Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

And Snell is just flat out overrated…

 

If he pitched more innings, he'd be worth it.

[Bellhorn04]

And Snell is just flat out overrated…

 

He averages 3.77 fWAR per 175 innings. He's very good. The injury risk is the real minus.

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure what is going on with TalkSox today, but I did not write post 4316.

 

LOL I couldn't log in for a while. I thought maybe the server was overheated by too many angry posts.

[jad]

I know I’m in the minority in thinking on this, but I just can’t see way overpaying for someone. Gray had never made more than $10M before, and now at age 34 he’s worth $25M/yr? Has he gotten that good? No. He’s just available. Monty was projected at 5/$105M before this all started, and they said he would only get a 5th yr, because that’s what it would take, and not, because he’s that good

 

Well, you should be happy then. This is why we don't have Betts, or Bogaerts, or (going back) Lester. And because the RS are so firm in this theory which they share with you, that too explains the many last-place finishes.

[mvp 78]

LOL I couldn't log in for a while. I thought maybe the server was overheated by too many angry posts.

 

I think TalkSox cursed my account with a moon post...

[mvp 78]

Well, you should be happy then. This is why we don't have Betts, or Bogaerts, or (going back) Lester. And because the RS are so firm in this theory which they share with you, that too explains the many last-place finishes.

 

Tampa Bay North!

[Bellhorn04]

Tampa Bay North!

 

Without the low payrolls and good W-L records.

[Dipre]

He averages 3.77 fWAR per 175 innings. He's very good. The injury risk is the real minus.

 

5.0 BB/9, .256 BBAIP, 2.25 ERA to 3.44 FIP. Smoke and mirrors.

[Bellhorn04]

5.0 BB/9, .256 BBAIP, 2.25 ERA to 3.44 FIP. Smoke and mirrors.

 

Career fWAR numbers are smoke and mirrors? OK...

[Dipre]

Well, you should be happy then. This is why we don't have Betts, or Bogaerts, or (going back) Lester. And because the RS are so firm in this theory which they share with you, that too explains the many last-place finishes.

 

This isn't just a money issue. Other teams with similar or lower payrolls are making the playoffs, while teams with much higher payrolls didn't even sniff the playoffs last year. It's an org issue.

[moonslav59]

I know I’m in the minority in thinking on this, but I just can’t see way overpaying for someone. Gray had never made more than $10M before, and now at age 34 he’s worth $25M/yr? Has he gotten that good? No. He’s just available. Monty was projected at 5/$105M before this all started, and they said he would only get a 5th yr, because that’s what it would take, and not, because he’s that good

 

I could be wrong, but wasn't Gray's last contract agreed to during his arb period, hence the non market type level of pay?

[mvp 78]

Without the low payrolls and good W-L records.

 

We have to pay more because of state taxes!

[moonslav59]

I think TalkSox cursed my account with a moon post...

 

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

 

Thanks, MVP.

[Dipre]

Career fWAR numbers are smoke and mirrors? OK...

 

If you're going to pay a guy elite-player money, he better have elite skills. Snell's year was good, not great, as referenced by his 4.1 WAR even though he lead starters in ERA over 180 IP.

[mvp 78]

5.0 BB/9, .256 BBAIP, 2.25 ERA to 3.44 FIP. Smoke and mirrors.

 

Yeah, he's a 3 ERA guy, not a low 2's. He has the ace upside where you might get a CY season out of him here or there, but he should be solid if he can get innings. He usually has 90th percentile whiff and k rates.

[mvp 78]

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

 

Thanks, MVP.

 

I've never posted the "Yamo" slur in my life.

[Bellhorn04]

If you're going to pay a guy elite-player money, he better have elite skills. Snell's year was good, not great, as referenced by his 4.1 WAR even though he lead starters in ERA over 180 IP.

 

He was 14th in the majors in fWAR (sandwiched between Montgomery and Nola). Maybe overrated, but still pretty good.

 

Burnes had a 3.4 fWAR in more innings than Snell.

[moonslav59]

Career fWAR numbers are smoke and mirrors? OK...

 

No. They are what they are:

 

21.4 in 8 yrs (about 2.6 per season fWAR and 2.6 bWAR)

 

9.8 in the last 3 years is better (3.3 per season fWAR and 3.1 bWAR)

 

Last 3 years for Monty?

3.4 fWAR per season

3.0 bWAR

[moonslav59]

I've never posted the "Yamo" slur in my life.

 

Who did?

[Dipre]

He was 14th in the majors in fWAR (sandwiched between Montgomery and Nola). Maybe overrated, but still pretty good.

 

Burnes had a 3.4 fWAR in more innings than Snell.

 

Haven't seen me even reference Burnes, as I think his last year is indicative of issues with his performance. His ERA has increased yearly since his breakout, while his K rate has also steadily decreased.

[moonslav59]

Let's see, if he can stick with a team for more than a year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Have to think there will be some serious Red Sox news coming soon, if only because Winter Weekend is a month away...

 

Brez and the rez can't possibly go there without having made significant additions to the big league roster, lest they get booed right off the stage.

 

And don't be surprised if Chaim is in the audience, disguised in a gorilla mask, asking Craig or Sam (Henry will be a no-show) to explain why they think '24 will be awesome.

[moonslav59]

Haven't seen me even reference Burnes, as I think his last year is indicative of issues with his performance. His ERA has increased yearly since his breakout, while his K rate has also steadily decreased.

 

He's only pitched over 60 IP, in his last 3 years. That 2021 season was amazing, but he has been very good for the two following years.

 

ERA-: 58> 73> 77

xFIP: 2.43>3.05>3.40

 

It has been a steady decline, but a 3 year sample size is hard to determine a longer trend.

 

All these candidates have questions.

 

My biggest worry about Burnes is not his projected value going forward: it's the 1 year of control.

[Dipre]

He's only pitched over 60 IP, in his last 3 years. That 2021 season was amazing, but he has been very good for the two following years.

 

ERA-: 58> 73> 77

xFIP: 2.43>3.05>3.40

 

It has been a steady decline, but a 3 year sample size is hard to determine a longer trend.

 

All these candidates have questions.

 

My biggest worry about Burnes is not his projected value going forward: it's the 1 year of control.

 

A three year sample is statistically significant. Let's not try to minimize the issue. You don't want to pay for sub-3 ERA, 12 K/9 Burnes, and get 3.5 ERA, 9.00 K/9 ERA Burnes that's declining on a yearly basis.

[Bellhorn04]

Burnes probably isn't on the Sox radar at all.

[Bellhorn04]

He's only pitched over 60 IP, in his last 3 years. That 2021 season was amazing, but he has been very good for the two following years.

 

ERA-: 58> 73> 77

xFIP: 2.43>3.05>3.40

 

It has been a steady decline, but a 3 year sample size is hard to determine a longer trend.

 

All these candidates have questions.

 

That's the thing, you can find something you don't like in any pitcher that's available-including Moto, if $300 million contracts and opt out clauses make you nervous...

[Dipre]

That's the thing, you can find something you don't like in any pitcher that's available-including Moto, if $300 million contracts and opt out clauses make you nervous...

 

I'd pay 10/350 for Yamamoto, or around a third of that for Imanaga/Montgomery without batting an eye.

[moonslav59]

That's the thing, you can find something you don't like in any pitcher that's available-including Moto, if $300 million contracts and opt out clauses make you nervous...

 

Agreed. I just said the same thing on the other thread.

 

To me, the worst thing about any of these options, from my perspective, is the years of control. If we get Burnes for 1 year, and he bolts, that would really suck.

 

That being said, getting Yamo for 10 years and watching him suck would be worse, but I think at worse, he'll be just a good to decent pitcher for 6-7 years.

[moonslav59]

I'd pay 10/350 for Yamamoto, or around a third of that for Imanaga/Montgomery without batting an eye.

 

How about Yamo vs Monty + Imanaga?

 

Same cost.

 

Then, you have one less major slot to fill and can spend the leftover money on 2B and maybe C, RF or third SP.

[moonslav59]

A three year sample is statistically significant. Let's not try to minimize the issue. You don't want to pay for sub-3 ERA, 12 K/9 Burnes, and get 3.5 ERA, 9.00 K/9 ERA Burnes that's declining on a yearly basis.

 

It is very significant. It's the time frame I use most often.

 

My point was about recognizing a trend in 3 years as an indicator of future projections.