A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Larry Cook]

If only they drafted Bryce Miller instead of Marcelo Mayer!!!

 

Why???? Miller is not a California high school middle infielder! There is no way hang’em Chaim would have miller on the draft board

[moonslav59]

Why???? Miller is not a California high school middle infielder! There is no way hang’em Chaim would have miller on the draft board

 

Nobody did in their first 5 picks

[harmony]

After taking college pitchers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock with their first-round picks in 2018-20, the Seattle Mariners have since drafted high school position players, including three shortstops, in the first round:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=SEA&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

 

In 2021 the Mariners drafted college pitchers Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo in the fourth and sixth rounds, respectively.

Edited November 22, 2023 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I wonder if Brez will push the Organization towards drafting pitchers earlier.

[Randy Red Sox]

I wonder if Brez will push the Organization towards drafting pitchers earlier.

 

I have been saying that fOr years

[moonslav59]

I have been saying that fOr years

 

To me, it will always make the most sense to draft the best player, regardless of position, and part of the equation in the odds on the player making it to the bigs. Those odds favor everyday players. I’m

[Bellhorn04]

To me, it will always make the most sense to draft the best player, regardless of position, and part of the equation in the odds on the player making it to the bigs. Those odds favor everyday players. I’m

 

The Red Sox have certainly been following that philosophy for years.

 

Has it paid off?

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have certainly been following that philosophy for years.

 

Has it paid off?

 

Hard to say, but we do have 3-4 very highly ranked prospects with Casas and Bello recently graduated.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox have certainly been following that philosophy for years.

 

Has it paid off?

 

In the entire history of the draft, 1965-current, there have been exactly three #1 overall picks to make the Hall of Fame: Baines, Junior and Chipper. That's in over half-a-century. Harper will be there someday.

 

Zero pitchers drafted first overall are in Cooperstown. Cole leads all #1 pitchers with 41.2 WAR, followed by Price 40.3, Strasburg 32.3, Benes 31.5, Moore 27.9, Belcher 26, McDonald 20.8.

 

Grim pickings...

[notin]

In the entire history of the draft, 1965-current, there have been exactly three #1 overall picks to make the Hall of Fame: Baines, Junior and Chipper. That's in over half-a-century. Harper will be there someday.

 

Zero pitchers drafted first overall are in Cooperstown. Cole leads all #1 pitchers with 41.2 WAR, followed by Price 40.3, Strasburg 32.3, Benes 31.5, Moore 27.9, Belcher 26, McDonald 20.8.

 

Grim pickings...

 

Three Hall of Famers (and counting) in 58 years seems like the proper amount…

Edited November 24, 2023 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Three Hall of Famers (and counting) in 58 years seems like the proper amount…

 

All those departments full of scouts, analysts and developmental cases -- and only two sure things (sorry, Harold).

 

That's more of a crapshoot than postseasons in the Wild Card Era. There have to be more than three wild cards who've won the World Series, right? Of the top of my concussed cranium, I've got the crappy '04 Sox, '19 Nats and Eovaldi's Rangers...

[notin]

All those departments full of scouts, analysts and developmental cases -- and only two sure things (sorry, Harold).

 

That's more of a crapshoot than postseasons in the Wild Card Era. There have to be more than three wild cards who've won the World Series, right? Of the top of my concussed cranium, I've got the crappy '04 Sox, '19 Nats and Eovaldi's Rangers...

 

 

It’s not like every draft has a future Hall of Famer in it. And you’re talking about only one draft slot per draft, which isn’t the only position eligible for the Hall of Fame. What about later picks? Paul Molitor was selected two picks after Baines. ( While Ozzie Smith and Tim Raines lingered for several rounds.) Obviously both Baines and Molitor couldn’t go number one overall.

 

Also what you left out is that up until the last decade or so, players often fell from the #1 overall slot due to signability concerns. It’s impossible to identify how many players this impacted, but certainly many players those scouts identified dropped to later in the draft for this reason…

Edited November 24, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

It would be nice to see the overall numbers I. Groups like 1-5, 6-10… not just HOF, but maybe all star appearances or total WAR by positions.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It’s not like every draft has a future Hall of Famer in it. And you’re talking about only one draft slot per draft, which isn’t the only position eligible for the Hall of Fame. What about later picks? Paul Molitor was selected two picks after Baines. ( While Ozzie Smith and Tim Raines lingered for several rounds.) Obviously both Baines and Molitor couldn’t go number one overall.

 

Also what you left out is that up until the last decade or so, players often fell from the #1 overall slot due to signability concerns. It’s impossible to identify how many players this impacted, but certainly many players those scouts identified dropped to later in the draft for this reason…

 

As usual, my post -- like just about anyone's -- isn't all-inclusive to make a point that can't be picked apart with a specific stat by another poster always in the mood to argue. I know this has been rehashed plenty of times before -- some have even pointed out that Houston rebuilt with top picks, but not so much #1 overalls wasted on two pitching busts... but later first-rounders like Bregman and Springer. But it's hot stove with no real Red Sox news so far.

 

I was merely commenting about one aspect on the vagaries of baseball's amateur draft, and how even the highest of high picks is no sure thing -- especially when it comes to choosing a guy who looks like the best future pitching star each year. Skenes is the latest, just like Leiter was automatic a few years ago (Jack must have won a few Cys by now...).

 

Nothing is guaranteed, but perhaps we can at least agree that of all the major sports, the baseball draft is the most dubious, as far as the top of the first round altering a franchise.

[Bellhorn04]

As usual, my post -- like just about anyone's -- isn't all-inclusive to make a point that can't be picked apart with a specific stat by another poster always in the mood to argue. I know this has been rehashed plenty of times before -- some have even pointed out that Houston rebuilt with top picks, but not so much #1 overalls wasted on two pitching busts... but later first-rounders like Bregman and Springer. But it's hot stove with no real Red Sox news so far.

 

I was merely commenting about one aspect on the vagaries of baseball's amateur draft, and how even the highest of high picks is no sure thing -- especially when it comes to choosing a guy who looks like the best future pitching star each year. Skenes is the latest, just like Leiter was automatic a few years ago (Jack must have won a few Cys by now...).

 

Nothing is guaranteed, but perhaps we can at least agree that of all the major sports, the baseball draft is the most dubious, as far as the top of the first round altering a franchise.

 

I think it all comes down to this: Baseball is Hard.

[notin]

As usual, my post -- like just about anyone's -- isn't all-inclusive to make a point that can't be picked apart with a specific stat by another poster always in the mood to argue. I know this has been rehashed plenty of times before -- some have even pointed out that Houston rebuilt with top picks, but not so much #1 overalls wasted on two pitching busts... but later first-rounders like Bregman and Springer. But it's hot stove with no real Red Sox news so far.

 

I was merely commenting about one aspect on the vagaries of baseball's amateur draft, and how even the highest of high picks is no sure thing -- especially when it comes to choosing a guy who looks like the best future pitching star each year. Skenes is the latest, just like Leiter was automatic a few years ago (Jack must have won a few Cys by now...).

 

Nothing is guaranteed, but perhaps we can at least agree that of all the major sports, the baseball draft is the most dubious, as far as the top of the first round altering a franchise.

 

Agreed.

 

A while back it was postulated out here that the Trey Ball pick set the Sox franchise back years. (The entire 2013 draft turned out to be a waste of signing bonuses for the Sox.) We’ve seen the Astros flub back to back #1 picks (Appel/Aiken) and not get derailed.

 

Not to mention forecasting the future of an 18yo through age 30+ all while hoping he doesn’t have too many surgeries is a little bit of a challenging prediction…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agreed.

 

A while back it was postulated out here that the Trey Ball pick set the Sox franchise back years. (The entire 2013 draft turned out to be a waste of signing bonuses for the Sox.) We’ve seen the Astros flub back to back #1 picks (Appel/Aiken) and not get derailed.

 

Not to mention forecasting the future of an 18yo through age 30+ all while hoping he doesn’t have too many surgeries is a little bit of a challenging prediction…

 

With how hard pitching is to secure, project and develop, why aren't there more cases of these best-player-availables being converted from shortstop to the mound? They all have cannons, and already can presumably hit the vicinity of a first baseman's mitt from deep in the hole...

 

Holy crap -- Frankie Rodriquez is 50! Wasn't he just on the cover of a baseball card prospect mag?

 

There's gotta be some smart CBO somewhere -- say, an ex-MLB pitcher whose specialty is revamping pitching R & D for an entire system -- that Boston can hire to do this faster than you can say Javy Guerra.

[notin]

With how hard pitching is to secure, project and develop, why aren't there more cases of these best-player-availables being converted from shortstop to the mound? They all have cannons, and already can presumably hit the vicinity of a first baseman's mitt from deep in the hole...

 

Holy crap -- Frankie Rodriquez is 50! Wasn't he just on the cover of a baseball card prospect mag?

 

 

There's gotta be some smart CBO somewhere -- say, an ex-MLB pitcher whose specialty is revamping pitching R & D for an entire system -- that Boston can hire to do this faster than you can say Javy Guerra.

 

That happens.

 

Matt Bush, for example.

 

Also Joe Nathan and Trevor Hoffman. Probably a lot more I just didn’t realize…

[Randy Red Sox]

In the entire history of the draft, 1965-current, there have been exactly three #1 overall picks to make the Hall of Fame: Baines, Junior and Chipper. That's in over half-a-century. Harper will be there someday.

 

Zero pitchers drafted first overall are in Cooperstown. Cole leads all #1 pitchers with 41.2 WAR, followed by Price 40.3, Strasburg 32.3, Benes 31.5, Moore 27.9, Belcher 26, McDonald 20.8.

 

Grim pickings...

 

who said anything about having to make the HOF?

[jad]

It’s not like every draft has a future Hall of Famer in it. And you’re talking about only one draft slot per draft, which isn’t the only position eligible for the Hall of Fame. What about later picks? Paul Molitor was selected two picks after Baines. ( While Ozzie Smith and Tim Raines lingered for several rounds.) Obviously both Baines and Molitor couldn’t go number one overall.

 

Also what you left out is that up until the last decade or so, players often fell from the #1 overall slot due to signability concerns. It’s impossible to identify how many players this impacted, but certainly many players those scouts identified dropped to later in the draft for this reason…

 

Not sure about that. I imagine, just based on numbers, that EVERY draft has at least one HOF player. Can someone look that up?

[notin]

In the entire history of the draft, 1965-current, there have been exactly three #1 overall picks to make the Hall of Fame: Baines, Junior and Chipper. That's in over half-a-century. Harper will be there someday.

 

Zero pitchers drafted first overall are in Cooperstown. Cole leads all #1 pitchers with 41.2 WAR, followed by Price 40.3, Strasburg 32.3, Benes 31.5, Moore 27.9, Belcher 26, McDonald 20.8.

 

Grim pickings...

 

 

Junior Griffey?

[illinoisredsox]

Not sure about that. I imagine, just based on numbers, that EVERY draft has at least one HOF player. Can someone look that up?

 

Per the referenced article, there have been several drafts without any HOF players.

 

Near as I can tell, drafts that produced no HOF players include 1968, 1974, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1986, 1991, 1993 and 1994. Not sure when this was written, so there may be more who subsequently got to Cooperstown from the 80s and 90s drafts.

 

I'm pretty sure that it only includes the draft from which a player actually signed a contract, so a college player who gets drafted out of high school but chooses instead goes to play college ball is counted only when he's drafted the second time and signs.

 

https://baseballhall.org/discover-more/stories/baseball-history/caught-in-the-draft

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see a study done on the avg fWAR of every slot in the draft (or grouped by 5's) BY POSITIONs.

 

My guess is everyday players drafted in the top 5, 10, 15 and maybe beyond do much better, on average, than pitchers.

 

HOF does not tell me much.

[moonslav59]

Here is one possible non-outlandish view:

 

Sign SP (Monty or Gray?) DFA Zack Weiss

 

Sign SP (Lugo or Clevinger) DFA Llovera

 

Sign Duvall and DFA Jacques or Dalbec

 

Trade (BTV accepted) Dugo & Mata for Dubon & Urquidy (BTV accepts Javier, but I doubt HOU gives him up for 1 yr of Dugo)

 

The 26:

SP: Monty, Lugo, Bello, 2 from Houck/Pivetta/Sale

LR: Crawford, Whitlock, Urquidy, 1 from Houck/Pivetta

SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber/Campbell

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas

2B: Dubon

SS: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Duran & Ref

CF: Rafaela & Abreu

RF: Duvall

DH: Yoshida

UT: Reyes

 

14 on farm:

SP: Murphy, Walter, Wikelman, Perales,

RP: Schreiber/Campbell, Bernardino, Kelly, Robertson

C: Scott

IF: EValdez, DHam, Dalbec ?

OF: (Rafaela or Abreu?) _____ (Rosier not on 40.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'd like to see a study done on the avg fWAR of every slot in the draft (or grouped by 5's) BY POSITIONs.

 

My guess is everyday players drafted in the top 5, 10, 15 and maybe beyond do much better, on average, than pitchers.

 

HOF does not tell me much.

 

You could do a smaller study by looking at something like active career fWAR leaders, pitching and position players, and where they were drafted.

[notin]

I'd like to see a study done on the avg fWAR of every slot in the draft (or grouped by 5's) BY POSITIONs.

 

My guess is everyday players drafted in the top 5, 10, 15 and maybe beyond do much better, on average, than pitchers.

 

HOF does not tell me much.

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358010336_Major_League_Draft_WARs_An_Analysis_of_Wins_Above_Replacement_in_Player_Selection

[moonslav59]

You could do a smaller study by looking at something like active career fWAR leaders, pitching and position players, and where they were drafted.

 

I do not know an easy way to see where players were drafted, and comparing the two lists looks too daunting. to even me.

[moonslav59]

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358010336_Major_League_Draft_WARs_An_Analysis_of_Wins_Above_Replacement_in_Player_Selection

 

I did not see any breakdown by position drafted.

[notin]

I did not see any breakdown by position drafted.

 

 

Ok. Thank you for trading out for me. It looked long and tedious…

[notin]

I do not know an easy way to see where players were drafted, and comparing the two lists looks too daunting. to even me.

 

You would have to click on each player. I’m not up for it either…