Trade Deadline 2023

[Bellhorn04]

Anyone can beat anyone in a short series. But it's not likely, which I think is his point.

 

The 2021 Red Sox had no business beating the Rays, but they did. Upsets happen a lot.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kyle Hendricks is another possibility.

 

Hendricks would be a luxury, compared to what will be available to CBOs only looking for a #4 MLB starter that also-rans no longer want to pay (and willing to trade a #4 minor league starter).

 

Lance Lynn, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Williams... what the -- let's just bring back Rich Hill!

[mvp 78]

Rob Bradford of WEEI reported yesterday the Sox are seeking to add pitching depth. He suggests a back-of-the-rotation starter and a right-handed middle relief option are on the target list.

 

Each of those player types should be attainable. Veteran back-end starters change hands every deadline season. Michael Lorenzen, Carlos Carrasco, Lance Lynn and recurring Sox’s target Rich Hill are among the impending free agents who are unlikely to require a hefty acquisition cost.

 

They could have just signed Rich Hill in the offseason.

[Dojji]

Speaking of recurring Red sox targets what do you guys think about possibly targeting Wade Miley of the Brewers? The Crew have some gaping holes in their lineup and are one of the few teams with something of a glut of decent pitching. this seems to me like a rare situation where a couple contenders can get something done that makes sense for both of them. Miley seems to be getting it done, he's pitched here before, and his contract isn't a bankbuster.

[Dipre]

Buyer beware on Miley. His statcast xERA is almost 5.00.

[notin]

Speaking of recurring Red sox targets what do you guys think about possibly targeting Wade Miley of the Brewers? The Crew have some gaping holes in their lineup and are one of the few teams with something of a glut of decent pitching. this seems to me like a rare situation where a couple contenders can get something done that makes sense for both of them. Miley seems to be getting it done, he's pitched here before, and his contract isn't a bankbuster.

 

Joe Castiglione once mentioned of all the Sox players he’s met, almost if of them were nice people. And only one player stood out just terribly unfriendly and unpleasant. I got the impression if EEI let Castiglione say “*******”, he would have. He didn’t name the player, but he did follow up with “he has a no hitter this year.”

 

Castiglione made that comment in 2021…

[mvp 78]

Joe Castiglione once mentioned of all the Sox players he’s met, almost if of them were nice people. And only one player stood out just terribly unfriendly and unpleasant. I got the impression if EEI let Castiglione say “*******”, he would have. He didn’t name the player, but he did follow up with “he has a no hitter this year.”

 

Castiglione made that comment in 2021…

 

Craig Kimbrell. https://www.espn.com/mlb/history/nohitters/_/year/2021

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Rob Bradford of WEEI reported yesterday the Sox are seeking to add pitching depth. He suggests a back-of-the-rotation starter and a right-handed middle relief option are on the target list.

 

Each of those player types should be attainable. Veteran back-end starters change hands every deadline season. Michael Lorenzen, Carlos Carrasco, Lance Lynn and recurring Sox’s target Rich Hill are among the impending free agents who are unlikely to require a hefty acquisition cost.

 

They could have just signed Rich Hill in the offseason.

 

I missed Lorenzen. Back when the NL was still the only league at any level in the universe that banned the DH, he was a two-way threat.

 

Not Ohtani, but at least O: seven career dingers, including four in 2018 when he hit .290 in 31 ABs... The Sox could use another righty power bat.

[mvp 78]

I missed Lorenzen. Back when the NL was still the only league at any level in the universe that banned the DH, he was a two-way threat.

 

Not Ohtani, but at least O: seven career dingers, including four in 2018 when he hit .290 in 31 ABs... The Sox could use another righty power bat.

 

He was mainly a reliever for the Reds for many years. I really haven't paid much attention to him. He only has 60 career starts, half of which came after turning 30.

[notin]

Craig Kimbrell. https://www.espn.com/mlb/history/nohitters/_/year/2021

 

LOL

Pretty sure he meant Miley. He might have even made that comment prior to Kimbrel’s part in the combined no hitter.

 

Miley would go on to get released by the Reds that year despite having a very reasonable option year left…

[dgalehouse]

As usual, the trade deadline deals are very slow to get started. Only Texas (with Chapman ) has made a significant move so far. Everyone is playing the waiting game. A lot of rumors , but no action.

[moonslav59]

As usual, the trade deadline deals are very slow to get started. Only Texas (with Chapman ) has made a significant move so far. Everyone is playing the waiting game. A lot of rumors , but no action.

 

I was hoping we'd jump the gun on adding a SP'er, so we could lessen these pen games.

 

We can't count on last night's example to keep repeating itself.

[mvp 78]

BTV approves:

 

Lorenzen

 

for

 

Mata

[mvp 78]

BTV approves:

 

Lorenzen

 

for

 

Mata

 

OR

 

Lorenzen and ERod

 

for

 

Drohan, Mata and Lugo

[moonslav59]

BTV has these values:

 

2 month Rentals

9.7 Giolito CWS

8.8 Montgomery STL

8.5 Snell SDP

6.1 Stroman CHC

5.7 ERod DET

2.1 W Miley MIL

 

Longer Term (Years)

56.0 Keller (2.3) PIT

51.4 Cease (2.3) CWS

40.7 Burnes (1.3) MIL

36.8 Musgrove (4.3) SDP

35.1 Sandoval (3.3) LAA

27.4 Senga (1.3) NYM

26.6 S Gray (4.3) WSH

24.1 Canning (2.3) LAA

22.4 Sears (5.3) OAK

21.9 Lynch (4.3) KCR

20.0 Singer (3.3) KCR

10.7 Blackburn (2.3) OAK

4.4 S Lugo (1.3) SDP

2.7 Houser (1.3) MIL

-34.5 Verlander (2.3) NYM

 

Sox Values

63 Mayer

51 Duran

49 Bello

42 Casas

35 Devers

32 Houck

28 Bleis & Anthony

20 Crawford & Yoshida

19 Yorke & Verdugo

17 Whitlock

13 Rafaela

9 Alcantara, Schreiber & Romero

6 Paxton & Paulino

5 Drohan

4 Wong, Perales, Wikelman, EValdez & Walter

3 Meidroth, Pivetta & E R-C

2.5 Hickey & Brannon

2.4 Abreu, DHam, Cespedes, Jordan, Wink & Monegro

2.2 Bastrado, Mata & Murphy

2.1 Encarnacion

2.0 Guerrero, Castro, Refsnyder, Bonaci, Fernandez, Blalock & Lugo

 

[Hugh2]

OR

 

Lorenzen and ERod

 

for

 

Drohan, Mata and Lugo

 

I’d do it

[Dojji]

Mata is currently in sitting at more than a walk per inning on the Worsox. Drohan is also quite wild and not that effective Neither of these guuys are going to be what people with pieces like Lorenzen or E-Rod are gonna look for.

 

Try again with Anthony, Perales and Romero and then start thhining about what more we can offer.

[moonslav59]

Mata is currently in sitting at more than a walk per inning on the Worsox. Drohan is also quite wild and not that effective Neither of these guuys are going to be what people with pieces like Lorenzen or E-Rod are gonna look for.

 

Try again with Anthony, Perales and Romero and then start thhining about what more we can offer.

 

2 month rentals don't get the returns they used to get. Look at the BTV values for the rentals:

 

9.7 Giolito CWS

8.8 Montgomery STL

8.5 Snell SDP

6.1 Stroman CHC

5.7 ERod DET

2.1 W Miley MIL

 

Now look at some of our player values:

 

9 Alcantara & Romero

6 Paulino

5 Drohan

4 Perales, Wikelman, EValdez & Walter

3 Meidroth & E R-C

2.5 Hickey & Brannon

2.4 Abreu, DHam, Cespedes, Jordan & Monegro

2.2 Bastrado, Mata & Murphy

2.1 Encarnacion

2.0 Guerrero, Castro, Bonaci, Fernandez, Blalock & Lugo

 

These might be some trades the other teams might make:

 

Giolito or Montgomery for Romero or Perales & Paulino

 

Snell for Drohan & Walter or Perales & Wikelman

 

Stroman or ERod for Paulino or Walter & Jordan

 

Miley for Bonaci or Lugo

 

[Bellhorn04]

2 month rentals don't get the returns they used to get. Look at the BTV values for the rentals:

 

9.7 Giolito CWS

8.8 Montgomery STL

8.5 Snell SDP

6.1 Stroman CHC

5.7 ERod DET

2.1 W Miley MIL

 

Now look at some of our player values:

 

9 Alcantara & Romero

6 Paulino

5 Drohan

4 Perales, Wikelman, EValdez & Walter

3 Meidroth & E R-C

2.5 Hickey & Brannon

2.4 Abreu, DHam, Cespedes, Jordan & Monegro

2.2 Bastrado, Mata & Murphy

2.1 Encarnacion

2.0 Guerrero, Castro, Bonaci, Fernandez, Blalock & Lugo

 

These might be some trades the other teams might make:

 

Giolito or Montgomery for Romero or Perales & Paulino

 

Snell for Drohan & Walter or Perales & Wikelman

 

Stroman or ERod for Paulino or Walter & Jordan

 

Miley for Bonaci or Lugo

 

 

BTV is a pretty pure calculation, though. It's based on projected WAR and salary, right? And it's only for 1/3 of a season. A star player might have a projected WAR of 1.5 to 2 for 1/3 of a season.

 

What's left out of the calculation is the postseason value of the player acquired. Because that's often a big part of the equation. Like when Theo traded Torres for Chapman.

[moonslav59]

BTV is a pretty pure calculation, though. It's based on projected WAR and salary, right? And it's only for 1/3 of a season. A star player might have a projected WAR of 1.5 to 2 for 1/3 of a season.

 

 

Yes, and the salary is pro-rated as part of the value.

 

They just updated their values as you can see with Duran's big boost.

 

BTV is not perfect, but their values have been proven to be pretty accurate.

[mvp 78]

Mata is currently in sitting at more than a walk per inning on the Worsox. Drohan is also quite wild and not that effective Neither of these guuys are going to be what people with pieces like Lorenzen or E-Rod are gonna look for.

 

Try again with Anthony, Perales and Romero and then start thhining about what more we can offer.

 

LOL, no. They aren't trading for an ace.

[mvp 78]

BTV is a pretty pure calculation, though. It's based on projected WAR and salary, right? And it's only for 1/3 of a season. A star player might have a projected WAR of 1.5 to 2 for 1/3 of a season.

 

What's left out of the calculation is the postseason value of the player acquired. Because that's often a big part of the equation. Like when Theo traded Torres for Chapman.

 

The past few trade deadlines have really diminished the returns that people have expected. You don't get the boon you once did for offloading players.

[mvp 78]

Yes, and the salary is pro-rated as part of the value.

 

They just updated their values as you can see with Duran's big boost.

 

BTV is not perfect, but their values have been proven to be pretty accurate.

 

There are trades here and there that throw off their models, but it's better than us just throwing names in a hat.

[notin]

As usual, the trade deadline deals are very slow to get started. Only Texas (with Chapman ) has made a significant move so far. Everyone is playing the waiting game. A lot of rumors , but no action.

 

There’s no reason for the sellers to accept any deal that doesn’t blow them away…

[mvp 78]

There’s no reason for the sellers to accept any deal that doesn’t blow them away…

 

Yeah, may as well just keep your expiring contracts and stay over the CBT so that your comp picks are much lower. It's a very smart decision!

[notin]

There are trades here and there that throw off their models, but it's better than us just throwing names in a hat.

 

Oakland in particular when they were unloading big contracts. They seemed to focus on quantity when trading Chapman and Olson.

 

Maybe their scouts really liked a bunch of players that the services who do the projections used by BTV just didn’t like. Or maybe they just cared about shedding payroll. But those trades were all very lopsided on BTV…

Edited July 19, 2023 by notin

[Randy Red Sox]

one that Blooms seems to like doing. I expect more of the sam this deadline

Yeah, may as well just keep your expiring contracts and stay over the CBT so that your comp picks are much lower. It's a very smart decision!

[notin]

Yeah, may as well just keep your expiring contracts and stay over the CBT so that your comp picks are much lower. It's a very smart decision!

 

Exactly how does that change by trading players on July 15 as opposed to August 1?

 

My point is this isn’t just buyers sitting on their hands. The selling teams have no reason to deal until all the offers are on the table…

Edited July 19, 2023 by notin

[notin]

BTV is a pretty pure calculation, though. It's based on projected WAR and salary, right? And it's only for 1/3 of a season. A star player might have a projected WAR of 1.5 to 2 for 1/3 of a season.

 

What's left out of the calculation is the postseason value of the player acquired. Because that's often a big part of the equation. Like when Theo traded Torres for Chapman.

 

Are you sure they don’t compensate for that?

 

I don’t know either. But if you read Bitzer’s articles and posts, they do adjust values for very marketable players (like Betts) and they also knock down values of some players who require a 40 man roster spot…

[Bellhorn04]

The past few trade deadlines have really diminished the returns that people have expected. You don't get the boon you once did for offloading players.

 

Didn't the Reds get a pretty good haul for Castillo?