious miss was letting Beltre become a Hall of Famer for someone else.

 

The subtle miss -- that some of us predicted at the time -- was not resigning Lowe, who went on to lead the NL in games started four times.

 

And the Pedroia extension, as much as budget fans complained about it, was initially a win. Pedey continued to star at what was a below-market rate (compared to his contemporary, Cano)... until being assassinated by Machado.

 

Yes.

 

My point is, we let stars go, before. We had spending lulls, before. There was not a big problem with that, until we stopped winning rings.

 

Two sets of last place finishes in 3 of 4 years set off a hunt for the reason why.

 

IMO, it has not been just one thing, but letting stars go is not high on my list, except Betts.

 

Spending cuts hurt the team from 2019-2021, but we had 2-3 year stretches of that before. (Being coupled with losing Betts & others hurt.)

 

To me, the main reasons were:

 

A weaker than weak farm pipeline, highlighted by the stretch from Devers to Bello/Casas.

 

Poor winter budget spending with too little focus on spending on pitching.

 

Letting stars go and cutting winter budgets.

 

A choice to roll the dice on too many oft-injured players.

 

The perfect storm of all these factors went beyond what FEMA could fix.

Edited December 12, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

MLBTR reports...

 

Here are the non-roster invitees the Sox added to the Spring Training roster: Pitchers Jorge Benitez, Cam Booser, Frank German and Helcris Olivarez, infielder Jamie Westbrook, outfielder Mark Contreras and infielder/outfielder Eddy Alvarez.

 

Sorry, I'm more of a Boof Bonser guy.

[Old Red]

Sorry, I'm more of a Boof Bonser guy.

 

I thought it would be more of a Gene BRAbender guy.

[Dipre]

One could argue the Porcello contract was just okay, but I agree.

 

The interesting thing is, that from the great stretch of winning, we still let a lot of good to great players walk. (Yes, a few past prime, but some, not really.)

 

Nixon

DLowe

Nomar

Mueller

Pedro

Manny

Youk

Papelbon

Damon

Beltre

Agon

Beckett

Jake

 

Lester, Lester, Doubront, Peavy & Miller, the year after 2013.

 

Hell, some cried we let Masterson go.

 

These are guys let go or traded before DD & Bloom.

 

Manny, Nomar, AGon and Beckett were traded.

[mvp 78]

Manny, Nomar, AGon and Beckett were traded.

 

Youk was traded too.

[moonslav59]

Manny, Nomar, AGon and Beckett were traded.

 

Yes, we forced many to "walk." Others chose to walk or were never offered a new contract.

[sk7326]

One could argue the Porcello contract was just okay, but I agree.

 

The interesting thing is, that from the great stretch of winning, we still let a lot of good to great players walk. (Yes, a few past prime, but some, not really.)

 

Nixon

DLowe

Nomar

Mueller

Pedro

Manny

Youk

Papelbon

Damon

Beltre

Agon

Beckett

Jake

 

Lester, Lester, Doubront, Peavy & Miller, the year after 2013.

 

Hell, some cried we let Masterson go.

 

These are guys let go or traded before DD & Bloom.

 

Yes - and they had strong contingencies for most of them. The current era basically let Betts and Bogaerts leave without a real replacement plan.

[moonslav59]

Yes - and they had strong contingencies for most of them. The current era basically let Betts and Bogaerts leave without a real replacement plan.

 

No doubt. On a lesser level, we let Kimbrell and Kelly go with no contingency, and the wheels began to come off.

 

My point was, we won before while letting top stars go. That cannot be the only reason we aren't winning, now.

 

It's a combo of...

 

letting stars go without replacing them in kind or even close to in kind.

cutting the budget radically, then talking 3 years to get back to the 2018-2019 level.

poor decisions on building up the 26 man roster.

concentrating more on the 40 and farm than the 26.

going for quantity over quality.

an emphasis on oft-injured players...

 

I'm sure I missed some major factors.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No doubt. On a lesser level, we let Kimbrell and Kelly go with no contingency, and the wheels began to come off.

 

My point was, we won before while letting top stars go. That cannot be the only reason we aren't winning, now.

 

It's a combo of...

 

letting stars go without replacing them in kind or even close to in kind.

cutting the budget radically, then talking 3 years to get back to the 2018-2019 level.

poor decisions on building up the 26 man roster.

concentrating more on the 40 and farm than the 26.

going for quantity over quality.

an emphasis on oft-injured players...

 

I'm sure I missed some major factors.

 

Us -- The Enablers.

 

They know we're such fanatics we'll still post daily, even if they suck... at least to complain.

 

But we don't like being miserable; we'd rather cheer. I was gleeful watching the game Diekman struckout three Yankees to save the day.

 

And then in his next 10 outings vs. the first batter he faced, he hit the guy in the toe.

[moonslav59]

Us -- The Enablers.

 

They know we're such fanatics we'll still post daily, even if they suck... at least to complain.

 

But we don't like being miserable; we'd rather cheer. I was gleeful watching the game Diekman struckout three Yankees to save the day.

 

And then in his next 10 outings vs. the first batter he faced, he hit the guy in the toe.

 

LMAO!

 

I certainly prefer to watch us win more than we lose, and win an occasional ring, but I will always watch and root for the Sox- no matter what.

 

I don't go to games much, anymore.

 

I don't by jerseys.

 

I don't expect us to win every 5 years, or even 10 or 15. I hope we do. I think we can and should, if we spend top 6-12, every year.

 

I'll be upset when we don't. That's about it.

[sk7326]

No doubt. On a lesser level, we let Kimbrell and Kelly go with no contingency, and the wheels began to come off.

 

My point was, we won before while letting top stars go. That cannot be the only reason we aren't winning, now.

 

It's a combo of...

 

letting stars go without replacing them in kind or even close to in kind.

cutting the budget radically, then talking 3 years to get back to the 2018-2019 level.

poor decisions on building up the 26 man roster.

concentrating more on the 40 and farm than the 26.

going for quantity over quality.

an emphasis on oft-injured players...

 

I'm sure I missed some major factors.

 

The Red Sox found a way to both spend a decent amount of money while being cheap at the same time.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox found a way to both spend a decent amount of money while being cheap at the same time.

 

Better GMs- better choices.

Farm pipeline for the big club and/or trading.

 

I think there has been a willingness to go that extra step, when the window seems to be open wide. I'm not sure, if that is gone and JH has changed, OR JH just hasn't felt we are close enough to take the checkbook plunge.

 

I thought 2022 was a good time for it, as Bogey, JD and Nate's times were up.

I thought maybe 2023 would be the splurge year.

 

I've given up expecting it to happen.

I still hope it does, but I won't believe it until it happens.