Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

In 2021, they basically just ran the same group out there and hoped for the best. The only meaningful additions were Kiké, Renfroe and Garrett Richards.

 

In 2013, they added Gomes, Victorino, Carp, Napoli, Drew, Uehara and Dempster.

 

Wow! Those 2013 additions looked fantastic, at the time... NOT!

 

(Did anyone expect them to do what AGon, Beckett and CC were expected to do in 2013?)

 

The win totals from '12-'15 were almost identical to "20-'23.

 

The great "JH era" was actually from 2003-2011 and '2016-2018. One could count 2019 and 2012, as hopes were high before the season started. (Hopes were not high before 2021, so in that sense, 2020-2023 was worse, I guess.)

 

[moonslav59]

In terms of wins, yes - in terms of hope, less so. I mean 2012 was a disappointment because of injuries, underperformance, and Bobby V's existence. 2013 was a bit of a fluke, though a lot of it came from the Red Sox getting good seasons from their actual stars. Victorino was a miracle, but the rest of it was just folks being healthy. And health was important in the 2014 situation. 2015 included the addition of two huge free agents who were both awful. There were mistakes, and struggles but the team was pretty proactive and each of those seasons had some reasonable ex ante hope.

 

The issue with 2022-23 in particular is the lack of visible ceiling for the ballclub.

 

Weren't the Sale, ERod (COVID), Nate, Story and other injuries major factors in our poor records from 2020-2023?

[moonslav59]

Call it lucky, but Whitlock was huge that year too.

 

Or call it unlucky he wasn't the same in '22 and '23.

[notin]

Regarding such a concept -- in the John Henry Century -- I've always thought: that does not compute.

 

To any fan of a big market team owned by a multi-billionaire -- saying, "Since we're not good enough, let's not get good players until we're good enough" -- is just not good enough.

 

 

“Let’s not try to get good until we’re good!”

[Bellhorn04]

There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

 

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

 

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

[notin]

Or call it unlucky he wasn't the same in '22 and '23.

 

When the proposed unlucky sample is twice the size of the proposed lucky sample, maybe you need to re-evaluate what the norm is…

[moonslav59]

When the proposed unlucky sample is twice the size of the proposed lucky sample, maybe you need to re-evaluate what the norm is…

 

Maybe.

 

Maybe a serious injury factors into it, as well.

 

(Not to mention a role change.)

[Bellhorn04]

When the proposed unlucky sample is twice the size of the proposed lucky sample, maybe you need to re-evaluate what the norm is…

 

But then toss in the injury factor and jockeying back and forth between rotation and bullpen and you get "Who the f'k knows?"

[moonslav59]

There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

 

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

 

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

 

Hard to believe any reports, these days.

[moonslav59]

But then toss in the injury factor and jockeying back and forth between rotation and bullpen and you get "Who the f'k knows?"

 

I know the guy has some nasty stuff and has shown the ability to control it.

 

I don't think 2021 was a fluke.

[notin]

But then toss in the injury factor and jockeying back and forth between rotation and bullpen and you get "Who the f'k knows?"

 

Or surrender to the possible conclusion that injuries are part of the norm…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think it helps to look at the long term horizon at times. Perhaps this isn't the year for the Sox, maybe they see their window starting in 2025, but if you like a pitcher in this years market better than what may come next year why not go out and make that move now?

 

Yamamoto is going to improve this team in 2024, but beyond that as well. Now maybe it's Montgomery/Snell/Burnes etc.

 

A couple good pitchers may not propel the Red Sox to the next World Series, but they will boost the club back to respectability -- which is absolutely imperative now.

 

And a respectable team has to be a more appealing landing spot for respectable free agents in the future, respectively speaking.

[moonslav59]

A couple good pitchers may not propel the Red Sox to the next World Series, but they will boost the club back to respectability -- which is absolutely imperative now.

 

And a respectable team has to be a more appealing landing spot for respectable free agents in the future, respectively speaking.

 

Like how adding Pablo and Hram paved the way for Price to choose Boston.

 

(Just yanking your chain. I agree 100%.)

[Hugh2]

This whole month pretending to be big players in the Moto Sweepstakes has been a clever ruse by Breslow and Co. (which is really Company and Brez).

 

Watch: after Yama signs for $400M with a New York team, all the other clubs will scramble to ink the consolation prizes... but not Boston... instead, the Red Sox will shock the world by announcing they paid off Japan to change its rules, and introduce the majors' first $500M-dollar pitcher -- Roki Sasaki!!!

 

 

Roki Sasaki is 22 years old, where is Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 25 and considered a free agent. Because he is under 25 years old Sasaki is subjected to the IFA rules. A team that lands him likely trades for as much IFA pool money as they can and maybe he gets around $10 million.

[sk7326]

Weren't the Sale, ERod (COVID), Nate, Story and other injuries major factors in our poor records from 2020-2023?

 

I think they were - but the ceiling is considerably less than the situation the decade before. After all, the 2015 team had Bogaerts and Mookie as a combined 10 wins of player. There were more green shoots. Now, 2024 might have some green shoots - but we'll see.

 

I tend to throw 2020 out the window for sample size reasons. 2022 I think injuries were significant, though really the difference between 76 and 88 wins. The players we are dreaming on now are just not as good as the 2012-2015 editions.

[notin]

I think they were - but the ceiling is considerably less than the situation the decade before. After all, the 2015 team had Bogaerts and Mookie as a combined 10 wins of player. There were more green shoots. Now, 2024 might have some green shoots - but we'll see.

 

I tend to throw 2020 out the window for sample size reasons. 2022 I think injuries were significant, though really the difference between 76 and 88 wins. The players we are dreaming on now are just not as good as the 2012-2015 editions.

 

Maybe not, but this time some of them are pitchers…

[sk7326]

Maybe not, but this time some of them are pitchers…

 

If they add a couple of premium arms, the equation changes. But the case for this team being back will be the young position players blossoming, so we'll see there.

[moonslav59]

I think they were - but the ceiling is considerably less than the situation the decade before. After all, the 2015 team had Bogaerts and Mookie as a combined 10 wins of player. There were more green shoots. Now, 2024 might have some green shoots - but we'll see.

 

I tend to throw 2020 out the window for sample size reasons. 2022 I think injuries were significant, though really the difference between 76 and 88 wins. The players we are dreaming on now are just not as good as the 2012-2015 editions.

 

Okay, yes, Betts and Bogey- two 23 year olds with the sky as the limit, but the foundation around them was in shambles. JBJ was about to step in, but Papi was one year away from retiring, and it took a lot of trades and FA signings for DD to fill all the holes on the 2015 team.

 

These were the leading PA players ate each position:

C- Swihart .712

1B- Napoli .693

2B- Pedey .797

SS- Bogey .776

3B- Pablito .658

LF- HRam .717 (had best year in BOS in DD's first season)

CF- Betts .820

RF- Castillo .647

DH- Papi .913 (actually got better in 2016, before retiring.)

UT- Holt .727 (505 PAs was 3rd on team)

OF JBJ .832 (255 PAs)

1B- TShaw .813 (248)

C2- Hanigan .664

 

GS

32 Miley 4.46

28 Porcello 4.92 (about to win Cy Young)

25 Kelly 4.82 (moved to pen)

21 ERod 3.85

18 Buccholz 3.26

11 Owens 4.57, 9 Wright 4.09, 9 Masterson 5.61

 

Pen

40 year old Uehara (40 IP)

IP

65 Ogando

61 R Ross

59 Tazawa

56 Breslow

48 Layne

33 Barnes

25 Hembree

 

I see a hell of a lot of major holes on that team.

 

This team may not have Betts, Bogey, JBJ and Pedey, but I see less major holes.

 

[moonslav59]

Yankees claim Jeter Downs off waivers.

 

See, I told you they were in decline.

[Bellhorn04]

Yankees claim Jeter Downs off waivers.

 

See, I told you they were in decline.

 

Jeez, if we trade them Wong, they'll have the whole Mookie trade return...

[moonslav59]

Jeez, if we trade them Wong, they'll have the whole Mookie trade return...

 

Wong & EValdez for Torres?

[notin]

Jeez, if we trade them Wong, they'll have the whole Mookie trade return...

 

That include the two last place finishes?

[Bellhorn04]

That include the two last place finishes?

 

The three last place finishes, you mean?

[moonslav59]

The three last place finishes, you mean?

 

2020 does not count.

[notin]

Wong & EValdez for Torres?

 

I assume we will also be sending the photo negatives of whatever blackmail evidence we also need to make that trade…

[Bellhorn04]

2020 does not count.

 

I think mvp and notin both made mistakes.

[Bellhorn04]

I assume we will also be sending the photo negatives of whatever blackmail evidence we also need to make that trade…

 

That trade exists only in moon's hypothetical otherworld.

[notin]

I think mvp and notin both made mistakes.

 

I make mistakes, but 2020 doesn’t count. They were in last place but it was only 60 games. That’s not a season.

 

If Maris has to die with an asterisk because of an 8 game difference, then 2020 deserves 12.75 asterisks…

[dgalehouse]

According to the official baseball record book, the 2020 season counts, despite some wishing it didn't. The Dodgers, led by newly acquired Mookie Betts, won the World Series. And from watching our beloved Red Sox mail it in that season, did you really want to see it last longer?

[moonslav59]

I think mvp and notin both made mistakes.

 

That's gonna leave a mark!