A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Once again i didn’t say get rid of him, but the FACT is they are a losing team with him, or without him.

 

So did you have a point at all?

[Bellhorn04]

Once again i didn’t say get rid of him, but the FACT is they are a losing team with him, or without him.

 

What exactly does that prove? David Ortiz and Mookie Betts also played on losing Red Sox teams.

[Bellhorn04]

Even if it’s as less as possible? The last 3 years convinced you?

 

I think Sale is worth a gamble for 1 more year at an AAV of 25.6 mill.

 

Of course, I'm assuming that Henry is going to loosen the purse strings a little, too.

[Old Red]

What exactly does that prove? David Ortiz and Mookie Betts also played on losing Red Sox teams.

 

So did Ted, and. so did Yaz. I’m just saying I don’t think he’s as valuable as everyone else think’s especially if he has to be moved to DH. $300M+ is a lot of money for a DH.

[Old Red]

I think Sale is worth a gamble for 1 more year at an AAV of 25.6 mill.

 

Of course, I'm assuming that Henry is going to loosen the purse strings a little, too.

 

Sale has been a gamble since DD signed him to that extension. That $25M could be a lot better spent on a part time player at best, which is what he’s been for three years now.

[notin]

So did Ted, and. so did Yaz. I’m just saying I don’t think he’s as valuable as everyone else think’s especially if he has to be moved to DH. $300M+ is a lot of money for a DH.

 

That’s very poor logic for keeping him at 3b.

 

If his salary dictates his position, maybe they need to make him a TOR starter…

[mvp 78]

Of course there is nothing to complain about after ANOTHER losing team, and finishing last place in the Div. What do you think the overall opinion is in Red Sox Nation right now? Complaining, or thinking everything is red, and rosy?

 

There are things to complain about, but you can never admit that there are some things that are working. Baby/bath water and all that...

[mvp 78]

Devers as a hitter stands to be the most helpful player on the roster for getting out of last place. His defense is less helpful in this regard.

 

Move him to 1b/DH where he can continue to do what he does best and the team can mitigate what he does worst…

 

It MAY mitigate what he does worst.

[notin]

It MAY mitigate what he does worst.

 

Well it will certainly eliminate his errant throws to first…

[mvp 78]

I'm not in favor of trading Sale. I want as much pitching as possible.

 

You could use that $25M towards a different arm?

[mvp 78]

Well it will certainly eliminate his errant throws to first…

 

Many more throws from 1B to P though.

[Old Red]

There are things to complain about, but you can never admit that there are some things that are working. Baby/bath water and all that...

 

Casas I’m excited about, but the jury is still out to me on the RAF Man, Duran, Abreu, Valdez crop for next year. Did I miss anything?

[notin]

You could use that $25M towards a different arm?

 

Per my post earlier, what if the best as arm you can get for $25mill is Lucas Giolito?

[mvp 78]

That’s very poor logic for keeping him at 3b.

 

If his salary dictates his position, maybe they need to make him a TOR starter…

 

My logic is that I don't believe this ownership will bring in a better MLB 3b from outside the organization. They may move him off the position at some point, but I don't believe it will be in 2024.

[mvp 78]

Per my post earlier, what if the best as arm you can get for $25mill is Lucas Giolito?

 

I'd keep Chris Sale for a year and put the 25M towards Burnes.

[Old Red]

My logic is that I don't believe this ownership will bring in a better MLB 3b from outside the organization. They may move him off the position at some point, but I don't believe it will be in 2024.

 

Especially with Casas occupying 1B.

[mvp 78]

Casas I’m excited about, but the jury is still out to me on the RAF Man, Duran, Abreu, Valdez crop for next year. Did I miss anything?

 

I'm not here to make a list for you just so that you can piss all over it. That's moon's job.

[notin]

My logic is that I don't believe this ownership will bring in a better MLB 3b from outside the organization. They may move him off the position at some point, but I don't believe it will be in 2024.

 

They may not. However since the person who makes that call has not been hired yet, I don’t agree with you at this point in time. Naturally if the Sox get a GM who likes him there (which Bloom didn’t), it buys Devers some time.

 

Of course none of that changes what they SHOULD do at the hot corner…

Edited October 2, 2023 by notin

[Old Red]

I'm not here to make a list for you just so that you can piss all over it. That's moon's job.

I’m just saying I’m not as excited about the current crop from the farm as most of you are. I need to see more at the big league level.

[notin]

Especially with Casas occupying 1B.

 

And also doing a poor defensive job…

[Dipre]

I’m just saying I’m not as excited about the current crop from the farm as most of you are. I need to see more at the big league level.

 

A vital point that the new Red Sox shot-caller should take into consideration for sure.

[Maxbialystock]

For once, I'm going to try to keep this simple.

 

1. Current situation is not hopeless. 2012 team was hopeless (69-93), and the 2013 team won the WS.

 

2. Get 1-2 starters with real promise and/or track records. Spend the money and/or prospects. Given the current Sox glut of lefty bats, trade one or more away.

 

3. Improve the hitting, especially the righty bats. This year the Sox had one righty bat, Turner. Duvall missed too many games, Story stunk, Ref can't hit righties, etc.

 

4. Don't trade to improve the defense. Devers and Casas are our two best hitters and adequate at 3b and 1b. Story is excellent at SS, but killed us with his rotten hitting. Sox won with Kike, errors and and all, at SS and lost with Story at SS. Dodgers got better with Kike.

[Maxbialystock]

The Red Sox have finished in last place with a losing record the last two years with Devers. They could just as easy do the same thing without him. $300M+ is a lot of money to pay for someone who sucks on D.

 

For once I'm going to defend this very excellent point. People forget that the Sox got to the WS exactly one time, 1946, with Ted Williams whose career spanned 1939-1960. What a loser!!!! He too was piss-poor on defense, so bad that Jimmy Piersall asked for a salary increase because he had to cover LF as well as CF.

[Maxbialystock]

And also doing a poor defensive job…

 

So true. You can look it up: the Sox never went anywhere with a team full of good bats. Good hit, no field is a recipe for disaster.

[Old Red]

For once I'm going to defend this very excellent point. People forget that the Sox got to the WS exactly one time, 1946, with Ted Williams whose career spanned 1939-1960. What a loser!!!! He too was piss-poor on defense, so bad that Jimmy Piersall asked for a salary increase because he had to cover LF as well as CF.

 

Was Piersall the best Defensive CF the Red Sox have had? I vaguely remember him, but Casey Stengel said he was the best he ever saw.

[cp176]

Was Piersall the best Defensive CF the Red Sox have had? I vaguely remember him, but Casey Stengel said he was the best he ever saw.

 

Fred Lynn, Dom Dimaggio, JbJ.

[dgalehouse]

JBJ was the best Red Sox centerfielder that I have seen. And I go back pretty far. I do think strong defense up the middle is very important. At the corner infield spots, I have no problem swapping some defense for power. . Leave Devers and Casas alone. They are not the problem with this ballclub.

[moonslav59]

Counting on Pivetta to be a decent starter is laughable to me. The "he's the best 5th starter in MLB" isn't much to write home about. The Sox need to do better. It's fine if he's a long reliever that can start 10 games a year. If he's in the starting rotation on Opening Day, miss me with that.

 

As a SP'er, Pivetta has proven he can go longer than Houck, Whitlock and Crawford. He also has had some very long stretches of doing well as a SP'er, unlike most of those other 3 listed.

 

Would I rather have a better SP'er as our #5 than Pivetta, yes! But, I'm already getting "that will never happen," when I say we need 3 SP'ers. With no Pivetta, we'd need 4!

 

(BTW, I technically want Sale/Pivetta as the #5, and Bello as the #3, with 3 added SP'ers.)

[notin]

So true. You can look it up: the Sox never went anywhere with a team full of good bats. Good hit, no field is a recipe for disaster.

 

How did it work in 2023?

[moonslav59]

That's a pretty harsh take on a #5 starter. Pivetta's numbers over the last 3 years are fine for that profile.

 

First of all, needing to go down to 200 IP over the last 3 years combined, just to get a sample size of 150 SP'ers (5 teams x 5 in the rotation,) should tell you something about the state of innings eaters in MLB.

 

Let's see where Pivetta places out of the top 150 SP'ers by IP:

 

42 GS at 49 (more than most #2 SP'ers)

45 IP at 421 (middle of road 2nd starter amount)

77th fWAR at 4.7 (about like a middle of the road 3rd starter)

90 xFIP at 4.17 (worst 3rd SP'er in MLB- better than all 4th and 5th SP'ers.)

120 in ERA at 4.58 (worst 4th SP)

105 in ERA- at 105 (middle of the road 4th SP)

73 in SIERA at 4.08 (middle 3rd SP)

107 WHIP at 1.32 (middle 4th SP)

67 K-BB% at 16% (near top 3rd SP)

 

I'm not seeing a SP'er not worthy of a rotation slot, until we add 4 SP'ers with Bello. Sure, if Sale is healthy... Sure, if Houck can learn to go more than 4-5 IP.... Sure, if Crawford can prove 2023 was not a fluke and improve on his 4.51 ERA as a SP, including 5.40 over his last 6 starts....

 

Look, I hate building rotations from the 5 slot, but right now, I think he looks more likely to give us 28 GS, 160+ IP and an ERA around .425 or better than anyone else on the team, other than Bello. He's really our #2, right now. I'd like to make him share the number 5 slot with Sale, and I get grief.