Trade Deadline 2023

[mvp 78]

Hmmm, that sounds familiar...it's like Groundhog Year!

 

Last year, they had guys to trade that could have brought back decent talent. This year? Even if they do sell, I don't think there's going to be a lot of prospects coming this way. If you trade Paxton and Duvall does it really bring a great return? Probably not? Jansen? Martin? Would the Sox really deal some of the guys that could bring back a return?

[moonslav59]

I was being facetious. I love where the Sox are right now, but am semi-frantic about the 2d half with all those injuries still on the IL. We not only don't know how good they will be when the return, we don't even know when they'll be back.

 

We can be pretty sure Sale and Houck won't be back until August--and maybe Whitlock too. Meanwhile, however, Pivetta is an option and Kluber--if you believe in that 30 pitch bullpen session--might be.

 

We really need to trade for a SPer now. We might get 3 pitchers back at the deadline. Who carries toAugust 1st?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Sale was healthy, Whitlock was healthy and there was a clear path to the playoffs it would make sense to be a buyer. I just don't really see it this year.

 

It's possible Sale will never be entirely healthy again, even if he has more great months like May 2023. What other $30 million dollar ace breaks a rib throwing a pitch, and a year later breaks a shoulder blade throwing another pitch? From now on, maybe we should just welcome spurts of Sale health as bonus rounds.

 

Whitlock, unfortunately, is turning into another disappointment -- in perspective -- as the first under-30 pitcher Bloom locked up longterm. He's not the budget albatross of a Sale, but he is starting to look like damaged goods already.

 

The Sox can't count on either, nor do they know for sure that Houck will return and not have issues (physical or mental) recovering from his injury. If Boston is serious about making a run this season, the club needs to add more than another bullpen piece that Kenley Jansen is requesting.

 

Trading Paxton would only subtract from the rotation that is already 40% openers. The veteran position players on expiring contracts won't bring back any viable starting pitchers, either.

 

If Bloom really wants to compete in the second half, he's going to have to deal some decent prospects from the minors.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the upper brass thinks we are one or two solid pitchers away from a ring, so I doubt we trade a top 5 prospect. I’m not sure we even trade a 6-12 one, either.

 

I doubt we sell unless we suck the next 3 weeks. If we do, I think we’ll trade Duvall, Paxton and Kike and consider two year older guys like Jansen, Martin and Turner.

[Hugh2]

Last year, they had guys to trade that could have brought back decent talent. This year? Even if they do sell, I don't think there's going to be a lot of prospects coming this way. If you trade Paxton and Duvall does it really bring a great return? Probably not? Jansen? Martin? Would the Sox really deal some of the guys that could bring back a return?

 

We got a top 100 prospect for Andrew Miller, and Jansen has a whole extra year of control. Not a high top 100 guy, but a high-end reliever could get you someone in the 75-100 range.

[moonslav59]

I do think we could have gotten more for Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm than we could get, this year, but adding the 2 year guys would help us get a nicer haul.

 

In theory, we replace them, in kind, next winter, through free agency.

 

Again, I'm not for selling, as of July 11th. Ask me on July 31st.

[Hugh2]

I do think we could have gotten more for Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm than we could get, this year, but adding the 2 year guys would help us get a nicer haul.

 

In theory, we replace them, in kind, next winter, through free agency.

 

Again, I'm not for selling, as of July 11th. Ask me on July 31st.

 

Even then all those guys are rental, you just aren't going to get a huge return for a rental. People will overpay for pitching, but how good did Hill and Eovaldi look leading up to the deadline last year?

 

Bloom has already added depth, you start overflowing with depth then you create a situation where guys start getting picked off your 40 man. Teams seem to demand close to MLB ready prospects nowadays, I'd be ok with higher upside further away guys but teams always value those guys much more than their trade value. For example, Miguel Bleis will get you 10% of what he will get you in two years if he develops as predicted.

[moonslav59]

Even then all those guys are rental, you just aren't going to get a huge return for a rental. People will overpay for pitching, but how good did Hill and Eovaldi look leading up to the deadline last year?

 

Bloom has already added depth, you start overflowing with depth then you create a situation where guys start getting picked off your 40 man. Teams seem to demand close to MLB ready prospects nowadays, I'd be ok with higher upside further away guys but teams always value those guys much more than their trade value. For example, Miguel Bleis will get you 10% of what he will get you in two years if he develops as predicted.

 

We could have gotten a lot for Bogey.

If we could get McGuire for Diekman, I know we could do better with Strahm.

Yes, Nate and Wacha were hurt, but teams would have given us something useful for them and Hill.

JD was a hard one to figure returns.

 

We did not have to trade for 40 man roster or Rule 5 guys.

 

I'm just saying, they were worth more than this year's group of candidates.

 

The two year guys like Jansen and Martin should bring back good returns. Turner's option might hurt his returns.

 

I'm not saying trade em all, if we suck at the deadline, but the idea does have some merit.

[Hugh2]

We could have gotten a lot for Bogey.

If we could get McGuire for Diekman, I know we could do better with Strahm.

Yes, Nate and Wacha were hurt, but teams would have given us something useful for them and Hill.

JD was a hard one to figure returns.

 

We did not have to trade for 40 man roster or Rule 5 guys.

 

I'm just saying, they were worth more than this year's group of candidates.

 

The two year guys like Jansen and Martin should bring back good returns. Turner's option might hurt his returns.

 

I'm not saying trade em all, if we suck at the deadline, but the idea does have some merit.

 

Not as much as you think, as good as Bogey is he was still just a rental.

 

Lets wait and see what premium players bring back this year. Bogey would have got you 1 top prospect in the 50-100 range and maybe another teams top 10. That a nice return, but it would be dwarfed by what you would get if he had 2+ years of control left.

[moonslav59]

Not as much as you think, as good as Bogey is he was still just a rental.

 

Let’s wait and see what premium players bring back this year. Bogey would have got you 1 top prospect in the 50-100 range and maybe another teams top 10. That a nice return, but it would be dwarfed by what you would get if he had 2+ years of control left.

 

 

I guess “a lot” is subjective.

I ‘m not talking Luis Castillo haul but maybe a top 50 prospect or two 51-100’s.

[moonslav59]

These trades were accepted on BTV. (I'm not saying I'd do all of them.)

 

Romero, Wink & Walter for Montgomery & DeJong

Romero & Yorke for Montgomery, De Jong & Andre Pallante

 

Romero, Walter, Murphy & Bonaci for Tim Anderson and Lucas Giolito

 

Duvall & Chang for Brandon Crawford & $4M

 

[vjcsmoke]

The rumor/speculation I'm hearing is massive offer from Red Sox for Ohtani.

 

Basic gist Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Triston Casas for Ohtani.

 

If this deal gets done it would be massive and the Red Sox I think would have to agree a contract with Ohtani for a long term extension first. There's no way you commit that many resources to a guy who just walks at the end of the year.

 

article here:

https://clutchpoints.com/red-sox-perfect-shohei-ohtani-trade-boston-offer-angels-2023-deadline

[Hugh2]

Last year, they had guys to trade that could have brought back decent talent. This year? Even if they do sell, I don't think there's going to be a lot of prospects coming this way. If you trade Paxton and Duvall does it really bring a great return? Probably not? Jansen? Martin? Would the Sox really deal some of the guys that could bring back a return?

 

Paxton could bring back more than any rental we had last year. Duvall not so much

[moonslav59]

The rumor/speculation I'm hearing is massive offer from Red Sox for Ohtani.

 

Basic gist Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Triston Casas for Ohtani.

 

If this deal gets done it would be massive and the Red Sox I think would have to agree a contract with Ohtani for a long term extension first. There's no way you commit that many resources to a guy who just walks at the end of the year.

 

article here:

https://clutchpoints.com/red-sox-perfect-shohei-ohtani-trade-boston-offer-angels-2023-deadline

 

I would not do that deal, even if he extended with us.

 

Just sign the guy as a FA and keep all you listed, if you want him so badly.

[moonslav59]

Paxton could bring back more than any rental we had last year. Duvall not so much

 

Not more than Bogey, IMO.

[Randy Red Sox]

If Bloom makes that trade then he needs to be fired IMMEDATELY !! when are people going to realize that you need to DEVELOP your OWN homegrown pitchers OR trade for COST CONTOLLED PITCHERS UNDER 26 YRS OLD. This was the model in Tampa where this buffoon Bloom came from. Tampa loaded up on young top cost controlled P and got their best results on entry level contracts. Then when they hit 27-29 yrs old they were dealt for more young top cost controlled P. Bloom has done ZERO of this in Boston. Ohtani's best days are in 2024 and MAYBE 2025 and then it is downhill. Let someone else pay the OVERWHELMING price for him !!!

The rumor/speculation I'm hearing is massive offer from Red Sox for Ohtani.

 

Basic gist Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Triston Casas for Ohtani.

 

If this deal gets done it would be massive and the Red Sox I think would have to agree a contract with Ohtani for a long term extension first. There's no way you commit that many resources to a guy who just walks at the end of the year.

 

article here:

https://clutchpoints.com/red-sox-perfect-shohei-ohtani-trade-boston-offer-angels-2023-deadline

[Randy Red Sox]

exaclty

I would not do that deal, even if he extended with us.

 

Just sign the guy as a FA and keep all you listed, if you want him so badly.

[Hugh2]

Not more than Bogey, IMO.

 

We got Eduardo Rodriguez who was ranked 65 at the time for a reliever. There is a huge market inefficiency for pitching at the deadline.

 

Maybe I’m wrong on this but it really feels like teams get desperate and are more inclined to overpay for pitching than they are hitting.

[Hugh2]

That proposal for Ohtani is the dumbest thing I ever heard.

 

Devoid your roster of any offer talent but you get Ohtani. Ask LA how that works out. Ohtani is the best, but you’ll be cheering for his stats and not wins if he doesn’t have a team around him.

 

Just sign Yamamoto, he’s much much younger than Ohtani and will cost 1/3 of him. And he might be the better pitcher going forward.

[Hugh2]

The rumor/speculation I'm hearing is massive offer from Red Sox for Ohtani.

 

Basic gist Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Triston Casas for Ohtani.

 

If this deal gets done it would be massive and the Red Sox I think would have to agree a contract with Ohtani for a long term extension first. There's no way you commit that many resources to a guy who just walks at the end of the year.

 

article here:

https://clutchpoints.com/red-sox-perfect-shohei-ohtani-trade-boston-offer-angels-2023-deadline

 

That’s the price you pay when he has years of team control, not three months.

 

6 years of Mayer, 5 years of Bello, 5 years of Casas, and 6 years of Rafaela, for the chance to pay Ohtani $600 million. You have no short stop, no first baseman, and Bello is starting to look like an ACE. I don’t believe that rumor, that sounds like a fans article.

[Maxbialystock]

The rumor is silly. Stupid deal for Ohtani.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

6 years of Mayer, 5 years of Bello, 5 years of Casas, and 6 years of Rafaela, for the chance to pay Ohtani $600 million. You have no short stop, no first baseman, and Bello is starting to look like an ACE. I don’t believe that rumor, that sounds like a fans article.

 

No shortstop? Haven't you been following the draft thread? No first baseman? Just move one of the 12 new shortstops over -- they're all just "best player available" so can play anywhere.

 

As for an ace, here's a thought: if the Sox were really going to spend $600 million, couldn't they just use those funds instead to sign the next three top free agent starters on the market? Then they'd be investing in an actual rotation...

[Bellhorn04]

The rumor is silly. Stupid deal for Ohtani.

 

It's not actually a rumor, it's just some blogger's wild speculation. The funniest part is when the blogger says "even that may not be enough".

[Bellhorn04]

Ohtani is an incredible talent but a problematic investment, because he carries just as much risk as every other pitcher who's had Tommy John surgery.

[Hugh2]

No shortstop? Haven't you been following the draft thread? No first baseman? Just move one of the 12 new shortstops over -- they're all just "best player available" so can play anywhere.

 

As for an ace, here's a thought: if the Sox were really going to spend $600 million, couldn't they just use those funds instead to sign the next three top free agent starters on the market? Then they'd be investing in an actual rotation...

 

And those guys are 5-6 years away from the majors. So.....are we trying to extend the suck window by another 5 years?

 

Also, most of those guys are not playing shortstop in pro ball.

 

Lastly, that's not an argument for or against the value of that trade.

 

EDIT: I realize you were probably being sarcastic. But it is still a point worth making for other people as well. A kid you draft today isn't going to be on your team for years. It's not like Football were you expect your day 1 picks to be immediate contributors. Even in football, you see BPA, although drafting for need is probably seen a little bit more.

[Hugh2]

No shortstop? Haven't you been following the draft thread? No first baseman? Just move one of the 12 new shortstops over -- they're all just "best player available" so can play anywhere.

 

As for an ace, here's a thought: if the Sox were really going to spend $600 million, couldn't they just use those funds instead to sign the next three top free agent starters on the market? Then they'd be investing in an actual rotation...

 

Also, I agree with your last statement. That's actually exactly what I'd do. I'd love to sign Urias/Yama and have them lead Bello/Whitlock/Houck. If Sale stays healthy by some miracle then that's a bonus.

[Hugh2]

These shorts stops are likely to move off of position.

 

Nazzan Zanatello SS/CF - True potential 5-tool talent, he actually will play SS, but will likely get a lot of time in CF as well. There is some thought that if he physically matures he could move off the position.

Antonio Anderson SS/3B - While he is going to see time at both SS/3B developing most believe he will move off of the position. Most likely his home is at 3B or 2B.

Kristian Campbell - SS/2B/OF - His home is likely 2B or the outfield. Average arm, but tremendous speed.

Justin Riemer - SS/2B - Fringey arm, his best position is likely 2B.

 

Pheonix Call - SS/OF - There's a very good chance he does not even sign, typically a few high school picks are taken after the 10th round which is insurance in case a top pick does not sign (as any pick after the 10th round does not have a bonus slot and therefore you can't lose pool money if you do not sign them there). I think there's a chance he signs, despite my disbelief towards MVP on the matter yesterday. Call it 50/50. If he does, scouts are torn on whether he is best suited for SS or CF.

 

So you could say we drafted five short stops, but the reality is we might have really drafted a third baseman, a shortstop, a second baseman, a centerfielder, and a utility guy.

 

Short stops are the best athletes, and often the best players on a team. Aside from the argument that they neglect pitching there really isn't anything to complain about from the position player perspective. You drafted a catcher with your top pick and the guy who gets big and slow moves to first. There you go....all your bases are covered.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

These shorts stops are likely to move off of position.

 

Nazzan Zanatello SS/CF - True potential 5-tool talent, he actually will play SS, but will likely get a lot of time in CF as well. There is some thought that if he physically matures he could move off the position.

Antonio Anderson SS/3B - While he is going to see time at both SS/3B developing most believe he will move off of the position. Most likely his home is at 3B or 2B.

Kristian Campbell - SS/2B/OF - His home is likely 2B or the outfield. Average arm, but tremendous speed.

Justin Riemer - SS/2B - Fringey arm, his best position is likely 2B.

 

Pheonix Call - SS/OF - There's a very good chance he does not even sign, typically a few high school picks are taken after the 10th round which is insurance in case a top pick does not sign (as any pick after the 10th round does not have a bonus slot and therefore you can't lose pool money if you do not sign them there). I think there's a chance he signs, despite my disbelief towards MVP on the matter yesterday. Call it 50/50. If he does, scouts are torn on whether he is best suited for SS or CF.

 

So you could say we drafted five short stops, but the reality is we might have really drafted a third baseman, a shortstop, a second baseman, a centerfielder, and a utility guy.

 

Short stops are the best athletes, and often the best players on a team. Aside from the argument that they neglect pitching there really isn't anything to complain about from the position player perspective. You drafted a catcher with your top pick and the guy who gets big and slow moves to first. There you go....all your bases are covered.

 

Good rundown. One thing we never hear about BPA is pitchers converting to regular positions. For example, half the Sox' picks yesterday were college pitchers -- were they the best players available or best pitchers available?

 

I say this because growing up, and even through college, the best players -- guys with the arm to play shortstop or catcher -- are almost always also the best pitchers. And they all bat clean-up (and play quarterback and date the prom queen).

 

Wakefield was a home run hitter in college, converted to pitcher in the pros when a coach liked his knuckleball. Still waiting on the Sox to try Dalbec, a collegiate star pitcher, on the mound... in the name of Ohtani, why not?

[Dipre]

Good rundown. One thing we never hear about BPA is pitchers converting to regular positions. For example, half the Sox' picks yesterday were college pitchers -- were they the best players available or best pitchers available?

 

I say this because growing up, and even through college, the best players -- guys with the arm to play shortstop or catcher -- are almost always also the best pitchers. And they all bat clean-up (and play quarterback and date the prom queen).

 

Wakefield was a home run hitter in college, converted to pitcher in the pros when a coach liked his knuckleball. Still waiting on the Sox to try Dalbec, a collegiate star pitcher, on the mound... in the name of Ohtani, why not?

 

In the mid-to-late rounds they need to stop focusing on the best available players, because the amount of money you have to sign all of these picks is limited. So, you have to save money somewhere to sign all of the best picks you made in the earlier rounds.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In the mid-to-late rounds they need to stop focusing on the best available players, because the amount of money you have to sign all of these picks is limited. So, you have to save money somewhere to sign all of the best picks you made in the earlier rounds.

 

Makes sense. So does using those later picks on college pitchers, whose development into a pro won't take as long as a high schooler.