A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

You mean like the projections a month that Yamamoto will command a contract of $200M that all of sudden will now demand $300M?

 

I say with some pride that Talksoxers were ahead of the pack in predicting that the $225 mill projection would get blown way past.

[notin]

I say with some pride that Talksoxers were ahead of the pack in predicting that the $225 mill projection would get blown way past.

 

But how many of us agree with the current projections of Ohtani approaching $600mill?

[mvp 78]

But how many of us agree with the current projections of Ohtani approaching $600mill?

 

I don't see it for a guy with 2 TJS unless there are terms about innings. If he gets a fully guaranteed 600M contract with the 75/25 chance he's a DH long term, that's a horrible bet.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But how many of us agree with the current projections of Ohtani approaching $600mill?

 

Not many, because most of us would rather spend it on guys we know will pitch again soon.

 

But imagine if Henry approved of the $600M... good thing he canned Bloom first, because he'd be at the front of the GM line to sign someone with the promise of waiting many a moon before the star could shine again.

 

On second thought, maybe Bloom would just take the dough and blow it on 60 rehabbing has-beens on one-year deals...

[notin]

Not many, because most of us would rather spend it on guys we know will pitch again soon.

 

But imagine if Henry approved of the $600M... good thing he canned Bloom first, because he'd be at the front of the GM line to sign someone with the promise of waiting many a moon before the star could shine again.

 

On second thought, maybe Bloom would just take the dough and blow it on 60 rehabbing has-beens on one-year deals...

 

Oh he isn’t getting that money from Boston. Those will likely be either Dodger Blue dollars or loonies…

[notin]

I don't see it for a guy with 2 TJS unless there are terms about innings. If he gets a fully guaranteed 600M contract with the 75/25 chance he's a DH long term, that's a horrible bet.

 

The Talking Heads on MLB Network keep throwing that number out there. We can just wait to see what happens when pen hits paper, but I’m not sure it’s an insanely unrealistic as it should be…

[moonslav59]

Oh he isn’t getting that money from Boston. Those will likely be either Dodger Blue dollars or loonies…

 

Ohtani would not get $280M from BOS.

[Larry Cook]

If the Red Sox sign inamanga and Seth lugo, is our starting pitching better than last year????

[moonslav59]

If the Red Sox sign inamanga and Seth lugo, is our starting pitching better than last year????

 

They'd be replacing...

 

19 GS Paxton 4.50 (96 IP/ 4.68 FIP)

 

9 GS Kluber 7.04 (55 IP/ 7.11 FIP)

 

What do you think?

 

[moonslav59]

If the Red Sox sign inamanga and Seth lugo, is our starting pitching better than last year????

 

I'm hoping for better than that. If we go that low, I'd hope we sign 3 SP'ers.

[Duran Is The Man]

I'm hoping for better than that. If we go that low, I'd hope we sign 3 SP'ers.

 

for a team that desperately needs starting pitching, they appear to be content just sitting on the sidelines.

[moonslav59]

for a team that desperately needs starting pitching, they appear to be content just sitting on the sidelines.

 

Based on not signing Nola, Gray, ERod and Maeda?

[moonslav59]

I know the vast majority of posters and experts would doubt tyhe Sox sign 3 SP'ers, but if we miss out on the top 2 tier pitchers, would anyone be okay with sign 3 from this group?

 

Stroman

Imanaga

Lugo

Clevinger

Giolito

Wacha

 

If yes, which 3. (If no, which 3 do you prefer?)

 

[notin]

Based on not signing Nola, Gray, ERod and Maeda?

 

 

Never wanted Nola and Maeda anyway. Although I did think Nola would sign a bigger deal…

[notin]

Ohtani would not get $280M from BOS.

 

If any team offered Ohtani $280mill, he’s probably tell them for that amount he won’t pitch and will only bat right-handed…

[Randy Red Sox]

If the Red Sox sign inamanga and Seth lugo, is our starting pitching better than last year????

 

don't know much about Inamanga but combined with Lugo the SP would likely be better but not good enough to move up in the AL East

[Randy Red Sox]

Never wanted Nola and Maeda anyway. Although I did think Nola would sign a bigger deal…

 

so who did/do you want?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox may be relying on hope for young position players to have break-out seasons: Casas or Duran making an All-Star team, Abreu or Rafaela vying for Rookie of the Year votes, even Teel providing a spark as a late call-up...

 

Imanaga, Stroman and Wacha (coast-to-coast good the past two years) -- would all fortify the rotation, but probably not supply the starting consistency needed to pace the bullpen and boost the Sox into serious contention. No one goes seven innings anymore, but is it asking too much to just complete six; what now constitutes a quality start?

 

Spending big on more "elite" starting pitchers may not make sense in the short run, but having the stability of a stopper or two at the top of the rotation establishes a foundation for longterm success. Inspiring your teammates -- who expect to win every time you toe the rubber -- changes the very culture of a dugout, clubhouse and ultimately, the fanbase.

[notin]

so who did/do you want?

 

Gray…

[Bellhorn04]

I know the vast majority of posters and experts would doubt tyhe Sox sign 3 SP'ers, but if we miss out on the top 2 tier pitchers, would anyone be okay with sign 3 from this group?

 

Stroman

Imanaga

Lugo

Clevinger

Giolito

Wacha

 

If yes, which 3. (If no, which 3 do you prefer?)

 

 

No, that's a major yuck. Although I don't know much about Imanaga.

[notin]

No, that's a major yuck. Although I don't know much about Imanaga.

 

Did you just yuck on Wacha??!?

[moonslav59]

If any team offered Ohtani $280mill, he’s probably tell them for that amount he won’t pitch and will only bat right-handed…

 

I'm not saying that's what he'd accept, but to be that's my top pay for a DH.

[moonslav59]

No, that's a major yuck. Although I don't know much about Imanaga.

 

I agree. We need an ace not a bunch of 2-4's.

 

I do think signing 3 from Stroman, Lugo, Imanaga or maybe Wacha/Clevinger would make our rotation significantly better than last year. Need I remind some just how bad our starters were, last year. Hell a 4.10 ERA is a 1/2 to 2 run improvement over much of what we saw in 2023.

 

ERA as SP, only.... (listed by most GS)

 

4.24 Bello 28 GS (in the '24 rotation)

4.51 Crawford 23

5.01 Houck 21

4.30 Sale 21 (in '24 rotation)

4.50 Paxton 19

4.66 Pivetta 16

5.23 Whitlock 10

6.26 Kluber 9

 

We had 14 GS by pitchers with an SP ERA of .623 or higher.

We had another 31 GS by SP'ers with an ERA between 5.00 and 5.25.

We had another 60 between 4.50 and 4.66.

 

I'm certainly hoping we look to improve to some guys who can go 3.50 to 3.75, but 3 guys between 3.80 and 4.40 could be a big boost.

 

 

[notin]

I'm not saying that's what he'd accept, but to be that's my top pay for a DH.

 

Even if said DH has a wipeout slider?

[notin]

I agree. We need an ace not a bunch of 2-4's.

 

I do think signing 3 from Stroman, Lugo, Imanaga or maybe Wacha/Clevinger would make our rotation significantly better than last year. Need I remind some just how bad our starters were, last year. Hell a 4.10 ERA is a 1/2 to 2 run improvement over much of what we saw in 2023.

 

ERA as SP, only.... (listed by most GS)

 

4.24 Bello 28 GS (in the '24 rotation)

4.51 Crawford 23

5.01 Houck 21

4.30 Sale 21 (in '24 rotation)

4.50 Paxton 19

4.66 Pivetta 16

5.23 Whitlock 10

6.26 Kluber 9

 

We had 14 GS by pitchers with an SP ERA of .623 or higher.

We had another 31 GS by SP'ers with an ERA between 5.00 and 5.25.

We had another 60 between 4.50 and 4.66.

 

I'm certainly hoping we look to improve to some guys who can go 3.50 to 3.75, but 3 guys between 3.80 and 4.40 could be a big boost.

 

 

 

If the Sox only add Giolito and Wacha or something like that, it’s still an improvement over last year’s 78 win team. And they still have they pieces from a very solid bullpen.

 

The Orioles won the East last year; who was their ace?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Sox only add Giolito and Wacha or something like that, it’s still an improvement over last year’s 78 win team. And they still have they pieces from a very solid bullpen.

 

The Orioles won the East last year; who was their ace?

 

Bradish, 4.9 WAR, third for AL starters, behind Cole and Gray. Lost Game 1 in the playoffs, but didn't pitch badly (2 runs, 9 Ks, 1 BB, yanked in the 5th).

[notin]

Bradish, 4.9 WAR, third for AL starters, behind Cole and Gray. Lost Game 1 in the playoffs, but didn't pitch badly (2 runs, 9 Ks, 1 BB, yanked in the 5th).

 

And last year he had 0.4 bWAR. But we all knew he was going to be the ace of the AL East Champs one day…

[moonslav59]

Even if said DH has a wipeout slider?

 

Will he, again?

 

I'm sure he will pitch, again, and I'm sure he will do fine, for a while, but I would not pay more than $280-300M for him. I would not be upset, if we paid $300-350M for him, but I doubt that gets it done, so I'm not even thinking about him, anymore.

 

He's the type of signing I hope someone like the Yanks sign. His contract will cripple them for year.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox only add Giolito and Wacha or something like that, it’s still an improvement over last year’s 78 win team. And they still have they pieces from a very solid bullpen.

 

The Orioles won the East last year; who was their ace?

 

Agreed, but I'm looking for more than mere "improvement."

 

I'm all about Quality over quantity, at the moment, but if we go third tier, I'd hope we get 3 not 2 form that group. That would further strengthen the pen, especially with mulit-inning guys that would allow us to yank any SP'er early and often.

[Bellhorn04]

Ohtani seems to be bound for the Dodgers or the Jays.

 

Both the Yankees and the Mets are reportedly all in on Moto. How the hell are the Sox going to outbid those two?