Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Old Red]

Easier said than done though.

 

Understood 100%, but has what they’ve been doing worked out?

[mvp 78]

Easy was signing cheaper free agents.

 

If their plan was really to singularly focus on Yamamoto and not worry about anyone realistically until then, they f***ed up.

[mvp 78]

I don't think so either, given the market, teams will compete for his services, and seeing how this may be his only real chance at a big pay day he would take the years over the higher AAV. I think someone going to 176/8 - 170/7 is the team that gets Montg.

 

I want the Sox to grow some balls if they believe in a guy. But I think at this point they're very far into "put up or shut up" territory.

 

I don't have a crystal ball, but it's more likely they go the Paxton/Giolito/Montas grab bag route. "We're going to be competitive. The goal is the playoffs. Yada... Yada... Nada."

[mvp 78]

Monty is not an ace, and has gotten hype from being good down the stretch, and having a good postseason. Would he help? Yes,but not worth the contract. Snell has won two CY, but hasn’t been all that good in the years in between. Not worth the contract either. They need to trade for some young pitching somewhere with some years of control left. All I’ve heard for the last two years is firesale, firesale. That would have been the time to improve the pitching, but now it’s much more expensive, and big spenders are in need.

 

The Snell contract will make the Price contract seem like a steal.

[Old Red]

If their plan was really to singularly focus on Yamamoto and not worry about anyone realistically until then, they f***ed up.

 

If their focus was to singularly focus on the Yam Man then that’s 100% incompetence.

[mvp 78]

No, they wait until the 4th round to take guys throwing 90 MPH.

 

Under Bloom, that was the plan. I wonder if Crag pushes the velo envelope more as he has a different view on pitchers than Bloom does.

[Bellhorn04]

If their plan was really to singularly focus on Yamamoto and not worry about anyone realistically until then, they f***ed up.

 

It's worse than that, because it appears they weren't really even in on Yamamoto.

[Old Red]

The Snell contract will make the Price contract seem like a steal.

 

And as you’ve pointed out the years between Snell’s two CY have not been very good.

[mvp 78]

It's worse than that, because it appears they weren't really even in on Yamamoto.

 

Unless they were, but misjudged the market badly again.

 

OR Crag really wanted Yamamoto, but Henry said no to 300M+.

[mvp 78]

And as you’ve pointed out the years between Snell’s two CY have not been very good.

 

I think everyone can see that. I think in '22 the Pads were even talking about moving him out of the rotation at one point.

[Bellhorn04]

Unless they were, but misjudged the market badly again.

 

OR Crag really wanted Yamamoto, but Henry said no to 300M+.

 

They've been wrong about so much the last few years, I guess we shouldn't be surprised that they keep being wrong.

[Hugh2]

The thing about SNell is he was two Cy Youngs, not one but two. He was the best pitcher of baseball then fell off, then came back.

 

That makes him very risky, but it also means that if there's something in him that is fixable, he could be the biggest steal in free agency. If someone can get more of the 2023 version out of them they will be rewarded handsomely.

 

That team is probably not the Sox, if that permutation of Snells future even exists.

[Bellhorn04]

Snell is going to be too expensive, too risky AND cost a draft pick. Not even on the radar.

[vjcsmoke]

Most of us were in agreement on who the top 6 free agent starting pitchers were.

 

At this point it appears the Red Sox were not seriously in on any of them.

 

That's fairly incredible IMHO.

 

If the Red Sox are seriously sitting out free agency then the trade market is the only place to get a quality starting pitcher.

 

The Red Sox desperately need good starting pitching. Surely Craig Breslow isn't blind and knows this fact. But what moves is he making behind the scenes to fix this glaring issue?

[Hugh2]

If the Sox trade for a front line starter, what good is that if they're unwilling to sign that guy to an extension? In an age where guys don't sign extensions unless you give them what they think they can get in FA that just doesn't seem to make much sense.

 

It makes sense if you're a 90 win team and view that guy as the extra pieces to put you in world series championship mode for the next 3 years.

 

Unless you think a guy would give you a team friendly deal, but why would any pitcher on earth do that in Boston right now?

 

The allocation of resources at this point to try to build a better team today and have a brighter future, is to either draft and develop better pitchers OR go out and spend some freaking money on some pitchers AND draft and develop better pitchers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Snell is going to be too expensive, too risky AND cost a draft pick. Not even on the radar.

 

Because every offseason outlook of my favorite team the past half decade has sucked so badly, I'm entitled to post an opinion.

 

The Committee isn't about to invest $30M per year on any pitcher that needs fixing. Bailey may have to work his magic on prospects and the next crap of rehab projects.

 

Breslow can't confirm this publicly, though, until maybe next month, when Red Sox PR has told us he might talk to the media again.

 

At least we'll get fan questions and canned answers from the stage at the Winter Weekend...

[Hugh2]

I'm going to stand outside Fenway this year and hand out paper bags for people to wear over their heads.

[mvp 78]

The thing about SNell is he was two Cy Youngs, not one but two. He was the best pitcher of baseball then fell off, then came back.

 

That makes him very risky, but it also means that if there's something in him that is fixable, he could be the biggest steal in free agency. If someone can get more of the 2023 version out of them they will be rewarded handsomely.

 

That team is probably not the Sox, if that permutation of Snells future even exists.

 

He shouldn't have won the second CY anyway.

[Dipre]

Snell is a very very risky proposition.

[mvp 78]

I'm going to stand outside Fenway this year and hand out paper bags for people to wear over their heads.

 

Public pressure is what got them to re-sign Devers.

[Bellhorn04]

He shouldn't have won the second CY anyway.

 

Why not?

[Dipre]

Why not?

 

Because his season was very much smoke and mirrors, regardless of results, as I have eloquently presented before.

[Hugh2]

Public pressure is what got them to re-sign Devers.

 

I won't argue against that, I do wonder if they would have let him walk or would have traded him if they were able to resign Bogaerts.

[Bellhorn04]

Public pressure is what got them to re-sign Devers.

 

That's been said about Story too.

 

We really do think they're a bunch of clueless bozos now.

[Dipre]

Let's public pressure them into signing some pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

Because his season was very much smoke and mirrors, regardless of results, as I have eloquently presented before.

 

Some data would be nice though.

[mvp 78]

Why not?

 

Strider pitched more innings, had a higher k/9, lower bb/9, 20 WINS!, better FIP. Aside from ERA, everything about Strider's season was better AND he played on a team that was competitive and got to the playoffs. I would have went Strider > Gallen > Snell.

[Dipre]

Some data would be nice though.

 

Sure thing:

 

99 BB (led league), 5.9 BB/9, 5.8 H/9 (led league), .256 BABIP (league average around .301), 86.9% LOB rate (around 72% in 2023).

 

This isn't an issue of twisting numbers to make Snell look bad. He was, for all intents and purposes, one of the luckiest starting pitchers in the majors. He struck out a lot of guys, sure, but he walked a ton of guys, and the contact he gave up turned into outs at a rate that's almost miraculous, and most of the above average amount of guys that did reach base did not score. Dude had the perfect storm of luck, and that's unlikely to repeat. All of this without even touching the health risks. For context, two different projections systems peg him for a 3.65 ERA/ 3.73 FIP. Note that this year his FIP (3.44) was more than a full run higher than his ERA (2.25).

Edited December 26, 2023 by Dipre

[mvp 78]

Some data would be nice though.

 

Snell: 2.25 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, .256 BABIP (second lowest BABIP in the top 20)

 

Both times that Snell won the CY he had career low BABIPs: .256 and .241.

[Bellhorn04]

Fair enough about Snell. We don't have to worry about signing him anyway.