A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

You would have to click on each player. I’m not up for it either…

 

I'm surprised nobody has done and published it.

[moonslav59]

For people who poo-poo the Sox draft strategy, I did find this:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/06/03/a-team-by-team-look-at-baseballs-draft-from-1996-2018/39539549/

 

1996-2018 drafts:

 

BOSTON RED SOX

 

Total WAR for all drafted players: 697 (MLB rank: 1st)

 

Total WAR for drafted players who signed: 483.9 (rank: 2nd)

 

Total WAR for drafted players who did not sign: 213.1

 

Impact players (10 WAR or more) drafted: 25 (rank: 1st)

 

Impact players drafted and signed: 16 (rank: tie-2nd)

 

Most recent impact player drafted and signed: Mookie Betts, 2011, fifth round (37.7 WAR); Jackie Bradley Jr., 2011, first round, pick No. 40 (12.3 WAR); Travis Shaw, 2011, ninth round (10.8 WAR)

 

Lowest pick for impact player drafted and signed: David Eckstein, 1997, 19th round, pick No. 581 (20.9 WAR)

 

Best draft class, based on total WAR (impact players listed): 2005, 102.8 WAR (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Charlie Blackmon, Jason Castro)

 

Best draft class, counting signed players only: 2005, 65.3 WAR (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie)

 

Highest pick: Trey Ball, 2013; Andrew Benintendi, 2015 (pick No. 7)

 

Best player drafted and signed, based on career WAR: Dustin Pedroia, 2004, second round (51.7 WAR)

 

Best player drafted who did not sign: Mark Teixeira, 1998, ninth round (51.8 WAR)

 

Best player drafted and signed from first round: Jacoby Ellsbury, 2005, pick No. 23 (31.1 WAR)

 

Details: The Red Sox have been excellent in the draft and have the championships to show for it. Their 2005 class included an incredible five impact players, three of which signed. Six years later, they drafted and signed three more. Boston's title teams have been populated with plenty of standouts originally drafted by the team: Pedroia, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Betts, Bradley, Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester . the list is an impressive one. The Red Sox have also lost a lot of solid players in the form of unsigned picks. They could afford to.

 

2010-2019:

 

1st Rd Picks ONLY value: (about middle of the pack)

 

All draft picks 2011-2017: (Sox #1:)

https://brewerfanatic.com/forums/topic/32807-total-war-by-draft-picks-since-2011/

 

Values by draft slots: 2000-2010:

https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by moonslav59

[Dipre]

So, in essence....bring back Epstein or Duquette?

[moonslav59]

So, in essence....bring back Epstein or Duquette?

 

We don't know the total value of Ben, DD and Bloom's drafts, yet.

 

Many of Ben's are on other teams, but not jumping out at us in high values.

 

DD has some good players.

 

Bloom's are largely still in the minors.

 

Also, IFAs do not count.

[moonslav59]

Top Sox Drafted/IFA & Signed fWARs since 2003:

 

58.5 Betts

46.2 Lester

44.5 Pedey

41.0 HRam

38.6 Bogey

36.1 Rizzo

31.2 An Sanchez

30.2 Youkilis

30.1 Ellsbury

21.2 Devers

20.7 Schilling

19.9 Reddick

19.8 Lowrie

 

With Sox Only: fWAR drafted or IFA signed after 2012

21.2 Devers

8.5 Beni

5.7 Nava

5.4 Ellsbury

4.6 Houck

2.9 Crawford

2.9 Bello

2.5 Iggy

2.1 Casas

1.7 J Taylor

1.6 Middlebrooks, Duran

1.5 TShaw

[Bellhorn04]

So, in essence....bring back Epstein or Duquette?

 

You might say those were the two most gifted CBO's the Red Sox have had on a transactional basis. Some stellar free agent signings and trades.

 

Dombrowski did his usual overpay for the elite talent thing, and did it well. The pickups he made at the 2018 deadline were probably his finest moment.

[moonslav59]

So, in essence....bring back Epstein or Duquette?

 

Duquette really laid the groundwork for Epstein, well.

 

He took over a team that went 73-89 in '92 and 80-82 in '93. It took a few years to get the team to 92 wins in 1998, but the team did go 86-58 in '95 for a .557 win%. The 2001 team was 82-79, but the foundation handed over to Mike Port included:

2001 Red Sox OPS

1.014 Manny

.881 Nixon

.859 VTek

.859 Daubach

.822 Nomar

.786 Bichette

.761 Carl Everett

.735 O'Leary

.716 Offerman

+ Hatteberg, Hillenbrand, Stynes, D Lewis, Merloni, Valantin

 

Pitchers:

Pedro

Lowe

Nomo

Wake

R Arroyo

Castillo, Cone, Ohka, Garces, Fossum, Kim

Prospects: Lester, Youk, HRam, Shoppach, David Murphy, Freddy Sanchez, Anibal Sanchez, Delcarmen, Jorge de la Rosa and K Gabbard

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Right-hander Yariel Rodriguez held a private workout today, per reporter Francys Romero. Romero adds that the Red Sox and Padres were the two teams with representatives in attendance to watch the righty, who threw two innings during the workout.

 

Rodriguez, 27 in March, was declared a free agent by MLB earlier this month after he was granted his release by the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez spent three seasons pitching out of the bullpen for the Dragons, racking up a 3.03 ERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate in 175 1/3 innings during that time. His 2022 campaign with the Dragons was particularly impressive as he dominated to the tune of a microscopic 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 frames, with a 27.5% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate.

 

After his dominant work in Japan, Rodriguez suited up as a starting pitcher for his home country of Cuba during the World Baseball Classic, during which he struck out ten while allowing two runs on five hits and six walks in 7 1/3 innings of work between his two appearances. Following his appearances in the WBC back in March, Rodriguez sat out the remainder of the 2023 campaign as the Dragons placed him on the restricted list prior to granting the righty his release last month.

 

Public evaluations of Rodriguez are few and far between thanks to the unusual nature of his free agency, but given his unusual youth for a free agent and dominant numbers overseas, it’s easy to see why teams in need of pitching help would be interested in his services, particularly if they believe he can start in the majors. MLBTR ranked Rodriguez #28 on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list earlier this month, projecting him for a four-year, $32MM contract. Earlier this offseason, Romero relayed a list of ten teams that had shown interest in Rodriguez that included neither Boston nor San Diego, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times indicated that the Rays were among fifteen teams that were represented at a workout held by Rodriguez last month.

 

It’s unclear what level of interest the clubs connected to Rodriguez thusfar this offseason have in the right-hander, though it’s easy to see how the Red Sox and Padres match up as potential fits. Boston has made it clear that additional starting pitching help is a priority for the club this offseason, including the possibility of pairing a top-of-the-market arm with a second, more affordable piece. Rodriguez could make plenty of sense as a secondary acquisition for Boston. Young arms like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford have all shown an ability to pitch both in the rotation and out of the bullpen, helping to ease the risk involved in signing an arm like Rodriguez, who hasn’t pitched regularly out of the rotation in professional games since 2019.

[moonslav59]

SNY's Andy Martino reports that Yamo's plan on choosing a team to sign with may be like this:

 

1. The first stage is a round of phone calls and Zoom meetings with all of the interested teams.

 

2. Yamamoto is then expected to arrive in the United States for a series of in-person meetings and further negotiations with however many finalists make this second and presumably last stage of talks.

 

The timeline for these in-person sitdowns is after baseball’s Winter Meetings (December 4-7), which will allow teams a better sense of the pitching market if some other top hurlers are signed or traded in the interim, and allows Yamamoto’s camp that same knowledge as well as perhaps extra negotiating leverage, if remaining suitors are even more desperate for pitching. Though Yamamoto’s posting window extends until January 4, it “is not expected to require that much time” for the right-hander to decide on a contract. It would tentatively seem like he might have his decision made sometime between mid-December and Christmas Day.

 

Martino also adds a clarification to a statement made by Wolfe earlier in the week, as the agent told Japanese media during a conference call that his client would have no problem playing with another Japanese player. Due to a translation error, this was incorrectly interpreted as Wolfe saying that Yamamoto was prioritizing teams that already had at least one Japanese player on the roster, which isn’t the case.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

SNY's Andy Martino reports that Yamo's plan on choosing a team to sign with may be like this:

 

1. The first stage is a round of phone calls and Zoom meetings with all of the interested teams.

 

2. Yamamoto is then expected to arrive in the United States for a series of in-person meetings and further negotiations with however many finalists make this second and presumably last stage of talks.

 

The timeline for these in-person sitdowns is after baseball’s Winter Meetings (December 4-7), which will allow teams a better sense of the pitching market if some other top hurlers are signed or traded in the interim, and allows Yamamoto’s camp that same knowledge as well as perhaps extra negotiating leverage, if remaining suitors are even more desperate for pitching. Though Yamamoto’s posting window extends until January 4, it “is not expected to require that much time” for the right-hander to decide on a contract. It would tentatively seem like he might have his decision made sometime between mid-December and Christmas Day.

 

Martino also adds a clarification to a statement made by Wolfe earlier in the week, as the agent told Japanese media during a conference call that his client would have no problem playing with another Japanese player. Due to a translation error, this was incorrectly interpreted as Wolfe saying that Yamamoto was prioritizing teams that already had at least one Japanese player on the roster, which isn’t the case.

 

 

 

Is signing Yamamoto bres-slow’s white whale!!!

[moonslav59]

Is signing Yamamoto bres-slow’s white whale!!!

 

I think we have a legit top 5 chance, depending on JH's willingness to fork it over.

 

A lot will depend on what Brez & the scouts think, if JH gives the green light.

 

I think he is worth the hefty gamble.

[moonslav59]

My dream is Yamo, Monty & Lugo, but this is the realistic thread.

 

Both Monty & Gray are probably not realistic.

 

Maybe Monty & Lugo are the best we can hope for.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think we have a legit top 5 chance, depending on JH's willingness to fork it over.

 

A lot will depend on what Brez & the scouts think, if JH gives the green light.

 

I think he is worth the hefty gamble.

 

Sunday morning COLDstove in RSNation blabs: Brez and the rez may disagree.

 

Isn't it folly for a first-year CBO to gamble so much on one guy so MLB-unproven? For what it will ultimately cost to bet on Yo Yama, wouldn't it make more sense in a rebuild to use the same amount to sign two other established big league starters?

 

Or will going all in on this winter's big mound prize be looked upon as bold...

 

... even though the bold moves most hinted at in Breslow's early pressers were more connected to trading prospects or feng shooing the front office...

[Bellhorn04]

Sunday morning COLDstove in RSNation blabs: Brez and the rez may disagree.

 

Isn't it folly for a first-year CBO to gamble so much on one guy so MLB-unproven? For what it will ultimately cost to bet on Yo Yama, wouldn't it make more sense in a rebuild to use the same amount to sign two other established big league starters?

 

Or will going all in on this winter's big mound prize be looked upon as bold...

 

... even though the bold moves most hinted at in Breslow's early pressers were more connected to trading prospects or feng shooing the front office...

 

I'm not sure why the fact it's Breslow's first year should have any impact on the decision to gamble on Yamamoto.

[Old Red]

20 yrs ago Theo was breaking bread with Schill at TG. I don’t think Brez was doing it with anyone this year.

[notin]

20 yrs ago Theo was breaking bread with Schill at TG. I don’t think Brez was doing it with anyone this year.

 

His family?

 

The guy has been in charge for 32 days and already the masses are growing restless…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not sure why the fact it's Breslow's first year should have any impact on the decision to gamble on Yamamoto.

 

Imagine you've just been promoted and got a huge raise, entrusted with spending the company budget to improve production and increase stock value. But instead of investing on recruits who are tried and true in the industry, you take a big chunk of the funds to the race track... to bet on the favorite, granted (almost a sure thing, according to odds' makers).

 

That kind of stunt may be tolerated by ownership after you've made them kajillions more by boosting the brand... but first move?

[Old Red]

His family?

 

The guy has been in charge for 32 days and already the masses are growing restless…

 

Who’s growing restless? It it only took Brez a month to name his Buddy the pitching coach.

[notin]

Who’s growing restless? It it only took Brez a month to name his Buddy the pitching coach.

 

 

What your point?

[Old Red]

What your point?

 

There was no point to begin with. I just said it was 20 years ago that Theo said down with Schill at TG.

[notin]

Imagine you've just been promoted and got a huge raise, entrusted with spending the company budget to improve production and increase stock value. But instead of investing on recruits who are tried and true in the industry, you take a big chunk of the funds to the race track... to bet on the favorite, granted (almost a sure thing, according to odds' makers).

 

That kind of stunt may be tolerated by ownership after you've made them kajillions more by boosting the brand... but first move?

 

I have questions about Yamamoto as well, but I don’t write think he’s a straight up 100% gamble akin to betting on the ponies. I mean, NPB has produced numerous solid veterans and a few truly elite talents.

 

The real question - how many starters does Breslow think the Sox need? If he’s counting Sale, Pivetta, Bello and Crawford, he might not be able to sign “a couple tried and true” MLB pitchers. He also might not have the luxury of writing off Sale just yet…

[notin]

There was no point to begin with. I just said it was 20 years ago that Theo said down with Schill at TG.

 

And then you commented Breslow wasn’t doing so with anyone this year. You know, like every GM/CBO ever in MLB history except Epstein that one time.

 

I get Breslow hasn’t made any significant moves yet. Know who else hasn’t? Everyone. The only notable transactions to date are one pitcher re-signing with his former team and the Mariners re-shuffling some mediocre third basemen…

[Old Red]

And then you commented Breslow wasn’t doing so with anyone this year. You know, like every GM/CBO ever in MLB history except Epstein that one time.

 

I get Breslow hasn’t made any significant moves yet. Know who else hasn’t? Everyone. The only notable transactions to date are one pitcher re-signing with his former team and the Mariners re-shuffling some mediocre third basemen…

 

Big deal I threw In Breslow afterwards just so someone like you could try to find something that wasn’t there.

I’ve said all along that I don’t expect Brez to do anything big. To me there are just two big moves out there in the Yam Man, and the big O. The rest like Snell, Monty, and Gray would help the Red Sox, but these are just guys that, because they are FA will get over hyped, and over paid. It amazes me what is classified as good pitchers today.

[Bellhorn04]

Imagine you've just been promoted and got a huge raise, entrusted with spending the company budget to improve production and increase stock value. But instead of investing on recruits who are tried and true in the industry, you take a big chunk of the funds to the race track... to bet on the favorite, granted (almost a sure thing, according to odds' makers).

 

That kind of stunt may be tolerated by ownership after you've made them kajillions more by boosting the brand... but first move?

 

Yamamoto is a move that's more up to the owners than it is to Breslow, IMHO.

[notin]

Big deal I threw In Breslow afterwards just so someone like you could try to find something that wasn’t there.

I’ve said all along that I don’t expect Brez to do anything big. To me there are just two big moves out there in the Yam Man, and the big O. The rest like Snell, Monty, and Gray would help the Red Sox, but these are just guys that, because they are FA will get over hyped, and over paid. It amazes me what is classified as good pitchers today.

 

It’s fun watching you dial back…

[Bellhorn04]

Big deal I threw In Breslow afterwards just so someone like you could try to find something that wasn’t there.

I’ve said all along that I don’t expect Brez to do anything big. To me there are just two big moves out there in the Yam Man, and the big O. The rest like Snell, Monty, and Gray would help the Red Sox, but these are just guys that, because they are FA will get over hyped, and over paid. It amazes me what is classified as good pitchers today.

 

Don't kid yourself, pitchers today are better than they were 20 years ago or however far back you want to go. They throw harder and put more spin on the ball. But the extra stress on their arms also makes them less durable.

[Old Red]

Don't kid yourself, pitchers today are better than they were 20 years ago or however far back you want to go. They throw harder and put more spin on the ball. But the extra stress on their arms also makes them less durable.

 

Just, because they throw harder, and put more spin on the ball certainly don’t make them better pitches, so I’m not kidding myself at all. That’s my opinion, and I’m sticking to it. Pitches being less durable I will agree with.

[Old Red]

It’s fun watching you dial back…

 

I’m not dialing anything back. What was fun was you trying to find some point in me talking about Theo when there wasn’t any point to begin with. Just a fun fact that I saw posted on NESN, but because I mentioned Brez you thought you had to over analyze, and find something negative about Brez.

[notin]

I’m not dialing anything back. What was fun was you trying to find some point in me talking about Theo when there wasn’t any point to begin with. Just a fun fact that I saw posted on NESN, but because I mentioned Brez you thought you had to over analyze, and find something negative about Brez.

 

Yeah that sounds plausible…

[moonslav59]

Imagine you've just been promoted and got a huge raise, entrusted with spending the company budget to improve production and increase stock value. But instead of investing on recruits who are tried and true in the industry, you take a big chunk of the funds to the race track... to bet on the favorite, granted (almost a sure thing, according to odds' makers).

 

That kind of stunt may be tolerated by ownership after you've made them kajillions more by boosting the brand... but first move?

 

Signing Yamo would come down to trusting the scouts, the radar guns and your own instincts.

 

I think Brez will make 1-2 "gutsy moves," this winter. How gutsy is the question. I'm thinking one big trade of prospects that are not "his type" and one major signing, which to me is anyone as good or better than Monty.