A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

A power-hitting right-handed bat that doesn't automatically K when it doesn't HR.

 

A guy like that is more likely to be found for a corner outfield position, rather than second base. He'll be costly, and subsequently require a commitment for a minimum-wage CF like Rafalea or Duran (whichever one isn't traded). Once secured, it will be a lot easier to find a good glove man for second base -- until Mayer makes it and Story moves over.

 

A longshot deal for Trout wouldn't change this plan, as he'd probably become a LF at Fenway to maximize his 30s...

 

The options are (25 HR's and under 25% K, RHB, OF): Acuna, Betts, Julio Rodriguez and Tatis.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The options are (25 HR's and under 25% K, RHB, OF): Acuna, Betts, Julio Rodriguez and Tatis.

 

Tatis has been mentioned the past week by Boston media as a possible trade target for the Sox.

 

I'd take Betts, but if LA wants us to be stuck with his 12-year contract, they'd have to include a young, controllable pitcher (maybe Graterol). The best I can do for the albatross that is Mookie at this point is Verdugo-Wong.

[Randy Red Sox]

I'd trade Mayer before I'd trade Anthony or Teel.

 

 

i wouldn't trade an f them although I dont know that much about Anthony

[moonslav59]

Everyone hates Ks, but give me a guy who hits 25+ bombs and has a .350+ OBP (even .340, these days) and I won't care about his K%.

 

Players with 45+ HRs since 2021 and an OBP% above .340:

99 Judge .417

88 Olsen .357

78 Ohtani .383

75 Riley .347

74 Betts .375

68 Alvarez .407

66 Seager .349

62 Machado .344

62 Soto .406

60 Goldschmidt .383

60 Devers .354

59 Tucker .350

58 Trout .368

58 Vlad Jr .341

56 Acuna .389

53 J Ram .355

50 Freeman .408

48 Bregman .364

45 Altuve .390

 

Close:

93 Schwarber .333

86 Alonso .335

69 Walker .330

60 J Rod .338

57 Lindor .337

57 Muncy .331

56 Arenado .337

51 B Reynolds .337

51 Paredes .333

49 JD M .332

49 Soler ..325

49 Torres .330

47 T Turner .331

47 Swanson .328 (GG winner)

46 Springer .334

44 N Lowe .359

44 Rizzo .333

44 Chapman .327

44 Bichette .336

43 W Smith .351

43 Arozarena .346

42 Contreras .354

40 Nimmo .365

[Hugh2]

Would SEA want to do that deal? They already have a pretty good SS.

 

This is why I don’t like BTV, how an organization evaluates and values a prospect can vary wildly and teams aren’t going to just make a trade for the sake of it because it’s good on paper when it doesn’t address an immediate need that’s is important to them.

 

This is exactly why BTV is useless at times, yet we all still use, including me.

[harmony]

Would SEA want to do that deal? They already have a pretty good SS.

Indeed Seattle shortstop J.P. Crawford, who posted 4.9 fWAR this year in his age 28 season, remains under contract through the 2026 season.

 

And four of Seattle’s top seven prospects are shortstops, including 18-year-old Felnin Celeste’s, the overall No. 2 prospect in a recent international class.

 

The Mariners would be unlikely to trade their top prospect, 20-year-old shortstop Cole Young, straight up for Marcelo Mayer (and the Red Sox likewise would be unlikely to do that deal).

[sk7326]

Sure, when Teel is ready. We could have Garver or Teel DH when not catching.

 

I guess it depends on how many years we give Garver and when Teel is ML ready.

 

Garver is will be 33, next year. He has never had more than 360 PAs in a ML season. That is worrisome, even for a catcher. His numbers are rather astounding, though:

 

He's averaged 34 HRs per 650 PAs since 2021. Couple that with a .346 OBP (.370 in '23) and I'm liking him, more and more.

 

He has a career .825 OPS (123 OPS+) and his OPS+, last year, was 134.

.795 v R

.885 v L

 

His (RH'd) bat looks better than Duvall's.

 

Honestly, Graver probably remains attractive independent of the Teel question. They are a platoon match - and obviously Graver hits righties enough to be able to handle a closer to 50-50 jobshare. If Teel gets the call, having Graver allows the team to phase Teel in. Wong would be the guy sacrificed in this case.

[notin]

This is why I don’t like BTV, how an organization evaluates and values a prospect can vary wildly and teams aren’t going to just make a trade for the sake of it because it’s good on paper when it doesn’t address an immediate need that’s is important to them.

 

This is exactly why BTV is useless at times, yet we all still use, including me.

 

It’s objective, which is nice. BTV didn’t overvalue players based on allegiances. It does give fair trades, but it doesn’t tell you whether or not one or both teams are even interested.

 

But most real life trades do work out on their model…

[moonslav59]

This is why I don’t like BTV, how an organization evaluates and values a prospect can vary wildly and teams aren’t going to just make a trade for the sake of it because it’s good on paper when it doesn’t address an immediate need that’s is important to them.

 

This is exactly why BTV is useless at times, yet we all still use, including me.

 

BTV does not claim any equal value match-up means a trade can or might be made.

 

It does provide some semblance of what sort of vlaue would be needed to maike a trade possible, but yes, both sides have to agree to the return value being right, and have a need to make a change.

 

They have been remarkably accurate on actual trades made, when it comes to balancing the two values. They miss some, by a lot, but they do a pretty good job.

[moonslav59]

Honestly, Graver probably remains attractive independent of the Teel question. They are a platoon match - and obviously Graver hits righties enough to be able to handle a closer to 50-50 jobshare. If Teel gets the call, having Graver allows the team to phase Teel in. Wong would be the guy sacrificed in this case.

 

Agreed, and they could DH the other games.

 

We'd lose the DH, if we ever had to move the DH to catcher in a game, but that would only happen due to an injury. I doubt either would ever need to be PH for.

[mvp 78]

Tatis has been mentioned the past week by Boston media as a possible trade target for the Sox.

 

I'd take Betts, but if LA wants us to be stuck with his 12-year contract, they'd have to include a young, controllable pitcher (maybe Graterol). The best I can do for the albatross that is Mookie at this point is Verdugo-Wong.

 

Tatis has a very reasonable contract. I don't know why SD would move him. I know they want to cut salary, but he's not the guy they should move.

[moonslav59]

Tatis has a very reasonable contract. I don't know why SD would move him. I know they want to cut salary, but he's not the guy they should move.

 

IMO, they will move Soto.

[mvp 78]

IMO, they will move Soto.

 

Seems likely. The trade idea for Tatis is a pipedream. Maybe they try moving Xander and eating some salary?

[harmony]

The Padres reportedly took out a $50 million loan in September to cover expenses:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danepstein/2023/11/01/the-san-diego-padres-borrowed-50-million-and-now-face-tough-offseason/?sh=6b8c761d7fe1

 

Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 2024 salary of only $11.7 million while Juan Soto is projected to earn $33 million in his final arbitration season. A trade of Soto would provide more immediate financial relief.

 

Tatis has full no-trade protection in his contract while Soto has no contractual say in where he is traded.

[sk7326]

Agreed, and they could DH the other games.

 

We'd lose the DH, if we ever had to move the DH to catcher in a game, but that would only happen due to an injury. I doubt either would ever need to be PH for.

 

Offer Garver something like 2/20 and let it be a Teel-Graver

 

Now in theory you'd wonder what Graver can be with more PAs given being a 2 win player now is - but he has never had that workload and I have to assume other teams are smarter on this than me.

[sk7326]

IMO, they will move Soto.

 

Yeah - he gives more salary relief. Now, you can't trade for him unless you are willing to give him a $500M deal. But ... if I were Breslow and gang, I would kick the tires on it.

[jad]

Tatis has been mentioned the past week by Boston media as a possible trade target for the Sox.

 

I'd take Betts, but if LA wants us to be stuck with his 12-year contract, they'd have to include a young, controllable pitcher (maybe Graterol). The best I can do for the albatross that is Mookie at this point is Verdugo-Wong.

 

You can't be serious. I suppose this kind if thinking is why Boston never got Babe Ruth back.

[moonslav59]

Offer Garver something like 2/20 and let it be a Teel-Graver

 

Now in theory you'd wonder what Graver can be with more PAs given being a 2 win player now is - but he has never had that workload and I have to assume other teams are smarter on this than me.

 

I'm not sure what anyone has Garver's contract projected to, but I think he should get more than $20M/2. Maybe something like $33M/3 or or $25M/2 min.

 

I'm liking him, more and more.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure what anyone has Garver's contract projected to, but I think he should get more than $20M/2. Maybe something like $33M/3 or or $25M/2 min.

 

I'm liking him, more and more.

 

MLBTradeRumors says 3/39 to the Rangers or Sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You can't be serious. I suppose this kind if thinking is why Boston never got Babe Ruth back.

 

But -- the Babe played his last 28 games for Boston... 6 HR, 12 RBI, .181 BA, -0.3 dWAR... but still a positive 0.1 bWAR (1/10th better than a replacement poster?)

 

re. Soto -- who would seem much cheaper to trade for than Tatis -- the Sox will have to decide if it's worth it to pay him for at least a decade... or instead, use the funds to sign a couple top-of-the-rotation starters.

 

Does a pair of aces beat five-of-a-kind (LHHOFers)?

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure what anyone has Garver's contract projected to, but I think he should get more than $20M/2. Maybe something like $33M/3 or or $25M/2 min.

 

I'm liking him, more and more.

 

If you want Yoshida to stay in left and have Garver replace McGuire and split time at DH I don't hate it. But I don't want him catching too many games. I don't think he has the strongest arm and the running game plays a larger role in todays game.

[notin]

You can't be serious. I suppose this kind if thinking is why Boston never got Babe Ruth back.

 

Except that Boston did get Babe Ruth back…

[moonslav59]

If you want Yoshida to stay in left and have Garver replace McGuire and split time at DH I don't hate it. But I don't want him catching too many games. I don't think he has the strongest arm and the running game plays a larger role in todays game.

 

He has about the same CS% as Wong & McGuire- career and in 2023.

[mvp 78]

If you want Yoshida to stay in left and have Garver replace McGuire and split time at DH I don't hate it. But I don't want him catching too many games. I don't think he has the strongest arm and the running game plays a larger role in todays game.

 

McGuire's catching skills really dipped last season. I'm more worried about what happened to him than trying out Garver.

[moonslav59]

McGuire's catching skills really dipped last season. I'm more worried about what happened to him than trying out Garver.

 

He was hurt and maybe playing hurt, right?

 

(I know that's often the excuse used.)

[moonslav59]

2023 OAA Catchers SB's:

6. Wong +5

25. Garver 0

38. McGuire -1

 

2022-2023 (82 catchers with Min 20 SB attempts)

10. Wong +5

T24. McGuire+2

T36 Garver 0

 

2022-2023 Blocking (70 qualified):

40. McGuire -1

46. Garver -4

63. Wong -10

 

[Hugh2]

Wong also has elite pop times while Garver is bottom of the barrel. Seeing how Mitch caught about 30 games (guessing without looking it up I know that’s close) one has to wonder how ugly his subpar defense would get with more playing time. Which he will if you dump McGuire.

 

I was disappointed in McGuires season, but it’s only one year, he’s been better in the past with much much better pop times, he’s a lot cheaper as a back up. With Teel on the way adding Garver just seems more about adding a RHB bat and less about plugging up a hole.

[moonslav59]

Wong also has elite pop times while Garver is bottom of the barrel. Seeing how Mitch caught about 30 games (guessing without looking it up I know that’s close) one has to wonder how ugly his subpar defense would get with more playing time. Which he will if you dump McGuire.

 

I was disappointed in McGuires season, but it’s only one year, he’s been better in the past with much much better pop times, he’s a lot cheaper as a back up. With Teel on the way adding Garver just seems more about adding a RHB bat and less about plugging up a hole.

 

Statcast has Wong at 15th in "pop time" out of 60 catchers with 15 attampts at 2B.

McGuire was T37th

 

In 2022, Wong was 7th and McGuire was 28th.

[moonslav59]

Framing Skills:

 

2023:

28. McGuire +1 (15th in 2022 at +3)

47. Wong -4

[Hugh2]

Mitch Garvers pop time is 2.0

 

Not awful, not good. His bat is nice but catcher is not a position I want to go offense first. Especially with a pitching staff that desperately needs help. Wong could stand to improve in some areas but he’s a much better starting catcher than Garver ever was.