Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Free agent bWAR

 

Snell 6.0

Gray 5.3

Nola 2.1

Montgomery 2.1

Lorenzen 1.9 (2.1 with Detroit)

 

 

Gray will clearly be more expensive than I thought, but even at the same price as Nola, he might be worth it…

[sk7326]

Free agent bWAR

 

Snell 6.0

Gray 5.3

Nola 2.1

Montgomery 2.1

Lorenzen 1.9 (2.1 with Detroit)

 

 

Gray will clearly be more expensive than I thought, but even at the same price as Nola, he might be worth it…

 

I have serious doubts Nola leaves Philly - particularly with the postseason success.

[Dipre]

SO the Sox have 69 million to spend, hypothetically. If you assume they will go over the luxury tax and are willing to go up against the next threshold that's their top budget. Probably need a few million to account for promotions, trades etc etc. Call it 60 million.

 

Depending on how you spend that money and other transactions you make, that $60 million grows. If you're signing Yamamoto and Aaron Nola (for example) you can make the argument to trade away Nick Pivetta, and if you end up trading for a guy like Soto, or some other move that involves moving Verdugo that's another $9 million off the books. Also, I think there's a good chance that the Sox non-tender Urias. Now you have more like $80.00 to play with.

 

Haha, nice.

[Dipre]

From watching Nola in the playoffs, I'd stay away from him; his curve could be crushable vs. AL Beasts -- and for the cost, I'd rather the Sox sign Lorenzen (as a #3), who has similar stuff.

 

Montgomery is the prize lefty after Snell... but his price could rise in the World Series.

 

Exactly why you don't trust the eye test. They don't have similar stuff, velocity, pitch sequencing, or results for that matter. And both are buyer beware.

[mvp 78]

Most likely.

 

And probably not Nola nor Yamamoto. More likely Gray or Lorenzen…

 

No fun.

[moonslav59]

Free agent bWAR

 

Snell 6.0

Gray 5.3

Nola 2.1

Montgomery 2.1

Lorenzen 1.9 (2.1 with Detroit)

 

 

Gray will clearly be more expensive than I thought, but even at the same price as Nola, he might be worth it…

 

3.1 Charlie Morton (Won't get a long deal.)

2.4 Wacha (5.7 in '22+'23)

2.1 ERod (has a player option)

1.6 Giolito (2.8 w CWS)

 

 

[Hugh2]

From watching Nola in the playoffs, I'd stay away from him; his curve could be crushable vs. AL Beasts -- and for the cost, I'd rather the Sox sign Lorenzen (as a #3), who has similar stuff.

 

Montgomery is the prize lefty after Snell... but his price could rise in the World Series.

 

Hey put whatever names you want in there. My point is, Sox could have around $80 million to spend if they want.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Exactly why you don't trust the eye test. They don't have similar stuff, velocity, pitch sequencing, or results for that matter. And both are buyer beware.

 

I know -- what's my problem, actually watching the games? I should turn off the TV and just listen to radio broadcasts. Differences between pitchers are easier to detect, based on the pop of the catcher's mitt and crack of the bat.

[Hugh2]

Haha, nice.

 

Grow up Robert Gronkowski.

[notin]

No fun.

 

We’re talking about baseball!! Who said anything about fun?!!

[notin]

I have serious doubts Nola leaves Philly - particularly with the postseason success.

 

I’m fine with that. He’s good, but overrated…

[Hugh2]

Given the recent trends of last place finishes and the pathetically massive gaping hole that exists in what is supposed to be an MLB rotation, I'd be very disappointed if the Sox didn't spend a decent chunk of that $80 million on pitching.

 

I want talent. Not back of the rotation starters, or guys who have pitched more than 113 innings one time in their careers and are in their 30's but that's just me.

 

Yama/Ohtani/Snell/Nola/Montgomery. Not saying it's realistic but I want two of those, I think we are spoiled enough as fans of a large market team to expect the Sox to go after one of those names. Damn the past 4 years, John Henry needs to be slapped in the face and reminded that 3/4 of his World Series came with a top 3 payroll.

[notin]

Given the recent trends of last place finishes and the pathetically massive gaping hole that exists in what is supposed to be an MLB rotation, I'd be very disappointed if the Sox didn't spend a decent chunk of that $80 million on pitching.

 

I want talent. Not back of the rotation starters, or guys who have pitched more than 113 innings one time in their careers and are in their 30's but that's just me.

 

Yama/Ohtani/Snell/Nola/Montgomery. Not saying it's realistic but I want two of those, I think we are spoiled enough as fans of a large market team to expect the Sox to go after one of those names. Damn the past 4 years, John Henry needs to be slapped in the face and reminded that 3/4 of his World Series came with a top 3 payroll.

 

Ohtani won’t help the 2024 rotation and DH (especially a left handed one) is not a primary need…

[Hugh2]

Ohtani won’t help the 2024 rotation and DH (especially a left handed one) is not a primary need…

 

No it's not, but hypothetically you could sign him and still have 30-40 million to spend. I don't know how to best spend $80 million dollars per annum, only that I would love to have that much money in my budget.

[Dipre]

Grow up Robert Gronkowski.

 

I wish!

[Dipre]

I know -- what's my problem, actually watching the games? I should turn off the TV and just listen to radio broadcasts. Differences between pitchers are easier to detect, based on the pop of the catcher's mitt and crack of the bat.

 

Yeah how about sticking to the topic and leaving the platitudes. The point is your eyes can deceive you.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The point is your eyes can deceive you.

 

Yours, too. Hopefully, you'll consider some of what you see on forums as just posters' opinions -- and not always people arguing.

[Dipre]

Yours, too. Hopefully, you'll consider some of what you see on forums as just posters' opinions -- and not always people arguing.

 

That's.....that's literally what forums are for. Start a blog stating your "I WATCH THE GAMEZZZZZZ" opinions then, if you don't want them to be debated.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m fine with that. He’s good, but overrated…

 

By FanGraphs?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's.....that's literally what forums are for. Start a blog stating your "I WATCH THE GAMEZZZZZZ" opinions then, if you don't want them to be debated.

 

You can debate whatever you want, but I won't disparage your opinion. For instance, if your observation is that two pitchers look similar on TV, I can't tell you you're wrong -- but if I have a different perspective, like standing in the batter's box against each of them, I can add that to the discussion.

[Dipre]

You can debate whatever you want, but I won't disparage your opinion. For instance, if your observation is that two pitchers look similar on TV, I can't tell you you're wrong -- but if I have a different perspective, like standing in the batter's box against each of them, I can add that to the discussion.

 

Jesus Christ.

[notin]

By FanGraphs?

 

Are you back on fWAR now? Corey Kluber is itching to know…

[Bellhorn04]

Are you back on fWAR now? Corey Kluber is itching to know…

 

I've been sticking faithfully to fWAR for a while now, in case you didn't notice. Go back and check my posts when you have a weekend to spare.

 

I do think that when there's a significant gap between fWAR and bWAR for a pitcher, as was the case with Kluber in 2022, some further review might be in order.

[mvp 78]

Giants hired Melving. Tek stays in BOS for now.

[dgalehouse]

We are certainly pushing the boundaries of just what is considered offensive on here .

[notin]

I wish!

 

I've been sticking faithfully to fWAR for a while now, in case you didn't notice. Go back and check my posts when you have a weekend to spare.

 

I do think that when there's a significant gap between fWAR and bWAR for a pitcher, as was the case with Kluber in 2022, some further review might be in order.

 

There is one with Nola - 3.9 fWAR and 2.1 bWAR.

 

If nothing else, that clearly means he excels in one of the areas that one stat is based on, but clearly not the bases of both.

 

I think at a minimum that merits investigation or hesitation. Hence my overrated comment.

 

I actually prefer fWAR normally, baseball ref loads much easier than Fangraphs on my phone…

[moonslav59]

I know -- what's my problem, actually watching the games? I should turn off the TV and just listen to radio broadcasts. Differences between pitchers are easier to detect, based on the pop of the catcher's mitt and crack of the bat.

 

Apparently, the best "eye test" is looking at the box scores in the morning paper.

[Bellhorn04]

There is one with Nola - 3.9 fWAR and 2.1 bWAR.

 

If nothing else, that clearly means he excels in one of the areas that one stat is based on, but clearly not the bases of both.

 

I think at a minimum that merits investigation or hesitation. Hence my overrated comment.

 

I actually prefer fWAR normally, baseball ref loads much easier than Fangraphs on my phone…

 

Need to look at the longer sample for him though, no? He's been consistently good and durable.

[Hugh2]

For a while I was all about bWar, then I was “well BWar is good for position players and Fwar better for pitchers”. I just think Fwar is better now.

 

I actually still prefer baseball reference for looking up player stats, but fangraphs has some functions BR does not, and Fwar is better

[moonslav59]

For a while I was all about bWar, then I was “well BWar is good for position players and Fwar better for pitchers”. I just think Fwar is better now.

 

I actually still prefer baseball reference for looking up player stats, but fangraphs has some functions BR does not, and Fwar is better

 

I get the value of FIP, but I think fWAR gos a bit overboard on its influence on their score.

 

Some low K pitchers are damn good, and they get whacked on fWAR.