Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

We need to let it sink in that the Sox were NOT serious players for Moto.

 

So what exactly are they in on?

 

Full throttle to a top 5 draft pick?

[Bellhorn04]

Yuck.

 

No worries, it's just Interest. You know how that usually plays out.

[notin]

It's not the right question.

 

The question is how do they work out in general. The results are obviously mixed, but there are successful ones.

 

I will submit that Lackey was a good signing. He contributed to a title and when he was healthy he pitched well. We were better off with him than without him.

 

 

But also Lackey’s first 3 years were disastrous, especially considering he was the highest-paid pitcher in Sox history at the time. Year one was average, far below what was paid for. The next two were horrible by any standard. He was go Kelly good in 2013 (apart from his bland and meaningless W-L record) and he delivered big time against Detroit. But over 5 years, he was a hit who has his moments but didn’t live up.

 

And the reason is what it always is. Lackey was already 30 and had some 1500 MLB IP in his career. In his 4.5 years in Boston, he was worth 3.8 bWAR. THAT is a good free agent signing?

[Bellhorn04]

But also Lackey’s first 3 years were disastrous, especially considering he was the highest-paid pitcher in Sox history at the time. Year one was average, far below what was paid for.

 

The last sentence is blatantly false.

 

His 2010 fWAR was identical to his 2009 fWAR.

[Bellhorn04]

But also Lackey’s first 3 years were disastrous, especially considering he was the highest-paid pitcher in Sox history at the time. Year one was average, far below what was paid for. The next two were horrible by any standard. He was go Kelly good in 2013 (apart from his bland and meaningless W-L record) and he delivered big time against Detroit. But over 5 years, he was a hit who has his moments but didn’t live up.

 

And the reason is what it always is. Lackey was already 30 and had some 1500 MLB IP in his career. In his 4.5 years in Boston, he was worth 3.8 bWAR. THAT is a good free agent signing?

 

Please stop flip flopping between fWAR and bWAR.

[notin]

Please stop flip flopping between fWAR and bWAR.

 

Unlike fWAR, which is kinder to Lackey, bWAR is useful when a player spends time in a season on multiple teams…

[notin]

The last sentence is blatantly false.

 

His 2010 fWAR was identical to his 2009 fWAR.

 

 

Fair point. But his next two were not worth $35mill by any method of creative accounting…

[Bellhorn04]

Unlike fWAR, which is kinder to Lackey, bWAR is useful when a player spends time in a season on multiple teams…

 

You're just making stuff up now.

[Bellhorn04]

Fair point. But his next two were not worth $35mill by any method of creative accounting…

 

Why not give Epstein some credit for the injury clause that tacked on another year at minimum wage. Lackey was good in 2013, 2014, and 2015, which was the minimum wage season.

[moonslav59]

So why was Bloom fired at all?

 

And stop being unobservanr and unimaginative. It’s been pointed out HUNDREDS of times free agency is the worst place ti get pitching. Short term deals? Sure. But game-changing players? I’ve asked dozens of times the last time one of those deals worked out for Boston. And really, no good answer.

 

Now the trade market is a different story. Sale, Schilling and Pedro headline that list. And I know a lot of fans would prefer a free agent and keep the prospects, as free agents cost “only money”, but that’s because we’re all not thinking like team owners. We’re thinking like poor people. They’re thinking like billionaires. Prospects and money are two methods of acquiring new players, but in general, owners like to keep the money. Largely because, unlike prospects, everyone accepts it. They can’t go to the Lamborghini dealer and, when he asks how will you be paying, respond in good faith with “will you accept an 18yo Baseball America top 100 shortstop prospect and a 22yo MLB-ready starting pitcher?”

 

It turns out, Italian sports car dealers are not so into prospects.

 

Breslow been talking trade market all along, rarely mentioning free agent pitchers. I expect more along that line…

 

To trade ourselves to competitiveness would be to empty the entire farm of all top prospects.

 

I'd rather we just flip to sell mode and punt 2024.

 

If we can trade some everyday prospects for a pitcher with 3-5 years of team control, fine, but otherwise, just punt.

 

Why can Bloom?

 

To continue the sham. Brez did lighten the mood for a couple months.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm already starting to feel sorry for Breslow, actually.

[moonslav59]

No worries, it's just Interest. You know how that usually plays out.

 

Having interest in him shows our heads are up our asses.

[Bellhorn04]

Having interest in him shows our heads are up our asses.

 

True, even our ideas that won't happen are bad.

[moonslav59]

Fair point. But his next two were not worth $35mill by any method of creative accounting…

 

What free agents were?

 

Lackey did better than most FA signings at coming closer to expected value.

 

I would not single him out as FA signing failure. There are so many others that fit that mold much better.

[notin]

Having interest in him shows our heads are up our asses.

 

Well, yes and no.

 

Hernandez is a cheap “quick fix” outfield solution that potentially frees up another outfielder to be dealt for a pitcher. At least that is my assumption, and the only reason pursuit of him makes sense.

 

But unless the Sox have some pitcher-for-Duran/Rafaela/Abreu deal already lined up, it seems a bit complicated and risky…

[notin]

What free agents were?

 

Lackey did better than most FA signings at coming closer to expected value.

 

I would not single him out as FA signing failure. There are so many others that fit that mold much better.

 

I do isn’t single him out as a failure; I just wouldn’t single him out as a success either…

[moonslav59]

True, even our ideas that won't happen are bad.

 

Eflin, Nate, Turner and Duvall were good ideas, last winter.

 

Thinking paying Yamo a little more than Price ($217M/7) was some sort of realistic plan exposes one of two major problems, if not both:

 

Sox management has no idea what the FA market is.

 

Sox management thinks the fans will believe they honestly felt they might get Yamo.

 

We could have offered Eflin another year and got him.

We could have paid Nate, when he came back, hat in hand.

 

We could have paid Gray or ERod + Lugo.

 

We could have offered Yamo $340M/12, and if he said no, at least we'd feel like our owners tried to win.

[moonslav59]

Well, yes and no.

 

Hernandez is a cheap “quick fix” outfield solution that potentially frees up another outfielder to be dealt for a pitcher. At least that is my assumption, and the only reason pursuit of him makes sense.

 

But unless the Sox have some pitcher-for-Duran/Rafaela/Abreu deal already lined up, it seems a bit complicated and risky…

 

He's another LF/DH type. I'm sorry, I don't see a fit, at all.

 

Okay, if we trade Duran for a 2Bman or in a package for a decent SP and to keep Cora from playing him in CF, fine.

[moonslav59]

I do isn’t single him out as a failure; I just wouldn’t single him out as a success either…

 

To me, an overpay is the expectation for any big FA signing, so Lackey fall in the middle. It was an okay to decent signing- not real good, but not bad at all.

[moonslav59]

I do isn’t single him out as a failure; I just wouldn’t single him out as a success either…

 

Had we traded him for better than Alan Craig and Kelly, maybe we'd have viewed the signing in a better light.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To me, an overpay is the expectation for any big FA signing, so Lackey fall in the middle. It was an okay to decent signing- not real good, but not bad at all.

 

Personally, I think a Lackey comp, as far as the expectations vs. actual performance (not WAR numbers, posters) -- for such a high-priced investment at the time -- is Dice K.

 

Both had their moments and helped win rings; both had their injured years where they didn't help much at all. Overall? Depends on one's definition of value and worth (at least Dice K seemed like a decent guy to root for).

[Bellhorn04]

Had we traded him for better than Alan Craig and Kelly, maybe we'd have viewed the signing in a better light.

 

I think it's just another sign that we've gotten spoiled, because the fact that Lackey was instrumental in winning a ring gets shrugged off.

 

People don't bitch nearly as much about Keith Foulke not living up to his contract...

[Bellhorn04]

Personally, I think a Lackey comp, as far as the expectations vs. actual performance (not WAR numbers, posters) -- for such a high-priced investment at the time -- is Dice K.

 

Both had their moments and helped win rings; both had their injured years where they didn't help much at all. Overall? Depends on one's definition of value and worth (at least Dice K seemed like a decent guy to root for).

 

They went in different directions though. Dice-K broke down, Lackey bounced back.

[sk7326]

Is Nola really a top tier pitcher?

 

His ERA+ over the last 3 years is 103, basically league average.

 

He’s also 30 years old, and therefore not likely to get better.

 

To me, depends on the deal. 5 years or more at anything over $20mill - hard, hard, hard pass.

 

But I wouldn’t mind Nola on a shorter deal. The shorter the better…

 

The length would have bothered me too - though it is increasingly the cost of doing business, especially if you want to get below the tax line. The thing with Nola is that he is an absolute workhorse in a league where that is increasingly rare - and there is some knockon benefit for the pitching staff there. And he was a 6 win player in 2022, and his history shows while it has been inconsistent, the high end stuff is pretty good.

[moonslav59]

Best notable ERA- from 2021-2023: (150+ IP)

3. Bauer 63 (less than 150 IP)

5. Woodruff 65

6. Springs 65 (less than 150)

9. Burnes 70 (weighted heavily by 2021)

12. Senga 72 (coulda-shoulda...)

15. Urias 75 (Jail time?)

17. Glasnow 76

19. F valdez 76

27. Gray 79

32. Bieber 80 (injured?)

37. Sandoval 82 (not on the trade block)

40. Castillo 83

43. Stroman 84

44. Monty 85

45, Nate 85

48. Sale 87

51. Garrett 87

52. Javier & Wacha 88

59. M Perez 91

63. Montas 93

67. ERod, Rogers & Eflin 94

78. Nola 96

80, Luzardo 97

84. Urquidy, Clevinger, Lorenzen 98

88, Bello, Ryu 99

95. Houck 100

Pivetta 105

Flaherty 106

Manaea 112

Severino 115

Crawford 116

 

[Old Red]

Been out of the loop the past 4 days with a power outage, so haven’t been able to keep up on things. I take it I haven’t missed anything as far as the Red Sox are concerned. I see the Yam Man dog, and pony show is finally over, and glad to see the struggling Dodgers get their man. The Red Sox must have been in it right to the end.

[moonslav59]

Been out of the loop the past 4 days with a power outage, so haven’t been able to keep up on things. I take it I haven’t missed anything as far as the Red Sox are concerned. I see the Yam Man dog, and pony show is finally over, and glad to see the struggling Dodgers get their man. The Red Sox must have been in it right to the end.

 

Did you

Mean to post the last sentence in green?

[dgalehouse]

Let's not cry a river over losing out on Yamamoto. The guy has been as over hyped as anyone in recent memory and without having yet accomplished anything in MLB. He may turn out to be a bit of an expensive disappointment or even a total flop. Go get a couple of good, established winning pitchers for less money. It is not too late to do that.

[Old Red]

Did you

Mean to post the last sentence in green?

 

Green- Red-Blue.

[Old Red]

Let's not cry a river over losing out on Yamamoto. The guy has been as over hyped as anyone in recent memory and without having yet accomplished anything in MLB. He may turn out to be a bit of an expensive disappointment or even a total flop. Go get a couple of good, established winning pitchers for less money. It is not too late to do that.

Agree 100%. Overhyped, and overpriced. Complete dog, and pony show that the Red Sox shouldn’t even have shown up for considering the competition.